A stochastic frontier production function with flexible risk properties

This paper considers a stochastic frontier production function which has additive, heteroscedastic error structure. The model allows for negative or positive marginal production risks of inputs, as originally proposed by Just and Pope (1978). The technical efficiencies of individual firms in the sample are a function of the levels of the input variables in the stochastic frontier, in addition to the technical inefficiency effects. These are two features of the model which are not exhibited by the commonly used stochastic frontiers with multiplicative error structures, An empirical application is presented using cross-sectional data on Ethiopian peasant farmers. The null hypothesis of no technical inefficiencies of production among these farmers is accepted. Further, the flexible risk models do not fit the data on peasant farmers as well as the traditional stochastic frontier model with multiplicative error structure.

Characterizing QALYs under a general rank dependent utility model

This paper provides a characterization of QALYs, the most important outcome measure in medical decision making, in the context of a general rank dependent utility model. We show that both for chronic and for nonchronic health states the characterization of QALYs depends on intuitive conditions. This facilitates the assessment of the validity of QALYs in rank dependent non-expected utility theories and a comparison with other utility based measures of health.

Improvement of Insulin Resistance and Reduction of Cardiovascular Risk Among Obese Patients with Type 2 Diabetes with the Duodenojejunal Bypass Liner

This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the duodenojejunal bypass liner (DJBL) in the improvement of insulin resistance and reduction of cardiovascular risk among morbidly obese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, using the triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol ratio, percentage of weight loss, and glycemic control. We used the TG/HDL ratio with a cutoff value of 3.5 to identify patients with insulin resistance. The value of the initial ratio was compared with the ratio obtained 6 months after implantation to evaluate whether an improvement in insulin resistance occurred. We also evaluated the improvement of glycated hemoglobin levels and the weight loss resulted from the use of the device and correlated that with the improvement of the TG/HDL ratio. All patients implanted with the device presented a statistically significant reduction of the HbA1c levels, with most patients (70.3%) obtaining diabetes control with HbA1c levels lower than 7% at the end of the study. All patients also presented a significant weight reduction, with an average loss of 12.6% of their initial weight. We observed an important improvement in insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome, with a significant reduction of the TG/HDL ratio from 5.75 to 4.36 (p < 0.001) and 42.6% of the patients presenting a TG/HDL ratio lower than 3.5 at the end of the study. The DJBL, when used for a period of 6 months, is effective in the control of diabetes, weight loss, improvement of insulin resistance, and decrease of cardiovascular risk among morbidly obese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Risk Factors for Visual Field Progression in Treated Glaucoma

Objective: To determine intraocular pressure (IOP)-dependent and IOP-independent variables associated with visual field (VF) progression in treated glaucoma. Design: Retrospective cohort of the Glaucoma Progression Study. Methods: Consecutive, treated glaucoma patients with repeatable VF loss who had 8 or more VF examinations of either eye, using the Swedish Interactive Threshold Algorithm (24-2 SITA-Standard, Humphrey Field Analyzer II; Carl Zeiss Meditec, Inc, Dublin, California), during the period between January 1999 and September 2009 were included. Visual field progression was evaluated using automated pointwise linear regression. Evaluated data included age, sex, race, central corneal thickness, baseline VF mean deviation, mean follow-up IOP, peak IOP, IOP fluctuation, a detected disc hemorrhage, and presence of beta-zone parapapillary atrophy. Results: We selected 587 eyes of 587 patients (mean [SD] age, 64.9 [13.0] years). The mean (SD) number of VFs was 11.1 (3.0), spanning a mean (SD) of 6.4 (1.7) years. In the univariable model, older age (odds ratio [OR], 1.19 per decade; P = .01), baseline diagnosis of exfoliation syndrome (OR, 1.79; P = .01), decreased central corneal thickness (OR, 1.38 per 40 mu m thinner; P < .01), a detected disc hemorrhage (OR, 2.31; P < .01), presence of beta-zone parapapillary atrophy (OR, 2.17; P < .01), and all IOP parameters (mean follow-up, peak, and fluctuation; P < .01) were associated with increased risk of VF progression. In the multivariable model, peak IOP (OR, 1.13; P < .01), thinner central corneal thickness (OR, 1.45 per 40 mu m thinner; P < .01), a detected disc hemorrhage (OR, 2.59; P < .01), and presence of beta-zone parapapillary atrophy (OR, 2.38; P < .01) were associated with VF progression. Conclusions: IOP-dependent and IOP-independent risk factors affect disease progression in treated glaucoma. Peak IOP is a better predictor of progression than is IOP mean or fluctuation.

