923 resultados para Real Options Theory


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Process guidance supports users to increase their process model understanding, process execution effectiveness as well as efficiency, and process compliance performance. This paper presents a research in progress encompassing our ongoing DSR project on Process Guidance Systems and a field evaluation of the resulting artifact in cooperation with a company. Building on three theory-grounded design principles, a Process Guidance System artifact for the company’s IT service ticketing process is developed, deployed and used. Fol-lowing a multi-method approach, we plan to evaluate the artifact in a longitudinal field study. Thereby, we will not only gather self-reported but also real usage data. This article describes the development of the artifact and discusses an innovative evaluation approach.

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An event memory is a mental construction of a scene recalled as a single occurrence. It therefore requires the hippocampus and ventral visual stream needed for all scene construction. The construction need not come with a sense of reliving or be made by a participant in the event, and it can be a summary of occurrences from more than one encoding. The mental construction, or physical rendering, of any scene must be done from a specific location and time; this introduces a "self" located in space and time, which is a necessary, but need not be a sufficient, condition for a sense of reliving. We base our theory on scene construction rather than reliving because this allows the integration of many literatures and because there is more accumulated knowledge about scene construction's phenomenology, behavior, and neural basis. Event memory differs from episodic memory in that it does not conflate the independent dimensions of whether or not a memory is relived, is about the self, is recalled voluntarily, or is based on a single encoding with whether it is recalled as a single occurrence of a scene. Thus, we argue that event memory provides a clearer contrast to semantic memory, which also can be about the self, be recalled voluntarily, and be from a unique encoding; allows for a more comprehensive dimensional account of the structure of explicit memory; and better accounts for laboratory and real-world behavioral and neural results, including those from neuropsychology and neuroimaging, than does episodic memory.

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Participation in European Union research projects now requires the setting-up of a project website. This paper discusses the creation of the "Matrix" to facilitate the information visualisation of a project; experiments, data, and results, etc, i.e. information far beyond the promotional details of the website. The paper describes the theory of such an endeavour before proceeding to discuss the practical realities for this case study project. Finally, we consider any lessons that can be learnt from this real-world application.

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This paper provides algorithms that use an information-theoretic analysis to learn Bayesian network structures from data. Based on our three-phase learning framework, we develop efficient algorithms that can effectively learn Bayesian networks, requiring only polynomial numbers of conditional independence (CI) tests in typical cases. We provide precise conditions that specify when these algorithms are guaranteed to be correct as well as empirical evidence (from real world applications and simulation tests) that demonstrates that these systems work efficiently and reliably in practice.

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The flexible-price two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. Two methodologies are employed to explore this model's ability to generate volatile and persistent exchange rates. In the first, actual data is used for the exogenous driving processes. In the second, the model is simulated using estimated forcing processes. The theory, in both cases, is capable of explaining the high volatility and persistence of real and nominal exchange rates as well as the high correlation between real and nominal rates. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Despite 10 years of research on behavior in hypothetical referenda, conflict remains in the literature on whether or not the mechanism generates biased responses compared to real referenda, and the nature and source of any such bias. Almost all previous inquiry in respect of this issue has concentrated on bias at the aggregate level. This paper reports a series of three experiments which focuses on bias at the individual level and how this can translate to bias at the aggregate level. The authors argue that only an individual approach to hypothetical bias is consistent with the concept of incentive compatibility. The results of these experiments reflect these previous conflicting findings but go on to show that individual hypothetical bias is a robust result driven by the differing influence of pure self-interest and other-regarding preferences in real and hypothetical situations, rather than by a single behavioral theory such as free riding. In a hypothetical situation these preferences cause yea-saying and non-demand revealing voting. This suggests that investigation of individual respondents in other hypothetical one-shot binary choices may also provide us with insights into aggregate behavior in these situations.

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The use of new mobile technologies is still in its infancy in many secondary schools and there is limited evidence of the educational and pedagogical benefits on pupils’ learning in the formal school context. This qualitative study focuses on the use of handheld devices to teach a topic in geography to an examination class. Action research combined with pupil observations and focus group interviews are used to capture the pupils’ experiences of using mediascapes. Activity Theory is used as a lens to structure the analysis of the data and to report on the cognitive and affective impact of m-learning on pupils’ academic performance in the topic. Increased attainment and the development of wider skills for lifelong learning were identified in the study. The adaptability of the majority of pupils to the technology resulted in increased levels of willingness to learn in this novel context.

