Evaluation of flood risk in response to climate variability

Standard procedures for forecasting flood risk (Bulletin 17B) assume annual maximum flood (AMF) series are stationary, meaning the distribution of flood flows is not significantly affected by climatic trends/cycles, or anthropogenic activities within the watershed. Historical flood events are therefore considered representative of future flood occurrences, and the risk associated with a given flood magnitude is modeled as constant over time. However, in light of increasing evidence to the contrary, this assumption should be reconsidered, especially as the existence of nonstationarity in AMF series can have significant impacts on planning and management of water resources and relevant infrastructure. Research presented in this thesis quantifies the degree of nonstationarity evident in AMF series for unimpaired watersheds throughout the contiguous U.S., identifies meteorological, climatic, and anthropogenic causes of this nonstationarity, and proposes an extension of the Bulletin 17B methodology which yields forecasts of flood risk that reflect climatic influences on flood magnitude. To appropriately forecast flood risk, it is necessary to consider the driving causes of nonstationarity in AMF series. Herein, large-scale climate patterns—including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)—are identified as influencing factors on flood magnitude at numerous stations across the U.S. Strong relationships between flood magnitude and associated precipitation series were also observed for the majority of sites analyzed in the Upper Midwest and Northeastern regions of the U.S. Although relationships between flood magnitude and associated temperature series are not apparent, results do indicate that temperature is highly correlated with the timing of flood peaks. Despite consideration of watersheds classified as unimpaired, analyses also suggest that identified change-points in AMF series are due to dam construction, and other types of regulation and diversion. Although not explored herein, trends in AMF series are also likely to be partially explained by changes in land use and land cover over time. Results obtained herein suggest that improved forecasts of flood risk may be obtained using a simple modification of the Bulletin 17B framework, wherein the mean and standard deviation of the log-transformed flows are modeled as functions of climate indices associated with oceanic-atmospheric patterns (e.g. AMO, ENSO, NAO, and PDO) with lead times between 3 and 9 months. Herein, one-year ahead forecasts of the mean and standard deviation, and subsequently flood risk, are obtained by applying site specific multivariate regression models, which reflect the phase and intensity of a given climate pattern, as well as possible impacts of coupling of the climate cycles. These forecasts of flood risk are compared with forecasts derived using the existing Bulletin 17B model; large differences in the one-year ahead forecasts are observed in some locations. The increased knowledge of the inherent structure of AMF series and an improved understanding of physical and/or climatic causes of nonstationarity gained from this research should serve as insight for the formulation of a physical-casual based statistical model, incorporating both climatic variations and human impacts, for flood risk over longer planning horizons (e.g., 10-, 50, 100-years) necessary for water resources design, planning, and management.

Different response to eccentric and concentric training in older men and women

Sarcopenia is the age-related loss of muscle mass and strength and has been associated with an increased risk of falling and the development of metabolic diseases. Various training protocols, nutritional and hormonal interventions have been proposed to prevent sarcopenia. This study explores the potential of continuous eccentric exercise to retard age-related loss of muscle mass and function. Elderly men and women (80.6 +/- 3.5 years) were randomized to one of three training interventions demanding a training effort of two sessions weekly for 12 weeks: cognitive training (CT; n = 16), conventional resistance training (RET; n = 23) and eccentric ergometer training (EET; n = 23). Subjects were tested for functional parameters and body composition. Biopsies were collected from M. vastus lateralis before and after the intervention for the assessment of fiber size and composition. Maximal isometric leg extension strength (MEL: +8.4 +/- 1.7%) and eccentric muscle coordination (COORD: -43 +/- 4%) were significantly improved with EET but not with RET (MEL: +2.3 +/- 2.0%; COORD: -13 +/- 3%) and CT (MEL: -2.3 +/- 2.5%; COORD: -12 +/- 5%), respectively. We observed a loss of body fat (-5.0 +/- 1.1%) and thigh fat (-6.9 +/- 1.5%) in EET subjects only. Relative thigh lean mass increased with EET (+2.5 +/- 0.6%) and RET (+2.0 +/- 0.3%) and correlated negatively with type IIX/type II muscle fiber ratios. It was concluded that both RET and EET are beneficial for the elderly with regard to muscle functional and structural improvements but differ in their spectrum of effects. A training frequency of only two sessions per week seems to be the lower limit for a training stimulus to reveal measurable benefits.