Model-Predicted Performance of Second-Trimester Down Syndrome Screening With Sonographic Prenasal Thickness

Objective. The purpose of this study was to estimate the Down syndrome detection and false-positive rates for second-trimester sonographic prenasal thickness (PT) measurement alone and in combination with other markers. Methods. Multivariate log Gaussian modeling was performed using numerical integration. Parameters for the PT distribution, in multiples of the normal gestation-specific median (MoM), were derived from 105 Down syndrome and 1385 unaffected pregnancies scanned at 14 to 27 weeks. The data included a new series of 25 cases and 535 controls combined with 4 previously published series. The means were estimated by the median and the SDs by the 10th to 90th range divided by 2.563. Parameters for other markers were obtained from the literature. Results. A log Gaussian model fitted the distribution of PT values well in Down syndrome and unaffected pregnancies. The distribution parameters were as follows: Down syndrome, mean, 1.334 MoM; log(10) SD, 0.0772; unaffected pregnancies, 0.995 and 0.0752, respectively. The model-predicted detection rates for 1%, 3%, and 5% false-positive rates for PT alone were 35%, 51%, and 60%, respectively. The addition of PT to a 4 serum marker protocol increased detection by 14% to 18% compared with serum alone. The simultaneous sonographic measurement of PT and nasal bone length increased detection by 19% to 26%, and with a third sonographic marker, nuchal skin fold, performance was comparable with first-trimester protocols. Conclusions. Second-trimester screening with sonographic PT and serum markers is predicted to have a high detection rate, and further sonographic markers could perform comparably with first-trimester screening protocols.

Application of fibrin glue in microvascular anastomoses: Comparative analysis with the conventional suture technique using a free flap model

Background: Several studies have already reported the utilization of fibrin glue in microvascular anastomoses to minimize the number of sutures and to decrease the operative time. Despite the good results obtained in most of these experiments, its clinical application has not launched. The aim of this study was to clarify the controversies around the safeness of fibrin glue application in microvascular anastomoses, and also to demonstrate the potential benefits of fibrin glue application in a realistic free flap model. Methods: Twenty-seven rabbits were used in this study The experimental model consisted of a free groin flap transfer to the anterior cervical region. The flap`s circulation was restored by means of an end-to-side anastomosis between the femoral and carotid arteries, and an end-to-end anastomosis between the femoral and external jugular veins. The animals were divided into two groups (n = 10) according to the anastomosis technique: Group I (conventional suture) and group 11 (fibrin glue). Results: The number of sutures required to complete the arterial and venous anastomoses was reduced in 39 and 37% in group 11, respectively. Despite this reduction, the anastomoses maintained adequate patency rates and mechanical strength. Both arterial and venous anastomoses benefited from fibrin glue application, which made them easier and faster to perform. The flaps` ischemic time and the total operative time were also significantly shortened. Conclusions: In this study, the application of fibrin glue in microvascular anastomoses was safe and reliable. The risk-benefit ratio of fibrin glue application in microvascular anastomoses is favorable for its use. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Early identification of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome by use of a validated prediction model

