Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale

The development of susceptibility maps for debris flows is of primary importance due to population pressure in hazardous zones. However, hazard assessment by processbased modelling at a regional scale is difficult due to the complex nature of the phenomenon, the variability of local controlling factors, and the uncertainty in modelling parameters. A regional assessment must consider a simplified approach that is not highly parameter dependant and that can provide zonation with minimum data requirements. A distributed empirical model has thus been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using essentially a digital elevation model (DEM). The model is called Flow-R for Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (available free of charge under www.flow-r.org) and has been successfully applied to different case studies in various countries with variable data quality. It provides a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. The model was also found relevant to assess other natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and floods. The model allows for automatic source area delineation, given user criteria, and for the assessment of the propagation extent based on various spreading algorithms and simple frictional laws.We developed a new spreading algorithm, an improved version of Holmgren's direction algorithm, that is less sensitive to small variations of the DEM and that is avoiding over-channelization, and so produces more realistic extents. The choices of the datasets and the algorithms are open to the user, which makes it compliant for various applications and dataset availability. Amongst the possible datasets, the DEM is the only one that is really needed for both the source area delineation and the propagation assessment; its quality is of major importance for the results accuracy. We consider a 10m DEM resolution as a good compromise between processing time and quality of results. However, valuable results have still been obtained on the basis of lower quality DEMs with 25m resolution.

Managing Quality under Heterogeneous Consumer Demand and Product Quality, October 2005

Based on accepted advances in the marketing, economics, consumer behavior, and satisfaction literatures, we develop a micro-foundations model of a firm that needs to manage the quality of a product that is inherently heterogeneous in the presence of varying customer tastes or expectations for quality. Our model blends elements of the returns to quality, customer lifetime value, and service profit chain approaches to marketing. The model is then used to explain several empirical results pertaining to the marketing literature by explicitly articulating the trade-offs between customer satisfaction and costs (including opportunity costs) of quality. In this environment firms will find it optimal to allow some customers to go unsatisfied. We show that the relationship between the expected number of repeated purchases by an individual customer is endogenous to the choice of quality by the firm, indicating that the number of purchases cannot be chosen freely to estimate a customer’s lifetime value.

A developmental in vivo 1H NMR study in mice with genetic redox dysregulation: an animal model with relevance to schizophrenia

Glutathione (GSH), a major redox regulator and anti-oxidant, is decreased in cerebrospinal fluid and prefrontal cortex of schizophrenia patients. The gene of the key GSH-synthesizing enzyme, glutamate-cysteine ligase, modifier (GCLM) subunit, is associated with schizophrenia, suggesting that the deficit in the GSH system is of genetic origin. Using the GCLM knock-out (KO) mouse model with 60% decreased brain GSH levels, we have shown that redox dysregulation results in abnormal brain morphology and function. Current theory holds that schizophrenia is a developmental disease involving progressive anatomical and functional brain pathology. Here, we used GCLM KO mice to investigate the impact of a genetically dysregulated redox system on the neurochemical profile of the developing brain. The anterior and posterior cortical neurochemical profile of male and female GCLM KO, heterozygous and wildtype mice was determined by localised in vivo 1H NMR spectroscopy at 14.1 T (Varian/Magnex spectrometer) on post-natal days 10, 20, 30, 60 and 90. We show, for the first time, (1) that high quality 1H NMR spectra can be acquired from early developing mouse brains and (2) that recurrent anaesthesia by itself when administered at the same developmental days has no adverse effects on brain metabolites nor on adult behaviour. (3) Most importantly, our results reveal genotype and age specific changes for a number of metabolites revealing insight into normal brain development and about the impact of genetic GSH dysregulation.

The GraftConnector experience. Long-term patency and histological work up in an animal model.

BACKGROUND: A device to perform sutureless end-to-side coronary artery anastomosis has been developed by means of stent technology (GraftConnector). The present study assesses the long-term quality of the GraftConnector anastomosis in a sheep model. METHODS: In 8 adult sheep, 40-55 kg in weight, through left anterior thoracotomy, the right internal mammary artery (RIMA) was prepared and connected to the left anterior descending artery (LAD) by means of GraftConnector, on beating heart, without using any stabilizer. Ticlopidine 250 mg/day for anticoagulation for 4 weeks and Aspirin 100 mg/day for 6 months were given. The animals were sacrificed after 6 months and histological examination of anastomoses was carried out after slicing with the connector in situ for morphological analysis. RESULTS: All animals survived at 6 months. All anastomoses were patent and mean luminal width at histology was 1.8 +/- 0.2 mm; mean myotomia hyperplasia thickness was 0.21 +/- 0.1 mm. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term results demonstrate that OPCABGs performed with GraftConnector had 100% patency rate. The mean anastomotic luminal width corresponds to mean LAD's adult sheep diameter. We may speculate that myotomia hyperplasia occurred as a result of local device oversizing.

MRI visualized neo-intimal dissection and co-localization of novel apoptotic markers apolipoprotein C-1, ceramide and caspase-3 in a Watanabe hyperlipidemic rabbit model

PURPOSE: Apoptotic arterial wall vascular smooth muscle cell death is known to contribute to plaque vulnerability and rupture. Novel apoptotic markers like apolipoprotein C-I have been implicated in apoptotic human vascular smooth muscle cell death via recruiting a neutral sphingomyelinase (N-SMase)-ceramide pathway. In vivo relevance of these observations in an animal model of plaque rupture has not been shown. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using Watanabe rabbits, we investigated three different groups (group 1, three normal Watanabe rabbits; group 2, six Watanabe rabbits fed with high cholesterol diet for 3 months; group 3, five Watanabe rabbits with similar diet but additional endothelial denudation). We followed progression of atherosclerosis to pharmacologically induced plaque rupture non-invasively using novel 3D magnetic resonance Fast-Field-Echo angiography (TR=7.2, TE=3.6 ms, matrix=512 x 512) and Fast-Spin-Echo vessel wall imaging methods (TR=3 heart beats, TE=10.5 ms, matrix=304 x 304) on 1.5 T MRI. MRI provided excellent image quality with good MRI versus histology vessel wall thickness correlation (r=0.8). In six animals of group 2/3 MRI detected neo-intimal dissection in the abdominal aorta which was accompanied by immuno-histochemical demonstration of concomitant aforementioned novel apoptotic markers, previously implicated in the apoptotic smooth muscle cell death in vitro. CONCLUSIONS: Our studies suggest a potential role for the signal transduction pathway involving apolipoprotein C-I for in vivo apoptosis and atherosclerotic plaque rupture visualized by MRI.

Impact of High Crop Prices on Environmental Quality: A Case of Iowa and the Conservation Reserve Program, 2007

Growing demand for corn due to the expansion of ethanol has increased concerns that environmentally sensitive lands retired from agricultural production into the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) will be cropped again. Iowa produces more ethanol than any other state in the United States, and it also produces the most corn. Thus, an examination of the impacts of higher crop prices on CRP land in Iowa can give insight into what we might expect nationally in the years ahead if crop prices remain high. We construct CRP land supply curves for various corn prices and then estimate the environmental impacts of cropping CRP land through the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model. EPIC provides edge-of-field estimates of soil erosion, nutrient loss, and carbon sequestration. We find that incremental impacts increase dramatically as higher corn prices bring into production more and more environmentally fragile land. Maintaining current levels of environmental quality will require substantially higher spending levels. Even allowing for the cost savings that would accrue as CRP land leaves the program, a change in targeting strategies will likely be required to ensure that the most sensitive land does not leave the program.

Health care provider choice in the case of patient-initiated contacts. An extended version of discrete choice of model demand

This paper analyzes the nature of health care provider choice inthe case of patient-initiated contacts, with special reference toa National Health Service setting, where monetary prices are zeroand general practitioners act as gatekeepers to publicly financedspecialized care. We focus our attention on the factors that mayexplain the continuously increasing use of hospital emergencyvisits as opposed to other provider alternatives. An extendedversion of a discrete choice model of demand for patient-initiatedcontacts is presented, allowing for individual and town residencesize differences in perceived quality (preferences) betweenalternative providers and including travel and waiting time asnon-monetary costs. Results of a nested multinomial logit model ofprovider choice are presented. Individual choice betweenalternatives considers, in a repeated nested structure, self-care,primary care, hospital and clinic emergency services. Welfareimplications and income effects are analyzed by computingcompensating variations, and by simulating the effects of userfees by levels of income. Results indicate that compensatingvariation per visit is higher than the direct marginal cost ofemergency visits, and consequently, emergency visits do not appearas an inefficient alternative even for non-urgent conditions.

Demand for private health insurance: Is there a quality gap?

Quality of care is qualified as a main determinant of the demand forvoluntary private health insurance (PHI) in National Health Systems(NHS). This paper provides new evidence on the influence of the qualitygap between public and private health insurance and other demanddeterminants in the demand for PHI in Catalonia. The demand for PHI ismodelled as a demand for health care quality. Unlike previous studies, the database employed allows for the development of a link between thetheoretical and the empirical model dealing with unobserved heterogeneityand endogeneity issues. Results suggest that a rise in PHI qualityenhances an equivalent influence in the demand for PHI as an equalreduction of NHS quality. Income and price elasticity estimates areconsistent with the observed feature that PHI appears to be a luxurygood and individuals tend to be relatively insensible to tax relief'sand monetary co-payments in insurance contracts.

The international development of the RGHQoL: a quality of life measure for recurrent genital herpes.

This paper describes the international development and psychometric testing of the Recurrent Genital Herpes Quality of Life Questionnaire (RGHQoL), a condition-specific quality of life (QoL) instrument. The theoretical foundation for the measure is the needs-based model of QoL and the content of the instrument was derived from in-depth qualitative interviews with relevant patients in the UK. Versions of the RGHQoL were required for the UK, USA, Italy, Germany, France and Denmark for use in international clinical trials. The results indicate that the final 20 item measure has good reliability, internal consistency and validity for all language versions. A small responsiveness study in Denmark suggested that the measure is sensitive to changes in QoL associated with the initiation of suppression treatment for recurrent genital herpes (RGH). It is concluded that the RGHQoL is a valuable instrument for inclusion in clinical trials. The psychometric properties of the instrument are such that it may also be used to monitor the progress of individual patients.

World population growth and fertility patterns, 1960-2000. A simple model explaining the evolution of world's fertility during the second half of the 20th Century

In this paper we attempt to describe the general reasons behind the world populationexplosion in the 20th century. The size of the population at the end of the century inquestion, deemed excessive by some, was a consequence of a dramatic improvementin life expectancies, attributable, in turn, to scientific innovation, the circulation ofinformation and economic growth. Nevertheless, fertility is a variable that plays acrucial role in differences in demographic growth. We identify infant mortality, femaleeducation levels and racial identity as important exogenous variables affecting fertility.It is estimated that in poor countries one additional year of primary schooling forwomen leads to 0.614 child less per couple on average (worldwide). While it may bepossible to identify a global tendency towards convergence in demographic trends,particular attention should be paid to the case of Africa, not only due to its differentdemographic patterns, but also because much of the continent's population has yet toexperience improvement in quality of life generally enjoyed across the rest of theplanet.

Mixed equilibrium in a Downsian model with a favored candidate

This paper examines competition in the standard one-dimensional Downsian model of two-candidate elections, but where one candidate (A) enjoys an advantage over the other candidate (D). Voters' preferences are Euclidean, but any voter will vote for candidate A over candidate D unless D is closer to her ideal point by some fixed distance \delta. The location of the median voter's ideal point is uncertain, and its distribution is commonly known by both candidates. The candidates simultaneously choose locations to maximize the probability of victory. Pure strategy equilibria often fails to exist in this model, except under special conditions about \delta and the distribution of the median ideal point. We solve for the essentially unique symmetric mixed equilibrium, show that candidate A adopts more moderate policies than candidate D, and obtain some comparative statics results about the probability of victory and the expected distance between the two candidates' policies.

Model selection and error estimation

We study model selection strategies based on penalized empirical loss minimization. We point out a tight relationship between error estimation and data-based complexity penalization: any good error estimate may be converted into a data-based penalty function and the performance of the estimate is governed by the quality of the error estimate. We consider several penalty functions, involving error estimates on independent test data, empirical {\sc vc} dimension, empirical {\sc vc} entropy, andmargin-based quantities. We also consider the maximal difference between the error on the first half of the training data and the second half, and the expected maximal discrepancy, a closely related capacity estimate that can be calculated by Monte Carlo integration. Maximal discrepancy penalty functions are appealing for pattern classification problems, since their computation is equivalent to empirical risk minimization over the training data with some labels flipped.

Couple and family treatments: study quality and level of evidence.

This paper examines the application of the guidelines for evidence-based treatments in family therapy developed by Sexton and collaborators to a set of treatment models. These guidelines classify the models using criteria that take into account the distinctive features of couple and family treatments. A two-step approach was taken: (1) The quality of each of the studies supporting the treatment models was assessed according to a list of ad hoc core criteria; (2) the level of evidence of each treatment model was determined using the guidelines. To reflect the stages of empirical validation present in the literature, nine models were selected: three models each with high, moderate, and low levels of empirical validation, determined by the number of randomized clinical trials (RCTs). The quality ratings highlighted the strengths and limitations of each of the studies that provided evidence backing the treatment models. The classification by level of evidence indicated that four of the models were level III, "evidence-based" treatments; one was a level II, "evidence-informed treatment with promising preliminary evidence-based results"; and four were level I, "evidence-informed" treatments. Using the guidelines helped identify treatments that are solid in terms of not only the number of RCTs but also the quality of the evidence supporting the efficacy of a given treatment. From a research perspective, this analysis highlighted areas to be addressed before some models can move up to a higher level of evidence. From a clinical perspective, the guidelines can help identify the models whose studies have produced clinically relevant results.

Service Quality Analysis in the Five Stars Resort Hotels of Cape Verde

The objective of this study was the identification of the attributes and dimensions of service quality affecting the service performance of the five stars resort hotels located in the Cape Verde Islands. The reason boosting the initiative to do this research was the paramount role of the resort hotels in the development of the travel and tourism sector in Cape Verde, and the impact that today this sector has had in the economy of that country. The research opens with a literature review on the service quality theory in the hotel industry, starting from the middle of the 1980s with the classic model of service quality and SERVQUAL instrument to the analysis of recent models of service quality measurement in the hotel industry, as it is an example the scale of items developed in 2003 in the Lodging Quality Index (LQI). Furthermore, the study elaborates an analysis on the importance of the travel and tourism activities in the Cape Verde Islands, and it evidences the enormous importance of those activities in the performance of the Cape Verdean hotel industry. In sequence the study analyzes in details the hotel industry of Cape Verde and it identifies the market size of the five stars resort hotels and their current operators in that market. Moreover, the research develops with an online questionnaire elaborated and sent through the platforms of travel websites and communities to the guests whom have experienced the service of the five stars resort hotels located in the Cape Verde Islands. The scope of the questionnaire was to assess the attributes and dimensions of service quality in the five stars resort hotels of Cape Verde. The results of the questionnaire were in sequence analyzed through descriptive and applied statistics, using Microsoft Excel and the Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS). Content validity analysis, factor analysis, and reliability analysis of the factors were made to purify an initial scale of 47 items of service quality. An instrument with three dimensions covering twenty four attributes of service quality assessment in the five stars resort hotels of Cape Verde was finally created. The three dimensions found were: staff competence; food and entertainment; and physical facilities. This study on the service in the five stars resort hotels of Cape Verde ends with brief comments on the status of service quality according to the identified dimensions and their attributes. In the conclusion, the study summarizes the whole work and gives some directions for future research.

Habitat-quality effects on metapopulation dynamics in greater white-toothed shrews, Crocidura russula.

The effects of patch size and isolation on metapopulation dynamics have received wide empirical support and theoretical formalization. By contrast, the effects of patch quality seem largely underinvestigated, partly due to technical difficulties in properly assessing quality. Here we combine habitat-quality modeling with four years of demographic monitoring in a metapopulation of greater white-toothed shrews (Crocidura russula) to investigate the role of patch quality on metapopulation processes. Together, local patch quality and connectivity significantly enhanced local population sizes and occupancy rates (R2 = 14% and 19%, respectively). Accounting for the quality of patches connected to the focal one and acting as potential sources improved slightly the model explanatory power for local population sizes, pointing to significant source-sink dynamics. Local habitat quality, in interaction with connectivity, also increased colonization rate (R2 = 28%), suggesting the ability of immigrants to target high-quality patches. Overall, patterns were best explained when assuming a mean dispersal distance of 800 m, a realistic value for the species under study. Our results thus provide evidence that patch quality, in interaction with connectivity, may affect major demographic processes.