Transforming growth factor-beta2 upregulates sphingosine kinase-1 activity, which in turn attenuates the fibrotic response to TGF-beta2 by impeding CTGF expression

Transforming growth factor-beta2 (TGF-beta2) stimulates the expression of pro-fibrotic connective tissue growth factor (CTGF) during the course of renal disease. Because sphingosine kinase-1 (SK-1) activity is also upregulated by TGF-beta, we studied its effect on CTGF expression and on the development of renal fibrosis. When TGF-beta2 was added to an immortalized human podocyte cell line we found that it activated the promoter of SK-1, resulting in upregulation of its mRNA and protein expression. Further, depletion of SK-1 by small interfering RNA or its pharmacological inhibition led to accelerated CTGF expression in the podocytes. Over-expression of SK-1 reduced CTGF induction, an effect mediated by intracellular sphingosine-1-phosphate. In vivo, SK-1 expression was also increased in the podocytes of kidney sections of patients with diabetic nephropathy when compared to normal sections of kidney obtained from patients with renal cancer. Similarly, in a mouse model of streptozotocin-induced diabetic nephropathy, SK-1 and CTGF were upregulated in podocytes. In SK-1 deficient mice, exacerbation of disease was detected by increased albuminuria and CTGF expression when compared to wild-type mice. Thus, SK-1 activity has a protective role in the fibrotic process and its deletion or inhibition aggravates fibrotic disease.

The STEREO/PLASTIC response to solar wind ions (Flight measurements and models)

The Plasma and Supra-Thermal Ion Composition (PLASTIC) instrument is one of four experiment packages on board of the two identical STEREO spacecraft A and B, which were successfully launched from Cape Canaveral on 26 October 2006. During the two years of the nominal STEREO mission, PLASTIC is providing us with the plasma characteristics of protons, alpha particles, and heavy ions. PLASTIC will also provide key diagnostic measurements in the form of the mass and charge state composition of heavy ions. Three measurements (E/qk, time of flight, ESSD) from the pulse height raw data are used to characterize the solar wind ions from the solar wind sector, and part of the suprathermal particles from the wide-angle partition with respect to mass, atomic number and charge state. In this paper, we present a new method for flight data analysis based on simulations of the PLASTIC response to solar wind ions. We present the response of the entrance system / energy analyzer in an analytical form. Based on stopping power theory, we use an analytical expression for the energy loss of the ions when they pass through a thin carbon foil. This allows us to model analytically the response of the time of flight mass spectrometer to solar wind ions. Thus we present a new version of the analytical response of the solid state detectors to solar wind ions. Various important parameters needed for our models were derived, based on calibration data and on the first flight measurements obtained from STEREO-A. We used information from each measured event that is registered in full resolution in the Pulse Height Analysis words and we derived a new algorithm for the analysis of both existing and future data sets of a similar nature which was tested and works well. This algorithm allows us to obtain, for each measured event, the mass, atomic number and charge state in the correct physical units. Finally, an important criterion was developed for filtering our Fe raw flight data set from the pulse height data without discriminating charge states.

DAPK2 positively regulates motility of neutrophils and eosinophils in response to intermediary chemoattractants

The tight regulation of granulocyte chemotaxis is crucial for initiation and resolution of inflammation. Here, we show that DAPK2, a Ca(2+)/CaM-sensitive serine/threonine kinase known to modulate cell death in various cell types, is a novel regulator of migration in granulocytes. We demonstrate that human neutrophils and eosinophils express DAPK2 but unlike other leukocytes, no DAPK1 or DAPK3 protein. When DAPK activities were blocked by inhibitors, we found that neither granulocyte lifespan nor phagocytosis was affected. However, such pharmacological inactivation of DAPK activity abolished motility of granulocytes in response to intermediary but not end-target chemoattractants ex vivo. The defect in chemotaxis in DAPK2-inactive granulocytes is likely a result of reduced polarization of the cells, mediated by a lack of MLC phosphorylation, resulting in radial F-actin and pseudopod formation. As neutrophils treated with DAPKi also showed reduced recruitment to the site of inflammation in a mouse peritonitis model, DAPK2 may be a novel target for anti-inflammatory therapies.