Objective: To identify prediction factors for the development of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome (LPHS). Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study. The study comprised of 203 patients, aged >= 14 years, admitted with complications of the severe form of leptospirosis at the Emilio Ribas Institute of Infectology (Sao Paulo, Brazil) between 1998 and 2004. Laboratory and demographic data were obtained and the severity of illness score and involvement of the lungs and others organs were determined. Logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors of LPHS. A prospective validation cohort of 97 subjects with severe form of leptospirosis admitted at the same hospital between 2004 and 2006 was used to independently evaluate the predictive value of the model. Results: The overall mortality rate was 7.9%. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that five factors were independently associated with the development of LPHS: serum potassium (mmol/L) (OR = 2.6; 95% CI = 1.1-5.9); serum creatinine (mmol/L) (OR = 1.2; 95% CI = 1.1-1.4); respiratory rate (breaths/min) (OR = 1.1; 95% CI = 1.1-1.2); presenting shock (OR = 69.9; 95% CI = 20.1-236.4), and Glasgow Coma Scale Score (GCS) < 15 (OR = 7.7; 95% CI = 1.3-23.0). We used these findings to calculate the risk of LPHS by the use of a spreadsheet. In the validation cohort, the equation classified correctly 92% of patients (Kappa statistic = 0.80). Conclusions: We developed and validated a multivariate model for predicting LPHS. This tool should prove useful in identifying LPHS patients, allowing earlier management and thereby reducing mortality. (C) 2009 The British Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intravenous glutamine decreases lung and distal organ injury in an experimental model of abdominal sepsis

Introduction The protective effect of glutamine, as a pharmacological agent against lung injury, has been reported in experimental sepsis; however, its efficacy at improving oxygenation and lung mechanics, attenuating diaphragm and distal organ injury has to be better elucidated. In the present study, we tested the hypothesis that a single early intravenous dose of glutamine was associated not only with the improvement of lung morpho-function, but also the reduction of the inflammatory process and epithelial cell apoptosis in kidney, liver, and intestine villi. Methods Seventy-two Wistar rats were randomly assigned into four groups. Sepsis was induced by cecal ligation and puncture surgery (CLP), while a sham operated group was used as control (C). One hour after surgery, C and CLP groups were further randomized into subgroups receiving intravenous saline (1 ml, SAL) or glutamine (0.75 g/kg, Gln). At 48 hours, animals were anesthetized, and the following parameters were measured: arterial oxygenation, pulmonary mechanics, and diaphragm, lung, kidney, liver, and small intestine villi histology. At 18 and 48 hours, Cytokine-Induced Neutrophil Chemoattractant (CINC)-1, interleukin (IL)-6 and 10 were quantified in bronchoalveolar and peritoneal lavage fluids (BALF and PLF, respectively). Results CLP induced: a) deterioration of lung mechanics and gas exchange; b) ultrastructural changes of lung parenchyma and diaphragm; and c) lung and distal organ epithelial cell apoptosis. Glutamine improved survival rate, oxygenation and lung mechanics, minimized pulmonary and diaphragmatic changes, attenuating lung and distal organ epithelial cell apoptosis. Glutamine increased IL-10 in peritoneal lavage fluid at 18 hours and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid at 48 hours, but decreased CINC-1 and IL-6 in BALF and PLF only at 18 hours. Conclusions In an experimental model of abdominal sepsis, a single intravenous dose of glutamine administered after sepsis induction may modulate the inflammatory process reducing not only the risk of lung injury, but also distal organ impairment. These results suggest that intravenous glutamine may be a potentially beneficial therapy for abdominal sepsis.

