Modelling the impact of traffic incidents on travel time reliability

Traffic incidents are recognised as one of the key sources of non-recurrent congestion that often leads to reduction in travel time reliability (TTR), a key metric of roadway performance. A method is proposed here to quantify the impacts of traffic incidents on TTR on freeways. The method uses historical data to establish recurrent speed profiles and identifies non-recurrent congestion based on their negative impacts on speeds. The locations and times of incidents are used to identify incidents among non-recurrent congestion events. Buffer time is employed to measure TTR. Extra buffer time is defined as the extra delay caused by traffic incidents. This reliability measure indicates how much extra travel time is required by travellers to arrive at their destination on time with 95% certainty in the case of an incident, over and above the travel time that would have been required under recurrent conditions. An extra buffer time index (EBTI) is defined as the ratio of extra buffer time to recurrent travel time, with zero being the best case (no delay). A Tobit model is used to identify and quantify factors that affect EBTI using a selected freeway segment in the Southeast Queensland, Australia network. Both fixed and random parameter Tobit specifications are tested. The estimation results reveal that models with random parameters offer a superior statistical fit for all types of incidents, suggesting the presence of unobserved heterogeneity across segments. What factors influence EBTI depends on the type of incident. In addition, changes in TTR as a result of traffic incidents are related to the characteristics of the incidents (multiple vehicles involved, incident duration, major incidents, etc.) and traffic characteristics.

Seismic reliability assessment of external stability of reinforced soil walls using pseudo-dynamic method

The paper presents a method for the evaluation of external stability of reinforced soil walls subjected to earthquakes in the framework of the pseudo-dynamic method. The seismic reliability of the wall is evaluated by considering the different possible failure modes such as sliding along the base, overturning about the toe point of the wall, bearing capacity and the eccentricity of the resultant force. The analysis is performed considering properties of the reinforced backfill, foundation soil below the base of the wall, length of the geosynthetic reinforcement and characteristics of earthquake ground motions such as shear wave and primary wave velocity as random variables. The optimum length of reinforcement needed to maintain stability against four modes of failure by targeting various component reliability indices is obtained. Differences between pseudo-static and pseudo-dynamic methods are clearly highlighted in the paper. A complete analysis of pseudo-static and pseudo-dynamic methodologies shows that the pseudodynamic method results in realistic design values for the length of geosynthetic reinforcement under earthquake conditions.

Effect of timing of a deficit-irrigation allocation on corn evapotranspiration, yield, water use efficiency and dry mass

Water regulations have decreased irrigation water supplies in Nebraska and some other areas of the USA Great Plains. When available water is not enough to meet crop water requirements during the entire growing cycle, it becomes critical to know the proper irrigation timing that would maximize yields and profits. This study evaluated the effect of timing of a deficit-irrigation allocation (150 mm) on crop evapotranspiration (ETc), yield, water use efficiency (WUE = yield/ETc), irrigation water use efficiency (IWUE = yield/irrigation), and dry mass (DM) of corn (Zea mays L.) irrigated with subsurface drip irrigation in the semiarid climate of North Platte, NE. During 2005 and 2006, a total of sixteen irrigation treatments (eight each year) were evaluated, which received different percentages of the water allocation during July, August, and September. During both years, all treatments resulted in no crop stress during the vegetative period and stress during the reproductive stages, which affected ETc, DM, yield, WUE and IWUE. Among treatments, ETc varied by 7.2 and 18.8%; yield by 17 and 33%; WUE by 12 and 22%, and IWUE by 18 and 33% in 2005 and 2006, respectively. Yield and WUE both increased linearly with ETc and with ETc/ETp (ETp = seasonal ETc with no water stress), and WUE increased linearly with yield. The yield response factor (ky) averaged 1.50 over the two seasons. Irrigation timing affected the DM of the plant, grain, and cob, but not that of the stover. It also affected the percent of DM partitioned to the grain (harvest index), which increased linearly with ETc and averaged 56.2% over the two seasons, but did not affect the percent allocated to the cob or stover. Irrigation applied in July had the highest positive coefficient of determination (R2) with yield. This high positive correlation decreased considerably for irrigation applied in August, and became negative for irrigation applied in September. The best positive correlation between the soil water deficit factor (Ks) and yield occurred during weeks 12-14 from crop emergence, during the "milk" and "dough" growth stages. Yield was poorly correlated to stress during weeks 15 and 16, and the correlation became negative after week 17. Dividing the 150 mm allocation about evenly among July, August and September was a good strategy resulting in the highest yields in 2005, but not in 2006. Applying a larger proportion of the allocation in July was a good strategy during both years, and the opposite resulted when applying a large proportion of the allocation in September. The different results obtained between years indicate that flexible irrigation scheduling techniques should be adopted, rather than relying on fixed timing strategies.

