Indústria de máquinas agrícolas no Brasil: um modelo para estimação da demanda de tratores para o triênio 2016 – 2018

O objetivo desta dissertação foi estimar a demanda de tratores agrícolas para o mercado brasileiro no triênio 2016-2018, utilizando-se para isto de técnicas de econometria de séries temporais, neste caso, modelos univariados da classe ARIMA e SARIMA e ou multivariados SARIMAX. Justifica-se esta pesquisa quando se observa a indústria de máquinas agrícolas no Brasil, dados os ciclos econômicos e outros fatores exógenos aos fundamentos econômicos da demanda, onde esta enfrenta muitos desafios. Dentre estes, a estimação de demanda se destaca, pois exerce forte impacto, por exemplo, no planejamento e custo de produção de curto e médio prazo, níveis de inventários, na relação com fornecedores de materiais e de mão de obra local, e por consequência na geração de valor para o acionista. Durante a fase de revisão bibliográfica foram encontrados vários trabalhos científicos que abordam o agronegócio e suas diversas áreas de atuação, porém, não foram encontrados trabalhos científicos publicados no Brasil que abordassem a previsão da demanda de tratores agrícolas no Brasil, o que serviu de motivação para agregar conhecimento à academia e valor ao mercado através deste. Concluiu-se, após testes realizados com diversos modelos que estão dispostos no texto e apêndices, que o modelo univariado SARIMA (15,1,1) (1,1,1) cumpriu as premissas estabelecidas nos objetivos específicos para escolha do modelo que melhor se ajusta aos dados, e foi escolhido então, como o modelo para estimação da demanda de tratores agrícolas no Brasil. Os resultados desta pesquisa apontam para uma demanda de tratores agrícolas no Brasil oscilando entre 46.000 e 49.000 unidades ano entre os anos de 2016 e 2018.

Serviço Social e terceiro setor: considerações sobre as atuais relações e condições de trabalho para o Assistente Social em Natal

The present study analyses the actual relations and work conditions found in the third sector in Natal city, in the context of productive restoration and increasingly retraction from the State in providing Social Service before the new approach that has been destined to the social issue. The study talks about the work of the social worker when fighting the different expressions the social issue has, such as social service provision as a way of teamwork associated to work relations and conditions, to accessible resources and quality control management. These are elements that affect and interfere in the accomplishment and in the work of the social worker itself. The State s improvement, according to neoliberal-political precepts and increasingly retraction from the public investment in the areas of social concern (health, social welfare, assistance) and in the wage and employment policy, besides expanding the partnership with the public and private areas, in search for social services with quality, it has diversified the structures of the professional work with the growth of the so called third sector institutions. However, the absorption of the social workers by the third sector groups in general, has as major features the impoverishment of work relations, the maintenance of an unequal salary model, pointing out the deadline contracts and/or single tasks that generate work instability. The research debates, with a critical view and full perspective, over the conception of the third sector, interpreted as an action that expresses functions and values, treated as a real phenomenon generated from the restoration of the capital based on neoliberal principles. This study aims for responding what the established work relations are and under what work conditions the social worker has been fitting in the third sector and how such a reality echoes in the current work conditions for a social work in the city of Natal, before this new model of state intervention that transfers part of the social service provision to distinctive divisions of society, among them the so called third sector. The research results have shown that like the other workers the social worker passes through the same crises, dilemmas, advances and challenges that occur in the world of employment and which are expressed in the drop of salary average in the growth of contemporary contracts, unemployment, and in the ever more selective requirements to one be included in the social spaces, where the professional work is done, having as a result a greater impoverishment of work relations and conditions as well as more vulnerability as a salaried occupation

Fuzzy subset approach in coupled population dynamics of blowflies

This paper is a study on the population dynamics of blowflies employing a density-dependent. non-linear mathematical model and a coupled population formalism. In this Study, we investigated the coupled population dynamics applying fuzzy subsets to model the Population trajectory. analyzing demographic parameters such as fecundity, Survival, and migration. The main results suggest different possibilities in terms of dynamic behavior produced by migration in coupled Populations between distinct environments and the rescue effect generated by the connection between populations. It was possible to conclude that environmental heterogeneity can play an important role in blowfly metapopulation systems. The implications of these results for population dynamics of blowflies are discussed.

