878 resultados para Receiver Operating Characteristic
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Objective. To develop widely acceptable preliminary criteria of global flare for childhood-onset systemic lupus erythematosus (cSLE).Methods. Pediatric rheumatologists (n = 138) rated a total of 358 unique patient profiles with information about the cSLE flare descriptors from 2 consecutive visits: patient global assessment of well-being, physician global assessment of disease activity (MD-global), health-related quality of life, anti-double-stranded DNA antibodies, disease activity index scores, protein: creatinine (P:C) ratio, complement levels, and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR). Based on 2,996 rater responses about the course of cSLE (baseline versus followup), the accuracy (sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) of candidate flare criteria was assessed. An international consensus conference was held to rank these candidate flare criteria as per the American College of Rheumatology recommendations for the development and validation of criteria sets.Results. The highest-ranked candidate criteria considered absolute changes (Delta) of the Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI) or British Isles Lupus Assessment Group (BILAG), MD-global, P:C ratio, and ESR; flare scores can be calculated (0.5 x Delta SLEDAI + 0.45 x Delta P:C ratio + 0.5 x Delta MD-global + 0.02 x Delta ESR), where values of >= 1.04 are reflective of a flare. Similarly, BILAG-based flare scores (0.4 x Delta BILAG + Delta 0.65 x Delta P:C ratio + 0.5 + Delta MD-global + 0.02 x Delta ESR) of >= 1.15 were diagnostic of a flare. Flare scores increased with flare severity.Conclusion. Consensus has been reached on preliminary criteria for global flares in cSLE. Further validation studies are needed to confirm the usefulness of the cSLE flare criteria in research and for clinical care.
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Objective. To describe the clinical and laboratory features of macrophage activation syndrome as a complication of juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).Methods. Cases of juvenile SLE-associated macrophage activation syndrome were provided by investigators belonging to 3 pediatric rheumatology networks or were found in the literature. Patients who had evidence of macrophage hemophagocytosis on bone marrow aspiration were considered to have definite macrophage activation syndrome, and those who did not have such evidence were considered to have probable macrophage activation syndrome. Clinical and laboratory findings in patients with macrophage activation syndrome were contrasted with those of 2 control groups composed of patients with active juvenile SLE without macrophage activation syndrome. The ability of each feature to discriminate macrophage activation syndrome from active disease was evaluated by calculating sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.Results. The study included 38 patients (20 with definite macrophage activation syndrome and 18 with probable macrophage activation syndrome). Patients with definite and probable macrophage activation syndrome were comparable with regard to all clinical and laboratory features of the syndrome, except for a greater frequency of lymphadenopathy, leukopenia, and thrombocytopenia in patients with definite macrophage activation syndrome. Overall, clinical features had better specificity than sensitivity, except for fever, which was highly sensitive but had low specificity. Among laboratory features, the best sensitivity and specificity was achieved using hyperferritinemia, followed by increased levels of lactate dehydrogenase, hypertriglyceridemia, and hypofibrinogenemia. Based on the results of statistical analysis, preliminary diagnostic guidelines for macrophage activation syndrome in juvenile SLE were developed.Conclusion. Our findings indicate that the occurrence of unexplained fever and cytopenia, when associated with hyperferritinemia, in a patient with juvenile SLE should raise the suspicion of macrophage activation syndrome. We propose preliminary guidelines for this syndrome in juvenile SLE to facilitate timely diagnosis and correct classification of patients.