Simple software processes and tests improve the reliability and usefulness of a model.

Models are abstractions of reality that have predetermined limits (often not consciously thought through) on what problem domains the models can be used to explore. These limits are determined by the range of observed data used to construct and validate the model. However, it is important to remember that operating the model beyond these limits, one of the reasons for building the model in the first place, potentially brings unwanted behaviour and thus reduces the usefulness of the model. Our experience with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), a farming systems model, has led us to adapt techniques from the disciplines of modelling and software development to create a model development process. This process is simple, easy to follow, and brings a much higher level of stability to the development effort, which then delivers a much more useful model. A major part of the process relies on having a range of detailed model tests (unit, simulation, sensibility, validation) that exercise a model at various levels (sub-model, model and simulation). To underline the usefulness of testing, we examine several case studies where simulated output can be compared with simple relationships. For example, output is compared with crop water use efficiency relationships gleaned from the literature to check that the model reproduces the expected function. Similarly, another case study attempts to reproduce generalised hydrological relationships found in the literature. This paper then describes a simple model development process (using version control, automated testing and differencing tools), that will enhance the reliability and usefulness of a model.

Comparative growth and biomass allocation of two varieties of cat's claw creeper, Dolichandra unguis-cati (Bignoniaceae) in Australia

Introduced as an ornamental vine, cat's claw creeper Dolichandra unguis-cati (syn. Macfadyena unguis-cati) has invaded coastal and subcoastal areas of subtropical eastern Australia. Two varieties have been indentified, one of which ('short-pod') is found throughout south-eastern Australia, while the other ('long-pod') appears to be restricted to several sites in south-eastern Queensland. We compared the growth and biomass allocation patterns of the two varieties in the field over a 22-month period to determine if a higher growth rate and/or more efficient allocation of biomass may contribute to this disparity in distribution. The long-pod variety produced greater aboveground and total biomass than the short-pod variety in both riparian and non-riparian zones. Belowground the two varieties produced a similar number of tubers and overall biomass, though the long-pod variety allocated a smaller portion of its carbon belowground. High growth rates and greater biomass allocation aboveground are characteristic of invasive species, allowing them to outcompete and crowd out existing vegetation. There was no significant site by variety interaction, an indication of consistency in variety performance across riparian and non-riparian sites. Results from our study suggest that differences in growth and biomass allocations are unlikely to have contributed to the disparity in distribution of the two varieties. Despite currently occupying a relatively small range, the long-pod variety may be a more adept invader than the short-pod variety, and could become more prevalent in the future. © 2012 CSIRO.

Reliability and validity of objective measures of physical activity in youth with cerebral palsy who are ambulatory

BACKGROUND Physical therapy for youth with cerebral palsy (CP) who are ambulatory includes interventions to increase functional mobility and participation in physical activity (PA). Thus, reliable and valid measures are needed to document PA in youth with CP. OBJECTIVE The purpose of this study was to evaluate the inter-instrument reliability and concurrent validity of 3 accelerometer-based motion sensors with indirect calorimetry as the criterion for measuring PA intensity in youth with CP. METHODS Fifty-seven youth with CP (mean age=12.5 years, SD=3.3; 51% female; 49.1% with spastic hemiplegia) participated. Inclusion criteria were: aged 6 to 20 years, ambulatory, Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) levels I through III, able to follow directions, and able to complete the full PA protocol. Protocol activities included standardized activity trials with increasing PA intensity (resting, writing, household chores, active video games, and walking at 3 self-selected speeds), as measured by weight-relative oxygen uptake (in mL/kg/min). During each trial, participants wore bilateral accelerometers on the upper arms, waist/hip, and ankle and a portable indirect calorimeter. Intraclass coefficient correlations (ICCs) were calculated to evaluate inter-instrument reliability (left-to-right accelerometer placement). Spearman correlations were used to examine concurrent validity between accelerometer output (activity and step counts) and indirect calorimetry. Friedman analyses of variance with post hoc pair-wise analyses were conducted to examine the validity of accelerometers to discriminate PA intensity across activity trials. RESULTS All accelerometers exhibited excellent inter-instrument reliability (ICC=.94-.99) and good concurrent validity (rho=.70-.85). All accelerometers discriminated PA intensity across most activity trials. LIMITATIONS This PA protocol consisted of controlled activity trials. CONCLUSIONS Accelerometers provide valid and reliable measures of PA intensity among youth with CP.

