Post-1988 civil-military relations in Myanmar

This paper explores the development of civil–military relations in Myanmar since 1988. After the Tatmadaw (Myanmar Armed Forces) took over the state by means of a coup d’état in 1988, the top generals ruled the country without recourse to significant formal political institutions such as a constitution, elections and parliament. A unique authoritarian regime, where political power was predominantly under the military’s influence, lasted for more than 20 years in the country. It seemed to many observers that the military regime was highly durable and that its dictator, General Than Shwe, had no intention of altering the highly repressive character of the political system. However, a new leader, President Thein Sein, who came to power in March 2011, has decided to implement some political and economic reforms that could undermine the Tatmadaw’s dominant role in politics and the economy. This paper examines the background to this sudden political change in Myanmar, focusing on the relationship between its dictator, the military and the state. This paper’s main argument is that Than Shwe has carefully prepared the transition of 2011 as a generational change in the Tatmadaw and in state leadership. The argument is also made that the challenges created by Thein Sein can be understood as a result of his redefinition of national security and balancing of security-centralism with state-led developmentalism.

Regime survival strategies and the conduct of foreign policy in Egypt

エジプトではムバーラク大統領の国内政策と域内におけるエジプトの影響力低迷が引き金となって、2011年1月25日に抗議運動起こった。抗議運動はエジプト全土に拡がり、18日間の民衆的な反体制運動によってムバーラクは軍に見捨てられ、失脚に追い込まれた。この民衆蜂起によって警察は街頭から撤退し、シナイ半島の警察署は焼き放たれ、ムバーラクが率いていた国民民主党の建物や国内治安機関の本部は襲撃され、国家機関が数ヶ月にもわたって機能不全となり、ムバーラク体制の崩壊は国内的な混乱を招くこととなった。振り返れば、エジプトでの政治的大変動は社会的な革命へと展開することはできなかった。その理由は独裁体制からの移行を先導できる組織化された反体制勢力が存在しなかったためである。民衆による抗議運動は一時的に体制を転覆できても旧体制のエリートを分裂させることはできず、軍の影響下にある体制の復活を防ぐこともできなかった。2011年以降のエジプトは現在まで混乱状態に陥ったままであるが、1カ月に及ぶエジプト軍最高評議会(SCAF)の暫定統治、エジプト史上初の自由な大統領選挙によって選出された文民大統領のムルスィーによる一年余りの統治、そして2013年7月の軍事クーデターによって権力の座に就いたスィースィーの統治といった過程で、民衆蜂起がエジプトの外交関係に及ぼした影響はごく僅かであった。本稿は、現在のエジプトの外交政策が2011年の革命にほとんど影響を受けていないのはなぜか、またエジプトの統治者たちが政権の正統性、体制の強化および政治的な安定性を確保し、国内的な課題に対処するための戦略をいかに策定しているのかを説明することを試みる。本稿での主張は、ムバーラク以降のエジプトが体制の強化と保全のために外交政策を進めており、国内的な混乱によって地域内アクターへの依存度が高まっていることである。

中国と湾岸を結ぶ南アジア -- パキスタン・アフガニスタンの動向と関連させて

Pakistan is geographically situated between China and the Gulf. In order to balance its strategic position against the major security threat of India, Pakistan formed a special and stable strategic alliance with China against common threats since the period of the cold war even though the two countries have neither a political ideology nor political system in common. On the other hand Pakistan established another special relation with Saudi Arabia on the basis of Islamic identity. With its expanding economic capacity, China proposed a project by the name of "new silk road economic corridor" with the intention of expanding and multiplying trade routes with the Middle East and Europe. Within this framework Pakistan is expected to expand the role of an alternative land route that connects the Gulf and China for use if unfavorable emergencies occur in the Malacca route. However, the continuous political uncertainty in Afghanistan after the pullout of US-NATO fighting forces at the end of 2014 and sporadic outbreaks of terrorist acts by Pakistan Taliban in Pakistan have increased China's anxiety regarding Uyghur issues at home. Avoiding military options for the moment, China is trying to find ways to play an active role in the security issues of Afghanistan with help from Pakistan if available. On the other hand, it is noteworthy that the Pakistani government formed in the general election of 2008 completed its full term and transferred authority to the newly elected government in 2013, something never observed before in Pakistan's history. Coincidently, in Afghanistan the presidential election was carried out peacefully in 2014 in spite of the Taliban threat. Although it is too early to make any definite conclusion, constitutional processes, in spite of their defects, reflected to some extent wishes for normal life of the people of Pakistan and Afghanistan who were disgusted with weak governance and the prevalence of terrorism.

