Statistical models for short-term wind power ramp forecasting

La predicción de energía eólica ha desempeñado en la última década un papel fundamental en el aprovechamiento de este recurso renovable, ya que permite reducir el impacto que tiene la naturaleza fluctuante del viento en la actividad de diversos agentes implicados en su integración, tales como el operador del sistema o los agentes del mercado eléctrico. Los altos niveles de penetración eólica alcanzados recientemente por algunos países han puesto de manifiesto la necesidad de mejorar las predicciones durante eventos en los que se experimenta una variación importante de la potencia generada por un parque o un conjunto de ellos en un tiempo relativamente corto (del orden de unas pocas horas). Estos eventos, conocidos como rampas, no tienen una única causa, ya que pueden estar motivados por procesos meteorológicos que se dan en muy diferentes escalas espacio-temporales, desde el paso de grandes frentes en la macroescala a procesos convectivos locales como tormentas. Además, el propio proceso de conversión del viento en energía eléctrica juega un papel relevante en la ocurrencia de rampas debido, entre otros factores, a la relación no lineal que impone la curva de potencia del aerogenerador, la desalineación de la máquina con respecto al viento y la interacción aerodinámica entre aerogeneradores. En este trabajo se aborda la aplicación de modelos estadísticos a la predicción de rampas a muy corto plazo. Además, se investiga la relación de este tipo de eventos con procesos atmosféricos en la macroescala. Los modelos se emplean para generar predicciones de punto a partir del modelado estocástico de una serie temporal de potencia generada por un parque eólico. Los horizontes de predicción considerados van de una a seis horas. Como primer paso, se ha elaborado una metodología para caracterizar rampas en series temporales. La denominada función-rampa está basada en la transformada wavelet y proporciona un índice en cada paso temporal. Este índice caracteriza la intensidad de rampa en base a los gradientes de potencia experimentados en un rango determinado de escalas temporales. Se han implementado tres tipos de modelos predictivos de cara a evaluar el papel que juega la complejidad de un modelo en su desempeño: modelos lineales autorregresivos (AR), modelos de coeficientes variables (VCMs) y modelos basado en redes neuronales (ANNs). Los modelos se han entrenado en base a la minimización del error cuadrático medio y la configuración de cada uno de ellos se ha determinado mediante validación cruzada. De cara a analizar la contribución del estado macroescalar de la atmósfera en la predicción de rampas, se ha propuesto una metodología que permite extraer, a partir de las salidas de modelos meteorológicos, información relevante para explicar la ocurrencia de estos eventos. La metodología se basa en el análisis de componentes principales (PCA) para la síntesis de la datos de la atmósfera y en el uso de la información mutua (MI) para estimar la dependencia no lineal entre dos señales. Esta metodología se ha aplicado a datos de reanálisis generados con un modelo de circulación general (GCM) de cara a generar variables exógenas que posteriormente se han introducido en los modelos predictivos. Los casos de estudio considerados corresponden a dos parques eólicos ubicados en España. Los resultados muestran que el modelado de la serie de potencias permitió una mejora notable con respecto al modelo predictivo de referencia (la persistencia) y que al añadir información de la macroescala se obtuvieron mejoras adicionales del mismo orden. Estas mejoras resultaron mayores para el caso de rampas de bajada. Los resultados también indican distintos grados de conexión entre la macroescala y la ocurrencia de rampas en los dos parques considerados. Abstract One of the main drawbacks of wind energy is that it exhibits intermittent generation greatly depending on environmental conditions. Wind power forecasting has proven to be an effective tool for facilitating wind power integration from both the technical and the economical perspective. Indeed, system operators and energy traders benefit from the use of forecasting techniques, because the reduction of the inherent uncertainty of wind power allows them the adoption of optimal decisions. Wind power integration imposes new challenges as higher wind penetration levels are attained. Wind power ramp forecasting is an example of such a recent topic of interest. The term ramp makes reference to a large and rapid variation (1-4 hours) observed in the wind power output of a wind farm or portfolio. Ramp events can be motivated by a broad number of meteorological processes that occur at different time/spatial scales, from the passage of large-scale frontal systems to local processes such as thunderstorms and thermally-driven flows. Ramp events may also be conditioned by features related to the wind-to-power conversion process, such as yaw misalignment, the wind turbine shut-down and the aerodynamic interaction between wind turbines of a wind farm (wake effect). This work is devoted to wind power ramp forecasting, with special focus on the connection between the global scale and ramp events observed at the wind farm level. The framework of this study is the point-forecasting approach. Time series based models were implemented for very short-term prediction, this being characterised by prediction horizons up to six hours ahead. As a first step, a methodology to characterise ramps within a wind power time series was proposed. The so-called ramp function is based on the wavelet transform and it provides a continuous index related to the ramp intensity at each time step. The underlying idea is that ramps are characterised by high power output gradients evaluated under different time scales. A number of state-of-the-art time series based models were considered, namely linear autoregressive (AR) models, varying-coefficient models (VCMs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). This allowed us to gain insights into how the complexity of the model contributes to the accuracy of the wind power time series modelling. The models were trained in base of a mean squared error criterion and the final set-up of each model was determined through cross-validation techniques. In order to investigate the contribution of the global scale into wind power ramp forecasting, a methodological proposal to identify features in atmospheric raw data that are relevant for explaining wind power ramp events was presented. The proposed methodology is based on two techniques: principal component analysis (PCA) for atmospheric data compression and mutual information (MI) for assessing non-linear dependence between variables. The methodology was applied to reanalysis data generated with a general circulation model (GCM). This allowed for the elaboration of explanatory variables meaningful for ramp forecasting that were utilized as exogenous variables by the forecasting models. The study covered two wind farms located in Spain. All the models outperformed the reference model (the persistence) during both ramp and non-ramp situations. Adding atmospheric information had a noticeable impact on the forecasting performance, specially during ramp-down events. Results also suggested different levels of connection between the ramp occurrence at the wind farm level and the global scale.