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Objectives: (1) To evaluate the intraobserver agreement related to image interpretation and (2) to compare the accuracy of 100%, 200% and 400% zoomed digital images in the detection of simulated periodontal bone defects.Methods: Periodontal bone defects were created in 60 pig hemi-mandibles with slow-speed burs 0.5 mm, 1.0 mm, 1.5 mm, 2.0 mm and 3.0 mm in diameter. 180 standardized digital radiographs were made using Schick sensor and evaluated at 100%, 200% and 400% zooming. The intraobserver agreement was estimated by Kappa statistic (kappa). For the evaluation of diagnostic accuracy receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed followed by chi-square test to compare the areas under ROC curves according to each level of zooming.Results: For 100%, 200% and 400% zooming the intraobserver agreement was moderate (kappa = 0.48, kappa = 0.54 and kappa = 0.43, respectively) and there were similar performances in the discrimination capacity, with ROC areas of 0.8611 (95% CI: 0.7660-0.9562), 0.8600 (95% CI: 0.7659-0.9540), and 0.8368 (95% CI: 0.7346-0.9390), respectively, with no statistical significant differences (chi(2)-test; P = 0.8440).Conclusions: A moderate intraobserver agreement was observed in the classification of periodontal bone defects and the 100%, 200% and 400% zoomed digital images presented similar performances in the detection of periodontal bone defects.
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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OBJECTIVE: To estimate the response in lung growth and vascularity after fetal endoscopic tracheal occlusion for severe congenital diaphragmatic hernia in the prediction of neonatal survival.METHODS: Between January 2006 and December 2010, fetal lung parameters (observed-to-expected lung-to-head ratio; observed-to-expected lung volume; and contralateral lung vascularization index) were evaluated before fetal tracheal occlusion and were evaluated longitudinally every 2 weeks in 72 fetuses with severe isolated congenital diaphragmatic hernia. Thirty-five fetuses underwent fetal endoscopic tracheal occlusion and 37 cases did not.RESULTS: Survival rate was significantly higher in the fetal endoscopic tracheal occlusion group (54.3%) than in the no fetal endoscopic tracheal occlusion group (5.4%, P<.01). Fetal endoscopic tracheal occlusion resulted in a significant improvement in fetal lung size and pulmonary vascularity when compared with fetuses that did not go to the fetal intervention (increase of the observed-to-expected lung-to-head ratio, observed-to-expected total lung volume, and contralateral pulmonary vascularization index 56.2% compared with 0.3%, 37.9% compared with 0.1%, and 98.6% compared with 0.0%, respectively; P<.01). Receiver operating characteristic curves indicated that the observed-to-expected total fetal lung volume was the single best predictor of neonatal survival before fetal endoscopic tracheal occlusion (cutoff 0.23, area under the curve [AUC] 0.88, relative risk 5.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.4-19.7). However, the contralateral lung vascularization index at 4 weeks after fetal endoscopic tracheal occlusion was more accurate in the prediction of neonatal outcome (cutoff 24.0%, AUC 0.98, relative risk 9.9, 95% CI 1.5-66.9) with the combination of observed-to-expected lung volumes and contralateral lung vascularization index at 4 weeks being the best predictor of outcome (AUC 0.98, relative risk 16.6, 95% CI 2.5-112.3).CONCLUSION: Fetal endoscopic tracheal occlusion improves survival rate by increasing the lung size and pulmonary vascularity in fetuses with severe congenital diaphragmatic hernia. The pulmonary response after fetal endoscopic tracheal occlusion can be used to predict neonatal survival. (Obstet Gynecol 2012; 119: 93-101) DOI: 10.1097/AOG.0b013e31823d3aea
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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O objetivo do artigo foi avaliar o uso da lógica fuzzy para estimar possibilidade de óbito neonatal. Desenvolveu-se um modelo computacional com base na teoria dos conjuntos fuzzy, tendo como variáveis peso ao nascer, idade gestacional, escore de Apgar e relato de natimorto. Empregou-se o método de inferência de Mamdani, e a variável de saída foi o risco de morte neonatal. Criaram-se 24 regras de acordo com as variáveis de entrada, e a validação do modelo utilizou um banco de dados real de uma cidade brasileira. A acurácia foi estimada pela curva ROC; os riscos foram comparados pelo teste t de Student. O programa MATLAB 6.5 foi usado para construir o modelo. Os riscos médios foram menores para os que sobreviveram (p < 0,001). A acurácia do modelo foi 0,90. A maior acurácia foi com possibilidade de risco igual ou menor que 25% (sensibilidade = 0,70, especificidade = 0,98, valor preditivo negativo = 0,99 e valor preditivo positivo = 0,22). O modelo mostrou acurácia e valor preditivo negativo bons, podendo ser utilizado em hospitais gerais.