EGFR exon-level biomarkers of the response to bevacizumab/erlotinib in non-small cell lung cancer

Activating epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutations are recognized biomarkers for patients with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs). EGFR TKIs can also have activity against NSCLC without EGFR mutations, requiring the identification of additional relevant biomarkers. Previous studies on tumor EGFR protein levels and EGFR gene copy number revealed inconsistent results. The aim of the study was to identify novel biomarkers of the response to TKIs in NSCLC by investigating whole genome expression at the exon-level. We used exon arrays and clinical samples from a previous trial (SAKK19/05) to investigate the expression variations at the exon-level of 3 genes potentially playing a key role in modulating treatment response: EGFR, V-Ki-ras2 Kirsten rat sarcoma viral oncogene homolog (KRAS) and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGFA). We identified the expression of EGFR exon 18 as a new predictive marker for patients with untreated metastatic NSCLC treated with bevacizumab and erlotinib in the first line setting. The overexpression of EGFR exon 18 in tumor was significantly associated with tumor shrinkage, independently of EGFR mutation status. A similar significant association could be found in blood samples. In conclusion, exonic EGFR expression particularly in exon 18 was found to be a relevant predictive biomarker for response to bevacizumab and erlotinib. Based on these results, we propose a new model of EGFR testing in tumor and blood.

Differential dynamic properties of scleroderma fibroblasts in response to perturbation of environmental stimuli.

Diseases are believed to arise from dysregulation of biological systems (pathways) perturbed by environmental triggers. Biological systems as a whole are not just the sum of their components, rather ever-changing, complex and dynamic systems over time in response to internal and external perturbation. In the past, biologists have mainly focused on studying either functions of isolated genes or steady-states of small biological pathways. However, it is systems dynamics that play an essential role in giving rise to cellular function/dysfunction which cause diseases, such as growth, differentiation, division and apoptosis. Biological phenomena of the entire organism are not only determined by steady-state characteristics of the biological systems, but also by intrinsic dynamic properties of biological systems, including stability, transient-response, and controllability, which determine how the systems maintain their functions and performance under a broad range of random internal and external perturbations. As a proof of principle, we examine signal transduction pathways and genetic regulatory pathways as biological systems. We employ widely used state-space equations in systems science to model biological systems, and use expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms and Kalman filter to estimate the parameters in the models. We apply the developed state-space models to human fibroblasts obtained from the autoimmune fibrosing disease, scleroderma, and then perform dynamic analysis of partial TGF-beta pathway in both normal and scleroderma fibroblasts stimulated by silica. We find that TGF-beta pathway under perturbation of silica shows significant differences in dynamic properties between normal and scleroderma fibroblasts. Our findings may open a new avenue in exploring the functions of cells and mechanism operative in disease development.

Atmospheric CO₂ response to volcanic eruptions: The role of ENSO, season, and variability