A wavelet-based approach for large wind power ramp characterisation

A wavelet-based approach for large wind power ramp characterisation

Storage requirements for PV power ramp-rate control

Short-term variability in the power generated by large grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) plants can negatively affect power quality and the network reliability. New grid-codes require combining the PV generator with some form of energy storage technology in order to reduce short-term PV power fluctuation. This paper proposes an effective method in order to calculate, for any PV plant size and maximum allowable ramp-rate, the maximum power and the minimum energy storage requirements alike. The general validity of this method is corroborated with extensive simulation exercises performed with real 5-s one year data of 500 kW inverters at the 38.5 MW Amaraleja (Portugal) PV plant and two other PV plants located in Navarra (Spain), at a distance of more than 660 km from Amaraleja.

Detecting and characterising ramp events in wind power time series

In order to implement accurate models for wind power ramp forecasting, ramps need to be previously characterised. This issue has been typically addressed by performing binary ramp/non-ramp classifications based on ad-hoc assessed thresholds. However, recent works question this approach. This paper presents the ramp function, an innovative wavelet- based tool which detects and characterises ramp events in wind power time series. The underlying idea is to assess a continuous index related to the ramp intensity at each time step, which is obtained by considering large power output gradients evaluated under different time scales (up to typical ramp durations). The ramp function overcomes some of the drawbacks shown by the aforementioned binary classification and permits forecasters to easily reveal specific features of the ramp behaviour observed at a wind farm. As an example, the daily profile of the ramp-up and ramp-down intensities are obtained for the case of a wind farm located in Spain

Characterization of gas emissions during heating of solid products

The emission of different harmful gases during the storage of solid fuels is a common phenomenon. The gases emitted during the heating process of those combustibles are the same as those emitted during combustion, mainly CO and CO2[1]. Nowadays, measurement of these emissions is mandatory. That is why in many industrial facilities different gas detectors are located to measure these gases. But it should be also useful if emissions could be predicted and the temperatures at the beginning of the emission process could be determined.

Joule heating in ferromagnetic nanostripes with a notch

The temperature in a ferromagnetic nanostripe with a notch subject to Joule heating has been studied in detail. We first performed an experimental real-time calibration of the temperature versus time as a 100 ns current pulse was injected into a Permalloy nanostripe. This calibration was repeated for different pulse amplitudes and stripe dimensions and the set of experimental curves were fitted with a computer simulation using the Fourier thermal conduction equation. The best fit of these experimental curves was obtained by including the temperature-dependent behavior of the electrical resistivity of the Permalloy and of the thermal conductivity of thesubstrate(SiO2). Notably, a nonzero interface thermal resistance between the metallic nanostripe and thesubstrate was also necessary to fit the experimental curves. We found this parameter pivotal to understand ourresults and the results from previous works. The higher current density in the notch, together with the interface thermal resistance, allows a considerable increase of the temperature in the notch, creating a large horizontal thermal gradient. This gradient, together with the high temperature in the notch and the larger current density close to the edges of the notch, can be very influential in experiments studying the current assisted domain wall motion.

Ion heating in transitions to CERC in the stellarator TJ-II

In TJ-II stellarator plasmas, in the electron cyclotron heating regime, an increase in the ion temperature is observed, synchronized with that of the electron temperature, during the transition to the core electron-root confinement (CERC) regime. This rise in ion temperature should be attributed to the joint action of the electron–ion energy transfer (which changes slightly during the CERC formation) and an enhancement of the ion confinement. This improvement must be related to the increase in the positive electric field in the core region. In this paper, we confirm this hypothesis by estimating the ion collisional transport in TJ-II under the physical conditions established before and after the transition to CERC. We calculate a large number of ion orbits in the guiding-centre approximation considering the collisions with a background plasma composed of electrons and ions. The ion temperature profile and the thermal flux are calculated in a self-consistent way, so that the change in the ion heat transport can be assessed.

Self-heating function of carbon nanofiber cement pastes

The viability of carbon nanofiber (CNF) composites in cement matrices as a self-heating material is reported in this paper. This functional application would allow the use of CNF cement composites as a heating element in buildings, or for deicing pavements of civil engineering transport infrastructures, such as highways or airport runways. Cement pastes with the addition of different CNF dosages (from 0 to 5% by cement mass) have been prepared. Afterwards, tests were run at different fixed voltages (50, 100 and 150V), and the temperature of the specimens was registered. Also the possibility of using a casting method like shotcrete, instead of just pouring the fresh mix into the mild (with no system’s efficiency loss expected) was studied. Temperatures up to 138 °C were registered during shotcrete-5% CNF cement paste tests (showing initial 10 °C/min heating rates). However a minimum voltage was required in order to achieve a proper system functioning.

Self-heating and deicing conductive cement. Experimental study and modeling

This research studies the self-heating produced by the application of an electric current to conductive cement pastes with carbonaceous materials. The main parameters studied were: type and percentage of carbonaceous materials, effect of moisture, electrical resistance, power consumption, maximum temperature reached and its evolution and ice melting kinetics are the main parameters studied. A mathematical model is also proposed, which predicts that the degree of heating is adjustable with the applied voltage. Finally, the results have been applied to ensure that cementitious materials studied are feasible to control ice layers in transportation infrastructures.