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Alfvén waves are considered to be viable transporters of the non-thermal energy required to heat the Sun's quiescent atmosphere. An abundance of recent observations, from state-of-the-art facilities, have reported the existence of Alfvén waves in a range of chromospheric and coronal structures. Here, we review the progress made in disentangling the characteristics of transverse kink and torsional linear magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves. We outline the simple, yet powerful theory describing their basic properties in (non-)uniform magnetic structures, which closely resemble the building blocks of the real solar atmosphere.

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The cultivation of genetically modified (GM) crops in the EU is highly harmonised, involving a central authorisation procedure that aims to ensure a high level of environmental and human health protection. However conflicts over authority persist and the Commission has responded to a combination of internal and external pressures with a more flexible approach to coexistence, a proposed opt-out clause and recently a promise by the head of the Commission to review the existing EU GM legislative regime, providing an opportunity to consider and suggest paths of development. In light of the significance of multilevel governance and subsidiarity for GM cultivation, this paper considers the policy-making powers of the Member States and subnational regions in this regime, focussing upon post-authorisation options in particular. A number of core mechanisms exist, including voluntary measures, safeguard clauses, coexistence measures, a proposed express opt-out and Article 4(2) TEU on ‘national identity. These mechanisms are examined in light of the goals and challenges of multilevel governance, in order to consider whether the relevant powers are located at the appropriate level. Overall, it is apparent that the developments occurring at the EU level are strengthening multilevel governance, but with significant opportunities to improve it further through focussing on the supporting roles and the regional levels in particular.

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Critical decisions are made by decision-makers throughout
the life-cycle of large-scale projects. These decisions are crucial as they
have a direct impact upon the outcome and the success of projects. To aid
decision-makers in the decision making process we present an evidential
reasoning framework. This approach utilizes the Dezert-Smarandache
theory to fuse heterogeneous evidence sources that suffer from levels
of uncertainty, imprecision and conflicts to provide beliefs for decision
options. To analyze the impact of source reliability and priority upon
the decision making process, a reliability discounting technique and a
priority discounting technique, are applied. A maximal consistent subset
is constructed to aid in dening where discounting should be applied.
Application of the evidential reasoning framework is illustrated using a
case study based in the Aerospace domain.

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Implications Provision of environmental enrichment in line with that required by welfare-based quality assurance schemesdoes not always appear to lead to clear improvements in broiler chicken welfare. This research perhaps serves to highlightthe deficit in information regarding the ‘real world’ implications of enrichment with perches, string and straw bales.

Introduction Earlier work showed that provision of natural light and straw bales improved leg health in commercial broilerchickens (Bailie et al., 2013). This research aimed to determine if additional welfare benefits were shown in windowedhouses by increasing straw bale provision (Study 1), or by providing perches and string in addition to straw bales (Study 2).

Material and methods Commercial windowed houses in Northern Ireland containing ~23,000 broiler chickens (placed inhouses as hatched) were used in this research which took place in 2011. In Study 1 two houses on a single farm wereassigned to one of two treatments: (1) 30 straw bales per house (1 bale/44m2), or (2) 45 straw bales per house (1bale/29m2). Bales of wheat straw, each measuring 80cm x 40cm x 40cm were provided from day 10 of the rearing cycle,as in Bailie et al. (2013). Treatments were replicated over 6 production cycles (using 276,000 Ross 308 and Cobb birds),and were swapped between houses in each replicate. In Study 2, four houses on a single farm were assigned to 1 of 4treatments in a 2 x 2 factorial design. Treatments involved 2 levels of access to perches (present (24/house), or absent), and2 levels of access to string (present (24/house), or absent), and both types of enrichment were provided from the start of thecycle. Each perch consisted of a horizontal, wooden beam (300 cm x 5 cm x 5cm) with a rounded upper edge resting on 2supports (15 cm high). In the string treatment, 6 pieces of white nylon string (60 cm x 10 mm) were tied at their mid-pointto the wire above each of 4 feeder lines. Thirty straw bales were also provided per house from day 10. This study wasreplicated over 4 production cycles using 368,000 Ross 308 birds. In both studies behaviour was observed between 0900and 1800 hours in weeks 3-5 of the cycle. In Study 1, 8 focal birds were selected in each house each week, and generalactivity, exploratory and social behaviours recorded directly for 10 minutes. In Study 2, 10 minute video recordings weremade of 6 different areas (that did not contain enrichment) of each house each week. The percentage of birds engaged inlocomotion or standing was determined through scan sampling these recordings at 120 second intervals. Four perches andfour pieces of string were filmed for 25 mins in each house that contained these enrichments on one day per week. The totalnumber of times the perch or string was used was recorded, along with the duration of each bout. In both studies, gaitscores (0 (perfect) to 5 (unable to walk)) and latency to lie (measured in seconds from when a bird had been encouraged tostand) were recorded in 25 birds in each house each week. Farm and abattoir records were also used in both studies todetermine the number of birds culled for leg and other problems, mortality levels, slaughter weights, and levels of pododermatitis and hock burn. Data were analysed using SPSS (version 20.0) and treatment and age effects on behaviouralparameters were determined in normally distributed data using ANOVA (‘Straw bale density*week’, or‘string*perches*week’ as appropriate), and in non-normally distributed data using Kuskall-Wallace tests (P<0.05 forsignificance) . Treatment (but not age) effects on performance and health data were determined using the same testsdepending on normality of data.

