929 resultados para Rainfall, Mosquito Density, Polynomial Distributed Lag Model, Ross River Virus
Resumo:
Aedes albifasciatus is a floodwater mosquito that breeds in temporary waters. This semi-domestic species, widely distributed in Argentina, is a competent vector of the western equine encephalitis. The present study was carried out in two rain pools of the city of Buenos Aires, from April 1998 through March 1999. Samples were taken twice a week during the cold season and daily during the warmer months, starting from October. Immature mosquitoes were collected with a dipper, being the number of dippers proportional to the flooded area. The estimated rainfall thresholds to initiate cohorts of Ae. albifasciatus were: 16-17 mm in the fall-winter period, 25 mm in the spring, and 30 mm in the summer. The development time of the different cohorts and the mean air temperature of their respective periods were estimated in all seasons, ranging from six days (at 24ºC) to 32 days (at 13ºC). The equation that best expresses the relationship between development time and mean air temperature is dt =166,27.e-0,1435.T (R²=0,92). Significantly shorter development times were recorded for larvae of the first three stages as compared to the fourth larval stage and pupae.
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The dependence of much of Africa on rain fed agriculture leads to a high vulnerability to fluctuations in rainfall amount. Hence, accurate monitoring of near-real time rainfall is particularly useful, for example in forewarning possible crop shortfalls in drought-prone areas. Unfortunately, ground based observations are often inadequate. Rainfall estimates from satellite-based algorithms and numerical model outputs can fill this data gap, however rigorous assessment of such estimates is required. In this case, three satellite based products (NOAA-RFE 2.0, GPCP-1DD and TAMSAT) and two numerical model outputs (ERA-40 and ERA-Interim) have been evaluated for Uganda in East Africa using a network of 27 rain gauges. The study focuses on the years 2001 to 2005 and considers the main rainy season (February to June). All data sets were converted to the same temporal and spatial scales. Kriging was used for the spatial interpolation of the gauge data. All three satellite products showed similar characteristics and had a high level of skill that exceeded both model outputs. ERA-Interim had a tendency to overestimate whilst ERA-40 consistently underestimated the Ugandan rainfall.
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While the simulation of flood risks originating from the overtopping of river banks is well covered within continuously evaluated programs to improve flood protection measures, flash flooding is not. Flash floods are triggered by short, local thunderstorm cells with high precipitation intensities. Small catchments have short response times and flow paths and convective thunder cells may result in potential flooding of endangered settlements. Assessing local flooding and pathways of flood requires a detailed hydraulic simulation of the surface runoff. Hydrological models usually do not incorporate surface runoff at this detailedness but rather empirical equations are applied for runoff detention. In return 2D hydrodynamic models usually do not allow distributed rainfall as input nor are any types of soil/surface interaction implemented as in hydrological models. Considering several cases of local flash flooding during the last years the issue emerged for practical reasons but as well as research topics to closing the model gap between distributed rainfall and distributed runoff formation. Therefore, a 2D hydrodynamic model, depth-averaged flow equations using the finite volume discretization, was extended to accept direct rainfall enabling to simulate the associated runoff formation. The model itself is used as numerical engine, rainfall is introduced via the modification of waterlevels at fixed time intervals. The paper not only deals with the general application of the software, but intends to test the numerical stability and reliability of simulation results. The performed tests are made using different artificial as well as measured rainfall series as input. Key parameters of the simulation such as losses, roughness or time intervals for water level manipulations are tested regarding their impact on the stability.
Resumo:
The existence of juxtaposed regions of distinct cultures in spite of the fact that people's beliefs have a tendency to become more similar to each other's as the individuals interact repeatedly is a puzzling phenomenon in the social sciences. Here we study an extreme version of the frequency-dependent bias model of social influence in which an individual adopts the opinion shared by the majority of the members of its extended neighborhood, which includes the individual itself. This is a variant of the majority-vote model in which the individual retains its opinion in case there is a tie among the neighbors' opinions. We assume that the individuals are fixed in the sites of a square lattice of linear size L and that they interact with their nearest neighbors only. Within a mean-field framework, we derive the equations of motion for the density of individuals adopting a particular opinion in the single-site and pair approximations. Although the single-site approximation predicts a single opinion domain that takes over the entire lattice, the pair approximation yields a qualitatively correct picture with the coexistence of different opinion domains and a strong dependence on the initial conditions. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations indicate the existence of a rich distribution of opinion domains or clusters, the number of which grows with L(2) whereas the size of the largest cluster grows with ln L(2). The analysis of the sizes of the opinion domains shows that they obey a power-law distribution for not too large sizes but that they are exponentially distributed in the limit of very large clusters. In addition, similarly to other well-known social influence model-Axelrod's model-we found that these opinion domains are unstable to the effect of a thermal-like noise.
