Uses of Agent-Based Modeling for Health Communication: the TELL ME Case Study

Government communication is an important management tool during a public health crisis, but understanding its impact is difficult. Strategies may be adjusted in reaction to developments on the ground and it is challenging to evaluate the impact of communication separately from other crisis management activities. Agent-based modeling is a well-established research tool in social science to respond to similar challenges. However, there have been few such models in public health. We use the example of the TELL ME agent-based model to consider ways in which a non-predictive policy model can assist policy makers. This model concerns individuals' protective behaviors in response to an epidemic, and the communication that influences such behavior. Drawing on findings from stakeholder workshops and the results of the model itself, we suggest such a model can be useful: (i) as a teaching tool, (ii) to test theory, and (iii) to inform data collection. We also plot a path for development of similar models that could assist with communication planning for epidemics.

The £ for lb challenge – a lose – win – win scenario. Results from a novel workplace-based, peer-led weight management programme

Title: The £ for lb. Challenge – A lose - win – win scenario. Results from a novel workplace-based, peer-led weight management programme in 2016.

Names: Damien Bennett, Declan Bradley, Angela McComb, Amy Kiernan, Tracey Owen

Background: Tackling obesity is a public health priority. The £ for lb. Challenge is the first country wide, workplace-based peer-led weight management programme in the UK or Ireland with participants from a range of private and public businesses in Northern Ireland (NI).
Intervention: The intervention was workplace-based, led by workplace Champions and based on the NHS Choices 12 week weight loss guide. It operated from January to April 2016. Overweight and obese adult workers were eligible. Training of Peer Champions (staff volunteers) involved two half day workshops delivered by dieticians and physical activity professionals.
Outcome measurement: Weight was measured at enrolment and 12 weekly intervals. Changes in weight, % weight, BMI and % BMI were determined for the whole cohort and sex and deprivation subgroups.
Results: There were 1513 eligible participants from 35 companies. Engagement rate was 98%. 75% of participants completed the programme. Mean weight loss was 2.4 kg or 2.7%. Almost a quarter (24%) lost at least 5% initial bodyweight. Male participants were over twice as likely to complete the programme and three times more likely to lose 5% body weight or more. Over £17,000 was raised for NI charities.
Discussion: The £ for lb. Challenge is a successful health improvement programme with important weight loss for many participants, particularly male workers. With high levels of user engagement and ownership and successful multidisciplinary collaboration between public health, voluntary bodies, private and public companies it is a novel workplace based model with potential to expand.

Nanoindentation Relaxation Study and Micromechanics of Cement-Based Materials

Ce travail évalue le comportement mécanique des matériaux cimentaires à différentes échelles de distance. Premièrement, les propriétés mécaniques du béton produit avec un bioplastifiant à base de microorganismes efficaces (EM) sont etudiées par nanoindentation statistique, et comparées aux propriétés mécaniques du béton produit avec un superplastifiant ordinaire (SP). Il est trouvé que l’ajout de bioplastifiant à base de produit EM améliore la résistance des C–S–H en augmentant la cohésion et la friction des nanograins solides. L’analyse statistique des résultats d’indentation suggère que le bioplastifiant à base de produit EM inhibe la précipitation des C–S–H avec une plus grande fraction volumique solide. Deuxièmement, un modèle multi-échelles à base micromécanique est dérivé pour le comportement poroélastique de la pâte de ciment au jeune age. L’approche proposée permet d’obtenir les propriétés poroélastiques requises pour la modélisation du comportoment mécanique partiellement saturé des pâtes de ciment viellissantes. Il est montré que ce modèle prédit le seuil de percolation et le module de Young non drainé de façon conforme aux données expérimentales. Un metamodèle stochastique est construit sur la base du chaos polynomial pour propager l’incertitude des paramètres du modèle à travers plusieurs échelles de distance. Une analyse de sensibilité est conduite par post-traitement du metamodèle pour des pâtes de ciment avec ratios d’eau sur ciment entre 0.35 et 0.70. Il est trouvé que l’incertitude sous-jacente des propriétés poroélastiques équivalentes est principalement due à l’énergie d’activation des aluminates de calcium au jeune age et, plus tard, au module élastique des silicates de calcium hydratés de basse densité.

