Look before you leap : a confidence-based method for selecting species criticality while avoiding negative populations in τ-leaping

The stochastic simulation algorithm was introduced by Gillespie and in a different form by Kurtz. There have been many attempts at accelerating the algorithm without deviating from the behavior of the simulated system. The crux of the explicit τ-leaping procedure is the use of Poisson random variables to approximate the number of occurrences of each type of reaction event during a carefully selected time period, τ. This method is acceptable providing the leap condition, that no propensity function changes “significantly” during any time-step, is met. Using this method there is a possibility that species numbers can, artificially, become negative. Several recent papers have demonstrated methods that avoid this situation. One such method classifies, as critical, those reactions in danger of sending species populations negative. At most, one of these critical reactions is allowed to occur in the next time-step. We argue that the criticality of a reactant species and its dependent reaction channels should be related to the probability of the species number becoming negative. This way only reactions that, if fired, produce a high probability of driving a reactant population negative are labeled critical. The number of firings of more reaction channels can be approximated using Poisson random variables thus speeding up the simulation while maintaining the accuracy. In implementing this revised method of criticality selection we make use of the probability distribution from which the random variable describing the change in species number is drawn. We give several numerical examples to demonstrate the effectiveness of our new method.

Acoustic component detection for automatic species recognition in environmental monitoring

Automatic species recognition plays an important role in assisting ecologists to monitor the environment. One critical issue in this research area is that software developers need prior knowledge of specific targets people are interested in to build templates for these targets. This paper proposes a novel approach for automatic species recognition based on generic knowledge about acoustic events to detect species. Acoustic component detection is the most critical and fundamental part of this proposed approach. This paper gives clear definitions of acoustic components and presents three clustering algorithms for detecting four acoustic components in sound recordings; whistles, clicks, slurs, and blocks. The experiment result demonstrates that these acoustic component recognisers have achieved high precision and recall rate.

Impacts of experimental warming and fire on phenology of subalpine open-heath species

The present study examined experimentally the phenological responses of a range of plant species to rises in temperature. We used the climate-change field protocol of the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX), which measures plant responses to warming of 1 to 2°C inside small open-topped chambers. The field study was established on the Bogong High Plains, Australia, in subalpine open heathlands; the most common treeless plant community on the Bogong High Plains. The study included areas burnt by fire in 2003, and therefore considers the interactive effects of warming and fire, which have rarely been studied in high mountain environments. From November 2003 to March 2006, various phenological phases were monitored inside and outside chambers during the snow-free periods. Warming resulted in earlier occurrence of key phenological events in 7 of the 14 species studied. Burning altered phenology in 9 of 10 species studied, with both earlier and later phenological changes depending on the species. There were no common phenological responses to warming or burning among species of the same family, growth form or flowering type (i.e. early or late-flowering species), when all phenological events were examined. The proportion of plants that formed flower buds was influenced by fire in half of the species studied. The findings support previous findings of ITEX and other warming experiments; that is, species respond individualistically to experimental warming. The inter-year variation in phenological response, the idiosyncratic nature of the responses to experimental warming among species, and an inherent resilience to fire, may result in community resilience to short-term climate change. In the first 3 years of experimental warming, phenological responses do not appear to be driving community-level change. Our findings emphasise the value of examining multiple species in climate-change studies.

Interaction of myxomatosis and Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease in wild rabbit

Increasing resistance of rabbits to myxomatosis in Australia has led to the exploration of Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease, also called Rabbit Calicivirus Disease (RCD) as a possible control agent. While the initial spread of RCD in Australia resulted in widespread rabbit mortality in affected areas, the possible population dynamic effects of RCD and myxomatosis operating within the same system have not been properly explored. Here we present early mathematical modelling examining the interaction between the two diseases. In this study we use a deterministic compartment model, based on the classical SIR model in infectious disease modelling. We consider, here, only a single strain of myxomatosis and RCD and neglect latent periods. We also include logistic population growth, with the inclusion of seasonal birth rates. We assume there is no cross-immunity due to either disease. The mathematical model allows for the possibility of both diseases to be simultaneously present in an individual, although results are also presented for the case where co infection is not possible, since co-infection is thought to be rare and questions exist as to whether it can occur. The simulation results of this investigation show that it is a crucial issue and should be part of future field studies. A single simultaneous outbreak of RCD and myxomatosis was simulated, while ignoring natural births and deaths, appropriate for a short timescale of 20 days. Simultaneous outbreaks may be more common in Queensland. For the case where co-infection is not possible we find that the simultaneous presence of myxomatosis in the population suppresses the prevalence of RCD, compared to an outbreak of RCD with no outbreak of myxomatosis, and thus leads to a less effective control of the population. The reason for this is that infection with myxomatosis removes potentially susceptible rabbits from the possibility of infection with RCD (like a vaccination effect). We found that the reduction in the maximum prevalence of RCD was approximately 30% for an initial prevalence of 20% of myxomatosis, for the case where there was no simultaneous outbreak of myxomatosis, but the peak prevalence was only 15% when there was a simultaneous outbreak of myxomatosis. However, this maximum reduction will depend on other parameter values chosen. When co-infection is allowed then this suppression effect does occur but to a lesser degree. This is because the rabbits infected with both diseases reduces the prevalence of myxomatosis. We also simulated multiple outbreaks over a longer timescale of 10 years, including natural population growth rates, with seasonal birth rates and density dependent(logistic) death rates. This shows how both diseases interact with each other and with population growth. Here we obtain sustained outbreaks occurring approximately every two years for the case of a simultaneous outbreak of both diseases but without simultaneous co-infection, with the prevalence varying from 0.1 to 0.5. Without myxomatosis present then the simulation predicts RCD dies out quickly without further introduction from elsewhere. With the possibility of simultaneous co-infection of rabbits, sustained outbreaks are possible but then the outbreaks are less severe and more frequent (approximately yearly). While further model development is needed, our work to date suggests that: 1) the diseases are likely to interact via their impacts on rabbit abundance levels, and 2) introduction of RCD can suppress myxomatosis prevalence. We recommend that further modelling in conjunction with field studies be carried out to further investigate how these two diseases interact in the population.

Host location by the fruit fly parasitoid Diachasmimorpha krausii : role of fruit fly species, life stage and host plant

1 Diachasmimorpha krausii is a braconid parasitoid of larval tephritid fruit flies, which feed cryptically within host fruit. At the ovipositor probing stage, the wasp cannot discriminate between hosts that are physiologically suitable or unsuitable for offspring development and must use other cues to locate suitable hosts. 2 To identify the cues used by the parasitoid to find suitable hosts, we offered, to free flying wasps, different combinations of three fruit fly species (Bactrocera tryoni, Bactrocera cacuminata, Bactrocera cucumis), different life stages of those flies (adults and larvae) and different host plants (Solanum lycopersicon, Solanum mauritianum, Cucurbita pepo). In the laboratory, the wasp will readily oviposit into larvae of all three flies but successfully develops only in B. tryoni. Bactrocera tryoni commonly infests S. lycopersicon (tomato), rarely S. mauritianum (wild tobacco) but never C. pepo (zucchini). The latter two plant species are common hosts for B. cacuminata and B. cucumis, respectively. 3 The parasitoid showed little or no response to uninfested plants of any of the test species. The presence of adult B. tryoni, however, increased parasitoid residency time on uninfested tomato. 4 When the three fruit types were all infested with larvae, parasitoid response was strongest to tomato, regardless of whether the larvae were physiologically suitable or unsuitable for offspring development. By contrast, zucchini was rarely visited by the wasp, even when infested with B. tryoni larvae. 5 Wild tobacco was infrequently visited when infested with B. cacuminata larvae but was more frequently visited, with greater parasitoid residency time and probing, when adult flies (either B. cacuminata or B. tryoni) were also present. 6 We conclude that herbivore-induced, nonspecific host fruit wound volatiles were the major cue used by foraging D. krausii. Although positive orientation to infested host plants is well known from previous studies on opiine braconids, the failure of the wasp to orientate to some plants even when infested with physiologically suitable larvae, and the secondary role played by adult fruit flies in wasp host searching, are newly-identified mechanisms that may aid parasitoid host location in environments where both physiologically suitable and unsuitable hosts occur.

Biodiversity–productivity relationships in small-scale mixed-species plantations using native species in Leyte province, Philippines

In this study, we investigate the relationship between tree species diversity and production in 18 mixed-species plantations established under the Rainforestation Farming system in Leyte province, the Philippines. The aim was to quantify productivity in the mixed-species plantations in comparison to the monocultures, and identify key drivers of productivity including environmental conditions, stand structural characteristics and surrogate measures of biodiversity, i.e. species richness, Shannon’s diversity index and functional groups. We found that monocultures had a much higher productivity than mixtures of the same and other species. In the mixtures, biodiversity and productivity did not have a simple relationship. Instead the proportion of exotic and native species, and the proportion of fast-growing species had a marginally significant positive effect on stand productivity, but no significant relationship was found with species richness or Shannon’s diversity. Instead stand structural characteristics such as density and age were the strongest drivers of increased productivity. Production levels within the mixed-species plantations varied significantly between sites. Overall, we found that the productivity of mixed species plantations was driven more by the characteristics of species present and stand structural characteristics then by simply the number and abundance of species, which suggests management practices are key for balancing multiple objectives to meet sustainable development needs.