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In this paper the continuous Verhulst dynamic model is used to synthesize a new distributed power control algorithm (DPCA) for use in direct sequence code division multiple access (DS-CDMA) systems. The Verhulst model was initially designed to describe the population growth of biological species under food and physical space restrictions. The discretization of the corresponding differential equation is accomplished via the Euler numeric integration (ENI) method. Analytical convergence conditions for the proposed DPCA are also established. Several properties of the proposed recursive algorithm, such as Euclidean distance from optimum vector after convergence, convergence speed, normalized mean squared error (NSE), average power consumption per user, performance under dynamics channels, and implementation complexity aspects, are analyzed through simulations. The simulation results are compared with two other DPCAs: the classic algorithm derived by Foschini and Miljanic and the sigmoidal of Uykan and Koivo. Under estimated errors conditions, the proposed DPCA exhibits smaller discrepancy from the optimum power vector solution and better convergence (under fixed and adaptive convergence factor) than the classic and sigmoidal DPCAs. (C) 2010 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Unidirectional cytoplasmic incompatibility is seen when certain Wolbachia-infected insect populations are crossed. Two hypotheses might explain this phenomenon: superinfections with mutually incompatible strains of Wolbachia producing incompatibility when crossed to individuals infected with only a single bacterial strain or, alternatively, a bacterial dosage model, with differences in Wolbachia densities responsible for the incompatibility. A quantitative PCR assay was set up as a general method to compare Wolbachia densities between populations. Using this assay in unidirectionally incompatible stocks of the mosquito Aedes albopictus, we have determined that densities are significantly higher in Houston than in the Mauritius and Koh Samui stocks. This is consistent with a dosage model for the observed crossing patterns, but does not rule out the possibility that superinfection is the primary cause of the incompatibility.
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The convection-dispersion model and its extended form have been used to describe solute disposition in organs and to predict hepatic availabilities. A range of empirical transit-time density functions has also been used for a similar purpose. The use of the dispersion model with mixed boundary conditions and transit-time density functions has been queried recently by Hisaka and Sugiyanaa in this journal. We suggest that, consistent with soil science and chemical engineering literature, the mixed boundary conditions are appropriate providing concentrations are defined in terms of flux to ensure continuity at the boundaries and mass balance. It is suggested that the use of the inverse Gaussian or other functions as empirical transit-time densities is independent of any boundary condition consideration. The mixed boundary condition solutions of the convection-dispersion model are the easiest to use when linear kinetics applies. In contrast, the closed conditions are easier to apply in a numerical analysis of nonlinear disposition of solutes in organs. We therefore argue that the use of hepatic elimination models should be based on pragmatic considerations, giving emphasis to using the simplest or easiest solution that will give a sufficiently accurate prediction of hepatic pharmacokinetics for a particular application. (C) 2000 Wiley-Liss Inc. and the American Pharmaceutical Association J Pharm Sci 89:1579-1586, 2000.