Effects of externally supplied protein on root morphology and biomass allocation in Arabidopsis

Growth, morphogenesis and function of roots are influenced by the concentration and form of nutrients present in soils, including low molecular mass inorganic N (IN, ammonium, nitrate) and organic N (ON, e.g. amino acids). Proteins, ON of high molecular mass, are prevalent in soils but their possible effects on roots have received little attention. Here, we investigated how externally supplied protein of a size typical of soluble soil proteins influences root development of axenically grown Arabidopsis. Addition of low to intermediate concentrations of protein (bovine serum albumen, BSA) to IN-replete growth medium increased root dry weight, root length and thickness, and root hair length. Supply of higher BSA concentrations inhibited root development. These effects were independent of total N concentrations in the growth medium. The possible involvement of phytohormones was investigated using Arabidopsis with defective auxin (tir1-1 and axr2-1) and ethylene (ein2-1) responses. That no phenotype was observed suggests a signalling pathway is operating independent of auxin and ethylene responses. This study expands the knowledge on N form-explicit responses to demonstrate that ON of high molecular mass elicits specific responses.

Design of laterally loaded piles in clays based on cone penetration test data: a reliability-based approach

The behaviour of laterally loaded piles is considerably influenced by the uncertainties in soil properties. Hence probabilistic models for assessment of allowable lateral load are necessary. Cone penetration test (CPT) data are often used to determine soil strength parameters, whereby the allowable lateral load of the pile is computed. In the present study, the maximum lateral displacement and moment of the pile are obtained based on the coefficient of subgrade reaction approach, considering the nonlinear soil behaviour in undrained clay. The coefficient of subgrade reaction is related to the undrained shear strength of soil, which can be obtained from CPT data. The soil medium is modelled as a one-dimensional random field along the depth, and it is described by the standard deviation and scale of fluctuation of the undrained shear strength of soil. Inherent soil variability, measurement uncertainty and transformation uncertainty are taken into consideration. The statistics of maximum lateral deflection and moment are obtained using the first-order, second-moment technique. Hasofer-Lind reliability indices for component and system failure criteria, based on the allowable lateral displacement and moment capacity of the pile section, are evaluated. The geotechnical database from the Konaseema site in India is used as a case example. It is shown that the reliability-based design approach for pile foundations, considering the spatial variability of soil, permits a rational choice of allowable lateral loads.

Development, reliability and validity of the queensland evaluation of wheelchair skills (QEWS)

- Objectives To develop and test a valid and reliable assessment of wheelchair skills for individuals with spinal cord injuries (SCI); the Queensland Evaluation of Wheelchair Skills (QEWS). - Setting Hospital, Australia. - Methods Phase 1: Four Delphi panel rounds with clinical experts were used to develop the QEWS. Phase 2: Intra-rater and inter-rater reliability of the QEWS items were examined in 100 people with SCI. Phase 3a: Concurrent validity was investigated by examining the association between QEWS total scores and physiotherapists’ global ratings of wheelchair skill performance. Phase 3b: Construct validity was tested in 20 people with recent SCI by examining change in QEWS total scores between when they first mobilised in a wheelchair and scores obtained 10 weeks later. - Results Phase 1: The QEWS was developed. Phase 2: The intra-class correlation coefficients reflecting the intra-rater reliability and the inter-rater reliability for the QEWS total score were 1.00 and 0.98, with scores being within one point of each other 96 and 91% of the time, respectively. Phase 3a: The QEWS total scores were comparable with the global rating of wheelchair skill performance (r2=0.93). Phase 3b: The QEWS scores changed by a median (interquartile range (IQR)) of 4 (1 to 6) points over the 10-week period following first wheelchair mobilisation. - Conclusion The QEWS is a valid and reliable tool for measuring wheelchair skills in individuals with SCI. The QEWS is efficient and practical to administer and does not require specialised equipment.

A data fusion approach of multiple maintenance data sources for real-world reliability modelling

A central tenet in the theory of reliability modelling is the quantification of the probability of asset failure. In general, reliability depends on asset age and the maintenance policy applied. Usually, failure and maintenance times are the primary inputs to reliability models. However, for many organisations, different aspects of these data are often recorded in different databases (e.g. work order notifications, event logs, condition monitoring data, and process control data). These recorded data cannot be interpreted individually, since they typically do not have all the information necessary to ascertain failure and preventive maintenance times. This paper presents a methodology for the extraction of failure and preventive maintenance times using commonly-available, real-world data sources. A text-mining approach is employed to extract keywords indicative of the source of the maintenance event. Using these keywords, a Naïve Bayes classifier is then applied to attribute each machine stoppage to one of two classes: failure or preventive. The accuracy of the algorithm is assessed and the classified failure time data are then presented. The applicability of the methodology is demonstrated on a maintenance data set from an Australian electricity company.

