Credit risk contributions under the Vasicek one-factor model: a fast wavelet expansion approximation

To measure the contribution of individual transactions inside the total risk of a credit portfolio is a major issue in financial institutions. VaR Contributions (VaRC) and Expected Shortfall Contributions (ESC) have become two popular ways of quantifying the risks. However, the usual Monte Carlo (MC) approach is known to be a very time consuming method for computing these risk contributions. In this paper we consider the Wavelet Approximation (WA) method for Value at Risk (VaR) computation presented in [Mas10] in order to calculate the Expected Shortfall (ES) and the risk contributions under the Vasicek one-factor model framework. We decompose the VaR and the ES as a sum of sensitivities representing the marginal impact on the total portfolio risk. Moreover, we present technical improvements in the Wavelet Approximation (WA) that considerably reduce the computational effort in the approximation while, at the same time, the accuracy increases.

Statistical evaluation of the influence of writing postures on on-line signatures. Study of the impact of time.

The aim of this study is to investigate the influence of unusual writing positions on a person's signature, in comparison to a standard writing position. Ten writers were asked to sign their signature six times, in each of four different writing positions, including the standard one. In order to take into consideration the effect of the day-to-day variation, this same process was repeated over 12 sessions, giving a total of 288 signatures per subject. The signatures were collected simultaneously in an off-line and on-line acquisition mode, using an interactive tablet and a ballpoint pen. Unidimensional variables (height to width ratio; time with or without in air displacement) and time-dependent variables (pressure; X and Y coordinates; altitude and azimuth angles) were extracted from each signature. For the unidimensional variables, the position effect was assessed through ANOVA and Dunnett contrast tests. Concerning the time-dependent variables, the signatures were compared by using dynamic time warping, and the position effect was evaluated through classification by linear discriminant analysis. Both of these variables provided similar results: no general tendency regarding the position factor could be highlighted. The influence of the position factor varies according to the subject as well as the variable studied. The impact of the session factor was shown to cover the impact that could be ascribed to the writing position factor. Indeed, the day-to-day variation has a greater effect than the position factor on the studied signature variables. The results of this study suggest guidelines for best practice in the area of signature comparisons and demonstrate the importance of a signature collection procedure covering an adequate number of sampling sessions, with a sufficient number of samples per session.

Leukemic cluster growth in culture is an independent risk factor for acute myeloid leukemia and short survival in patients with myelodysplastic syndrome

In patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) precursor cell cultures (colony-forming unit cells, CFU-C) can provide an insight into the growth potential of malignant myeloid cells. In a retrospective single-center study of 73 untreated MDS patients we assessed whether CFU-C growth patterns were of prognostic value in addition to established criteria. Abnormalities were classified as qualitative (i.e. leukemic cluster growth) or quantitative (i.e. strongly reduced/absent growth). Thirty-nine patients (53%) showed leukemic growth, 26 patients (36%) had strongly reduced/absent colony growth, and 12 patients showed both. In a univariate analysis the presence of leukemic growth was associated with strongly reduced survival (at 10 years 4 vs. 34%, p = 0.004), and a high incidence of transformation to AML (76 vs. 32%, p = 0.01). Multivariate analysis identified leukemic growth as a strong and independent predictor of early death (relative risk 2.12, p = 0.03) and transformation to AML (relative risk 2.63, p = 0.04). Quantitative abnormalities had no significant impact on the disease course. CFU- C assays have significant predictive value in addition to established prognostic factors in MDS. Leukemic growth identifies a subpopulation of MDS patients with poor prognosis.