Tropical explosive volcanism is one of the most important natural factors that significantly impact the climate system and the carbon cycle on annual to multi-decadal time scales. The three largest explosive eruptions in the last 50�years�Agung, El Chichón, and Pinatubo�occurred in spring/summer in conjunction with El Niño events and left distinct negative signals in the observational temperature and CO2 records. However, confounding factors such as seasonal variability and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may obscure the forcing-response relationship. We determine for the first time the extent to which initial conditions, i.e., season and phase of the ENSO, and internal variability influence the coupled climate and carbon cycle response to volcanic forcing and how this affects estimates of the terrestrial and oceanic carbon sinks. Ensemble simulations with the Earth System Model (Climate System Model 1.4-carbon) predict that the atmospheric CO2 response is �60 larger when a volcanic eruption occurs during El Niño and in winter than during La Niña conditions. Our simulations suggest that the Pinatubo eruption contributed 11�±�6 to the 25�Pg terrestrial carbon sink inferred over the decade 1990�1999 and �2�±�1 to the 22�Pg oceanic carbon sink. In contrast to recent claims, trends in the airborne fraction of anthropogenic carbon cannot be detected when accounting for the decadal-scale influence of explosive volcanism and related uncertainties. Our results highlight the importance of considering the role of natural variability in the carbon cycle for interpretation of observations and for data-model intercomparison.

Large-scale temperature response to external forcing in simulations and reconstructions of the last millennium

Understanding natural climate variability and its driving factors is crucial to assessing future climate change. Therefore, comparing proxy-based climate reconstructions with forcing factors as well as comparing these with paleoclimate model simulations is key to gaining insights into the relative roles of internal versus forced variability. A review of the state of modelling of the climate of the last millennium prior to the CMIP5–PMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5–Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3) coordinated effort is presented and compared to the available temperature reconstructions. Simulations and reconstructions broadly agree on reproducing the major temperature changes and suggest an overall linear response to external forcing on multidecadal or longer timescales. Internal variability is found to have an important influence at hemispheric and global scales. The spatial distribution of simulated temperature changes during the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age disagrees with that found in the reconstructions. Thus, either internal variability is a possible major player in shaping temperature changes through the millennium or the model simulations have problems realistically representing the response pattern to external forcing. A last millennium transient climate response (LMTCR) is defined to provide a quantitative framework for analysing the consistency between simulated and reconstructed climate. Beyond an overall agreement between simulated and reconstructed LMTCR ranges, this analysis is able to single out specific discrepancies between some reconstructions and the ensemble of simulations. The disagreement is found in the cases where the reconstructions show reduced covariability with external forcings or when they present high rates of temperature change.

Differential dynamic properties of scleroderma fibroblasts in response to perturbation of environmental stimuli.

Diseases are believed to arise from dysregulation of biological systems (pathways) perturbed by environmental triggers. Biological systems as a whole are not just the sum of their components, rather ever-changing, complex and dynamic systems over time in response to internal and external perturbation. In the past, biologists have mainly focused on studying either functions of isolated genes or steady-states of small biological pathways. However, it is systems dynamics that play an essential role in giving rise to cellular function/dysfunction which cause diseases, such as growth, differentiation, division and apoptosis. Biological phenomena of the entire organism are not only determined by steady-state characteristics of the biological systems, but also by intrinsic dynamic properties of biological systems, including stability, transient-response, and controllability, which determine how the systems maintain their functions and performance under a broad range of random internal and external perturbations. As a proof of principle, we examine signal transduction pathways and genetic regulatory pathways as biological systems. We employ widely used state-space equations in systems science to model biological systems, and use expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms and Kalman filter to estimate the parameters in the models. We apply the developed state-space models to human fibroblasts obtained from the autoimmune fibrosing disease, scleroderma, and then perform dynamic analysis of partial TGF-beta pathway in both normal and scleroderma fibroblasts stimulated by silica. We find that TGF-beta pathway under perturbation of silica shows significant differences in dynamic properties between normal and scleroderma fibroblasts. Our findings may open a new avenue in exploring the functions of cells and mechanism operative in disease development.