Constructing stability landscapes to identify alternative states in coupled social-ecological agent-based models

The resilience of a social-ecological system is measured by its ability to retain core functionality when subjected to perturbation. Resilience is contextually dependent on the state of system components, the complex interactions among these components, and the timing, location, and magnitude of perturbations. The stability landscape concept provides a useful framework for considering resilience within the specified context of a particular social-ecological system but has proven difficult to operationalize. This difficulty stems largely from the complex, multidimensional nature of the systems of interest and uncertainty in system response. Agent-based models are an effective methodology for understanding how cross-scale processes within and across social and ecological domains contribute to overall system resilience. We present the results of a stylized model of agricultural land use in a small watershed that is typical of the Midwestern United States. The spatially explicit model couples land use, biophysical models, and economic drivers with an agent-based model to explore the effects of perturbations and policy adaptations on system outcomes. By applying the coupled modeling approach within the resilience and stability landscape frameworks, we (1) estimate the sensitivity of the system to context-specific perturbations, (2) determine potential outcomes of those perturbations, (3) identify possible alternative states within state space, (4) evaluate the resilience of system states, and (5) characterize changes in system-scale resilience brought on by changes in individual land use decisions.

Shapes and Dynamics of Blood Cells in Poiseuille and Shear Flows

The dynamics, shape, deformation, and orientation of red blood cells in microcirculation affect the rheology, flow resistance and transport properties of whole blood. This leads to important correlations of cellular and continuum scales. Furthermore, the dynamics of RBCs subject to different flow conditions and vessel geometries is relevant for both fundamental research and biomedical applications (e.g drug delivery). In this thesis, the behaviour of RBCs is investigated for different flow conditions via computer simulations. We use a combination of two mesoscopic particle-based simulation techniques, dissipative particle dynamics and smoothed dissipative particle dynamics. We focus on the microcapillary scale of several μm. At this scale, blood cannot be considered at the continuum but has to be studied at the cellular level. The connection between cellular motion and overall blood rheology will be investigated. Red blood cells are modelled as viscoelastic objects interacting hydrodynamically with a viscous fluid environment. The properties of the membrane, such as resistance against bending or shearing, are set to correspond to experimental values. Furthermore, thermal fluctuations are considered via random forces. Analyses corresponding to light scattering measurements are performed in order to compare to experiments and suggest for which situations this method is suitable. Static light scattering by red blood cells characterises their shape and allows comparison to objects such as spheres or cylinders, whose scattering signals have analytical solutions, in contrast to those of red blood cells. Dynamic light scattering by red blood cells is studied concerning its suitability to detect and analyse motion, deformation and membrane fluctuations. Dynamic light scattering analysis is performed for both diffusing and flowing cells. We find that scattering signals depend on various cell properties, thus allowing to distinguish different cells. The scattering of diffusing cells allows to draw conclusions on their bending rigidity via the effective diffusion coefficient. The scattering of flowing cells allows to draw conclusions on the shear rate via the scattering amplitude correlation. In flow, a RBC shows different shapes and dynamic states, depending on conditions such as confinement, physiological/pathological state and cell age. Here, two essential flow conditions are studied: simple shear flow and tube flow. Simple shear flow as a basic flow condition is part of any more complex flow. The velocity profile is linear and shear stress is homogeneous. In simple shear flow, we find a sequence of different cell shapes by increasing the shear rate. With increasing shear rate, we find rolling cells with cup shapes, trilobe shapes and quadrulobe shapes. This agrees with recent experiments. Furthermore, the impact of the initial orientation on the dynamics is studied. To study crowding and collective effects, systems with higher haematocrit are set up. Tube flow is an idealised model for the flow through cylindric microvessels. Without cell, a parabolic flow profile prevails. A single red blood cell is placed into the tube and subject to a Poiseuille profile. In tube flow, we find different cell shapes and dynamics depending on confinement, shear rate and cell properties. For strong confinements and high shear rates, we find parachute-like shapes. Although not perfectly symmetric, they are adjusted to the flow profile and maintain a stationary shape and orientation. For weak confinements and low shear rates, we find tumbling slippers that rotate and moderately change their shape. For weak confinements and high shear rates, we find tank-treading slippers that oscillate in a limited range of inclination angles and strongly change their shape. For the lowest shear rates, we find cells performing a snaking motion. Due to cell properties and resultant deformations, all shapes differ from hitherto descriptions, such as steady tank-treading or symmetric parachutes. We introduce phase diagrams to identify flow regimes for the different shapes and dynamics. Changing cell properties, the regime borders in the phase diagrams change. In both flow types, both the viscosity contrast and the choice of stress-free shape are important. For in vitro experiments, the solvent viscosity has often been higher than the cytosol viscosity, leading to a different pattern of dynamics, such as steady tank-treading. The stress-free state of a RBC, which is the state at zero shear stress, is still controversial, and computer simulations enable direct comparisons of possible candidates in equivalent flow conditions.

