853 resultados para Probabilistic decision process model


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The Patten’s Theory of the Environment, supposes an impotent contribution to the Theoretical Ecology. The hypothesis of the duality of environments, the creaon and genon functions and the three developed propositions are so much of great importance in the field of the Applied Mathematical as Ecology. The authors have undertaken an amplification and revision of this theory, developing the following steps: 1) A theory of processes. 2) A definition of structural and behavioural functions. 3) A probabilistic definition of the environmental functions. In this paper the authors develop the theory of behavioural functions, begin the theory of environmental functions and give a complementary focus to the theory of processes that has been developed in precedent papers.

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Following study, participants received 2 tests. The 1st was a recognition test; the 2nd was designed to tap recollection. The objective was to examine performance on Test I conditional on Test 2 performance. In Experiment 1, contrary to process dissociation assumptions, exclusion errors better predicted subsequent recollection than did inclusion errors. In Experiments 2 and 3, with alternate questions posed on Test 2, words having high estimates of recollection with one question had high estimates of familiarity with the other question. Results supported the following: (a) the 2-test procedure has considerable potential for elucidating the relationship between recollection and familiarity; (b) there is substantial evidence for dependency between such processes when estimates are obtained using the process dissociation and remember-know procedures; and (c) order of information access appears to depend on the question posed to the memory system.

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Minimal representations are known to have no redundant elements, and are therefore of great importance. Based on the notions of performance and size indices and measures for process systems, the paper proposes conditions for a process model being minimal in a set of functionally equivalent models with respect to a size norm. Generalized versions of known procedures to obtain minimal process models for a given modelling goal, model reduction based on sensitivity analysis and incremental model building are proposed and discussed. The notions and procedures are illustrated and compared on a simple example, that of a simple nonlinear fermentation process with different modelling goals and on a case study of a heat exchanger modelling. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The aim of the study presented was to implement a process model to simulate the dynamic behaviour of a pilot-scale process for anaerobic two-stage digestion of sewage sludge. The model implemented was initiated to support experimental investigations of the anaerobic two-stage digestion process. The model concept implemented in the simulation software package MATLAB(TM)/Simulink(R) is a derivative of the IWA Anaerobic Digestion Model No.1 (ADM1) that has been developed by the IWA task group for mathematical modelling of anaerobic processes. In the present study the original model concept has been adapted and applied to replicate a two-stage digestion process. Testing procedures, including balance checks and 'benchmarking' tests were carried out to verify the accuracy of the implementation. These combined measures ensured a faultless model implementation without numerical inconsistencies. Parameters for both, the thermophilic and the mesophilic process stage, have been estimated successfully using data from lab-scale experiments described in literature. Due to the high number of parameters in the structured model, it was necessary to develop a customised procedure that limited the range of parameters to be estimated. The accuracy of the optimised parameter sets has been assessed against experimental data from pilot-scale experiments. Under these conditions, the model predicted reasonably well the dynamic behaviour of a two-stage digestion process in pilot scale. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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As process management projects have increased in size due to globalised and company-wide initiatives, a corresponding growth in the size of process modeling projects can be observed. Despite advances in languages, tools and methodologies, several aspects of these projects have been largely ignored by the academic community. This paper makes a first contribution to a potential research agenda in this field by defining the characteristics of large-scale process modeling projects and proposing a framework of related issues. These issues are derived from a semi -structured interview and six focus groups conducted in Australia, Germany and the USA with enterprise and modeling software vendors and customers. The focus groups confirm the existence of unresolved problems in business process modeling projects. The outcomes provide a research agenda which directs researchers into further studies in global process management, process model decomposition and the overall governance of process modeling projects. It is expected that this research agenda will provide guidance to researchers and practitioners by focusing on areas of high theoretical and practical relevance.

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In this paper, we present a top down approach for integrated process modelling and distributed process execution. The integrated process model can be utilized for global monitoring and visualization and distributed process models for local execution. Our main focus in this paper is the presentation of the approach to support automatic generation and linking of distributed process models from an integrated process definition.