Individual risk prediction of nodal and distant metastasis for patients with typical bronchial carcinoid tumors

Objective: Bronchial typical carcinoid tumors are tow-grade malignancies. However, metastases are diagnosed in some patients. Predicting the individual risk of these metastases to determine patients eligible for a radical lymphadenectomy and patients to be followed-up because of distant metastasis risk is relevant. Our objective was to screen for predictive criteria of bronchial typical carcinoid tumor aggressiveness based on a logistic regression model using clinical, pathological and biomolecular data. Methods: A multicenter retrospective cohort study, including 330 consecutive patients operated on for bronchial typical carcinoid tumors and followed-up during a period more than 10 years in two university hospitals was performed. Selected data to predict the individual risk for both nodal and distant metastasis were: age, gender, TNM staging, tumor diameter and location (central/peripheral), tumor immunostaining index of p53 and Ki67, Bcl2 and the extracellular density of neoformed microvessels and of collagen/elastic extracellular fibers. Results: Nodal and distant metastasis incidence was 11% and 5%, respectively. Univariate analysis identified all the studied biomarkers as related to nodal metastasis. Multivariate analysis identified a predictive variable for nodal metastasis: neo angiogenesis, quantified by the neoformed pathological microvessels density. Distant metastasis was related to mate gender. Discussion: Predictive models based on clinical and biomolecular data could be used to predict individual risk for metastasis. Patients under a high individual risk for lymph node metastasis should be considered as candidates to mediastinal lymphadenectomy. Those under a high risk of distant metastasis should be followed-up as having an aggressive disease. Conclusion: Individual risk prediction of bronchial typical carcinoid tumor metastasis for patients operated on can be calculated in function of biomolecular data. Prediction models can detect high-risk patients and help surgeons to identify patients requiring radical lymphadenectomy and help oncologists to identify those as having an aggressive disease requiring prolonged follow-up. (C) 2008 European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The risk of chikungunya fever in a dengue-endemic area

Background. Chikungunya, an alphavirus of the Togaviridae family, causes a febrile disease transmitted to humans by the bite of infected Aedes mosquitoes. This infection is reaching endemic levels in many Southeast Asian countries. Symptoms include sudden onset of fever, chills, headache, nausea, vomiting, joint pain with or without swelling, low back pain, and rash. According to the World Health Organization, there are 2 billion people living in Aedes-infested areas. In addition, traveling to these areas is popular, making the potential risk of infections transmitted by the bite of infected Aedes mosquitoes very high. Methods. We proposed a mathematical model to estimate the risk of acquiring chikungunya fever in an Aedes-infested area by taking the prevalence of dengue fever into account. The basic reproduction number for chikungunya fever R-0chik can be written as a function of the basic reproduction number of dengue R-0dengue by calculating the ratio R-0chik/R-0dengue. From R-0chik, we estimated the force of infection and the risk of acquiring the disease both for local residents of a dengue-endemic area and for travelers to this area. Results. We calculated that R-0chik is 64.4% that of R-0dengue. The model was applied to a hypothetical situation, namely, estimating the individual risk of acquiring chikungunya fever in a dengue-endemic area, both for local inhabitants (22% in steady state) and for visiting travelers (from 0.31% to 1.23% depending on the time spent in the area). Conclusions. The method proposed based on the output of a dynamical model is innovative and provided an estimation of the risk of infection, both for local inhabitants and for visiting travelers.

Mucosal leishmaniasis: description of case management approaches and analysis of risk factors for treatment failure in a cohort of 140 patients in Brazil