Mode locking in a periodically forced "ghostbursting" neuron model

We study a minimal integrate-and-fire based model of a "ghostbursting" neuron under periodic stimulation. These neurons are involved in sensory processing in weakly electric fish. There exist regions in parameter space in which the model neuron is mode-locked to the stimulation. We analyse this locked behavior and examine the bifurcations that define the boundaries of these regions. Due to the discontinuous nature of the flow, some of these bifurcations are nonsmooth. This exact analysis is in excellent agreement with numerical simulations, and can be used to understand the response of such a model neuron to biologically realistic input.

A coupled movement and bioenergetics model to explore the spawning migration of anchovy in the Bay of Biscay

Adult anchovies in the Bay of Biscay perform north to south migration from late winter to early summer for spawning. However, what triggers and drives the geographic shift of the population remains unclear and poorly understood. An individual-based fish model has been implemented to explore the potential mechanisms that control anchovy's movement routes toward its spawning habitats. To achieve this goal, two fish movement behaviors – gradient detection through restricted area search and kinesis – simulated fish response to its dynamic environment. A bioenergetics model was used to represent individual growth and reproduction along the fish trajectory. The environmental forcing (food, temperature) of the model was provided by a coupled physical–biogeochemical model. We followed a hypothesis-testing strategy to actualize a series of simulations using different cues and computational assumptions. The gradient detection behavior was found as the most suitable mechanism to recreate the observed shift of anchovy distribution under the combined effect of sea-surface temperature and zooplankton. In addition, our results suggested that southward movement occurred more actively from early April to middle May following favorably the spatio-temporal evolution of zooplankton and temperature. In terms of fish bioenergetics, individuals who ended up in the southern part of the bay presented better condition based on energy content, proposing the resulting energy gain as an ecological explanation for this migration. The kinesis approach resulted in a moderate performance, producing distribution pattern with the highest spread. Finally, model performance was not significantly affected by changes on the starting date, initial fish distribution and number of particles used in the simulations, whereas it was drastically influenced by the adopted cues.

Delays in activity based neural networks

In this paper we study the effect of two distinct discrete delays on the dynamics of a Wilson-Cowan neural network. This activity based model describes the dynamics of synaptically interacting excitatory and inhibitory neuronal populations. We discuss the interpretation of the delays in the language of neurobiology and show how they can contribute to the generation of network rhythms. First we focus on the use of linear stability theory to show how to destabilise a fixed point, leading to the onset of oscillatory behaviour. Next we show for the choice of a Heaviside nonlinearity for the firing rate that such emergent oscillations can be either synchronous or anti-synchronous depending on whether inhibition or excitation dominates the network architecture. To probe the behaviour of smooth (sigmoidal) nonlinear firing rates we use a mixture of numerical bifurcation analysis and direct simulations, and uncover parameter windows that support chaotic behaviour. Finally we comment on the role of delays in the generation of bursting oscillations, and discuss natural extensions of the work in this paper.

Development of Physics-based Models and Design Optimization of Power Electronic Conversion Systems

The main objective for physics based modeling of the power converter components is to design the whole converter with respect to physical and operational constraints. Therefore, all the elements and components of the energy conversion system are modeled numerically and combined together to achieve the whole system behavioral model. Previously proposed high frequency (HF) models of power converters are based on circuit models that are only related to the parasitic inner parameters of the power devices and the connections between the components. This dissertation aims to obtain appropriate physics-based models for power conversion systems, which not only can represent the steady state behavior of the components, but also can predict their high frequency characteristics. The developed physics-based model would represent the physical device with a high level of accuracy in predicting its operating condition. The proposed physics-based model enables us to accurately develop components such as; effective EMI filters, switching algorithms and circuit topologies [7]. One of the applications of the developed modeling technique is design of new sets of topologies for high-frequency, high efficiency converters for variable speed drives. The main advantage of the modeling method, presented in this dissertation, is the practical design of an inverter for high power applications with the ability to overcome the blocking voltage limitations of available power semiconductor devices. Another advantage is selection of the best matching topology with inherent reduction of switching losses which can be utilized to improve the overall efficiency. The physics-based modeling approach, in this dissertation, makes it possible to design any power electronic conversion system to meet electromagnetic standards and design constraints. This includes physical characteristics such as; decreasing the size and weight of the package, optimized interactions with the neighboring components and higher power density. In addition, the electromagnetic behaviors and signatures can be evaluated including the study of conducted and radiated EMI interactions in addition to the design of attenuation measures and enclosures.