エジプトにおける軍の経済活動 -- スィースィー体制での役割

Since the second transition period started July 2013, the Egyptian armed forces have once again played a critical role in building a new political system. Although the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) had not come to the front this time, it controlled the transition process and succeeded in keeping the privileges of the military in both political and economic fields. This paper focuses on the economic role of the military under the regime of Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Large scale economic activity of the military started in the mid-1970s. The military expanded its grip on the domestic economy and became one of the largest producers in Egyptian civil industry. In addition to controlling a huge business empire, the military under the Sisi administration is an entity supportive of national development goals. As the backer of the current regime, the armed forces have taken on a new responsibility as a central role player in economic development.

トルコにおける2015年総選挙とエルドアン体制の政策変容

In Turkey, the political system in which Recep Tayyip Erdoğan plays the most important role – the "Erdoğan regime" – has been in place since November 2002. After Erdoğan’s party, the Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP), won the general elections and he became the prime minster, they were successful in maintaining the single-party administration over ten years. Even since becoming the president and devolving the premiership to Ahmet Davutoğlu in August 2014, Erdoğan has been at the center of the Turkish parliamentary system. However, in the Turkish general elections in June 2015, the AKP failed to get a majority of parliamentary seats for the first time, and the Erdoğan regime seemed to be faced with a crisis. The regime was able to regain the single-party administration in the early general elections in November 2015 by carrying out significant political change after their first electoral defeat. In this sense, for Turkey and the Erdoğan regime, the year 2015 was not only the year of the election, but also of political change. This paper analyzes these two general elections in 2015 and the changes of the political tendencies of the Erdoğan regime which have been observed since the general elections in June 2015 in particular. It also focuses on the changes in the strategies and the relationships among Turkish political actors including President Erdoğan, the AKP government, and the other major political parties.

SANTIFICAR A JAVÉ UM ESTUDO DE ISAÍAS 8,11-15

Esta pesquisa visa analisar a mensagem de Javé transmitida através do profeta Isaías em meio à guerra siro-efraimita (734-732 a.C.), no tempo do rei Acaz. A primeira parte deste trabalho fornece uma panorâmica histórica da situação tanto internacional quanto nacional da nação de Judá. No meio de sinais de guerras, invasões estrangeiras, desolação e aumento de tributos que acarretam maior insegurança para os setores mais empobrecidos, Javé faz sua aposta pela vida de Israel. Através do oráculo profético mo stra um caminho que pode chegar a subverter a ordem de um injusto sistema político advindo do próprio pecado da nação de Israel. Neste texto, santificar a Javé é a trilha que pode livrar-lhes da queda e da destruição. Santificar a Javé significa cuidar e preservar a vida, especialmente dos mais desprotegidos. Isto implica optar conscientemente por uma nova ordem que garanta uma existência digna para todos e todas. O objetivo desta pesquisa é entender como o conceito de santificação salientado pelo profeta Isaías, na perícope (Is 8,11-15), pode ajudar-nos a superar os problemas cotidianos e fornecer-nos novas posturas éticas para enfrentar a vida, isto é um conceito de santificação que requer do engajamento com o povo, fundamentalmente com a população mais carente e necessitada atualmente. Por meio do trabalho exegético tentamos encontrar respostas escondidas entre palavras, termos e frases, procurando entender o texto em diálogo com a vida cotidiana de seu tempo e do nosso. Este estudo pretende providenciar subsídios para a leitura popular da Bíblia que está sendo realizada por muitos grupos nas igrejas e comunidades cristãs, que buscam novos caminhos, horizontes, sonhos e utopias para continuar a viver em meio de sociedades em crises e de tempos difíceis.(AU)

