An extinction-survival-type phase transition in the probabilistic cellular automaton p182-q200

We investigate the critical behaviour of a probabilistic mixture of cellular automata (CA) rules 182 and 200 (in Wolfram`s enumeration scheme) by mean-field analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. We found that as we switch off one CA and switch on the other by the variation of the single parameter of the model, the probabilistic CA (PCA) goes through an extinction-survival-type phase transition, and the numerical data indicate that it belongs to the directed percolation universality class of critical behaviour. The PCA displays a characteristic stationary density profile and a slow, diffusive dynamics close to the pure CA 200 point that we discuss briefly. Remarks on an interesting related stochastic lattice gas are addressed in the conclusions.

Uncertainties In Future Projections Of Extreme Rainfall: The Role Of Climate Model, Emission Scenario And Randomness

Climate change has resulted in substantial variations in annual extreme rainfall quantiles in different durations and return periods. Predicting the future changes in extreme rainfall quantiles is essential for various water resources design, assessment, and decision making purposes. Current Predictions of future rainfall extremes, however, exhibit large uncertainties. According to extreme value theory, rainfall extremes are rather random variables, with changing distributions around different return periods; therefore there are uncertainties even under current climate conditions. Regarding future condition, our large-scale knowledge is obtained using global climate models, forced with certain emission scenarios. There are widely known deficiencies with climate models, particularly with respect to precipitation projections. There is also recognition of the limitations of emission scenarios in representing the future global change. Apart from these large-scale uncertainties, the downscaling methods also add uncertainty into estimates of future extreme rainfall when they convert the larger-scale projections into local scale. The aim of this research is to address these uncertainties in future projections of extreme rainfall of different durations and return periods. We plugged 3 emission scenarios with 2 global climate models and used LARS-WG, a well-known weather generator, to stochastically downscale daily climate models’ projections for the city of Saskatoon, Canada, by 2100. The downscaled projections were further disaggregated into hourly resolution using our new stochastic and non-parametric rainfall disaggregator. The extreme rainfall quantiles can be consequently identified for different durations (1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 6-hour, 12-hour, 18-hour and 24-hour) and return periods (2-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year, 100-year) using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. By providing multiple realizations of future rainfall, we attempt to measure the extent of total predictive uncertainty, which is contributed by climate models, emission scenarios, and downscaling/disaggregation procedures. The results show different proportions of these contributors in different durations and return periods.

Evaluation Of Reservoir Model Integration With Deterministic And Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts

Due to the increase in water demand and hydropower energy, it is getting more important to operate hydraulic structures in an efficient manner while sustaining multiple demands. Especially, companies, governmental agencies, consultant offices require effective, practical integrated tools and decision support frameworks to operate reservoirs, cascades of run-of-river plants and related elements such as canals by merging hydrological and reservoir simulation/optimization models with various numerical weather predictions, radar and satellite data. The model performance is highly related with the streamflow forecast, related uncertainty and its consideration in the decision making. While deterministic weather predictions and its corresponding streamflow forecasts directly restrict the manager to single deterministic trajectories, probabilistic forecasts can be a key solution by including uncertainty in flow forecast scenarios for dam operation. The objective of this study is to compare deterministic and probabilistic streamflow forecasts on an earlier developed basin/reservoir model for short term reservoir management. The study is applied to the Yuvacık Reservoir and its upstream basin which is the main water supply of Kocaeli City located in the northwestern part of Turkey. The reservoir represents a typical example by its limited capacity, downstream channel restrictions and high snowmelt potential. Mesoscale Model 5 and Ensemble Prediction System data are used as a main input and the flow forecasts are done for 2012 year using HEC-HMS. Hydrometeorological rule-based reservoir simulation model is accomplished with HEC-ResSim and integrated with forecasts. Since EPS based hydrological model produce a large number of equal probable scenarios, it will indicate how uncertainty spreads in the future. Thus, it will provide risk ranges in terms of spillway discharges and reservoir level for operator when it is compared with deterministic approach. The framework is fully data driven, applicable, useful to the profession and the knowledge can be transferred to other similar reservoir systems.

Odometria visual baseada em técnicas de structure from motion

Visual Odometry is the process that estimates camera position and orientation based solely on images and in features (projections of visual landmarks present in the scene) extraced from them. With the increasing advance of Computer Vision algorithms and computer processing power, the subarea known as Structure from Motion (SFM) started to supply mathematical tools composing localization systems for robotics and Augmented Reality applications, in contrast with its initial purpose of being used in inherently offline solutions aiming 3D reconstruction and image based modelling. In that way, this work proposes a pipeline to obtain relative position featuring a previously calibrated camera as positional sensor and based entirely on models and algorithms from SFM. Techniques usually applied in camera localization systems such as Kalman filters and particle filters are not used, making unnecessary additional information like probabilistic models for camera state transition. Experiments assessing both 3D reconstruction quality and camera position estimated by the system were performed, in which image sequences captured in reallistic scenarios were processed and compared to localization data gathered from a mobile robotic platform

Projections Onto Convex Sets through Particle Swarm Optimization and its application for remote sensing image restoration

Image restoration attempts to enhance images corrupted by noise and blurring effects. Iterative approaches can better control the restoration algorithm in order to find a compromise of restoring high details in smoothed regions without increasing the noise. Techniques based on Projections Onto Convex Sets (POCS) have been extensively used in the context of image restoration by projecting the solution onto hyperspaces until some convergence criteria be reached. It is expected that an enhanced image can be obtained at the final of an unknown number of projections. The number of convex sets and its combinations allow designing several image restoration algorithms based on POCS. Here, we address two convex sets: Row-Action Projections (RAP) and Limited Amplitude (LA). Although RAP and LA have already been used in image restoration domain, the former has a relaxation parameter (A) that strongly depends on the characteristics of the image that will be restored, i.e., wrong values of A can lead to poorly restoration results. In this paper, we proposed a hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization (PS0)-POCS image restoration algorithm, in which the A value is obtained by PSO to be further used to restore images by POCS approach. Results showed that the proposed PSO-based restoration algorithm outperformed the widely used Wiener and Richardson-Lucy image restoration algorithms. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.