Impact of reduced cerebral perfusion pressure on outcome after severe traumatic brain injury is dependent on brain tissue oxygen pressure

INTRODUCTION. Reduced cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP) may worsen secondary damage and outcome after severe traumatic brain injury (TBI), however the optimal management of CPP is still debated. STUDY HYPOTHESIS: We hypothesized that the impact of CPP on outcome is related to brain tissue oxygen tension (PbtO2) level and that reduced CPP may worsen TBI prognosis when it is associated with brain hypoxia. DESIGN. Retrospective analysis of prospective database. METHODS. We analyzed 103 patients with severe TBI who underwent continuous PbtO2 and CPP monitoring for an average of 5 days. For each patient, duration of reduced CPP (\60 mm Hg) and brain hypoxia (PbtO2\15 mm Hg for[30 min [1]) was calculated with linear interpolation method and the relationship between CPP and PbtO2 was analyzed with Pearson's linear correlation coefficient. Outcome at 30 days was assessed with the Glasgow Outcome Score (GOS), dichotomized as good (GOS 4-5) versus poor (GOS 1-3). Multivariable associations with outcome were analyzed with stepwise forward logistic regression. RESULTS. Reduced CPP (n=790 episodes; mean duration 10.2 ± 12.3 h) was observed in 75 (74%) patients and was frequently associated with brain hypoxia (46/75; 61%). Episodes where reduced CPP were associated with normal brain oxygen did not differ significantly between patients with poor versus those with good outcome (8.2 ± 8.3 vs. 6.5 ± 9.7 h; P=0.35). In contrast, time where reduced CPP occurred simultaneously with brain hypoxia was longer in patients with poor than in those with good outcome (3.3±7.4 vs. 0.8±2.3 h; P=0.02). Outcome was significantly worse in patients who had both reduced CPP and brain hypoxia (61% had GOS 1-3 vs. 17% in those with reduced CPP but no brain hypoxia; P\0.01). Patients in whom a positive CPP-PbtO2 correlation (r[0.3) was found also were more likely to have poor outcome (69 vs. 31% in patients with no CPP-PbtO2 correlation; P\0.01). Brain hypoxia was an independent risk factor of poor prognosis (odds ratio for favorable outcome of 0.89 [95% CI 0.79-1.00] per hour spent with a PbtO2\15 mm Hg; P=0.05, adjusted for CPP, age, GCS, Marshall CT and APACHE II). CONCLUSIONS. Low CPP may significantly worsen outcome after severe TBI when it is associated with brain tissue hypoxia. PbtO2-targeted management of CPP may optimize TBI therapy and improve outcome of head-injured patients.

Vascular-endothelial-growth-factor (VEGF) targeting therapies for endocrine refractory or resistant metastatic breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Vascular-endothelial-growth-factor (VEGF) is a key mediator of angiogenesis. VEGF-targeting therapies have shown significant benefits and been successfully integrated in routine clinical practice for other types of cancer, such as metastatic colorectal cancer. By contrast, individual trial results in metastatic breast cancer (MBC) are highly variable and their value is controversial. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the benefits (in progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS)) and harms (toxicity) of VEGF-targeting therapies in patients with hormone-refractory or hormone-receptor negative metastatic breast cancer. SEARCH METHODS: Searches of CENTRAL, MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Breast Cancer Group's Specialised Register, registers of ongoing trials and proceedings of conferences were conducted in January and September 2011, starting in 2000. Reference lists were scanned and members of the Cochrane Breast Cancer Group, experts and manufacturers of relevant drug were contacted to obtain further information. No language restrictions were applied. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) to evaluate treatment benefit and non-randomised studies in the routine oncology practice setting to evaluate treatment harms. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We performed data collection and analysis according to the published protocol. Individual patient data was sought but not provided. Therefore, the meta-analysis had to be based on published data. Summary statistics for the primary endpoint (PFS) were hazard ratios (HRs). MAIN RESULTS: We identified seven RCTs, one register, and five ongoing trials from a total of 347 references. The published trials for VEGF-targeting drugs in MBC were limited to bevacizumab. Four trials, including a total of 2886 patients, were available for the comparison of first-line chemotherapy, with versus without bevacizumab. PFS (HR 0.67; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.61 to 0.73) and response rate were significantly better for patients treated with bevacizumab, with moderate heterogeneity regarding the magnitude of the effect on PFS. For second-line chemotherapy, a smaller, but still significant benefit in terms of PFS could be demonstrated for patients treated with bevacizumab (HR 0.85; 95% CI 0.73 to 0.98), as well as a benefit in tumour response. However, OS did not differ significantly, neither in first- (HR 0.93; 95% CI 0.84 to 1.04), nor second-line therapy (HR 0.98; 95% CI 0.83 to 1.16). Quality of life (QoL) was evaluated in four trials but results were published for only two of these with no relevant impact. Subgroup analysis stated a significant greater benefit for patients with previous (taxane) chemotherapy and patients with hormone-receptor negative status. Regarding toxicity, data from RCTs and registry data were consistent and in line with the known toxicity profile of bevacizumab. While significantly higher rates of adverse events (AEs) grade III/IV (odds ratio (OR) 1.77; 95% CI 1.44 to 2.18) and serious adverse events (SAEs) (OR 1.41; 95% CI 1.13 to 1.75) were observed in patients treated with bevacizumab, rates of treatment-related deaths were lower in patients treated with bevacizumab (OR 0.60; 95% CI 0.36 to 0.99). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The overall patient benefit from adding bevacizumab to first- and second-line chemotherapy in metastatic breast cancer can at best be considered as modest. It is dependent on the type of chemotherapy used and limited to a prolongation of PFS and response rates in both first- and second-line therapy, both surrogate parameters. In contrast, bevacizumab has no significant impact on the patient-related secondary outcomes of OS or QoL, which indicate a direct patient benefit. For this reason, the clinical value of bevacizumab for metastatic breast cancer remains controversial.