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Objective. To use the Pediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organization (PRINTO) core set of outcome measures to develop a validated definition of improvement for the evaluation of response to therapy in juvenile systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).Methods. Thirty-seven experienced pediatric rheumatologists from 27 countries, each of whom had specific experience in the assessment of juvenile SLE patients, achieved consensus on 128 patient profiles as being clinically improved or not improved. Using the physicians' consensus ratings as the gold standard measure, the chi-square, sensitivity, specificity, false-positive and false-negative rates, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and kappa level of agreement for 597 candidate definitions of improvement were calculated. Only definitions with a kappa value greater than 0.7 were retained. The top definitions were selected based on the product of the content validity score multiplied by its kappa statistic.Results. The definition of improvement with the highest final score was at least 50% improvement from baseline in any 2 of the 5 core set measures, with no more than 1 of the remaining worsening by more than 30%.Conclusion. PRINTO proposes a valid and reproducible definition of improvement that reflects well the consensus rating of experienced clinicians and that incorporates clinically meaningful change in core set measures in a composite end point for the evaluation of global response to therapy in patients with juvenile SLE. The definition is now proposed for use in juvenile SLE clinical trials and may help physicians to decide whether a child with SLE responded adequately to therapy.
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Purpose: To evaluate the accuracy of approximal caries detection comparing enhanced and unenhanced Sidexis CCD-based digital image with Ektaspeed Plus and INSIGHT films. Methods: Fifty-two extracted premolars were imaged under identical standardized geometric and exposure conditions. Four observers, using five points confidence scale, rated 104 approximal surfaces for the presence or absence of carious lesions by means of four image modalities: (1) observer enhanced; (2) unenhanced Sidexis displays; (3) E speed films and (4) F speed film. Histologic sections served as validating criterion for the presence and depth of carious lesions. Diagnostic accuracy was measured as the area beneath the ROC curve. Results: Mean ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve areas for approximal surfaces were 0.865 (E speed), 0.856 (F speed), 0.816 (unenhanced Sidexis) and 0.776 (observer enhanced). There were no significant differences between unenhanced digital Sidexis and films. Observer enhanced Sidexis images exhibited a statistically significant lower diagnostic accuracy than the film images for two of the observers.
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A liquid phase blocking ELISA (LPB-ELISA) was adapted for the detection and quantification of antibodies to Newcastle disease virus. Sera from vaccinated and unvaccinated commercial flocks of ostriches (Struthio camelus) and rheas (Rhea americana) were tested. The purified and nonpurified virus used as the antigen and the capture and detector antibodies were prepared and standardized for this purpose. The hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) test was regarded as the reference method, the cutoff point for the LPB-ELISA was determined by a two-graph receiver operating characteristic analysis. The LPB-ELISA titers regressed significantly (P < 0.0001) on the HI titers with a high correlation coefficient (r = 0.875). The two tests showed good agreement (
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This in vitro study evaluated the performance of visual (International Caries Detection and Assessment System [ICDAS]) and radiographic (bitewing [BW]) examinations for occlusal caries detection and their associations with treatment decision (TD). Permanent teeth (n=104) with occlusal surfaces varying from sound to cavitated were selected. Sites were identified from 10x occlusal surface photographs. Standardized bitewing (BW) radiographs were taken. Four dentists with at least five years of experience scored all teeth twice (one-week interval) for ICDAS (0-6), BW (0=sound, 1=caries restricted to enamel, 2=caries in outer third dentin, 3=caries in inner third dentin), and TD (0=no treatment, 1=sealant, 2=microabrasion and sealant, 3=round bur sealant, 4a=resin, 4b=amalgam). Histological validation was performed by observation under a light microscope, with lesions classified on a five-point scale. Intraexaminer and inter-examiner repeatability were assessed using two-way tables and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs). Comparisons between percentage correct, specificity, sensitivity, and area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve were performed using bootstrap analyses. ICCs for intraexaminer and interexaminer repeatability indicated good repeatability for each examiner, ranging from 0.78 to 0.88, and among examiners, ranging from 0.74 to 0.81. Correlation between ICDAS and TD was 0.85 and between BW and TD was 0.78. Correlation between the methods and histological scores was moderate (0.63 for ICDAS and 0.61 for BW). The area under the ROC curve was significantly greater for ICDAS than for BW (p<0.0001). ICDAS had significantly lower specificity than BW did (p=0.0269, 79% vs 94%); however, sensitivity was much higher for ICDAS than for BW (p<0.0001, 83% vs 44%). Data from this investigation suggested that the visual examination (ICDAS) showed better performance than radiographic examination for occlusal caries detection. The ICDAS was strongly associated with TD. Although the correlation between the ICDAS and BW was lower, it is still valuable in the clinical decision-making process.