THE ROLE OF E2F1 IN THE RESPONSE TO DNA DOUBLE STRAND BREAKS

The importance of E2F transcription factors in the processes of proliferation and apoptosis are well established. E2F1, but not other E2F family members, is also phosphorylated and stabilized in response to various forms of DNA damage to regulate the expression of cell cycle and pro-apoptotic genes. E2F1 also relocalizes and forms foci at sites of DNA double-strand breaks but the function of E2F1 at sites of damage is still unknown. Here I reveal that E2F1 deficiency leads to increased spontaneous DNA break and impaired recovery following exposure to ionizing radiation. In response to DNA double-strand breaks, NBS1 phosphorylation and foci formation are defective in cells lacking E2F1, but NBS1 expression levels are unaffected. Moreover, it was observed that an association between NBS1 and E2F1 is increased in response to DNA damage, suggesting that E2F1 may promote NBS1 foci formation through a direct or indirect interaction at sites of DNA breaks. E2F1 deficient cells also display impaired foci formation of RPA and Rad51, which suggests a defect in DNA end resection and formation of single-stranded DNA at DNA double-strand breaks. I also found E2F1 status affects foci formation of the histone acetyltransferase GCN5 in response to DNA double-strand breaks. E2F1 is phosphorylated at serine 31 (serine 29 in mouse) by the ATM kinase as part of the DNA damage response. To investigate the importance of this event, our lab developed an E2F1 serine 29 mutant mouse model. I find that E2F1 serine 29 mutant cells show loss of E2F1 foci formation in response to DNA double-strand breaks. Furthermore, DNA repair and NBS1 foci formation are impaired in E2f1S29A/S29A cells. Taken together, my results indicate novel roles for E2F1 in the DNA damage response, which may directly promote DNA repair and genome maintenance.

Nonviolent factors: Variables associated with ethnic violence, and factors which are associated with nonviolent response to grievances toward members of other ethnic groups

Ethnic violence appears to be the major source of violence in the world. Ethnic hostilities are potentially all-pervasive because most countries in the world are multi-ethnic. Public health's focus on violence documents its increasing role in this issue.^ The present study is based on a secondary analysis of a dataset of responses by 272 individuals from four ethnic groups (Anglo, African, Mexican, and Vietnamese Americans) who answered questions regarding variables related to ethnic violence from a general questionnaire which was distributed to ethnically diverse purposive, nonprobability, self-selected groups of individuals in Houston, Texas, in 1993.^ One goal was psychometric: learning about issues in analysis of datasets with modest numbers, comparison of two approaches to dealing with missing observations not missing at random (conducting analysis on two datasets), transformation analysis of continuous variables for logistic regression, and logistic regression diagnostics.^ Regarding the psychometric goal, it was concluded that measurement model analysis was not possible with a relatively small dataset with nonnormal variables, such as Likert-scaled variables; therefore, exploratory factor analysis was used. The two approaches to dealing with missing values resulted in comparable findings. Transformation analysis suggested that the continuous variables were in the correct scale, and diagnostics that the model fit was adequate.^ The substantive portion of the analysis included the testing of four hypotheses. Hypothesis One proposed that attitudes/efficacy regarding alternative approaches to resolving grievances from the general questionnaire represented underlying factors: nonpunitive social norms and strategies for addressing grievances--using the political system, organizing protests, using the system to punish offenders, and personal mediation. Evidence was found to support all but one factor, nonpunitive social norms.^ Hypothesis Two proposed that the factor variables and the other independent variables--jail, grievance, male, young, and membership in a particular ethnic group--were associated with (non)violence. Jail, grievance, and not using the political system to address grievances were associated with a greater likelihood of intergroup violence.^ No evidence was found to support Hypotheses Three and Four, which proposed that grievance and ethnic group membership would interact with other variables (i.e., age, gender, etc.) to produce variant levels of subgroup (non)violence.^ The generalizability of the results of this study are constrained by the purposive self-selected nature of the sample and small sample size (n = 272).^ Suggestions for future research include incorporating other possible variables or factors predictive of intergroup violence in models of the kind tested here, and the development and evaluation of interventions that promote electoral and nonelectoral political participation as means of reducing interethnic conflict. ^

Plasminogen activator inhibitor-1, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1, e-selectin and C-reactive protein levels in response to 4-week very-high-fructose or -glucose diets.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES High intake of added sweeteners is considered to have a causal role in the pathogenesis of cardiometabolic disorders. Especially, high-fructose intake is regarded as potentially harmful to cardiometabolic health. It may cause not only weight gain but also low-grade inflammation, which represents an independent risk factor for developing type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. In particular, fructose has been suggested to induce plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1) expression in the liver and to increase circulating inflammatory cytokines. We therefore aimed to investigate, whether high-fructose diet has an impact on PAI-1, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1), e-selectin and C-reactive protein (CRP) concentrations in healthy humans. SUBJECTS/METHODS We studied 20 participants (12 males and 8 females) of the TUebingen FRuctose Or Glucose study. This is an exploratory, parallel, prospective, randomized, single-blinded, outpatient, hypercaloric, intervention study. The participants had a mean age of 30.9 ± 2.1 years and a mean body mass index of 26.0 ± 0.5 kg/m(2) and they received 150 g of either fructose or glucose per day for 4 weeks.Results:There were neither significant changes of PAI-1, MCP-1, e-selectin and CRP after fructose (n=10) and glucose (n=10) intervention nor treatment effects (all P>0.2). Moreover, we did not observe longitudinal associations of the inflammatory parameters with triglycerides, liver fat, visceral fat and body weight in the fructose group. CONCLUSIONS Temporary high-fructose intake does not seem to cause inflammation in apparently healthy people in this secondary analysis of a small feeding trial.

A Numerical Investigation of the Gulf Stream and Its Meanders in Response to Cold Air Outbreaks

The three-dimensional Princeton Ocean Model is used to examine the modification of the Gulf Stream and its meanders by cold air outbreaks. Two types of Gulf Stream meanders are found in the model. Meanders on the shoreward side of the Gulf Stream are baroclinically unstable. They are affected little by the atmospheric forcing because their energy source is stored at the permanent thermocline, well below the influence of the surface forcing. Meanders on the seaward side of the stream are both barotropically and baroclinically unstable. The energy feeding these meanders is stored at the surface front separating the Gulf Stream and the Sargasso Seal which is greatly reduced in case of cold air outbreaks. Thus, meanders there reduce strength and also seem to slow their downstream propagation due to the southward Ekman flow. Heat budget calculations suggest two almost separable processes. The oceanic heal released to the atmosphere during these severe cooling episodes comes almost exclusively from the upper water column. Transport of heat by meanders from the Gulf Stream to the shelf, though it is large, does not disrupt the principal balance. It is balanced nicely with the net heat transport in the downstream direction.

Elderly age is not a negative predictive factor for virological response to therapy with pegylated interferon-α and ribavirin in chronic hepatitis C virus patients

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Age is frequently discussed as negative host factor to achieve a sustained virological response (SVR) to antiviral therapy of chronic hepatitis C. However, elderly patients often show advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis as known negative predictive factor. The aim of this study was to assess age as an independent predictive factor during antiviral therapy. METHODS: Overall, 516 hepatitis C patients were treated with pegylated interferon-α and ribavirin, thereof 66 patients ≥60 years. We analysed the impact of host factors (age, gender, fibrosis, haemoglobin, previous hepatitis C treatment) and viral factors (genotype, viral load) on SVR per therapy course by performing a generalized estimating equations (GEE) regression modelling, a matched pair analysis and a classification tree analysis. RESULTS: Overall, SVR per therapy course was 42.9 and 26.1%, respectively, in young and elderly patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotypes 1/4/6. The corresponding figures for HCV genotypes 2/3 were 74.4 and 84%. In the GEE model, age had no significant influence on achieving SVR. In matched pair analysis, SVR was not different in young and elderly patients (54.2 and 55.9% respectively; P = 0.795 in binominal test). In classification tree analysis, age was not a relevant splitting variable. CONCLUSIONS: Age is not a significant predictive factor for achieving SVR, when relevant confounders are taken into account. As life expectancy in Western Europe at age 60 is more than 20 years, it is reasonable to treat chronic hepatitis C in selected elderly patients with relevant fibrosis or cirrhosis but without major concomitant diseases, as SVR improves survival and reduces carcinogenesis.