Population dynamics of Musca domestica (Diptera: Muscidae): experimental and theoretical studies at different temperatures

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Network for Cooperation in Integrated Water Resource Management for Sustainable Development in Latin America and the Caribbean No. 42

Editorial remarks.-- Open discussion: Conceptual change in regulation in a model of public service provision ; Policies and institutional frameworks for drinking water supply and sanitation ; Strategies for low-carbon development in megacities in Latin America ; Adapting to climate change in water management in the irrigation sector.-- Meetings: Towards a vision on natural resource governance for equality ; Water resources faced with uncertainty and the risk of climate change ; Regulation challenges in the water sector.-- News of the Network: Lessons to be drawn from the interprovincial Colorado River flow distribution agreement ; Rural drinking water programme in Chile ; Ecuador’s Act on Water Resources and Water Use and Exploitation.-- Internet and WWW News

Network for Cooperation in Integrated Water Resource Management for Sustainable Development in Latin America and the Caribbean No. 40

Editorial remarks.-- Open discussion: Regulation under the public model of service provision ; Regulatory progress and challenges in Argentina ; Twenty years of SUNASS: development, experience, lessons learned and challenges ; Possible conflict between efficiency and sustainability ; Best practices in regulating State-owned and municipal water utilities.-- News of the Network: Water use charge in the Province of Buenos Aires ; National Drinking Water and Sanitation Sector Policy of Guatemala ; Sanitation Services Modernization Law of Peru ; Internet and WWW News

Política Nacional de Extensão Universitária: análise da experiência do Instituto de Ciência da Saúde (ICS) da UFPA

O objeto deste estudo se referiu à extensão universitária, abordado a partir dos conceitos de universidade, organização, conhecimento e extensão. Buscou-se responder a seguinte pergunta: Os produtos gerados, por via de projetos, nas práticas extensionistas desenvolvidas pelo ICS/UFPA, cumprem as prerrogativas da Política Nacional de Extensão Universitária? Objetivou-se, de modo geral, analisar as práticas extensionistas do Instituto de Ciências da Saúde (ICS) da Universidade Federal do Pará (UFPA) à luz da Política Nacional de Extensão Universitária (PNEU), compreendida na interação dialógica, interdisciplinaridade e interprofissionalidade, indissociabilidade ensino-pesquisa-extensão, impacto na formação do estudante e, impacto e transformação social, contemplada na Política de Extensão da UFPA. A metodologia da pesquisa seguiu-se pela abordagem quantitativa e qualitativa com aporte bibliográfico e documental. Consultaram-se o acervo dos mais variados documentos, dado mais evidência àqueles enfocados sobre a extensão universitária no ano de 2012, contidos nas diversas instâncias da UFPA. Selecionaram-se para análise deste estudo 80 projetos e 60 relatórios de extensão do ICS do ano de 2012. Os resultados revelaram que as prerrogativas da PNEU ficaram muito aquém de serem atingidas pelos produtos do ICS, quando se tratou de interdisciplinaridade e interprofissionalidade, indissociabilidade ensinopesquisa- extensão, e, impacto e transformação social. Além disso, foi encontrada pouca participação por parte dos docentes, discentes e técnico-administrativos do ICS em dita atividade. Concluiu-se que o modelo de extensão do ICS é assistencial, desenvolvido através de prestação de serviços.

Testing for sexually transmitted infections in general practice: cross-sectional study

Background Primary care is an important provider of sexual health care in England. We sought to explore the extent of testing for chlamydia and HIV in general practice and its relation to associated measures of sexual health in two contrasting geographical settings. Methods We analysed chlamydia and HIV testing data from 64 general practices and one genitourinary medicine (GUM) clinic in Brent (from mid-2003 to mid-2006) and 143 general practices and two GUM clinics in Avon (2004). We examined associations between practice testing status, practice characteristics and hypothesised markers of population need (area level teenage conception rates and Index of Multiple Deprivation, IMD scores). Results No HIV or chlamydia testing was done in 19% (12/64) of general practices in Brent, compared to 2.1% (3/143) in Avon. In Brent, the mean age of general practitioners (GPs) in Brent practices that tested for chlamydia or HIV was lower than in those that had not conducted testing. Practices where no HIV testing was done had slightly higher local teenage conception rates (median 23.5 vs. 17.4/1000 women aged 15-44, p = 0.07) and served more deprived areas (median IMD score 27.1 vs. 21.8, p = 0.05). Mean yearly chlamydia and HIV testing rates, in practices that did test were 33.2 and 0.6 (per 1000 patients aged 15-44 years) in Brent, and 34.1 and 10.3 in Avon, respectively. In Brent practices only 20% of chlamydia tests were conducted in patients aged under 25 years, compared with 39% in Avon. Conclusions There are substantial geographical differences in the intensity of chlamydia and HIV testing in general practice. Interventions to facilitate sexually transmitted infection and HIV testing in general practice are needed to improve access to effective sexual health care. The use of routinely-collected laboratory, practice-level and demographic data for monitoring sexual health service provision and informing service planning should be more widely evaluated.

Irradiated disks and planet population synthesis

Recent planet population synthesis models (Alibert et al. 2010, submitted) have emphasized the key role played by the proto-planetary disk properties in determining the overall planet population characteristics. We present a disk model that takes into account viscous heating and irradiation by a central star. We consider the case of an equilibrium flaring angle. We illustrate the consequences of the resulting changes in the disk structure on the planet population by the synthetic populations corresponding to each of the different structures.