Reliability Optimization using SLUMT

This paper is concerned with the reliability optimization of a spatially redundant system, subject to various constraints, by using nonlinear programming. The constrained optimization problem is converted into a sequence of unconstrained optimization problems by using a penalty function. The new problem is then solved by the conjugate gradient method. The advantages of this method are highlighted.

Performance reliability of high-maintenance systems

The time–history of the performance of a system is treated as a stochastic corrective process, in which deterioration due to aging is counteracted at brief maintenance checks. Using a diffusion approximation for the deterioration, simple models are proposed for describing maintenance either by component replacement or by performance restoration. Equilibrium solutions of the models show that the performance has a probability distribution with exponential tails: the uncritical use of Gaussians can grossly underestimate the probability of poor performance. The proposed models are supported by recent observational evidence on aircraft track-keeping errors, which are shown to follow the modified exponential distribution derived here. The analysis also brings out the relation between the deterioration characteristics of the system and the intensity of the maintenance effort required to achieve a given performance reliability.

Lobbying by ethnic groups and aid allocation

We develop a political-economic model of foreign aid allocation. Each ethnic group in the donor country lobbies the government to allocate more aid to its country of origin, and the government accepts political contributions from lobby groups. Initial per-capita income of the recipients and those of the ethnic groups are shown to be important determinants of the solution of the political equilibrium. We also examine the effects of changes in the degree of corruption, aid fatigue, and ethnic composition, in the donor country on the allocation of aid.

Country-scale carbon accounting of the vegetation and mineral soils of Finland

The increase in global temperature has been attributed to increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG), mainly that of CO2. The threat of severe and complex socio-economic and ecological implications of climate change have initiated an international process that aims to reduce emissions, to increase C sinks, and to protect existing C reservoirs. The famous Kyoto protocol is an offspring of this process. The Kyoto protocol and its accords state that signatory countries need to monitor their forest C pools, and to follow the guidelines set by the IPCC in the preparation, reporting and quality assessment of the C pool change estimates. The aims of this thesis were i) to estimate the changes in carbon stocks vegetation and soil in the forests in Finnish forests from 1922 to 2004, ii) to evaluate the applied methodology by using empirical data, iii) to assess the reliability of the estimates by means of uncertainty analysis, iv) to assess the effect of forest C sinks on the reliability of the entire national GHG inventory, and finally, v) to present an application of model-based stratification to a large-scale sampling design of soil C stock changes. The applied methodology builds on the forest inventory measured data (or modelled stand data), and uses statistical modelling to predict biomasses and litter productions, as well as a dynamic soil C model to predict the decomposition of litter. The mean vegetation C sink of Finnish forests from 1922 to 2004 was 3.3 Tg C a-1, and in soil was 0.7 Tg C a-1. Soil is slowly accumulating C as a consequence of increased growing stock and unsaturated soil C stocks in relation to current detritus input to soil that is higher than in the beginning of the period. Annual estimates of vegetation and soil C stock changes fluctuated considerably during the period, were frequently opposite (e.g. vegetation was a sink but soil was a source). The inclusion of vegetation sinks into the national GHG inventory of 2003 increased its uncertainty from between -4% and 9% to ± 19% (95% CI), and further inclusion of upland mineral soils increased it to ± 24%. The uncertainties of annual sinks can be reduced most efficiently by concentrating on the quality of the model input data. Despite the decreased precision of the national GHG inventory, the inclusion of uncertain sinks improves its accuracy due to the larger sectoral coverage of the inventory. If the national soil sink estimates were prepared by repeated soil sampling of model-stratified sample plots, the uncertainties would be accounted for in the stratum formation and sample allocation. Otherwise, the increases of sampling efficiency by stratification remain smaller. The highly variable and frequently opposite annual changes in ecosystem C pools imply the importance of full ecosystem C accounting. If forest C sink estimates will be used in practice average sink estimates seem a more reasonable basis than the annual estimates. This is due to the fact that annual forest sinks vary considerably and annual estimates are uncertain, and they have severe consequences for the reliability of the total national GHG balance. The estimation of average sinks should still be based on annual or even more frequent data due to the non-linear decomposition process that is influenced by the annual climate. The methodology used in this study to predict forest C sinks can be transferred to other countries with some modifications. The ultimate verification of sink estimates should be based on comparison to empirical data, in which case the model-based stratification presented in this study can serve to improve the efficiency of the sampling design.