Results Average slaughter weight, and levels of mortality, culling, hock burn and pododermatitis were not affected bytreatment in either study (P<0.05). In Study 1 straw bale (SB) density had no significant effect on the frequency orduration of behaviours including standing, walking, ground pecking, dust bathing, pecking at bales or aggression, or onaverage gait score (P>0.05). However, the average latency to lie was greater when fewer SB were provided (30SB 23.38s,45SB 18.62s, P<0.01). In Study 2 there was an interaction between perches (Pe) and age in lying behaviour, with higherpercentages of birds observed lying in the Pe treatment during weeks 4 and 5 (week 3 +Pe 77.0 -Pe 80.9, week 4 +Pe 79.5 -Pe 75.2, week 5 +Pe 78.4 -Pe 76.2, P<0.02). There was also a significant interaction between string (S) and age inlocomotory behaviour, with higher percentages of birds observed in locomotion in the string treatment during week 3 butnot weeks 4 and 5 (week 3 +S 4.9 -S 3.9, week 4 +S 3.3 -S 3.7, week 5 +S 2.6 -S 2.8, P<0.04). There was also aninteraction between S and age in average gait scores, with lower gait scores in the string treatment in weeks 3 and 5 (week3: +S 0.7, -S 0.9, week 4: +S 1.5, -S 1.4, week 5: +S 1.9, -S 2.0, P<0.05). On average per 25 min observation there were15.1 (±13.6) bouts of perching and 19.2 (±14.08) bouts of string pecking, lasting 117.4 (±92.7) and 4.2 (±2.0) s for perchesand string, respectively.

Conclusion Increasing straw bale levels from 1 bale/44m2 to 1 bale/29m2 floor space does not appear to lead to significantimprovements in the welfare of broilers in windowed houses. The frequent use of perches and string suggests that thesestimuli have the potential to improve welfare. Provision of string also appeared to positively influence walking ability.However, this effect was numerically small, was only shown in certain weeks and was not reflected in the latency to lie.Further research on optimum design and level of provision of enrichment items for broiler chickens is warranted. Thisshould include measures of overall levels of activity (both in the vicinity of, and away from, enrichment items).

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Ab initio total energy calculations within the Density Functional Theory framework were carried out for Pt(111), Pt(111)-p(2x2)-CO, Pt(111)-p(2x2)-O, and Pt(111)-p(2x2)-(CO+O) to provide an insight into the interaction between CO and O on metal surfaces, an important issue in CO oxidation, and also in promotion and poisoning effects of catalysis. The geometrical structures of these systems were optimized with respect to the total energy, the results of which agree with existing experimental values very well. It is found that (i) the local structures of Pt(111)-p(2x2)-(CO+O), such as the bond lengths of C-O, C-Pt, and O-Pt (chemisorbed O atom with Pt), are almost the same as that in Pt(111)-p(2x2)-CO and Pt(111)-p(2x2)-O, respectively, (ii) the total valence charge density distributions in Pt(111)-p(2x2)-(CO+O) are very similar to that in Pt(111)-p(2x2)-CO, except in the region of the chemisorbed oxygen atom, and also nearly identical to that in Pt(111)-p(2x2)-O, apart from in the region of the chemisorbed CO, and (iii) the chemisorption energy of CO on a precovered Pt(111)-p(2x2)-O and the chemisorption energy of O on a precovered Pt(111)-p(2x2)CO are almost equal to that in Pt(111)-p(2x2)-CO and Pt(111)-p(2x2)-O, respectively. These results indicate that the interaction between CO and chemisorbed oxygen on a metal surface is mainly shore range in nature. The discussions of Pt-CO and Pt-O bonding and the interaction between CO and the chemisorbed oxygen atom on Pt(111) are augmented by local densities of states and real space distributions of quantum states.