Leukemic cluster growth in culture is an independent risk factor for acute myeloid leukemia and short survival in patients with myelodysplastic syndrome.

In patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) precursor cell cultures (colony-forming unit cells, CFU-C) can provide an insight into the growth potential of malignant myeloid cells. In a retrospective single-center study of 73 untreated MDS patients we assessed whether CFU-C growth patterns were of prognostic value in addition to established criteria. Abnormalities were classified as qualitative (i.e. leukemic cluster growth) or quantitative (i.e. strongly reduced/absent growth). Thirty-nine patients (53%) showed leukemic growth, 26 patients (36%) had strongly reduced/absent colony growth, and 12 patients showed both. In a univariate analysis the presence of leukemic growth was associated with strongly reduced survival (at 10 years 4 vs. 34%, p = 0.004), and a high incidence of transformation to AML (76 vs. 32%, p = 0.01). Multivariate analysis identified leukemic growth as a strong and independent predictor of early death (relative risk 2.12, p = 0.03) and transformation to AML (relative risk 2.63, p = 0.04). Quantitative abnormalities had no significant impact on the disease course. CFU-C assays have a significant predictive value in addition to established prognostic factors in MDS. Leukemic growth identifies a subpopulation of MDS patients with poor prognosis.

La comunicació com a factor de canvi en la societat de la informació : Internet en el context audiovisual de Catalunya. Informe final de recerca

Aquest estudi tracta d'entendre els patrons de transformació actuals relacionats amb els mitjans de comunicació a Catalunya dins d'un context de ràpida expansió de les TIC i una creixent complexitat tecnològica i social. Analitza Internet en els mitjans de comunicació "tradicionals", pel que fa a ús, funció i pràctiques de comunicació, tenint en compte l'impacte de les tendències de digitalització actuals i la convergència en el procés de consum, creació, producció, edició i distribució de contingut.

The transcription factor PHR1 plays a key role in the regulation of sulfate shoot-to-root flux upon phosphate starvation in Arabidopsis.