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Objective: To determine the accuracy of the variables related to the fixed-height stair-climbing test (SCT) using maximal oxygen uptake (V̇O 2 max) as the gold standard. Methods: The SCT was performed on a staircase consisting of 6 flights (72 steps; 12.16 m total height), with verbal encouragement, in 51 patients. Stair-climbing time was measured, the variables 'work' and 'power' also being calculated. The V̇O2 max was measured using ergospirometry according to the Balke protocol. We calculated the Pearson linear correlation (r), as well as the values of p, between the SCT variables and V̇O2 max. To determine accuracy, the V̇O 2 max cut-off point was set at 25 mL/kg/min, and individuals were classified as normal or altered. The cut-off points for the SCT variables were determined using the receiver operating characteristic curve. The Kappa statistic (k) was used in order to assess concordance. Results: The following values were obtained for the variable 'time': cut-off point = 40 s; mean = 41 ± 15.5 s; r = -0.707; p < 0.005; specificity = 89%; sensibility = 83%; accuracy = 86%; and k = 0.724. For 'power', the values obtained were as follows: cut-off point = 200 w; mean = 222.3 ± 95.2 w; r = 0.515; p < 0.005; specificity = 67%; sensibility= 75%; accuracy = 71%; and k = 0.414. Since the correlation between the variable 'work' and V̇O2 max was not significant, that variable was discarded. Conclusion: Of the SCT variables tested, using V̇O2 max as the gold standard, the variable 'time' was the most accurate.
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Background: Decreased heart rate variability (HRV) is related to higher morbidity and mortality. In this study we evaluated the linear and nonlinear indices of the HRV in stable angina patients submitted to coronary angiography. Methods. We studied 77 unselected patients for elective coronary angiography, which were divided into two groups: coronary artery disease (CAD) and non-CAD groups. For analysis of HRV indices, HRV was recorded beat by beat with the volunteers in the supine position for 40 minutes. We analyzed the linear indices in the time (SDNN [standard deviation of normal to normal], NN50 [total number of adjacent RR intervals with a difference of duration greater than 50ms] and RMSSD [root-mean square of differences]) and frequency domains ultra-low frequency (ULF) ≤ 0,003 Hz, very low frequency (VLF) 0,003 - 0,04 Hz, low frequency (LF) (0.04-0.15 Hz), and high frequency (HF) (0.15-0.40 Hz) as well as the ratio between LF and HF components (LF/HF). In relation to the nonlinear indices we evaluated SD1, SD2, SD1/SD2, approximate entropy (-ApEn), α1, α2, Lyapunov Exponent, Hurst Exponent, autocorrelation and dimension correlation. The definition of the cutoff point of the variables for predictive tests was obtained by the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (ROC). The area under the ROC curve was calculated by the extended trapezoidal rule, assuming as relevant areas under the curve ≥ 0.650. Results: Coronary arterial disease patients presented reduced values of SDNN, RMSSD, NN50, HF, SD1, SD2 and -ApEn. HF ≤ 66 ms§ssup§2§esup§, RMSSD ≤ 23.9 ms, ApEn ≤-0.296 and NN50 ≤ 16 presented the best discriminatory power for the presence of significant coronary obstruction. Conclusion: We suggest the use of Heart Rate Variability Analysis in linear and nonlinear domains, for prognostic purposes in patients with stable angina pectoris, in view of their overall impairment. © 2012 Pivatelli et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.