A utilização de modelos de duração para gerenciar risco de crédito

Os modelos hazard, também conhecidos por modelos de tempo até a falência ou duração, são empregados para determinar quais variáveis independentes têm maior poder explicativo na previsão de falência de empresas. Consistem em uma abordagem alternativa aos modelos binários logit e probit, e à análise discriminante. Os modelos de duração deveriam ser mais eficientes que modelos de alternativas discretas, pois levam em consideração o tempo de sobrevivência para estimar a probabilidade instantânea de falência de um conjunto de observações sobre uma variável independente. Os modelos de alternativa discreta tipicamente ignoram a informação de tempo até a falência, e fornecem apenas a estimativa de falhar em um dado intervalo de tempo. A questão discutida neste trabalho é como utilizar modelos hazard para projetar taxas de inadimplência e construir matrizes de migração condicionadas ao estado da economia. Conceitualmente, o modelo é bastante análogo às taxas históricas de inadimplência e mortalidade utilizadas na literatura de crédito. O Modelo Semiparamétrico Proporcional de Cox é testado em empresas brasileiras não pertencentes ao setor financeiro, e observa-se que a probabilidade de inadimplência diminui sensivelmente após o terceiro ano da emissão do empréstimo. Observa-se também que a média e o desvio-padrão das probabilidades de inadimplência são afetados pelos ciclos econômicos. É discutido como o Modelo Proporcional de Cox pode ser incorporado aos quatro modelos mais famosos de gestão de risco .de crédito da atualidade: CreditRisk +, KMV, CreditPortfolio View e CreditMetrics, e as melhorias resultantes dessa incorporação

Conditional treatment and its effect on recidivism

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the effect of the 1985 ”Employment Services for Ex-Offenders” (ESEO) program on recidivism. Initially, the sample has been split randomly in a control group and a treatment group. However, the actual treatment (mainly being job related counseling) only takes place conditional on finding a job, and not having been arrested, for those selected in the treatment group. We use a multiple proportional hazard model with unobserved heterogeneity for job seach and recidivism time which incorporates the conditional treatment effect. We find that the program helps to reduce criminal activity, contrary to the result of the previous analysis of this data set. This finding is important for crime prevention policy.

Câncer de boca e orofaringe: tendências e análise de sobrevida em Natal (RN)

Introduction: Mouth cancer is classified as having one of the ten highest cancer incidences in the world. In Brazil, the incidence and mortality rates of oral cancer are among the highest in the world. Intraoral cancer (tongue, gum, floor of the mouth, and other non-specified parts of the mouth), the accumulated survival rate after five years is less than 50%. Objectives: Estimate the accumulated survival probability after five years and adjust the Cox regression model for mouth and oropharyngeal cancers, according to age range, sex, morphology, and location, for the city of Natal. Describe the mortality and incidence coefficients of oral and oropharyngeal cancer and their tendencies in the city of Natal, between 1980 and 2001 and between 1997 and 2001, respectively. Methods: Survival data of patients registered between 1997 and 2001 was obtained from the Population-based Cancer Record of Natal. Differences between the survival curves were tested using the log-rank test. The Cox proportional risk model was used to estimate risk ratios. The simple linear regression model was used for tendency analyses of the mortality and incidence coefficients. Results: The probability after five years was 22.9%. The patients with undifferentiated malignant neoplasia were 4.7 times more at risk of dying than those with epidermoid carcinoma, whereas the patients with oropharyngeal cancer had 2.0 times more at risk of dying than those with mouth cancer. The mouth cancer mortality and incidence coefficients for Natal were 4.3 and 2.9 per 100 000 inhabitants, respectively. The oropharyngeal cancer mortality and incidence coefficients were, respectively, 1.1 and 0.7 per 100 000 87 inhabitants. Conclusions: A low survival rate after five years was identified. Patients with oropharyngeal cancer had a greater risk of dying, independent of the factors considered in this study. Also independent of other factors, undifferentiated malignant neoplasia posed a greater risk of death. The magnitudes of the incidence coefficients found are not considered elevated, whereas the magnitudes of the mortality coefficients are high

Recidiva de câncer labial em pacientes atendidos no hospital DR. Luiz Antônio (Natal-RN) entre 1997-2004

Introduction: Cancer of the lip is very common in tropical countries, being noticeable the squamous cell carcinoma as the main histological type. Objective: Evaluate the socialdemographic profile, habits, occupation, clinical characteristics of the cancer lesions and the aftermath of treatment of the patients treated on the Luiz Antônio Hospital (Natal-RN). Design: Retrospective cohort. Methods: We analyzed 181 medical records of patients from the Luiz Antônio Cancer Hospital (Natal-RN) in the period between 1997 and 2004. The statistic evaluation of time between the diagnosis and the relapse or the cure of the patient were done through the Kaplan-Meier method and the comparison of survivor functions were done through the Log-rank test. Later, was estimated the proportional risk model of Cox. Results: The study population were composed by 69,1% males, 95,2% unlettered, the mean age of 66,5 years, 89,0% of smokers and 64,1% had an occupation involving sun exposure. In regard to the clinical characteristics, most lesions were in the lower lip (77,9%), the size of the tumor was smaller than 2 cm (51,8%), 92,6% had localized lesions. Were verified 16,3% of local relapse and 13% of regional. Almost the totally of the cases corresponded to squamous cell carcinoma (97,2%). We observed smaller accumulated probability of not occurrence of local relapse when the base and borders were free of lesions (p=0,041), as well as a smaller probability of regional relapse when the sort of treatment was surgery, associated with other therapeutics modalities (p=0,001). The patients with advanced pathologic stage (p=0,016), treated with surgery associated with other therapeutics modalities (p=0,001) and diameter above 4cm (p=0,019) presented a bigger possibility of any kind of relapse. The multivariable analysis pointed the complex treatments (surgery plus other therapeutics modalities) as a predictor variable for occurrence of new local lesions (p=0,001) and total (p=0,046), besides the age above 70 years to the regional relapse (p=0,050). Conclusion: Cancer of the lip occur in the lower lip, in males, smokers and individuals exposed to Sun light. The relapse was frequent, even being localized and without great consequences to the patient s health. The probability of relapse is related to the size and borders of the lesion and to the histological exam, as well as to the patient s age and complexity of the treatment chosen

Predictors of first-year survival in patients with advanced COPD treated using long-term oxygen therapy

Little evidence-based guidance is available to aid clinicians in determining short-term prognoses in very severe COPD patients. Therefore, the present study was designed to provide a prospective assessment (1) of the mortality rates and (2) whether the baseline measurements may be determinants of 1-year mortality in hypoxemic COPD patients receiving long-term oxygen therapy (LTOT).Seventy-eight clinically stable patients with advanced COPD treated using LTOT were enrolled in a prospective cohort study. Outcome variable: first-year mortality. Baseline measurements: categorical variables: age (<60 or >= 60 years); gender; body mass index (<20 or >= 20 kg/m(2)); fat-free mass (FFM) index (<16 [men] and <15kg/m(2) [women]; baseline dyspnea index (BDI) (<= 3 or >3); and corticosteroid use. Continuous variables: smoking history; lung function; FFM; fat mass; hemoglobin; hematocrit; arterial blood gases; forearm muscle strength; St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ); and comorbidity score. By the end of 1-year of follow-up, 12 patients (15.4%) had died. Kaplan-Meier curves showed that BDI <= 3 was the only variable associated with higher mortality. Cox proportional hazards analysis revealed that tower PaO2 and SPO2, higher PaCO2 and SGRQ scores were associated with reduced survival. In the multivariate analysis, BDI remained predictive of mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 0.50; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.31-0.81), as did PaO2 (HR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.26-0.95). These data suggest that readily available parameters as dyspnea intensity and hypoxemia severity may be useful in predicting first-year survival rates in advanced COPD patients receiving LTOT (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Shorter CAG repeat length in the AR gene is associated with poor outcome in head and neck cancer

Objective: Alterations in the size of the [CAG](n) repeats of the AR gene have been described in several types tumors. The purpose of this study was to evaluate if there is an association between the AR [CAG](n) repeat alleles and the relative risk for head and neck cancer and to analyse microsatellite instability (MSI) and loss of heterozygosity (LOH) in these tumors.Design: Matched samples of blood and head and neck tumors were evaluated using two methodologies, silver-stained gels to perform the analyses of MSI and LOH, and automated analysis to confirm these results and for genotyping of the AR [CAG](n), repeat length. Sixty-nine individuals without cancer were used as a control group for both procedures. The Log-rank test was used to compare overall survival and disease-free survival curves. The Cox proportional hazards regression models were performed to determine the [CAG], repeats as an independent prognostic factor.Results: Patients with alleles <= 20 in the male group showed a correlation with lower disease-free survival (P = 0.0325) and with recurrence or metastasis (RR 2.52, CI 95%). in the female group, the allele 2 (longer allele) showed a significant lower mean of [CAG](n), repeat when compared to the control group. Microsatellite instability was detected in nine cases in both procedures. In six out of these nine cases, we observed a reduction of the AR [CAG](n) repeat length. LOH was detected in one out of 17 women informative for oral cancer in both procedures.Conclusion: These results suggest that short [CAG](n) repeat length (: 20) polymorphism is associated with poor prognosis in a subset of male patients with head and neck cancer and that AR gene microsatellite instability is uncommon in these tumors. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Human Platelet Antigen Genotype Is Associated With Progression of Fibrosis in Chronic Hepatitis C

Although progression of fibrosis in the chronic hepatitis C depends on environmental, viral, and host factors, genetic polymorphisms have been associated recently with this progression, including the expression of integrins, adhesion proteins. Some integrins expressed on the platelet membrane show polymorphic antigenic determinants called human platelet antigens (HPA), where the major ones are HPA-1, -3, -5. The association between HCV infection and HPA-5b has been demonstrated. Similarly, the HPA profile could determine if HPA is related to progression of fibrosis. The goal of this study was to evaluate the association between the frequencies of HPA-1, -3, and -5 and degree of fibrosis in HCV-infected patients. Genomic DNA from 143 HCV-infected patients was used as the source for HPA genotyping by PCR-SSP or PCR-RFLP. Progression of fibrosis was evaluated using the METAVIR scoring system, and the patients were grouped according to degree of fibrosis into G1 (n = 81, with F1, portal fibrosis without septa or F2, few septa) and G2 (n = 62, with F3, numerous septa, or F4, cirrhosis). Statistical analysis was performed using the proportional odds model. The genotypic frequency of HPA-1a/1b was significantly higher in the patients in G2. To evaluate the influence of the time of infection to the development of fibrosis and its effect on the genetic factor HPA-1, 96 patients from 143 studied were evaluated considering the time of HCV infection, and these results suggest that the HPA-1a/1b genotype promotes the development of fibrosis in HCV infection with time. J. Med. Virol. 84: 56-60, 2012. (C) 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Estudo de sobrevivência de uma coorte de pessoas de 60 anos e mais no município de Botucatu (SP) - Brasil

O aumento proporcional do número de idosos na população tem motivado estudos no sentido de melhorar a qualidade de vida desta faixa etária através de políticas sociais e, entre elas, o planejamento em saúde. Com o objetivo de conhecer riscos de mortalidade para a população de sessenta anos e mais, um estudo de sobrevida foi realizado rastreando, no ano de 1992, os idosos participantes de um inquérito de morbidade referida realizado na cidade de Botucatu em 1983/84. Foram localizados 89,6% destes idosos. Curvas de sobrevivência foram calculadas com o método de Kaplan-Meier e a análise de riscos, utilizando-se a Regressão Múltipla de Cox ajustando-se o modelo agregando as variáveis por blocos. Para o sexo masculino foram encontradas associadas, independentemente, ao aumento da mortalidade as seguintes categorias de variáveis: idade de 70 anos e mais: Hazard Ratio (HR)=2,4 (1,6 - 3,7); salário menor que um salário mínimo: HR=2,2 (1,3 - 3,8); ter outras rendas: HR=2,2 (1,3 - 3,9); ser o chefe da família ou seu cônjuge: HR=2,3 (1,2 - 2,4); referência de doenças do aparelho circulatório: HR=1,6 (1,1 - 2,4); referência de diabetes mellitus: HR=3,0 (1,3 - 7,0). Para o sexo feminino, foram encontradas associadas a idade de 70 anos e mais: HR=4,6 (3,0 - 7,1); referência de diabetes mellitus: HR=3,0 (1,7-5,3) e ter outras rendas: HR=2,0 (1,1 - 4,0).

Pathological and behavioral risk factors for higher serum c-reactive protein concentrations in free-living adults - A Brazilian community-based study

Low-grade chronic systemic inflammation is often associated with chronic non-communicable diseases, and its most frequently used marker, the C-reactive protein (CRP), has become an identifier of such diseases as well as an independent predictor for cardiovascular disorders and mortality. CRP is produced in response to pro-inflammatory signaling and to individual and behavioral factors, leading to pathological states. The aim of this study was to rank the predicting factors of high CRP concentrations in free-living adults from a community-based sample. We evaluated 522 adults (40-84 years old; 381 women) for anthropometric characteristics, dietary intake, clinical and physical tests, and blood analysis. Subjects were assigned to groups, according to CRP concentrations, as normal CRP (G1;<3.0 mg/L; n = 269), high CRP (G2; 3.0-6.0 mg/L; n = 139), and very high CRP (G3; >6.0 mg/dL; n = 116). Statistical comparison between groups used one-way ANOVA or Kruskal-Wallis tests, and prediction of altered values in increasing CRP was evaluated by proportional hazard models (odds ratio). CRP distribution was influenced by gender, body mass index, body and abdominal fatness, blood leukocytes, and neutrophil counts. The higher CRP group was discriminated by the above variables in addition to lower VO2max, serum metabolic syndrome components (triglycerides, glucose, and HDL cholesterol), higher insulin, homeostasis assessment of insulin resistance, uric acid, gamma-GT, and homocysteine. After adjustments, only fatness, blood leukocytes, and hyperglycemia remained as independent predictors for increased serum CRP concentrations. Intervention procedures to treat low-grade chronic inflammation in overweight women would mainly focus on restoring muscle mass and functions in addition to an antioxidant-rich diet. © 2012 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Absence of RKIP expression is an independent prognostic biomarker for gastric cancer patients

Gastric cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related mortality, and the presence of lymph node metastasis an important prognostic factor. Downregulation of RKIP has been associated with tumor progression and metastasis in several types of neoplasms, being currently categorized as a metastasis suppressor gene. Our aim was to determine the expression levels of RKIP in gastric tissues and to evaluate its impact in the clinical outcome of gastric carcinoma patients. RKIP expression levels were studied by immunohistochemistry in a series of gastric tissues. Overall, we analysed 222 non-neoplastic gastric tissues, 152 primary tumors and 42 lymph node metastasis samples. We observed that RKIP was highly expressed in ∼83% of non-neoplastic tissues (including normal tissue and metaplasia), was lost in ∼56% of primary tumors and in ∼90% of lymph node metastasis samples. Loss of RKIP expression was significantly associated with several markers of poor clinical outcome, including the presence of lymph node metastasis. Furthermore, the absence of RKIP protein constitutes an independent prognostic marker for these patients. In conclusion, RKIP expression is significantly lost during gastric carcinoma progression being almost absent in lymph node metastasis samples. Of note, we showed that the absence of RKIP expression is associated with poor outcome features of gastric cancer patients, this being also an independent prognostic marker.

Avaliação da carga viral do virus da hepatite C em diferentes compartimentos biológicos: influência na predição da recidiva virológica

Pós-graduação em Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento (Biotecnologia Médica) - FMB

Preditores de recidiva hemorrágica ou óbito na hemorragia digestiva alta por úlcera péptica ou lesão aguda da mucosa gastroduodenal

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Influência dos marcadores inflamatórios sobre a evolução do estado nutricional e progressão da calcificação cardiovascular em pacientes portadores de doença renal crônica tratados por hemodiálise

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Overall Survival Improvement in Patients with Lung Cancer and Bone Metastases Treated with Denosumab Versus Zoledronic Acid Subgroup Analysis from a Randomized Phase 3 Study

Introduction: Denosumab, a fully human anti-RANKL monoclonal antibody, reduces the incidence of skeletal-related events in patients with bone metastases from solid tumors. We present survival data for the subset of patients with lung cancer, participating in the phase 3 trial of denosumab versus zoledronic acid (ZA) in the treatment of bone metastases from solid tumors (except breast or prostate) or multiple myeloma. Methods: Patients were randomized 1:1 to receive monthly subcutaneous denosumab 120 mg or intravenous ZA 4 mg. An exploratory analysis, using Kaplan-Meier estimates and proportional hazards models, was performed for overall survival among patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and SCLC. Results: Denosumab was associated with improved median overall survival versus ZA in 811 patients with any lung cancer (8.9 versus 7.7 months; hazard ratio [HR] 0.80) and in 702 patients with NSCLC (9.5 versus 8.0 months; HR 0.78) (p = 0.01, each comparison). Further analysis of NSCLC by histological type showed a median survival of 8.6 months for denosumab versus 6.4 months for ZA in patients with squamous cell carcinoma (HR 0.68; p = 0.035). Incidence of overall adverse events was balanced between treatment groups; serious adverse events occurred in 66.0% of denosumab-treated patients and 72.9% of ZA-treated patients. Cumulative incidence of osteonecrosis of the jaw was similar between groups (0.7% denosumab versus 0.8% ZA). Hypocalcemia rates were 8.6% with denosumab and 3.8% with ZA. Conclusion: In this exploratory analysis, denosumab was associated with improved overall survival compared with ZA, in patients with metastatic lung cancer.

Vascular dysfunction by myofibroblast activation in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and prognostic significance

In this study, we demonstrated the importance of telomerase protein expression and determined the relationships among telomerase, endothelin-1 (ET-1) and myofibroblasts during early and late remodeling of parenchymal and vascular areas in usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) using 27 surgical lung biopsies from patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Telomerase+, myofibroblasts alpha-SMA+, smooth muscle cells caldesmon+, endothelium ET-1+ cellularity, and fibrosis severity were evaluated in 30 fields covering normal lung parenchyma, minimal fibrosis (fibroblastic foci), severe ( mural) fibrosis, and vascular areas of UIP by the point-counting technique and a semiquantitative score. The impact of these markers was determined in pulmonary functional tests and follow-up until death from IPF. Telomerase and ET-1 expression was significantly increased in normal and vascular areas compared to areas of fibroblast foci. Telomerase and ET-1 expression was inversely correlated with minimal fibrosis in areas of fibroblast foci and directly associated with severe fibrosis in vascular areas. Telomerase activity in minimal fibrosis areas was directly associated with diffusing capacity of the lung for oxygen/alveolar volume and ET-1 expression and indirectly associated with diffusing capacity of the lungs for carbon monoxide and severe fibrosis in vascular areas. Cox proportional hazards regression revealed a low risk of death for females with minimal fibrosis displaying high telomerase and ET-1 expression in normal areas. Vascular dysfunction by telomerase/ET-1 expression was found earlier than vascular remodeling by myofibroblast activation in UIP with impact on IPF evolution, suggesting that strategies aimed at preventing the effect of these mediators may have a greater impact on patient outcome.