Diffusing alpha particles radiation treatment optimization in clinical settings

Alpha-particle emitters, notably used in 224Ra-DaRT, have emerged as effective in overcoming radiation resistance and providing targeted cancer therapy. These emitters cause DNA double-strand breaks, visualizable in human lymphocytes. The 224Ra DaRT technique, using a decay chain from seeds, extends alpha particle range, achieving complete tumor destruction while sparing healthy tissue. This thesis examines a biokinetic model, validated with patient data, and a feasibility study on skin squamous cell carcinomas are discussed. The study reports 75% tumor complete response rate and 48% patients experiencing acute grade 2 toxicity, resolving within a month. An observed abscopal effect (AE), where tumor regression occurs at non-irradiated sites, is examined, highlighting DaRT's potential in triggering anti-tumor immune responses. This effect, coupled with DaRT's high-linear energy transfer (LET), suggests its superiority over low-LET radiation in certain clinical scenarios. Improvements to DaRT, including the use of an external radio-opaque template for treatment planning, are explored. This advancement aids in determining source numbers for optimal tumor coverage, enhancing DaRT’s safety. The thesis outlines a typical DaRT procedure, from tumor measurements to source assessment and administration, emphasizing the importance of precise seed positioning. Furthermore, the thesis discusses DaRT's potential in treating prostate cancer, a prevalent global health issue, by offering an alternative to traditional salvage therapies. DaRT seeds, delivering alpha particle-based interstitial radiation, require precision in seed insertion due to their limited tissue range. In conclusion, the thesis advocates for DaRT's role in treating solid tumors, emphasizing its improved radiobiological potency and potential benefits over beta and gamma source-based therapies. Ongoing studies are assessing DaRT's feasibility in treating various solid tumors, including pancreatic, breast, prostate, and vulvar malignancies, suggesting a promising future in cancer treatment.

Kinetic energy sum spectra in nonmesonic weak decay of hypernuclei

We evaluate the coincidence spectra in the nonmesonic weak decay (NMWD) Lambda N -> nN of Lambda hypernuclei (4)(Lambda)He, (5)(Lambda)He, (12)(Lambda)C, (16)(Lambda)O, and (28)(Lambda)Si, as a function of the sum of kinetic energies E(nN)=E(n)+E(N) for N=n,p. The strangeness-changing transition potential is described by the one-meson-exchange model, with commonly used parametrization. Two versions of the independent-particle shell model (IPSM) are employed to account for the nuclear structure of the final residual nuclei. They are as follows: (a) IPSM-a, where no correlation, except for the Pauli principle, is taken into account and (b) IPSM-b, where the highly excited hole states are considered to be quasistationary and are described by Breit-Wigner distributions, whose widths are estimated from the experimental data. All np and nn spectra exhibit a series of peaks in the energy interval 110 MeV < E(nN)< 170 MeV, one for each occupied shell-model state. Within the IPSM-a, and because of the recoil effect, each peak covers an energy interval proportional to A(-1) , going from congruent to 4 MeV for (28)(Lambda)Si to congruent to 40 MeV for (4)(Lambda)He. Such a description could be pretty fair for the light (4)(Lambda)He and (5)(Lambda)He hypernuclei. For the remaining, heavier, hypernuclei it is very important, however, to consider as well the spreading in strength of the deep-hole states and bring into play the IPSM-b approach. Notwithstanding the nuclear model that is employed the results depend only very weakly on the details of the dynamics involved in the decay process proper. We propose that the IPSM is the appropriate lowest-order approximation for the theoretical calculations of the of kinetic energy sum spectra in the NMWD. It is in comparison to this picture that one should appraise the effects of the final-state interactions and of the two-nucleon-induced decay mode.

