Estimation of statistical cure from cancer using population-based data

Dissertação de mestrado em Estatística

Retrospective Study of the Survival of Patients who Underwent Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation in an Intensive Care Unit

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate clinical and evolutive characteristics of patients admitted in an intensive care unit after cardiopulmonary resuscitation, identifying prognostic survival factors.METHODS: A retrospective study of 136 patients admitted between 1995 and 1999 to an intensive care unit, evaluating clinical conditions, mechanisms and causes of cardiopulmonary arrest, and their relation to hospital mortality.RESULTS: A 76% mortality rate independent of age and sex was observed. Asystole was the most frequent mechanism of death, and seen in isolation pulmonary arrest was the least frequent. Cardiac failure, need for mechanical ventilation, cirrhosis and previous stroke were clinically significant (p<0.01) death factors.CONCLUSION: Prognostic factors supplement the doctor's decision as to whether or not a patient will benefit from cardiopulmonary resuscitation.

Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio and Platelet-to-Lymphocyte Ratio are Predictors of Heart Failure

Abstract Background: Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) are inflammatory markers used as prognostic factors in various diseases. The aims of this study were to compare the PLR and the NLR of heart failure (HF) patients with those of age-sex matched controls, to evaluate the predictive value of those markers in detecting HF, and to demonstrate the effect of NLR and PLR on mortality in HF patients during follow-up. Methods: This study included 56 HF patients and 40 controls without HF. All subjects underwent transthoracic echocardiography to evaluate cardiac functions. The NLR and the PLR were calculated as the ratio of neutrophil count to lymphocyte count and as the ratio of platelet count to lymphocyte count, respectively. All HF patients were followed after their discharge from the hospital to evaluate mortality, cerebrovascular events, and re-hospitalization. Results: The NLR and the PLR of HF patients were significantly higher compared to those of the controls (p < 0.01). There was an inverse correlation between the NLR and the left ventricular ejection fraction of the study population (r: -0.409, p < 0.001). The best cut-off value of NLR to predict HF was 3.0, with 86.3% sensitivity and 77.5% specificity, and the best cut-off value of PLR to predict HF was 137.3, with 70% sensitivity and 60% specificity. Only NLR was an independent predictor of mortality in HF patients. A cut-off value of 5.1 for NLR can predict death in HF patients with 75% sensitivity and 62% specificity during a 12.8-month follow-up period on average. Conclusion: NLR and PLR were higher in HF patients than in age-sex matched controls. However, NLR and PLR were not sufficient to establish a diagnosis of HF. NLR can be used to predict mortality during the follow-up of HF patients.

Long-term follow-up of high-dose chemotherapy with autologous stem-cell transplantation and response-adapted whole-brain radiotherapy for newly diagnosed primary CNS lymphoma: results of the multicenter Ostdeutsche Studiengruppe Hamato-Onkologie OSHO-53 phase II study

Introduction: We previously reported the results of a phase II study for patients with newly diagnosed primary CNS lymphoma (PCNSL) treated with autologous peripheral blood stem-cell transplantation (aPBSCT) and responseadapted whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT). The purpose of this report is to update the initial results and provide long-term data regarding overall survival, prognostic factors, and the risk of treatment-related neurotoxicity.Methods: A long-term follow-up was conducted on surviving primary central nervous system lymphoma patients having been treated according to the ,,OSHO-53 study", which was initiated by the Ostdeutsche Studiengruppe Hamatologie-Onkologie. Between August 1999 and October 2004 twentythree patients with an average age of 55 and median Karnofsky performance score of 70% were enrolled and received high-dose mthotrexate (HD-MTX) on days 1 and 10. In case of at least a partial remission (PR), high-dose busulfan/ thiotepa (HD-BuTT) followed by aPBSCT was performed. Patients without response to induction or without complete remission (CR) after HD-BuTT received WBRT. All patients (n=8), who are alive in 2011, were contacted and Mini Mental State examination (MMSE) and the EORTC QLQ-C30 were performed.Results: Eight patients are still alive with a median follow-up of 116,9 months (79 - 141, range). One of them suffered from a late relapse eight and a half years after initial diagnosis of PCNSL, another one suffers from a gall bladder carcinoma. Both patients are alive, the one with the relapse of PCNSL has finished rescue therapy and is further observed, the one with gall baldder carcinoma is still under therapy. MMSE and QlQ-C30 showed impressive results in the patients, who were not irradiated. Only one of the irradiated patients is still alive with a clear neurologic deficit but acceptable quality of life.Conclusions: Long-term follow-up of our patients, who were included in the OSHO-53 study show an overall survival of 30 percent. If WBRT can be avoided no long-term neurotoxicity has been observed and the patients benefit from excellent Quality of Life. Induction chemotherapy with two cycles of HD-MTX should be intensified to improve the unsatisfactory OAS of 30 percent.