Resumo:
PHWAT is a new model that couples a geochemical reaction model (PHREEQC-2) with a density-dependent groundwater flow and solute transport model (SEAWAT) using the split-operator approach. PHWAT was developed to simulate multi-component reactive transport in variable density groundwater flow. Fluid density in PHWAT depends not on only the concentration of a single species as in SEAWAT, but also the concentrations of other dissolved chemicals that can be subject to reactive processes. Simulation results of PHWAT and PHREEQC-2 were compared in their predictions of effluent concentration from a column experiment. Both models produced identical results, showing that PHWAT has correctly coupled the sub-packages. PHWAT was then applied to the simulation of a tank experiment in which seawater intrusion was accompanied by cation exchange. The density dependence of the intrusion and the snow-plough effect in the breakthrough curves were reflected in the model simulations, which were in good agreement with the measured breakthrough data. Comparison simulations that, in turn, excluded density effects and reactions allowed us to quantify the marked effect of ignoring these processes. Next, we explored numerical issues involved in the practical application of PHWAT using the example of a dense plume flowing into a tank containing fresh water. It was shown that PHWAT could model physically unstable flow and that numerical instabilities were suppressed. Physical instability developed in the model in accordance with the increase of the modified Rayleigh number for density-dependent flow, in agreement with previous research. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Motivated by the unconventional properties and rich phase diagram of NaxCoO2 we consider the electronic and magnetic properties of a two-dimensional Hubbard model on an isotropic triangular lattice doped with electrons away from half-filling. Dynamical mean-field theory (DMFT) calculations predict that for negative intersite hopping amplitudes (t < 0) and an on-site Coulomb repulsion, U, comparable to the bandwidth, the system displays properties typical of a weakly correlated metal. In contrast, for t > 0 a large enhancement of the effective mass, itinerant ferromagnetism, and a metallic phase with a Curie-Weiss magnetic susceptibility are found in a broad electron doping range. The different behavior encountered is a consequence of the larger noninteracting density of states (DOS) at the Fermi level for t > 0 than for t < 0, which effectively enhances the mass and the scattering amplitude of the quasiparticles. The shape of the DOS is crucial for the occurrence of ferromagnetism as for t > 0 the energy cost of polarizing the system is much smaller than for t < 0. Our observation of Nagaoka ferromagnetism is consistent with the A-type antiferromagnetism (i.e., ferromagnetic layers stacked antiferromagnetically) observed in neutron scattering experiments on NaxCoO2. The transport and magnetic properties measured in NaxCoO2 are consistent with DMFT predictions of a metal close to the Mott insulator and we discuss the role of Na ordering in driving the system towards the Mott transition. We propose that the Curie-Weiss metal phase observed in NaxCoO2 is a consequence of the crossover from a bad metal with incoherent quasiparticles at temperatures T > T-* and Fermi liquid behavior with enhanced parameters below T-*, where T-* is a low energy coherence scale induced by strong local Coulomb electron correlations. Our analysis also shows that the one band Hubbard model on a triangular lattice is not enough to describe the unusual properties of NaxCoO2 and is used to identify the simplest relevant model that captures the essential physics in NaxCoO2. We propose a model which allows for the Na ordering phenomena observed in the system which, we propose, drives the system close to the Mott insulating phase even at large dopings.
Resumo:
7-ketocholesterol (7-KC) differs from cholesterol by a functional ketone group at C7. It is an oxygenated cholesterol derivative (oxysterol), commonly present in oxidized low-density lipoprotein (LDL). Oxysterols are generated and participate in several physiologic and pathophysiologic processes. For instance, the cytotoxic effects of oxidized LDL have been widely attributed to bioactive compounds like oxysterols. The toxicity is in part due to 7-KC. Here we aimed to demonstrate the possibility of incorporating 7-KC into the synthetic nanoemulsion LDE, which resembles LDL in composition and behavior. This would provide a suitable artificial particle resembling LDL to study 7-KC metabolism. We were able to incorporate 7-KC in several amounts into LDE. The incorporation was evaluated and confirmed by several methods, including gel filtration chromatography, using radiolabeled lipids. The incorporation did not change the main lipid composition characteristics of the new nanoparticle. Particle sizes were also evaluated and did not differ from LDE. In vivo studies were performed by injecting the nanoemulsion into mice. The plasma kinetics and the targeted organs were the same as described for LDE. Therefore, 7-KC-LDE maintains composition, size and some functional characteristics of LDE and could be used in experiments dealing with 7-ketocholesterol metabolism in lipoproteins.
