The Political cost of reforms

This paper formalizes in a fully-rational model the popular idea that politicians perceive an electoral cost in adopting costly reforms with future benefits and reconciles it with the evidence that reformist governments are not punished by voters. To do so, it proposes a model of elections where political ability is ex-ante unknown and investment in reforms is unobservable. On the one hand, elections improve accountability and allow to keep well-performing incumbents. On the other, politicians make too little reforms in an attempt to signal high ability and increase their reappointment probability. Although in a rational expectation equilibrium voters cannot be fooled and hence reelection does not depend on reforms, the strategy of underinvesting in reforms is nonetheless sustained by out-of-equilibrium beliefs. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, uncertainty makes reforms more politically viable and may, under some conditions, increase social welfare. The model is then used to study how political rewards can be set so as to maximize social welfare and the desirability of imposing a one-term limit to governments. The predictions of this theory are consistent with a number of empirical regularities on the determinants of reforms and reelection. They are also consistent with a new stylized fact documented in this paper: economic uncertainty is associated to more reforms in a panel of 20 OECD countries.

Political Competition in Hard Times

This paper analyzes a spatial model of political competition between two policy- motivated parties in hard times of crisis. Hard times are modeled in terms of policy- making costs carried by a newly elected party. The results predict policy divergence in equilibrium. If the ideological preferences of parties are quite diverse and extreme, there is a unique equilibrium in which the parties announce symmetric platforms and each party wins with probability one half. If one party is extreme while the other is more moderate, there is a unique equilibrium in which the parties announce asymmetric platforms. If the preferred policies of the parties are not very distinct, there are two equilibria with asymmetric platforms. An important property of equilibrium with asymmetric platforms is that a winning party necessarily announces its most preferred policy as a platform. JEL classification: D72. Keywords: Spatial model; Political competition; Two-party system; Policy-motivated parties; Hard times; Crisis.

Development of spatial integration depends on top-down and interhemispheric connections that can be perturbed in migraine: a DCM analysis.

In humans, spatial integration develops slowly, continuing through childhood into adolescence. On the assumption that this protracted course depends on the formation of networks with slowly developing top-down connections, we compared effective connectivity in the visual cortex between 13 children (age 7-13) and 14 adults (age 21-42) using a passive perceptual task. The subjects were scanned while viewing bilateral gratings, which either obeyed Gestalt grouping rules [colinear gratings (CG)] or violated them [non-colinear gratings (NG)]. The regions of interest for dynamic causal modeling were determined from activations in functional MRI contrasts stimuli > background and CG > NG. They were symmetrically located in V1 and V3v areas of both hemispheres. We studied a common model, which contained reciprocal intrinsic and modulatory connections between these regions. An analysis of effective connectivity showed that top-down modulatory effects generated at an extrastriate level and interhemispheric modulatory effects between primary visual areas (all inhibitory) are significantly weaker in children than in adults, suggesting that the formation of feedback and interhemispheric effective connections continues into adolescence. These results are consistent with a model in which spatial integration at an extrastriate level results in top-down messages to the primary visual areas, where they are supplemented by lateral (interhemispheric) messages, making perceptual encoding more efficient and less redundant. Abnormal formation of top-down inhibitory connections can lead to the reduction of habituation observed in migraine patients.

Identité et filiation : enfants enlevés-appropriés, adultes restitués dans le contexte de la dernière dictature militaire en Argentine (1976-1983)