SANTIFICAR A JAVÉ UM ESTUDO DE ISAÍAS 8,11-15

Esta pesquisa visa analisar a mensagem de Javé transmitida através do profeta Isaías em meio à guerra siro-efraimita (734-732 a.C.), no tempo do rei Acaz. A primeira parte deste trabalho fornece uma panorâmica histórica da situação tanto internacional quanto nacional da nação de Judá. No meio de sinais de guerras, invasões estrangeiras, desolação e aumento de tributos que acarretam maior insegurança para os setores mais empobrecidos, Javé faz sua aposta pela vida de Israel. Através do oráculo profético mo stra um caminho que pode chegar a subverter a ordem de um injusto sistema político advindo do próprio pecado da nação de Israel. Neste texto, santificar a Javé é a trilha que pode livrar-lhes da queda e da destruição. Santificar a Javé significa cuidar e preservar a vida, especialmente dos mais desprotegidos. Isto implica optar conscientemente por uma nova ordem que garanta uma existência digna para todos e todas. O objetivo desta pesquisa é entender como o conceito de santificação salientado pelo profeta Isaías, na perícope (Is 8,11-15), pode ajudar-nos a superar os problemas cotidianos e fornecer-nos novas posturas éticas para enfrentar a vida, isto é um conceito de santificação que requer do engajamento com o povo, fundamentalmente com a população mais carente e necessitada atualmente. Por meio do trabalho exegético tentamos encontrar respostas escondidas entre palavras, termos e frases, procurando entender o texto em diálogo com a vida cotidiana de seu tempo e do nosso. Este estudo pretende providenciar subsídios para a leitura popular da Bíblia que está sendo realizada por muitos grupos nas igrejas e comunidades cristãs, que buscam novos caminhos, horizontes, sonhos e utopias para continuar a viver em meio de sociedades em crises e de tempos difíceis.(AU)

O instituto do veto presidencial no constitucionalismo brasileiro contemporâneo

Nos Estados republicanos modernos, o sistema de freios e contrapesos é um dos modelos institucionais responsável por assegurar o equilíbrio entre os Poderes e prevenir abusos por parte dos governantes. Dois questionamentos podem ser encontrados na literatura brasileira sobre o tema e fundamentam esta Dissertação: um geral sobre o suposto poder excessivo que o nosso sistema político confere ao Poder Executivo e outro, específico, de que nesse contexto, o veto teria um papel central na supremacia do presidente da república sobre o Congresso Nacional no âmbito do processo legislativo. Partindo dessas premissas, a pesquisa avalia se essas características estão condizentes com as expectativas e o desenho institucional proposto para o Estado brasileiro pela Assembleia Nacional Constituinte ANC de 1987. Com base nos anais da ANC e em referências históricas, conclui-se que, ao menos no tocante ao instituto do veto presidencial, o modelo de preponderância do Poder Executivo observado no processo legislativo decorreu de uma opção deliberada e reafirmada pela elite política em 1988, quando da promulgação da Constituição.

A sanção jurídica da sociedade

A teoria dos sistemas sociais autorreferenciais é uma teoria sociológica inovadora. Na verdade, trata-se de uma superteoria baseada em premissas construtivistas que se pretende universal, ou seja, capaz de descrever qualquer fenômeno social, incluindo as teorias rivais. O criador da teoria, o sociólogo alemão Niklas Luhmann, escreveu obras sobre uma grande variedade de temas: desde do Direito até a Arte; de uma teoria geral dos sistemas sociais até uma teoria abrangente da sociedade. Como uma teoria de base construtivista, a teoria dos sistemas sociais autorreferenciais observa observações, mais especificamente, observa comunicações. A teoria adota, assim, um fundamento teórico singular que exige novas descrições dos fenômenos sociais, ainda que já tenham sido exaustivamente estudados. Esse é o caso de sanções legais. Luhmann, contudo, não fornece uma descrição sistêmica das sanções legais. Ao invés disso, usa o termo de maneiras diferentes em seus estudos. As sanções a que ele se refere em seus estudos sobre o sistema político parecem estar mais relacionadas à violência física do que aquelas que ele mencionou ao descrever o sistema jurídico. Esta indefinição é, provavelmente, fruto do que chamei \"noção comum de sanção\". A noção comum, menos do que um conceito de sanção, é o acumulado de séculos de esforços para definir medidas de controle social. Portanto, além de vaga, a noção comum de sanção é baseada em premissas que são estranhas à teoria dos sistemas sociais. Assim, é necessária uma nova descrição dos fenômenos sociais associados à noção comum de sanção, a fim de expandir as possibilidades da teoria dos sistemas sociais. A observação desses fenômenos do ponto de vista da teoria dos sistemas sociais autorreferenciais resultou na descrição de não apenas uma, mas de quatro estruturas sociais diferentes. A primeira foi identificada como sanção simbiótica e pode ser tanto negativa - se associada ao uso da violência - como positiva - se associado à satisfação das necessidades. A segunda é o programa do sistema jurídico que cumpre a função de memória no sistema, mantendo assim as expectativas normativas. A terceira estrutura é uma variação da segunda; são programas oriundos dos processos legais que também cumprem função de memória. Estes programas diferem das sanções simbióticas na distância do uso da violência física. Enquanto a sanção simbiótica demonstra claramente a sua conexão com a violência frente à desobediência, os programas apontam para outros programas sancionatórios antes de se referirem à violência física. De um modo muito diferente, o quarto tipo de estrutura social, os programas sancionatórios de exclusão, identificados com as penas privativas de liberdade, estão intimamente ligados à violência física. Estes programas, embora realizem também a função de memória, cumprem outra função: a gestão de exclusão na sociedade moderna.