Resumo:
The use of cell numbers rather than mass to quantify the size of the biotic phase in animal cell cultures causes several problems. First, the cell size varies with growth conditions, thus yields expressed in terms of cell numbers cannot be used in the normal mass balance sense. Second, experience from microbial systems shows that cell number dynamics lag behind biomass dynamics. This work demonstrates that this lag phenomenon also occurs in animal cell culture. Both the lag phenomenon and the variation in cell size are explained using a simple model of the cell cycle. The basis for the model is that onset of DNA synthesis requires accumulation of G1 cyclins to a prescribed level. This requirement is translated into a requirement for a cell to reach a critical size before commencement of DNA synthesis. A slower gl-owing cell will spend more time in G1 before reaching the critical mass. In contrast, the period between onset of DNA synthesis and mitosis, tau(B), is fixed. The two parameters in the model, the critical size and tau(B), were determined from eight steady-state measurements of mean cell size in a continuous hybridoma culture. Using these parameters, it was possible to predict with reasonable accuracy the transient behavior in a separate shift-up culture, i.e., a culture where cells were transferred from a lean environment to a rich environment. The implications for analyzing experimental data for animal cell culture are discussed. (C) 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Resumo:
The ligand-binding region of the low-density lipoprotein (LDL) receptor is formed by seven N-terminal, imperfect, cysteine-rich (LB) modules. This segment is followed by an epidermal growth factor precursor homology domain with two N-terminal, tandem, EGF-like modules that are thought to participate in LDL binding and recycling of the endocytosed receptor to the cell surface. EGF-A and the concatemer, EGF-AB, of these modules were expressed in Escherichia coli. Correct protein folding of EGF-A and the concatemer EGF-AB was achieved in the presence or absence of calcium ions, in contrast to the LB modules, which require them for correct folding. Homonuclear and heteronuclear H-1-N-15 NMR spectroscopy at 17.6 T was used to determine the three-dimensional structure of the concatemer. Both modules are formed by two pairs of short, anti-parallel beta -strands. In the concatemer, these modules have a fixed relative orientation, stabilized by calcium ion-binding and hydrophobic interactions at the interface. N-15 longitudinal and transverse relaxation rates, and {H-1}-N-15 heteronuclear NOEs were used to derive a model-free description of the backbone dynamics of the molecule. The concatemer appears relatively rigid, particularly near the calcium ion-binding site at the module interface, with an average generalized order parameter of 0.85 +/- 0.11. Some mutations causing familial hypercholesterolemia may now be rationalized. Mutations of D41, D43 and E44 in the EGF-B calcium ion-binding region may affect the stability of the linker and thus the orientation of the tandem modules. The diminutive core also provides little structural stabilization, necessitating the presence of disulfide bonds. The structure and dynamics of EGF-AB contrast with the N-terminal LB modules, which require calcium ions both for folding to form the correct disulfide connectivities and for maintenance of the folded structure, and are connected by highly mobile linking peptides. (C) 2001 Academic Press.
Resumo:
This paper presents a distributed model predictive control (DMPC) for indoor thermal comfort that simultaneously optimizes the consumption of a limited shared energy resource. The control objective of each subsystem is to minimize the heating/cooling energy cost while maintaining the indoor temperature and used power inside bounds. In a distributed coordinated environment, the control uses multiple dynamically decoupled agents (one for each subsystem/house) aiming to achieve satisfaction of coupling constraints. According to the hourly power demand profile, each house assigns a priority level that indicates how much is willing to bid in auction for consume the limited clean resource. This procedure allows the bidding value vary hourly and consequently, the agents order to access to the clean energy also varies. Despite of power constraints, all houses have also thermal comfort constraints that must be fulfilled. The system is simulated with several houses in a distributed environment.
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Low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes are nowadays one of the hottest topics in coding theory, notably due to their advantages in terms of bit error rate performance and low complexity. In order to exploit the potential of the Wyner-Ziv coding paradigm, practical distributed video coding (DVC) schemes should use powerful error correcting codes with near-capacity performance. In this paper, new ways to design LDPC codes for the DVC paradigm are proposed and studied. The new LDPC solutions rely on merging parity-check nodes, which corresponds to reduce the number of rows in the parity-check matrix. This allows to change gracefully the compression ratio of the source (DCT coefficient bitplane) according to the correlation between the original and the side information. The proposed LDPC codes reach a good performance for a wide range of source correlations and achieve a better RD performance when compared to the popular turbo codes.