Background: Sulfate and phosphate are both vital macronutrients required for plant growth and development. Despite evidence for interaction between sulfate and phosphate homeostasis, no transcriptional factor has yet been identified in higher plants that affects, at the gene expression and physiological levels, the response to both elements. This work was aimed at examining whether PHR1, a transcription factor previously shown to participate in the regulation of genes involved in phosphate homeostasis, also contributed to the regulation and activity of genes involved in sulfate inter-organ transport. Results: Among the genes implicated in sulfate transport in Arabidopsis thaliana, SULTR1;3 and SULTR3;4 showed up-regulation of transcripts in plants grown under phosphate-deficient conditions. The promoter of SULTR1;3 contains a motif that is potentially recognizable by PHR1. Using the phr1 mutant, we showed that SULTR1;3 up regulation following phosphate deficiency was dependent on PHR1. Furthermore, transcript up regulation was found in phosphate-deficient shoots of the phr1 mutant for SULTR2;1 and SULTR3;4, indicating that PHR1 played both a positive and negative role on the expression of genes encoding sulfate transporters. Importantly, both phr1 and sultr1;3 mutants displayed a reduction in their sulfate shoot-to-root transfer capacity compared to wild-type plants under phosphate-deficient conditions. Conclusions: This study reveals that PHR1 plays an important role in sulfate inter-organ transport, in particular on the regulation of the SULTR1;3 gene and its impact on shoot-to-root sulfate transport in phosphate-deficient plants. PHR1 thus contributes to the homeostasis of both sulfate and phosphate in plants under phosphate deficiency. Such a function is also conserved in Chlamydomonas reinhardtii via the PHR1 ortholog PSR1.

Compliance with guidelines-recommended processes in pneumonia: impact of health status and initial signs

Initial care has been associated with improved survival of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). We aimed to investigate patient comorbidities and health status measured by the Charlson index and clinical signs at diagnosis associated with adherence to recommended processes of care in CAP. We studied 3844 patients hospitalized with CAP. The evaluated recommendations were antibiotic adherence to Spanish guidelines, first antibiotic dose <6 hours and oxygen assessment. Antibiotic adherence was 72.6%, first dose <6 h was 73.4% and oxygen assessment was 90.2%. Antibiotic adherence was negatively associated with a high Charlson score (Odds ratio [OR], 0.91), confusion (OR, 0.66) and tachycardia ≥100 bpm (OR, 0.77). Delayed first dose was significantly lower in those with tachycardia (OR, 0.75). Initial oxygen assessment was negatively associated with fever (OR, 0.61), whereas tachypnea ≥30 (OR, 1.58), tachycardia (OR, 1.39), age >65 (OR, 1.51) and COPD (OR, 1.80) were protective factors. The combination of antibiotic adherence and timing <6 hours was negatively associated with confusion (OR, 0.69) and a high Charlson score (OR, 0.92) adjusting for severity and hospital effect, whereas age was not an independent factor. Deficient health status and confusion, rather than age, are associated with lower compliance with antibiotic therapy recommendations and timing, thus identifying a subpopulation more prone to receiving lower quality care.

Characterization of anti-silencing factor 1 in Leishmania major

Anti-silencing factor 1 (ASF1) is a histone chaperone that contributes to the histone deposition during nucleosome assembly in newly replicated DNA. It is involved in chromatin disassembly, transcription activation and in the cellular response to DNA damage. In Leishmania major the ASF1 gene (LmASF1) is located in chromosome 20 and codes for a protein showing 67% of identity with the Trypanosoma brucei TbASF1a. Compared to orthologous proteins, LmASF1 conserves the main residues relevant for its various biological functions. To study ASF1 in Leishmania we generated a mutant overexpressing LmASF1 in L. major. We observed that the excess of LmASF1 impaired promastigotes growth rates and had no impact on cell cycle progress. Differently from yeast, ASF1 overproduction in Leishmania did not affect expression levels of genes located on telomeres, but led to an upregulation of proteins involved in chromatin remodelling and physiological stress, such as heat shock proteins, oxidoreductase activity and proteolysis. In addition, we observed that LmASF1 mutant is more susceptible to the DNA damaging agent, methyl methane sulphonate, than the control line. Therefore, our study suggests that ASF1 from Leishmania pertains to the chromatin remodelling machinery of the parasite and acts on its response to DNA damage.

The impact of highly active antiretroviral therapy on the survival of vertically HIV-infected children and adolescents in Belo Horizonte, Brazil

The use of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients has reduced the number of acquired immune deficiency syndrome-related deaths worldwide. This study assessed the impact of HAART on the survival and death rates of vertically HIV-infected children and adolescents in Belo Horizonte, Brazil. Data were obtained from a historic cohort of vertically HIV-infected children and adolescents aged zero-19 years old who were admitted from March 1989-December 2004 and were followed until June 2006. Patients who used HAART were included if they were treated for at least 12 weeks. Of 359 patients, 320 patients met the inclusion criteria. The overall mortality rate was 9.7% [31/320; 95% confidence interval (CI): 6.0-13%]. The median survival for the non-HAART and HAART groups was 31.5 and 55.9 months, respectively (log rank = 22.11, p < 0.0001). In the multivariate analysis, the statistically significant variables were HAART and the weight-for-age Z score < -2, with HAART constituting a protective factor [relative risk (RR): 0.13; CI 95%: 0.05-0.33] and malnutrition constituting a risk factor (RR: 3.44; CI 95%: 1.60-7.40) for death. The incidence of death was 5.1/100 person-years in the non-HAART group and 0.8/100 person-years in the HAART group (p < 0.0001).

Official Positions for FRAX(®) clinical regarding glucocorticoids: the impact of the use of glucocorticoids on the estimate by FRAX(®) of the 10 year risk of fracture from Joint Official Positions Development Conference of the International Society for Clinical Densitometry and International Osteoporosis Foundation on FRAX(®).

Given the significant impact the use of glucocorticoids can have on fracture risk independent of bone density, their use has been incorporated as one of the clinical risk factors for calculating the 10-year fracture risk in the World Health Organization's Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX(®)). Like the other clinical risk factors, the use of glucocorticoids is included as a dichotomous variable with use of steroids defined as past or present exposure of 3 months or more of use of a daily dose of 5 mg or more of prednisolone or equivalent. The purpose of this report is to give clinicians guidance on adjustments which should be made to the 10-year risk based on the dose, duration of use and mode of delivery of glucocorticoids preparations. A subcommittee of the International Society for Clinical Densitometry and International Osteoporosis Foundation joint Position Development Conference presented its findings to an expert panel and the following recommendations were selected. 1) There is a dose relationship between glucocorticoid use of greater than 3 months and fracture risk. The average dose exposure captured within FRAX(®) is likely to be a prednisone dose of 2.5-7.5 mg/day or its equivalent. Fracture probability is under-estimated when prednisone dose is greater than 7.5 mg/day and is over-estimated when the prednisone dose is less than 2.5 mg/day. 2) Frequent intermittent use of higher doses of glucocorticoids increases fracture risk. Because of the variability in dose and dosing schedule, quantification of this risk is not possible. 3) High dose inhaled glucocorticoids may be a risk factor for fracture. FRAX(®) may underestimate fracture probability in users of high dose inhaled glucocorticoids. 4) Appropriate glucocorticoid replacement in individuals with adrenal insufficiency has not been found to increase fracture risk. In such patients, use of glucocorticoids should not be included in FRAX(®) calculations.

Permanent pacemaker implantation after transcatheter aortic valve implantation: impact on late clinical outcomes and left ventricular function.

BACKGROUND Very few data exist on the clinical impact of permanent pacemaker implantation (PPI) after transcatheter aortic valve implantation. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of PPI after transcatheter aortic valve implantation on late outcomes in a large cohort of patients. METHODS AND RESULTS A total of 1556 consecutive patients without prior PPI undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation were included. Of them, 239 patients (15.4%) required a PPI within the first 30 days after transcatheter aortic valve implantation. At a mean follow-up of 22±17 months, no association was observed between the need for 30-day PPI and all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 0.98; 95% confidence interval, 0.74-1.30; P=0.871), cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio, 0.81; 95% confidence interval, 0.56-1.17; P=0.270), and all-cause mortality or rehospitalization for heart failure (hazard ratio, 1.00; 95% confidence interval, 0.77-1.30; P=0.980). A lower rate of unexpected (sudden or unknown) death was observed in patients with PPI (hazard ratio, 0.31; 95% confidence interval, 0.11-0.85; P=0.023). Patients with new PPI showed a poorer evolution of left ventricular ejection fraction over time (P=0.017), and new PPI was an independent predictor of left ventricular ejection fraction decrease at the 6- to 12-month follow-up (estimated coefficient, -2.26; 95% confidence interval, -4.07 to -0.44; P=0.013; R(2)=0.121). CONCLUSIONS The need for PPI was a frequent complication of transcatheter aortic valve implantation, but it was not associated with any increase in overall or cardiovascular death or rehospitalization for heart failure after a mean follow-up of ≈2 years. Indeed, 30-day PPI was a protective factor for the occurrence of unexpected (sudden or unknown) death. However, new PPI did have a negative effect on left ventricular function over time.

La violencia contra la mujer en la pareja como factor asociado a una mala salud física y psíquica.

OBJECTIVE: To study the impact of intimate partner violence (IPV) on women's physical and psychological health. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING:Primary care centers in 3 Andalusian provinces. PATIENTS: A total of 425 women, aged 18 to 65 years, were recruited following the same randomisation process in 6 primary care centers. MEASUREMENTS: A self-administered structured questionnaire for this study was used to gather the information. As well as sociodemographic variables, the instrument included questions about IPV, physical health indicators (chronic disease and type, lifetime surgeries, days in bed), psychological health (psychological morbidity, use of tranquilizers, antidepressants, pain killers, alcohol and recreational drugs), self-perceived health and social support. RESULTS: Of 425 women, 31.5% ever experienced any type of partner violence. Women experiencing IPV were more likely to suffer a chronic disease. IPV was significantly associated with a number of adverse health outcomes, including spending more than 7 days in bed in the last three months (ORa=2.96; CI 95%, 1.00-8.76), psychological morbidity (ORa=2.68; CI 95%, 1.60-4.49) and worse self-perceived health (ORa=1.89; CI 95%, 1.04-3.43), after controlling for potential confounding variables. CONCLUSION: This study shows that ever experiencing IPV is associated with a worse psychological and self-perceived health. Physical injuries are not the only "evidence" of the presence of IPV. Primary health care professionals are in a privileged position to help women who are abused by their partners.

Prognostic impact of MGMT promoter methylation and MGMT and CD133 expression in colorectal adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND New biomarkers are needed for the prognosis of advanced colorectal cancer, which remains incurable by conventional treatments. O6-methylguanine DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) methylation and protein expression have been related to colorectal cancer treatment failure and tumor progression. Moreover, the presence in these tumors of cancer stem cells, which are characterized by CD133 expression, has been associated with chemoresistance, radioresistance, metastasis, and local recurrence. The objective of this study was to determine the prognostic value of CD133 and MGMT and their possible interaction in colorectal cancer patients. METHODS MGMT and CD133 expression was analyzed by immunohistochemistry in 123 paraffin-embedded colorectal adenocarcinoma samples, obtaining the percentage staining and intensity. MGMT promoter methylation status was obtained by using bisulfite modification and methylation-specific PCR (MSP). These values were correlated with clinical data, including overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), tumor stage, and differentiation grade. RESULTS Low MGMT expression intensity was significantly correlated with shorter OS and was a prognostic factor independently of treatment and histopathological variables. High percentage of CD133 expression was significantly correlated with shorter DFS but was not an independent factor. Patients with low-intensity MGMT expression and ≥50% CD133 expression had the poorest DFS and OS outcomes. CONCLUSIONS Our results support the hypothesis that MGMT expression may be an OS biomarker as useful as tumor stage or differentiation grade and that CD133 expression may be a predictive biomarker of DFS. Thus, MGMT and CD133 may both be useful for determining the prognosis of colorectal cancer patients and to identify those requiring more aggressive adjuvant therapies. Future studies will be necessary to determine its clinical utility.