Background Mucosal leishmaniasis is caused mainly by Leishmania braziliensis and it occurs months or years after cutaneous lesions. This progressive disease destroys cartilages and osseous structures from face, pharynx and larynx. Objective and methods The aim of this study was to analyse the significance of clinical and epidemiological findings, diagnosis and treatment with the outcome and recurrence of mucosal leishmaniasis through binary logistic regression model from 140 patients with mucosal leishmaniasis from a Brazilian centre. Results The median age of patients was 57.5 and systemic arterial hypertension was the most prevalent secondary disease found in patients with mucosal leishmaniasis (43%). Diabetes, chronic nephropathy and viral hepatitis, allergy and coagulopathy were found in less than 10% of patients. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection was found in 7 of 140 patients (5%). Rhinorrhea (47%) and epistaxis (75%) were the most common symptoms. N-methyl-glucamine showed a cure rate of 91% and recurrence of 22%. Pentamidine showed a similar rate of cure (91%) and recurrence (25%). Fifteen patients received itraconazole with a cure rate of 73% and recurrence of 18%. Amphotericin B was the drug used in 30 patients with 82% of response with a recurrence rate of 7%. The binary logistic regression analysis demonstrated that systemic arterial hypertension and HIV infection were associated with failure of the treatment (P < 0.05). Conclusion The current first-line mucosal leishmaniasis therapy shows an adequate cure but later recurrence. HIV infection and systemic arterial hypertension should be investigated before start the treatment of mucosal leishmaniasis. Conflicts of interest The authors are not part of any associations or commercial relationships that might represent conflicts of interest in the writing of this study (e.g. pharmaceutical stock ownership, consultancy, advisory board membership, relevant patents, or research funding).

A practical approach to assess depression risk and to guide risk reduction strategies in later life

Background: Many factors have been associated with the onset and maintenance of depressive symptoms in later life, although this knowledge is yet to be translated into significant health gains for the population. This study gathered information about common modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors for depression with the aim of developing a practical probabilistic model of depression that can be used to guide risk reduction strategies. \Methods: A cross-sectional study was undertaken of 20,677 community-dwelling Australians aged 60 years or over in contact with their general practitioner during the preceding 12 months. Prevalent depression (minor or major) according to the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) assessment was the main outcome of interest. Other measured exposures included self-reported age, gender, education, loss of mother or father before age 15 years, physical or sexual abuse before age 15 years, marital status, financial stress, social support, smoking and alcohol use, physical activity, obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and prevalent cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases and cancer. Results: The mean age of participants was 71.7 +/- 7.6 years and 57.9% were women. Depression was present in 1665 (8.0%) of our subjects. Multivariate logistic regression showed depression was independently associated with age older than 75 years, childhood adverse experiences, adverse lifestyle practices (smoking, risk alcohol use, physical inactivity), intermediate health hazards (obesity, diabetes and hypertension), comorbid medical conditions (clinical history of coronary heart disease, stroke, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, emphysema or cancers), and social or financial strain. We stratified the exposures to build a matrix that showed that the probability of depression increased progressively with the accumulation of risk factors, from less than 3% for those with no adverse factors to more than 80% for people reporting the maximum number of risk factors. Conclusions: Our probabilistic matrix can be used to estimate depression risk and to guide the introduction of risk reduction strategies. Future studies should now aim to clarify whether interventions designed to mitigate the impact of risk factors can change the prevalence and incidence of depression in later life.

Twelve-Month Prevalence of and Risk Factors for Suicide Attempts in the World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys

Objective: Although suicide is a leading cause of death worldwide, clinicians and researchers lack a data-driven method to assess the risk of suicide attempts. This study reports the results of an analysis of a large cross-national epidemiologic survey database that estimates the 12-month prevalence of suicidal behaviors, identifies risk factors for suicide attempts, and combines these factors to create a risk index for 12-month suicide attempts separately for developed and developing countries. Method: Data come from the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys (conducted 2001-2007), in which 108,705 adults from 21 countries were interviewed using the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview. The survey assessed suicidal behaviors and potential risk factors across multiple domains, including socio-demographic characteristics, parent psychopathology, childhood adversities, DSM-IV disorders, and history of suicidal behavior. Results: Twelve-month prevalence estimates of suicide ideation, plans, and attempts are 2.0%, 0.6%, and 0.3%, respectively, for developed countries and 2.1%, 0.7%, and 0.4%, respectively, for developing countries. Risk factors for suicidal behaviors in both developed and developing countries include female sex, younger age, lower education and income, unmarried status, unemployment, parent psychopathology, childhood adversities, and presence of diverse 12-month DSM-IV mental disorders. Combining risk factors from multiple domains produced risk indices that accurately predicted 12-month suicide attempts in both developed and developing countries (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.74-0.80). Conclusions: Suicidal behaviors occur at similar rates in both developed and developing countries. Risk indices assessing multiple domains can predict suicide attempts with fairly good accuracy and may be useful in aiding clinicians in the prediction of these behaviors. J Clin Psychiatry 2010;71(12):1617-1628 (C) Copyright 2010 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Bilevel vs ICU Ventilators Providing Noninvasive Ventilation: Effect of System Leaks A COPD Lung Model Comparison