On Transport Service Selection in Intermodal Rail/Road Distribution Networks

Intermodal rail/road freight transport constitutes an alternative to long-haul road transport for the distribution of large volumes of goods. The paper introduces the intermodal transportation problem for the tactical planning of mode and service selection. In rail mode, shippers either book train capacity on a per-unit basis or charter block trains completely. Road mode is used for short-distance haulage to intermodal terminals and for direct shipments to customers. We analyze the competition of road and intermodal transportation with regard to freight consolidation and service cost on a model basis. The approach is applied to a distribution system of an industrial company serving customers in eastern Europe. The case study investigates the impact of transport cost and consolidation on the optimal modal split.

Ordinary Families -Extraordinary Care Giving

Children with severe emotional problems often have multiple needs that require disparate services including child welfare, juvenile justice, health, mental health, substance abuse, and mental retardation (Stroul, 1996). However, the primary care giving responsibilities for these youngsters still remain with their families. It is the family who shelters and clothes them; provides guidance, affection, recreation, nurturing; gets them to appointments with doctors and therapists and to school dayin- and-day-out, year after year (Lourie, 1995). Despite the invaluable and irreplaceable care provided by families, they are often maligned by a system which characterizes them as having their own problems and inadequacies. The purpose of this research is to learn more about the strengths of families who care for children with severe emotional disabilities (SED). This exploratory descriptive study made use of focus groups attended by parents who are caring for such children. In order to improve services to these families, it is important that we understand how the notion of strengths play out in their everyday lives. Observations are made about the care giving plan, which all families devise in the course of caring for their child with special needs. Implications for paid professionals who serve these families are offered by presenting a model for putting family care givers at the hub of the service provision wheel.

Dynamics of a Tularemia Outbreak in a Closely Monitored Free-Roaming Population of Wild House Mice.

Infectious disease outbreaks can be devastating because of their sudden occurrence, as well as the complexity of monitoring and controlling them. Outbreaks in wildlife are even more challenging to observe and describe, especially when small animals or secretive species are involved. Modeling such infectious disease events is relevant to investigating their dynamics and is critical for decision makers to accomplish outbreak management. Tularemia, caused by the bacterium Francisella tularensis, is a potentially lethal zoonosis. Of the few animal outbreaks that have been reported in the literature, only those affecting zoo animals have been closely monitored. Here, we report the first estimation of the basic reproduction number R0 of an outbreak in wildlife caused by F. tularensis using quantitative modeling based on a susceptible-infected-recovered framework. We applied that model to data collected during an extensive investigation of an outbreak of tularemia caused by F. tularensis subsp. holarctica (also designated as type B) in a closely monitored, free-roaming house mouse (Mus musculus domesticus) population in Switzerland. Based on our model and assumptions, the best estimated basic reproduction number R0 of the current outbreak is 1.33. Our results suggest that tularemia can cause severe outbreaks in small rodents. We also concluded that the outbreak self-exhausted in approximately three months without administrating antibiotics.

The welfare state determinants of health: Implications of regimes and pathways

Background. Population health within and between nations is heavily influenced by political determinants, yet these determinants have received significantly less attention than socioeconomic factors in public health. It has been hypothesized that the welfare state, as a political variable, may play a particularly prominent role in affecting both health indicators and health disparities in developed countries. The research, however, provides conflicting evidence regarding the health impact of particular regimes over others and the mechanisms through which the welfare state can most significantly affect health.^ Objective. To perform a systematic review of the literature as a means of exploring what the current research indicates regarding the benefits or detriments of particular regimes styles and the pathways through which the welfare state can impact heath indicators and health disparities within developed countries.^ Methods. A thorough search of the EBSCO, Pubmed, Medline, Web of Science, and Scopus electronic databases was conducted and resulted in the identification of 15 studies that evaluated the association between welfare state regime and population health outcomes, and/or pathways through with the welfare state influences health. ^ Results. Social democratic countries tended to perform best when infant mortality rate (IMR) was the primary outcome of interest, whereas liberal countries performed strongly in relation to self perceived health. The results were mixed regarding welfare state effectiveness in mitigating health inequities, with Christian democratic countries performing as well as social democratic countries. In relation to welfare state pathways, public health spending and medical coverage were associated with positive health indicators. Redistributive impact of the welfare state was also consistently associated with better health outcomes while social security expenditures were not.^ Discussion/Conclusions. Studies consistently discovered a significant relationship between the welfare state and population health and/or health disparities, lending support to the hypothesis that the welfare state is, indeed, an important non-medical determinant of health. However, it is still fairly unclear which welfare state regime may be most protective for health, as results varied according to the measured health indicator. The research regarding welfare state pathways is particularly undeveloped, and does not provide much insight into the importance of in-kind service provision or cash transfers, or targeted or universal approaches to the welfare state. Suggestions to direct future research are provided.^