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The successful restructuring of Chinese industries is of immense importance not only for the continued development of China but also to the stability of the world economy. The transformation of the Chinese wool textile industry illustrates well the many problems and pressures currently facing most Chinese industries. The Chinese wool textile industry has undergone major upheaval and restructuring in its drive to modernize and take advantage of developments in world textile markets. Macro level ownership and administrative reforms are well advanced as is the uptake of new technology and equipment. However, the changing market and institutional environment also demands an increasing level of sophistication in mill management decisions including product selection, input procurement, product pricing, investment appraisal, cost analysis and proactive identification of new market and growth opportunities. This paper outlines a series of analyses that have been integrated into a decision-making model designed to assist mill managers with these decisions. Features of the model include a whole-of-mill approach, a design based on existing mill structures and information systems, and the capacity for the model to be tailored to individual mills. All of these features facilitate the adoption of the model by time and resource constrained managers seeking to maintain the viability of their enterprises in the face of extremely dynamic market conditions.

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This study demonstrates a quantitative approach to construction risk management through analytic hierarchy process and decision tree analysis. All the risk factors are identified, their effects are quantified by determining probability and severity, and various alternative responses are generated with cost implication for mitigating the quantified risks. The expected monetary values are then derived for each alternative in a decision tree framework and subsequent probability analysis aids the decision process in managing risks. The entire methodology is explained through a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India and its effectiveness in project management is demonstrated.

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This paper explains how strategic planning is able to deliver strategic integration within organizations. While communication and participation within planning processes are perceived to have an integrative effect, we argue that these effects are unlikely to arise simply from bringing people together. Rather, we suggest that, given the varying interests of actors in different business units, integration will only arise from active negotiations and compromises between these actors. The paper is based upon a case of strategic planning in a multinational that was attempting to develop greater strategic integration across Europe. Drawing upon an activity theory framework, we examine how a common strategy emerges over time through modifications to the planning process and to different actors’ roles within it. The findings are used to develop a process model that shows how different business unit characteristics of planning experience and relative power shape different experiences of communication and participation activities and different processes for achieving integration. The paper concludes with a discussion of how this process model contributes to the literature on strategic planning, political processes of strategy-making, and strategy-as-practice.

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The retrieval of wind vectors from satellite scatterometer observations is a non-linear inverse problem. A common approach to solving inverse problems is to adopt a Bayesian framework and to infer the posterior distribution of the parameters of interest given the observations by using a likelihood model relating the observations to the parameters, and a prior distribution over the parameters. We show how Gaussian process priors can be used efficiently with a variety of likelihood models, using local forward (observation) models and direct inverse models for the scatterometer. We present an enhanced Markov chain Monte Carlo method to sample from the resulting multimodal posterior distribution. We go on to show how the computational complexity of the inference can be controlled by using a sparse, sequential Bayes algorithm for estimation with Gaussian processes. This helps to overcome the most serious barrier to the use of probabilistic, Gaussian process methods in remote sensing inverse problems, which is the prohibitively large size of the data sets. We contrast the sampling results with the approximations that are found by using the sparse, sequential Bayes algorithm.

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Conventional structured methods of software engineering are often based on the use of functional decomposition coupled with the Waterfall development process model. This approach is argued to be inadequate for coping with the evolutionary nature of large software systems. Alternative development paradigms, including the operational paradigm and the transformational paradigm, have been proposed to address the inadequacies of this conventional view of software developement, and these are reviewed. JSD is presented as an example of an operational approach to software engineering, and is contrasted with other well documented examples. The thesis shows how aspects of JSD can be characterised with reference to formal language theory and automata theory. In particular, it is noted that Jackson structure diagrams are equivalent to regular expressions and can be thought of as specifying corresponding finite automata. The thesis discusses the automatic transformation of structure diagrams into finite automata using an algorithm adapted from compiler theory, and then extends the technique to deal with areas of JSD which are not strictly formalisable in terms of regular languages. In particular, an elegant and novel method for dealing with so called recognition (or parsing) difficulties is described,. Various applications of the extended technique are described. They include a new method of automatically implementing the dismemberment transformation; an efficient way of implementing inversion in languages lacking a goto-statement; and a new in-the-large implementation strategy.

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This research examines the role of the information management process within a process-oriented enterprise, Xerox Ltd. The research approach is based on a post-positive paradigm and has resulted in thirty-five idiographic statements. The three major outcomes are: 1. The process-oriented holistic enterprise is an organisation that requires a long-term management commitment to its development. It depends on the careful management of people, tasks, information and technology. A complex integration of business processes is required and this can be managed through the use of consistent documentation techniques, clarity in the definition of process responsibilities and management attention to the global metrics and the centralisation of the management of the process model are critical to its success. 2. The role of the information management process within the context of a process-oriented enterprise is to provide flexible and cost-effective applications, technological, and process support to the business. This is best achieved through a centralisation of the management of information management and of the process model. A business-led approach combined with the consolidation of applications, information, process, and data architectures is central to providing effective business and process-focused support. 3. In a process oriented holistic enterprise, process and information management are inextricably linked. The model of process management depends heavily on information management, whilst the model of information management is totally focused around supporting and creating the process model. The two models are mutually creating - one cannot exist without the other. There is a duality concept of process and information management.

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This research compared decision making processes in six Chinese state-owned enterprises during the period 1985 to 1988. The research objectives were: a) To examine changes in the managerial behaviour over a period of 1985 to 1988 with a focus on decision-making; b) Through this examination, to throw light on the means by which government policies on economic reform were implemented at the enterprise level; c) To illustrate problems encountered in the decentralization programme which was a major part of China's economic reform. The research was conducted by means of intensive interviews with more than eighty managers and a survey of documents relating to specific decisions. A total of sixty cases of decision-making were selected from five decision topics: purchasing of inputs, pricing of outputs, recruitment of labour, organizational change and innovation, which occurred in 1985 (or before) and in 1988/89. Data from the interviews were used to investigate environmental conditions, relations between the enterprise and its higher authority, interactions between management and the party system, the role of information, and effectiveness of regulations and government policies on enterprise management. The analysis of the data indicates that the decision processes in the different enterprises have some similarities in regard to actor involvement, the flow of decision activities, interactions with the authorities, information usage and the effect of regulations. Comparison of the same or similar decision contents over time indicates that the achievement of decentralization varied according to the topic of decision. Managerial authority was delegated to enterprises when the authorities relaxed their control over resource allocation. When acquisition of necessary resources is dependent upon the planning system or the decision matter is sensitive, because it involves change to the institutional framework (e.g. the Party), then a high degree of centralization was retained, resulting in a marginal change in managerial behaviour. The economic reform failed to increase decision efficiency and effectiveness of decision-making. The prevailing institutional frameworks were regarded as negative to the change. The research argues that the decision process is likely to be more contingent on the decision content than the organization. Three types of decision process have been conceptualized, each of them related to a certain type of decision content. This argument gives attention to the perspectives of institution and power in a way which facilitates an elaboration of organizational analysis. The problems encountered in the reform of China's industrial enterprises are identified and discussed. General recommendations for policies of further reform are offered, based on the analysis of decision process and managerial behaviour.

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The right manufacturing technology at the right time can enable an organisation to produce products that are cheaper, better, and made faster than those of the competition. Paradoxically, the wrong technology, or even the right technology poorly implemented, can be disastrous. The decision process through which practitioners acquire manufacturing technologies can significantly impact on their eventual capabilities and performance. This complete process has unfortunately received limited attention in previous studies. Therefore, the work presented in this paper has investigated leading research and industrial practices to create a formal and rational decision process, and then evaluated this through an extended and in-depth case study of a manufacturing technology acquisition. An analysis of previous literature, industrial practices, and the resulting decision process are all presented in this paper.

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Investment in capacity expansion remains one of the most critical decisions for a manufacturing organisation with global production facilities. Multiple factors need to be considered making the decision process very complex. The purpose of this paper is to establish the state-of-the-art in multi-factor models for capacity expansion of manufacturing plants within a corporation. The research programme consisting of an extensive literature review and a structured assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the current research is presented. The study found that there is a wealth of mathematical multi-factor models for evaluating capacity expansion decisions however no single contribution captures all the different facets of the problem.