Background: Noninvasive positive-pressure ventilation (NPPV) modes are currently available on bilevel and ICU ventilators. However, little data comparing the performance of the NPPV modes on these ventilators are available. Methods: In an experimental bench study, the ability of nine ICU ventilators to function in the presence of leaks was compared with a bilevel ventilator using the IngMar ASL5000 lung simulator (IngMar Medical; Pittsburgh, PA) set at a compliance of 60 mL/cm H(2)O, an inspiratory resistance of 10 cm H(2)O/L/s, an expiratory resistance of 20 cm H(2)O/L/s, and a respiratory rate of 15 breaths/min. All of the ventilators were set at 12 cm H(2)O pressure support and 5 cm H(2)O positive end-expiratory pressure. The data were collected at baseline and at three customized leaks. Main results: At baseline, all of the ventilators were able to deliver adequate tidal volumes, to maintain airway pressure, and to synchronize with the simulator, without missed efforts or auto-triggering. As the leak was increased, all of the ventilators (except the Vision [Respironics; Murrysville, PA] and Servo I [Maquet; Solna, Sweden]) needed adjustment of sensitivity or cycling criteria to maintain adequate ventilation, and some transitioned to backup ventilation. Significant differences in triggering and cycling were observed between the Servo I and the Vision ventilators. Conclusions: The Vision and Servo I were the only ventilators that required no adjustments as they adapted to increasing leaks. There were differences in performance between these two ventilators, although the clinical significance of these differences is unclear. Clinicians should be aware that in the presence of leaks, most ICU ventilators require adjustments to maintain an adequate tidal volume. (CHEST 2009; 136:448-456)

Risk Score to Predict the Outcome of Patients with Cerebral Vein and Dural Sinus Thrombosis

Background: Around 15% of patients die or become dependent after cerebral vein and dural sinus thrombosis (CVT). Method: We used the International Study on Cerebral Vein and Dural Sinus Thrombosis (ISCVT) sample (624 patients, with a median follow-up time of 478 days) to develop a Cox proportional hazards regression model to predict outcome, dichotomised by a modified Rankin Scale score > 2. From the model hazard ratios, a risk score was derived and a cut-off point selected. The model and the score were tested in 2 validation samples: (1) the prospective Cerebral Venous Thrombosis Portuguese Collaborative Study Group (VENO-PORT) sample with 91 patients; (2) a sample of 169 consecutive CVT patients admitted to 5 ISCVT centres after the end of the ISCVT recruitment period. Sensitivity, specificity, c statistics and overall efficiency to predict outcome at 6 months were calculated. Results: The model (hazard ratios: malignancy 4.53; coma 4.19; thrombosis of the deep venous system 3.03; mental status disturbance 2.18; male gender 1.60; intracranial haemorrhage 1.42) had overall efficiencies of 85.1, 84.4 and 90.0%, in the derivation sample and validation samples 1 and 2, respectively. Using the risk score (range from 0 to 9) with a cut-off of 6 3 points, overall efficiency was 85.4, 84.4 and 90.1% in the derivation sample and validation samples 1 and 2, respectively. Sensitivity and specificity in the combined samples were 96.1 and 13.6%, respectively. Conclusions: The CVT risk score has a good estimated overall rate of correct classifications in both validation samples, but its specificity is low. It can be used to avoid unnecessary or dangerous interventions in low-risk patients, and may help to identify high-risk CVT patients. Copyright (C) 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel