Radiative forcing of the direct aerosol effect from AeroCom Phase II simulations

We report on the AeroCom Phase II direct aerosol effect (DAE) experiment where 16 detailed global aerosol models have been used to simulate the changes in the aerosol distribution over the industrial era. All 16 models have estimated the radiative forcing (RF) of the anthropogenic DAE, and have taken into account anthropogenic sulphate, black carbon (BC) and organic aerosols (OA) from fossil fuel, biofuel, and biomass burning emissions. In addition several models have simulated the DAE of anthropogenic nitrate and anthropogenic influenced secondary organic aerosols (SOA). The model simulated all-sky RF of the DAE from total anthropogenic aerosols has a range from −0.58 to −0.02Wm−2, with a mean of −0.27Wm−2 for the 16 models. Several models did not include nitrate or SOA and modifying the estimate by accounting for this with information from the other AeroCom models reduces the range and slightly strengthens the mean. Modifying the model estimates for missing aerosol components and for the time period 1750 to 2010 results in a mean RF for the DAE of −0.35Wm−2. Compared to AeroCom Phase I (Schulz et al., 2006) we find very similar spreads in both total DAE and aerosol component RF. However, the RF of the total DAE is stronger negative and RF from BC from fossil fuel and biofuel emissions are stronger positive in the present study than in the previous AeroCom study.We find a tendency for models having a strong (positive) BC RF to also have strong (negative) sulphate or OA RF. This relationship leads to smaller uncertainty in the total RF of the DAE compared to the RF of the sum of the individual aerosol components. The spread in results for the individual aerosol components is substantial, and can be divided into diversities in burden, mass extinction coefficient (MEC), and normalized RF with respect to AOD. We find that these three factors give similar contributions to the spread in results.

Data-driven treatment selection for seamless phase II/III trials incorporating early-outcome data

Seamless phase II/III clinical trials are conducted in two stages with treatment selection at the first stage. In the first stage, patients are randomized to a control or one of k > 1 experimental treatments. At the end of this stage, interim data are analysed, and a decision is made concerning which experimental treatment should continue to the second stage. If the primary endpoint is observable only after some period of follow-up, at the interim analysis data may be available on some early outcome on a larger number of patients than those for whom the primary endpoint is available. These early endpoint data can thus be used for treatment selection. For two previously proposed approaches, the power has been shown to be greater for one or other method depending on the true treatment effects and correlations. We propose a new approach that builds on the previously proposed approaches and uses data available at the interim analysis to estimate these parameters and then, on the basis of these estimates, chooses the treatment selection method with the highest probability of correctly selecting the most effective treatment. This method is shown to perform well compared with the two previously described methods for a wide range of true parameter values. In most cases, the performance of the new method is either similar to or, in some cases, better than either of the two previously proposed methods.

Stopping rules for phase II studies

This paper, the second in a series of three papers concerned with the statistical aspects of interim analyses in clinical trials, is concerned with stopping rules in phase II clinical trials. Phase II trials are generally small-scale studies, and may include one or more experimental treatments with or without a control. A common feature is that the results primarily determine the course of further clinical evaluation of a treatment rather than providing definitive evidence of treatment efficacy. This means that there is more flexibility available in the design and analysis of such studies than in phase III trials. This has led to a range of different approaches being taken to the statistical design of stopping rules for such trials. This paper briefly describes and compares the different approaches. In most cases the stopping rules can be described and implemented easily without knowledge of the detailed statistical and computational methods used to obtain the rules.

What controls the vertical distribution of aerosol? Relationships between process sensitivity in HadGEM3–UKCA and inter-model variation from AeroCom Phase II

The vertical profile of aerosol is important for its radiative effects, but weakly constrained by observations on the global scale, and highly variable among different models. To investigate the controlling factors in one particular model, we investigate the effects of individual processes in HadGEM3–UKCA and compare the resulting diversity of aerosol vertical profiles with the inter-model diversity from the AeroCom Phase II control experiment. In this way we show that (in this model at least) the vertical profile is controlled by a relatively small number of processes, although these vary among aerosol components and particle sizes. We also show that sufficiently coarse variations in these processes can produce a similar diversity to that among different models in terms of the global-mean profile and, to a lesser extent, the zonal-mean vertical position. However, there are features of certain models' profiles that cannot be reproduced, suggesting the influence of further structural differences between models. In HadGEM3–UKCA, convective transport is found to be very important in controlling the vertical profile of all aerosol components by mass. In-cloud scavenging is very important for all except mineral dust. Growth by condensation is important for sulfate and carbonaceous aerosol (along with aqueous oxidation for the former and ageing by soluble material for the latter). The vertical extent of biomass-burning emissions into the free troposphere is also important for the profile of carbonaceous aerosol. Boundary-layer mixing plays a dominant role for sea salt and mineral dust, which are emitted only from the surface. Dry deposition and below-cloud scavenging are important for the profile of mineral dust only. In this model, the microphysical processes of nucleation, condensation and coagulation dominate the vertical profile of the smallest particles by number (e.g. total CN  >  3 nm), while the profiles of larger particles (e.g. CN  >  100 nm) are controlled by the same processes as the component mass profiles, plus the size distribution of primary emissions. We also show that the processes that affect the AOD-normalised radiative forcing in the model are predominantly those that affect the vertical mass distribution, in particular convective transport, in-cloud scavenging, aqueous oxidation, ageing and the vertical extent of biomass-burning emissions.

A randomized and controlled trial about the use of oral isotretinoin for photoaging

Topical retinoids are used to treat photoaging; oral isotretinoin is gold standard for acne; off label indications, including photoaging, have been reported with insufficient evidence of efficacy. This is a randomized controlled phase II trial with clinical and histological assessment to evaluate efficacy and safety of oral isotretinoin for photoaging. Study population was comprised of 32 menopausal or sterilized women, aged 40-55, divided in 2 groups: A (21) received 20mg isotretinoin, 3 times per week, nightly moisturizer, and daily sunscreen, for three months; B (11) just moisturizer/sunscreen. Main outcome measures were: overall clinical assessment; profilometry, corneometer and elasticity tests in periocular regions and left forearm; before/after biopsies from left forearm in patients of B and in 10 randomly selected of A. Microscopic blinded evaluation of epidermal thickness, dermal elastosis, new collagen, p53 epidermal expression was performed by quantitative digital image analysis. All data were submitted to statistical analysis. Clinical evaluation showed slight improvement; profilometry, corneometer and skin elasticity tests presented significant difference in pre/post values (P = 0.001 to 0.028), but no differences between A/B. Histological findings and p53 expression were comparable between groups before treatment (P > 0.1); microscopic analysis showed no differences between groups for most variables, after treatment. Slight but significant difference between A/B for p53 with major reduction post isotretinoin [0.66±0.31 vs. 0.94±0.34 respectively (P = 0.04) was observed. There were minor side effects and no significant laboratory test alterations. We concluded that no significant clinical, microscopic changes but p53 epidermal expression reduction were observed. The role of ultra-violet induced p53 mutation in skin carcinogenesis reinforces retinoids chemoprevention. Oral isotretinoin seemed safe but not effective to treat photoaging. Caution should be considered for women prone to pregnancy. Further controlled studies are necessary. © 2010 The International Society of Dermatology.

Effect of Complete Revascularization on 10-Year Survival of Patients With Stable Multivessel Coronary Artery Disease MASS II Trial

Background-The importance of complete revascularization remains unclear and contradictory. This current investigation compares the effect of complete revascularization on 10-year survival of patients with stable multivessel coronary artery disease (CAD) who were randomly assigned to percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or coronary artery bypass graft (CABG). Methods and Results-This is a post hoc analysis of the Second Medicine, Angioplasty, or Surgery Study (MASS II), which is a randomized trial comparing treatments in patients with stable multivessel CAD, and preserved systolic ventricular function. We analyzed patients who underwent surgery (CABG) or stent angioplasty (PCI). The survival free of overall mortality of patients who underwent complete (CR) or incomplete revascularization (IR) was compared. Of the 408 patients randomly assigned to mechanical revascularization, 390 patients (95.6%) underwent the assigned treatment; complete revascularization was achieved in 224 patients (57.4%), 63.8% of those in the CABG group and 36.2% in the PCI group (P = 0.001). The IR group had more prior myocardial infarction than the CR group (56.2% X 39.2%, P = 0.01). During a 10-year follow-up, the survival free of cardiovascular mortality was significantly different among patients in the 2 groups (CR, 90.6% versus IR, 84.4%; P = 0.04). This was mainly driven by an increased cardiovascular specific mortality in individuals with incomplete revascularization submitted to PCI (P = 0.05). Conclusions-Our study suggests that in 10-year follow-up, CR compared with IR was associated with reduced cardiovascular mortality, especially due to a higher increase in cardiovascular-specific mortality in individuals submitted to PCI.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis for Surgical, Angioplasty, or Medical Therapeutics for Coronary Artery Disease 5-Year Follow-Up of Medicine, Angioplasty, or Surgery Study (MASS) II Trial

Background-The Second Medicine, Angioplasty, or Surgery Study (MASS II) included patients with multivessel coronary artery disease and normal systolic ventricular function. Patients underwent coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG, n = 203), percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI, n = 205), or medical treatment alone (MT, n = 203). This investigation compares the economic outcome at 5-year follow-up of the 3 therapeutic strategies. Methods and Results-We analyzed cumulative costs during a 5-year follow-up period. To analyze the cost-effectiveness, adjustment was made on the cumulative costs for average event-free time and angina-free proportion. Respectively, for event-free survival and event plus angina-free survival, MT presented 3.79 quality-adjusted life-years and 2.07 quality-adjusted life-years; PCI presented 3.59 and 2.77 quality-adjusted life-years; and CABG demonstrated 4.4 and 2.81 quality-adjusted life-years. The event-free costs were $9071.00 for MT; $19 967.00 for PCI; and $18 263.00 for CABG. The paired comparison of the event-free costs showed that there was a significant difference favoring MT versus PCI (P<0.01) and versus CABG (P<0.01) and CABG versus PCI (P<0.01). The event-free plus angina-free costs were $16 553.00, $25 831.00, and $24 614.00, respectively. The paired comparison of the event-free plus angina-free costs showed that there was a significant difference favoring MT versus PCI (P=0.04), and versus CABG (P<0.001); there was no difference between CABG and PCI (P>0.05). Conclusions-In the long-term economic analysis, for the prevention of a composite primary end point, MT was more cost effective than CABG, and CABG was more cost-effective than PCI.

Study of the performances of the H->ZZ*->4l analysis with the CMS phase-II upgrade

The performances of the H → ZZ* → 4l analysis are studied in the context of the High Luminosity upgrade of the LHC collider, with the CMS detector. The high luminosity (up to L = 5 × 10^34 cm−2s−1) of the accelerator poses very challenging experimental con- ditions. In particular, the number of overlapping events per bunch crossing will increase to 140. To cope with this difficult environment, the CMS detector will be upgraded in two stages: Phase-I and Phase-II. The tools used in the analysis are the CMS Full Simulation and the fast parametrized Delphes simulation. A validation of Delphes with respect to the Full Simulation is performed, using reference Phase-I detector samples. Delphes is then used to simulate the Phase-II detector response. The Phase-II configuration is compared with the Phase-I detector and the same Phase-I detector affected by aging processes, both modeled with the Full Simulation framework. Conclusions on these three scenarios are derived: the degradation in performances observed with the “aged” scenario shows that a major upgrade of the detector is mandatory. The specific upgrade configuration studied allows to keep the same performances as in Phase-I and, in the case of the four-muons channel, even to exceed them.

Gefitinib in Combination with Irradiation with or Without Cisplatin in Patients with Inoperable Stage III Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: A Phase I Trial

To establish the feasibility and tolerability of gefitinib (ZD1839, Iressa) with radiation (RT) or concurrent chemoradiation (CRT) with cisplatin (CDDP) in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

Safety and Efficacy of Ranibizumab in Diabetic Macular Edema (RESOLVE Study): A 12-month, randomized, controlled, double-masked, multicenter phase II study

The expression of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) is elevated in diabetic macular edema (DME). Ranibizumab binds to and inhibits multiple VEGF variants. We investigated the safety and efficacy of ranibizumab in DME involving the foveal center.

Concomitant Cisplatin and Hyperfractionated Radiotherapy in Locally Advanced Head and Neck Cancer: 10-Year Follow-up of a Randomized Phase III Trial (SAKK 10/94)

To compare the long-term outcome of treatment with concomitant cisplatin and hyperfractionated radiotherapy versus treatment with hyperfractionated radiotherapy alone in patients with locally advanced head and neck cancer.

Phase II study of oral capsular 4-hydroxyphenylretinamide (4-HPR/fenretinide) in pediatric patients with refractory or recurrent neuroblastoma: a report from the Children's Oncology Group

To determine the response rate to oral capsular fenretinide in children with recurrent or biopsy proven refractory high-risk neuroblastoma.

Interpreting Breast International Group (BIG) 1-98: a randomized, double-blind, phase III trial comparing letrozole and tamoxifen as adjuvant endocrine therapy for postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive, early breast cancer

The Breast International Group (BIG) 1-98 study is a four-arm trial comparing 5 years of monotherapy with tamoxifen or with letrozole or with sequences of 2 years of one followed by 3 years of the other for postmenopausal women with endocrine-responsive early invasive breast cancer. From 1998 to 2003, BIG -98 enrolled 8,010 women. The enhanced design f the trial enabled two complementary analyses of efficacy and safety. Collection of tumor specimens further enabled treatment comparisons based on tumor biology. Reports of BIG 1-98 should be interpreted in relation to each individual patient as she weighs the costs and benefits of available treatments.

Predictors of severe late radiotherapy-related toxicity after hyperfractionated radiotherapy with or without concomitant cisplatin in locally advanced head and neck cancer. Secondary retrospective analysis of a randomized phase III trial (SAKK 10/94)

This secondary analysis was performed to identify predictive factors for severe late radiotherapy (RT)-related toxicity after treatment with hyperfractionated RT +/- concomitant cisplatin in locally advanced head and neck cancer.

Addition of bevacizumab to chemotherapy in acute myeloid leukemia at older age: a randomized phase 2 trial of the Dutch-Belgian Cooperative Trial Group for Hemato-Oncology (HOVON) and the Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research (SAKK)

An urgent need for new treatment modalities is emerging in elderly patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML). We hypothesized that targeting VEGF might furnish an effective treatment modality in this population. Elderly patients with AML were randomly assigned in this phase 2 study (n = 171) to receive standard chemotherapy (3 + 7) with or without bevacizumab at a dose of 10 mg/kg intravenously at days 1 and 15. In the second cycle, patients received cytarabine 1000 mg/m(2) twice daily on days 1-6 with or without bevacizumab. The complete remission rates in the 2 arms were not different (65%). Event-free survival at 12 months was 33% for the standard arm versus 30% for the bevacizumab arm; at 24 months, it was 22% and 16%, respectively (P = .42). The frequencies of severe adverse events (SAEs) were higher in the bevacizumab arm (n = 63) compared with the control arm (n = 28; P = .043), but the percentages of death or life-threatening SAEs were lower in the bevacizumab arm (60% vs 75% of SAEs). The results of the present study show that the addition of bevacizumab to standard chemotherapy does not improve the therapeutic outcome of older AML patients. This trial is registered as number NTR904 in The Nederlands Trial Register (www.trialregister.nl).