Durant la dernière dictature argentine (1976-1983), !a junte militaire organisa le vol de nourrissons, enfants de leurs ennemis, pour qu'ils puissent être élevés dans des familles proches du pouvoir. L'association « Grands-Mères de la Place de Mai » comptabilisa environ 409 vols. Au moment de l'exploration du terrain de récherche, en 2004, une quarantaine avaient été retrouvés dans des familles qui ne connaissaient pas leurs origines tandis qu'une vingtaine étaient dans des familles liées à la junte ; c'est à cette dernière catégorie que s'intéresse ce travail. Durant leur enfance ou à l'âge adulte, ces enfants apprirent un jour la vérité sur leurs origines biologiques et la justice la leur restitua ; c'est pourquoi ils sont dits « restitués ». Cette contribution vise à interroger l'identité individuelle comme une dynamique intime qui s'articule à la filiation et s'insère dans une collectivité, une société. Trois hypothèses l'ont organisée : une première concerne la connaissance des origines biologiques et ses conséquences psychologiques identitaires, qui passe nécessairement par la justice et la société. Une deuxième hypothèse explore les éventelles conséquences traumatiques de l'enlèvement des personnes restituées et de la restitution. Enfin, la troisième hypothèse interroge le rapport de la construction identitaire à la société, qu'elle se fasse par des investissements politiques et associatifs ou par les médias et l'Histoire. Ces hypothèses nourrissent un questionnement sur les liens entre restitution et travail de symbolisation des origines. Sept entretiens semi structurés avec des personnes restituées ont. été menés puis qualitativement analysés dans une perspective que l'on peut référer, de manière large, à une « anthropologique clinique », au croisement d'une psychologie clinique éclairée par la psychanalyse et de l'anthropologie. Au travers d'une analyse approfondie de leur parcours identitaire des personnes enlevées, adoptées et restituées, ce travail se livre à une recherche empirique sur la construction identitaire. Le concept de transmission se trouve mobilisé, qui concerne l'inscription de l'individu dans la subjectivité d'un couple avec le prénom, dans une lignée ou dans un collectif avec le choix professionnel ou les liens avec l'association « Grands-Mères de la Place Mai ». De plus, la thèse apporte une contribution à la compréhension des enjeux du clivage, des blessures primitive et narcissique, des processus d'affiliation et des secrets de famille et propose également de penser, en prolongement, les enjeux de la « défiliation » et de I'« amalgame ». La question du traumatisme, de sa répétition et de son élaboration, ainsi que celle des facteurs de resilience sont également discutées. Ce travail ouvre sur une réflexion plus large du concept d'identité. - During the last dictatorship in Argentina (1976-1983), the military junta organized the kidnapping of infants - children of its enemies - in order to raise them in families close to the authorities. The association "Mothers of the Plaza de Mayo" estimates that approximately 400 children have been kidnapped in this way. During their childhood, or as adults, they have come to learn the truth about their biological origins, restituted to them by justice: They are therefore known as "restituted" children. At the time of the field research in 2004, around 40 children had been found in families unaware of their origins. About 20 other came from families close to the junta. The present work is particularly interested in the latter category. This contribution investigates the individual identity as an intimate dynamics by examining its articulation with filiation and its insertion within a community, a society. It revolves around three hypotheses: the first concerns the knowledge - necessarily transmitted through justice and society - of biological origins and its psychological consequences on the identity. The second explores the eventually traumatic, consequences of kidnapping and restitution among the restituted persons. Finally, the third hypothesis questions the relation between identity construction and society, whether it is made through political and associative involvements, media or History. These hypotheses lead to the examination of affiliations between restitution and symbolization process of the origins. Seven semi-structured interviews with restituted persons have been conducted and qualitatively analyzed in a perspective that can, in a large sense, be referred to as "clinical anthropology": an approach/intersection between clinical psychology, psychoanalysis and anthropology. Through an in-depth analysis of the identity itinerary of the kidnapped, adopted and restituted persons, this work is conducted as an empirical research on identity construction. For that purpose, it uses the concept of transmission to describe an individual's affiliation with the subjectivity of a couple through the first name, with a lineage or a community through professional choices or through his/her connections with the association "Mothers of the Plaza de Mayo". Further, it makes a meaningful contribution to the understanding and implications of the notions of cleavage, of primal and narcissistic wounds, of processes of affiliation and of family secrets. In addition, it also proposes a reflection on and the implication of the notions of "deviation" and "amalgam". The question of trauma, its repetition and elaboration, and of resilience factors are aiso being discussed. This work concludes with results in a iarger consideration of the concept of identity.

Spiritual Kinship, Political Mobilization and Social Cooperation: a Swiss Alpine valley in the Eighteenth and Nineteenth Centuries

In this chapter I will present some observations and results about Ritual Kinship and political mobilization of popular groups in an Alpine valley: the Val de Bagnes, in the Swiss canton of Valais, - a mountain valley, well known today thanks to the tourist station of Verbier - where we can rely on excellent sources about local families. This region presents a particular political situation, because the 11 major villages of the valley form only one commune, which includes the whole valley.¦There are two major reasons to choose the Val de Bagnes for our inquiry on kinship and social networks in a rural society:¦A. The existence of sharp political and social conflicts during the 18th and the 19th centuries;¦B. The existence of almost systematic genealogical data between 1700 and 1900. (Casanova, Gard, Perrenoud 2005-08)¦The 18th century was characterized by the struggle of an important part of the community of Bagnes against the feudal lord, the abbot of St-Maurice. The culminating point was a local upheaval in 1745 in Le Châble, during which the abbot was forced to sign several documents in accordance with the wishes of the rebels (Guzzi-Heeb 2007). In the 19th century feudal lordship was abolished, but now the struggle confronted a liberal-radical faction and the conservative majority in the commune.¦The starting point of my presentation focuses on this question: which role did spiritual kinship play in the political mobilization of popular groups and in the organization of competing factions? This question allows us to shed light on some utilizations and meanings of spiritual kinship in the local society. Was spiritual kinship a significant instrument for economic cooperation? Or was it a channel for privileged social contacts and transactions?