Reforma del estado como mecanismo de control en democracia delegativa: caso reforma judicial Ecuador 2007-2014

The object of this doctoral thesis is the analysis of the political and administrative purpose that is given to the reform process of a vital sector of State powers within the framework of delegate democracy, such as the administration of Justice. The object is also to analyze if State reform in a diminished or non-liberal surrounding increase or improve conditions of democracy in a given situation, based on the constitutional “what should be”, or if what occurs is a process of “seizure” of the functions of State, which becomes an institutional risk. Finally, we will examine the real and effective existence of a horizontal accountability process through the use of institutional resources, which would evidence the existence of an incomplete model of democracy. This analysis implies the relationship between two institutions within public administration: State Reform, as an act of change in State structure in order to improve qualitatively the outcomes and outputs of public policies, and in sum, to make the system work better. This, as it will be examined later, is the case of Latin America as a response of the State to three processes in crisis: fiscal, as in government intervention or in the form of bureaucratic administration. In that scheme of things, this thesis examines the present state of the art in public administration science of this process to prove that in delegate democracy, this type of instruments disregard the constitutive elements of democracy and serve, especially in critical areas of the administration, allowing for Power to dismiss Law. This research seeks to contribute towards an area seldom analyzed regarding public administration doctrine under the light of the theory of law, which is the connection between previous conditions or principal inputs of an execution process of a democracy and, on the other hand, regarding the effects of introducing a reform within models of a changing democracy and new concepts of the rule of law. While reviewing writings regarding State reform, it is clear that no approximations have been previously made in reference to prior conditions of the political system in order to begin operating a reform which respects fundamental rights as an object of this procedure. Furthermore, no analysis has been found regarding structural change of strategic areas in State services as to the effect caused on democratic exercise and the outcome in an open society...

Crisis política y juventud en España: el declive del bipartidismo electoral

This paper shows the increasing trend of Spanish young people towards non-conventional mechanisms of political expression, in a crisis context which has reduced its reliance on traditional political actors. As an alternative to bipartisanship, political participation moves towards increased interest and attention to new players, such as emergent political parties. Using a covariance structural model, factors such as political activism, awareness and understanding of country problems, and trust in the political system, are explored in order to explain an electoral behavior that is undergoing deep changes.

María Cristina de Borbón y María Cristina de Habsburgo: dos regentes entre los modos aristocráticos y los burgueses

En el siglo XIX, la función política primordial de las reinas era contribuir a la estabilidad y perpetuación de la dinastía y de la corona, como esposas de reyes y madres de futuros reyes; mantener el buen funcionamiento del sistema político como regentes y, como reinas madre, dar de nuevo credibilidad a la monarquía dejando paso a los nuevos reyes. María Cristina de Borbón y María Cristina de Habsburgo fueron dos mujeres, dos reinas, que vieron condicionada su trayectoria personal por el hecho de ser regentes y su labor política por el hecho de ser mujeres. A medida que avanzaba el siglo XIX, las familias reales se mostraron de forma creciente como familias burguesas, para contribuir a ofrecer una imagen próxima y moderna de la corona. Sin embargo, las diferencias en este sentido entre las dos reinas son destacables, pues los modelos de género evolucionaron a lo largo de la centuria. Por otra parte, encarnaron dos momentos muy diferentes de la monarquía decimonónica: el punto de partida –una monarquía absoluta– y el de llegada –una monarquía constitucional–. María Cristina de Borbón, con mucha angustia personal y pánico a la revolución, vivió, muy a su pesar, el tránsito definitivo entre el Antiguo Régimen y el régimen liberal, mientras que María Cristina de Habsburgo ocupó el trono en la época dorada de la Restauración liberal, aunque su regencia tuvo que afrontar la crisis de finales de siglo.