Collision probabilities in the rarefaction fan of asymmetric exclusion processes

We consider the one-dimensional asymmetric simple exclusion process (ASEP) in which particles jump to the right at rate p is an element of (1/2, 1.] and to the left at rate 1 - p, interacting by exclusion. In the initial state there is a finite region such that to the left of this region all sites are occupied and to the right of it all sites are empty. Under this initial state, the hydrodynamical limit of the process converges to the rarefaction fan of the associated Burgers equation. In particular suppose that the initial state has first-class particles to the left of the origin, second-class particles at sites 0 and I, and holes to the right of site I. We show that the probability that the two second-class particles eventually collide is (1 + p)/(3p), where a collision occurs when one of the particles attempts to jump over the other. This also corresponds to the probability that two ASEP processes. started from appropriate initial states and coupled using the so-called ""basic coupling,"" eventually reach the same state. We give various other results about the behaviour of second-class particles in the ASEP. In the totally asymmetric case (p = 1) we explain a further representation in terms of a multi-type particle system, and also use the collision result to derive the probability of coexistence of both clusters in a two-type version of the corner growth model.

Small rivers in the southwestern Amazon and their role in CO(2) outgassing

A recent estimate of CO(2) outgassing from Amazonian wetlands suggests that an order of magnitude more CO(2) leaves rivers through gas exchange with the atmosphere than is exported to the ocean as organic plus inorganic carbon. However, the contribution of smaller rivers is still poorly understood, mainly because of limitations in mapping their spatial extent. Considering that the largest extension of the Amazon River network is composed of small rivers, the authors` objective was to elucidate their role in air-water CO(2) exchange by developing a geographic information system ( GIS)- based model to calculate the surface area covered by rivers with channels less than 100 m wide, combined with estimated CO(2) outgassing rates at the Ji-Parana River basin, in the western Amazon. Estimated CO(2) outgassing was the main carbon export pathway for this river basin, totaling 289 Gg C yr(-1), about 2.4 times the amount of carbon exported as dissolved inorganic carbon ( 121 Gg C yr(-1)) and 1.6 times the dissolved organic carbon export ( 185 Gg C yr(-1)). The relationships established here between drainage area and channel width provide a new model for determining small river surface area, allowing regional extrapolations of air - water gas exchange. Applying this model to the entire Amazon River network of channels less than 100 m wide ( third to fifth order), the authors calculate that the surface area of small rivers is 0.3 +/- 0.05 million km(2), and it is potentially evading to the atmosphere 170 +/- 42 Tg C yr(-1) as CO(2). Therefore, these ecosystems play an important role in the regional carbon balance.

A wavelet visible difference predictor

In this paper, we describe a model of the human visual system (HVS) based on the wavelet transform. This model is largely based on a previously proposed model, but has a number of modifications that make it more amenable to potential integration into a wavelet based image compression scheme. These modifications include the use of a separable wavelet transform instead of the cortex transform, the application of a wavelet contrast sensitivity function (CSP), and a simplified definition of subband contrast that allows us to predict noise visibility directly from wavelet coefficients. Initially, we outline the luminance, frequency, and masking sensitivities of the HVS and discuss how these can be incorporated into the wavelet transform. We then outline a number of limitations of the wavelet transform as a model of the HVS, namely the lack of translational invariance and poor orientation sensitivity. In order to investigate the efficacy of this wavelet based model, a wavelet visible difference predictor (WVDP) is described. The WVDP is then used to predict visible differences between an original and compressed (or noisy) image. Results are presented to emphasize the limitations of commonly used measures of image quality and to demonstrate the performance of the WVDP, The paper concludes with suggestions on bow the WVDP can be used to determine a visually optimal quantization strategy for wavelet coefficients and produce a quantitative measure of image quality.

El Nino and arboviral disease prediction

Recent El Nino events have stimulated interest in the development of modeling techniques to forecast extremes of climate and related health events. Previous studies have documented associations between specific climate variables (particularly temperature and rainfall) and outbreaks of arboviral disease. In some countries, such diseases are sensitive to Fl Nino. Here we describe a climate-based model for the prediction of Ross River virus epidemics in Australia. From a literature search and data on case notifications, we determined in which years there were epidemics of Ross River virus in southern Australia between 1928 and 1998. Predictor variables were monthly Southern Oscillation index values for the year of an epidemic or lagged by 1 year. We found that in southeastern states, epidemic years were well predicted by monthly Southern Oscillation index values in January and September in the previous year. The model forecasts that there is a high probability of epidemic Ross River virus in the southern states of Australia in 1999. We conclude that epidemics of arboviral disease can, at least in principle, be predicted on the basis of climate relationships.