Ten Years of EU Membership – The Maltese Parliament. Occasional Paper 1/2014

Introduction. The European Union has long seen the use of enlargement as a means to transform its neighbours. For many of the 2004 enlargement countries, membership was a means to open economically and politically. For Malta and Cyprus, established democracies with extensive trade links across Europe, EU membership still had the capacity to transform their political and economic systems and hence the need, a decade on, to take stock. With this in mind and conscious that the EU political system has often raised concerns over legitimacy and accountability, attention is increasingly being focused on how the complexities of the EU political system, and the role national governments play in that system, impacts the legitimacy and accountability of the domestic political system, in particular the functioning of the national parliament. To this end, this paper will analyse how the Maltese Parliament has been impacted by membership and seek to establish whether there has been a significant alteration in its ability to hold the national executive to account.

Under the veneer of decentralisation. Ukraine's modernisation efforts stall due to lack of local government reform. OSW Commentary No. 102, 2013-02-12

President Viktor Yanukovych and his Party of Regions have been repeating the pledge to decentralise power in Ukraine and to give local government a greater decision-making role ever since the party appeared on the Ukrainian political scene. The implementation of this reform is crucial both for the economic recovery of Ukraine’s regions and the overall modernisation efforts of the Ukrainian state. At present relations between central government and the regions are regulated by Soviet-era legislation that fails to address the modern-day challenges facing Ukraine. The political elite in the country, including the opposition, appear to have reached consensus on the importance of the decentralisation reform. The first attempts to implement changes in this area were made in the late 1990s, followed by a comprehensive reform programme developed between 2007 and 2009 by Yulia Tymoshenko’s government. In 2012, the Constitutional Assembly under the President of Ukraine appointed a team of experts who drafted a document detailing the reform of local government and the territorial organisation of power1. The document envisages the implementation of what effectively are two major reforms: (1) an administrative-territorial reform, which would help consolidate the fragmented administrative structure, creating larger and more economically self-sufficient administrative units, and (2) local government reform, focusing on creating clearly defined powers for local authorities with a view to securing government funding for specific tasks delegated from central government. Nonetheless, despite these measures, and in spite of the rhetoric coming from President Yanukovych and other members of the Party of Regions, it seems unlikely that the reform will be implemented in the foreseeable future. A series of concrete political decisions taken by the president over the past three years indicate that Yanukovych has not abandoned his plan to build a highly centralised political system. This in turn limits the capacity to govern of local authorities and further restricts the sources of funding for Ukraine’s regions. This apparent resistance to change stems from the fact that by implementing the proposed reforms, the president and his political allies would be forced to relinquish much of their control over the political processes taking place in the country and would have to free up the distribution of budgetary resources between Kyiv and the regions. The implementation of the reform within the specified timeframe (i.e. by 2015) is also unlikely due to the upcoming presidential election and the deteriorating economic situation in Ukraine. Without a comprehensive reform of local government, however, Ukraine will be unable to undertake effective modernisation measures, which are key for the socio-economic development of the country’s regions.

Belarus 2006. OSW Report, January 2007

The presidential election of 19 March 2006, which Alyaksandr Lukashenka won, played an important role in developing the dictatorial political regime in Belarus. In order to ensure Lukashenka's victory, the authorities employed repressive and undemocratic methods, which since then have become permanent elements of the political system in Belarus. They included legal and administrative measures to limit the citizens' freedom, arbitrary ways of applying these measures, actions by the state security institutions intended to intimidate the public, a large-scale state propaganda campaign, and restrictions on civil liberties and freedom of speech. The presidential election strengthened Alyaksandr Lukashenka's political position, as the president extended his rule by another five years to 2011. It also reinforced the repression apparatus, consolidated the ruling group and ensured that the democrats remained marginalised. This has ensured the stability of the Belarusian regime and preserved the country's specific political and economic system.This report aims to present the situation in Belarus since the presidential election in March 2006. Part I, devoted to the internal situation, is a description of the internal political scene, i.e. the ruling camp and the opposition. It also includes a section on the prevailing moods in Belarusian society. Another section presents the economic situation in Belarus and the government's economic policy.Part II examines the foreign relations of Belarus, and consists of two sections: the first describes the Belarusian government's relations with Russia, its single most important foreign partner, and the second its relations with Western countries, i.e. the EU member states and NATO countries. Finally, the last part contains predictions of future developments in Belarus.