Neo/adjuvant chemotherapy does not improve outcome in resected primary synovial sarcoma: a study of the French Sarcoma Group.

BACKGROUND: There are only scarce data about the benefit of adjunctive chemotherapy in patients with localized synovial sarcoma (SS). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data from 237 SS patients recorded in the database of the French Sarcoma Group were retrospectively analyzed. The respective impact of radiotherapy, neo-adjuvant chemotherapy and adjuvant chemotherapy on overall survival (OS), local recurrence-free survival (LRFS) and distant recurrence-free survival (DRFS) were assessed after adjustment to prognostic factors. RESULTS: The median follow-up was 58 months (range 1-321). Adjuvant, neo-adjuvant chemotherapy and postoperative radiotherapy were administered in 112, 45 and 181 cases, respectively. In all, 59% of patients treated with chemotherapy received an ifosfamide-containing regimen. The 5-year OS, LRFS and DRFS rates were 64.0%, 70% and 57%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, age >35 years old, grade 3 and not-R0 margins were highly significant independent predictors of worse OS. After adjustment to prognostic factors, radiotherapy significantly improved LRFS but not DRFS or OS. Neither neo-adjuvant nor adjuvant chemotherapy had significant impact on OS, LRFS or DRFS. CONCLUSION: As for other high-grade soft-tissue sarcomas, well-planned wide surgical excision with adjuvant radiotherapy remains the cornerstone of treatment for SS. Neo-adjuvant or adjuvant chemotherapy should not be delivered outside a clinical trial setting.

Perinatal care at the limit of viability between 22 and 26 completed weeks of gestation in Switzerland.

Perinatal care of pregnant women at high risk for preterm delivery and of preterm infants born at the limit of viability (22-26 completed weeks of gestation) requires a multidisciplinary approach by an experienced perinatal team. Limited precision in the determination of both gestational age and foetal weight, as well as biological variability may significantly affect the course of action chosen in individual cases. The decisions that must be taken with the pregnant women and on behalf of the preterm infant in this context are complex and have far-reaching consequences. When counselling pregnant women and their partners, neonatologists and obstetricians should provide them with comprehensive information in a sensitive and supportive way to build a basis of trust. The decisions are developed in a continuing dialogue between all parties involved (physicians, midwives, nursing staff and parents) with the principal aim to find solutions that are in the infant's and pregnant woman's best interest. Knowledge of current gestational age-specific mortality and morbidity rates and how they are modified by prenatally known prognostic factors (estimated foetal weight, sex, exposure or nonexposure to antenatal corticosteroids, single or multiple births) as well as the application of accepted ethical principles form the basis for responsible decision-making. Communication between all parties involved plays a central role. The members of the interdisciplinary working group suggest that the care of preterm infants with a gestational age between 22 0/7 and 23 6/7 weeks should generally be limited to palliative care. Obstetric interventions for foetal indications such as Caesarean section delivery are usually not indicated. In selected cases, for example, after 23 weeks of pregnancy have been completed and several of the above mentioned prenatally known prognostic factors are favourable or well informed parents insist on the initiation of life-sustaining therapies, active obstetric interventions for foetal indications and provisional intensive care of the neonate may be reasonable. In preterm infants with a gestational age between 24 0/7 and 24 6/7 weeks, it can be difficult to determine whether the burden of obstetric interventions and neonatal intensive care is justified given the limited chances of success of such a therapy. In such cases, the individual constellation of prenatally known factors which impact on prognosis can be helpful in the decision making process with the parents. In preterm infants with a gestational age between 25 0/7 and 25 6/7 weeks, foetal surveillance, obstetric interventions for foetal indications and neonatal intensive care measures are generally indicated. However, if several prenatally known prognostic factors are unfavourable and the parents agree, primary non-intervention and neonatal palliative care can be considered. All pregnant women with threatening preterm delivery or premature rupture of membranes at the limit of viability must be transferred to a perinatal centre with a level III neonatal intensive care unit no later than 23 0/7 weeks of gestation, unless emergency delivery is indicated. An experienced neonatology team should be involved in all deliveries that take place after 23 0/7 weeks of gestation to help to decide together with the parents if the initiation of intensive care measures appears to be appropriate or if preference should be given to palliative care (i.e., primary non-intervention). In doubtful situations, it can be reasonable to initiate intensive care and to admit the preterm infant to a neonatal intensive care unit (i.e., provisional intensive care). The infant's clinical evolution and additional discussions with the parents will help to clarify whether the life-sustaining therapies should be continued or withdrawn. Life support is continued as long as there is reasonable hope for survival and the infant's burden of intensive care is acceptable. If, on the other hand, the health care team and the parents have to recognise that in the light of a very poor prognosis the burden of the currently used therapies has become disproportionate, intensive care measures are no longer justified and other aspects of care (e.g., relief of pain and suffering) are the new priorities (i.e., redirection of care). If a decision is made to withhold or withdraw life-sustaining therapies, the health care team should focus on comfort care for the dying infant and support for the parents.

Value of allogeneic versus autologous stem cell transplantation and chemotherapy in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes and secondary acute myeloid leukemia. Final results of a prospective randomized European Intergroup Trial.

BACKGROUND: Allogeneic stem cell transplantation is usually considered the only curative treatment option for patients with advanced or transformed myelodysplastic syndromes in complete remission, but post-remission chemotherapy and autologous stem cell transplantation are potential alternatives, especially in patients over 45 years old. DESIGN AND METHODS: We evaluated, after intensive anti-leukemic remission-induction chemotherapy, the impact of the availability of an HLA-identical sibling donor on an intention-to treat basis. Additionally, all patients without a sibling donor in complete remission after the first consolidation course were randomized to either autologous peripheral blood stem cell transplantation or a second consolidation course consisting of high-dose cytarabine. RESULTS: The 4-year survival of the 341 evaluable patients was 28%. After achieving complete remission, the 4-year survival rates of patients under 55 years old with or without a donor were 54% and 41%, respectively, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.81 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.49-1.35) for survival and of 0.67 (95% CI, 0.42-1.06) for disease-free survival. In patients with intermediate/high risk cytogenetic abnormalities the hazard ratio in multivariate analysis was 0.58 (99% CI, 0.22-1.50) (P=0.14) for survival and 0.46 (99% CI, 0.22-1.50) for disease-free survival (P=0.03). In contrast, in patients with low risk cytogenetic characteristics the hazard ratio for survival was 1.17 (99% CI, 0.40-3.42) and that for disease-free survival was 1.02 (99% CI, 0.40-2.56). The 4-year survival of the 65 patients randomized to autologous peripheral blood stem cell transplantation or a second consolidation course of high-dose cytarabine was 37% and 27%, respectively. The hazard ratio in multivariate analysis was 1.22 (95% CI, 0.65-2.27) for survival and 1.02 (95% CI, 0.56-1.85) for disease-free survival. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with a donor and candidates for allogeneic stem cell transplantation in first complete remission may have a better disease-free survival than those without a donor in case of myelodysplastic syndromes with intermediate/high-risk cytogenetics. Autologous peripheral blood stem cell transplantation does not provide longer survival than intensive chemotherapy.

Leukemic cluster growth in culture is an independent risk factor for acute myeloid leukemia and short survival in patients with myelodysplastic syndrome

In patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) precursor cell cultures (colony-forming unit cells, CFU-C) can provide an insight into the growth potential of malignant myeloid cells. In a retrospective single-center study of 73 untreated MDS patients we assessed whether CFU-C growth patterns were of prognostic value in addition to established criteria. Abnormalities were classified as qualitative (i.e. leukemic cluster growth) or quantitative (i.e. strongly reduced/absent growth). Thirty-nine patients (53%) showed leukemic growth, 26 patients (36%) had strongly reduced/absent colony growth, and 12 patients showed both. In a univariate analysis the presence of leukemic growth was associated with strongly reduced survival (at 10 years 4 vs. 34%, p = 0.004), and a high incidence of transformation to AML (76 vs. 32%, p = 0.01). Multivariate analysis identified leukemic growth as a strong and independent predictor of early death (relative risk 2.12, p = 0.03) and transformation to AML (relative risk 2.63, p = 0.04). Quantitative abnormalities had no significant impact on the disease course. CFU- C assays have significant predictive value in addition to established prognostic factors in MDS. Leukemic growth identifies a subpopulation of MDS patients with poor prognosis.

Decreased local control following radiation therapy alone in early-stage glottic carcinoma with anterior commissure extension.

PURPOSE: To assess the patterns of failure in the treatment of early-stage squamous cell carcinoma of the glottic larynx. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Between 1983-2000, 122 consecutive patients treated for early laryngeal cancer (UICC T1N0 and T2N0) by radical radiation therapy (RT) were retrospectively studied. Male-to-female ratio was 106 : 16, and median age 62 years (35-92 years). There were 68 patients with T1a, 18 with T1b, and 36 with T2 tumors. Diagnosis was made by biopsy in 104 patients, and by laser vaporization or stripping in 18. Treatment planning consisted of three-dimensional (3-D) conformal RT in 49 (40%) patients including nine patients irradiated using arytenoid protection. A median dose of 70 Gy (60-74 Gy) was given (2 Gy/fraction) over a median period of 46 days (21-79 days). Median follow-up period was 85 months. RESULTS: The 5-year overall, cancer-specific, and disease-free survival amounted to 80%, 94%, and 70%, respectively. 5-year local control was 83%. Median time to local recurrence in 19 patients was 13 months (5-58 months). Salvage treatment consisted of surgery in 17 patients (one patient refused salvage and one was inoperable; total laryngectomy in eleven, and partial laryngectomy or cordectomy in six patients). Six patients died because of laryngeal cancer. Univariate analyses revealed that prognostic factors negatively influencing local control were anterior commissure extension, arytenoid protection, and total RT dose < 66 Gy. Among the factors analyzed, multivariate analysis (Cox model) demonstrated that anterior commissure extension, arytenoid protection, and male gender were the worst independent prognostic factors in terms of local control. CONCLUSION: For early-stage laryngeal cancer, outcome after RT is excellent. In case of anterior commissure extension, surgery or higher RT doses are warranted. Because of a high relapse risk, arytenoid protection should not be attempted.

Detection rate of FNA cytology in medullary thyroid carcinoma: a meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The early detection of medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) can improve patient prognosis, because histological stage and patient age at diagnosis are highly relevant prognostic factors. As a consequence, delay in the diagnosis and/or incomplete surgical treatment should correlate with a poorer prognosis for patients. Few papers have evaluated the specific capability of fine-needle aspiration cytology (FNAC) to detect MTC, and small series have been reported. This study conducts a meta-analysis of published data on the diagnostic performance of FNAC in MTC to provide more robust estimates. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A comprehensive computer literature search of the PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase and Scopus databases was conducted by searching for the terms 'medullary thyroid' AND 'cytology', 'FNA', 'FNAB', 'FNAC', 'fine needle' or 'fine-needle'. The search was updated until 21 March 2014, and no language restrictions were used. RESULTS: Fifteen relevant studies and 641 MTC lesions that had undergone FNAC were included. The detection rate (DR) of FNAC in patients with MTC (diagnosed as 'MTC' or 'suspicious for MTC') on a per lesion-based analysis ranged from 12·5% to 88·2%, with a pooled estimate of 56·4% (95% CI: 52·6-60·1%). The included studies were statistically heterogeneous in their estimates of DR (I-square >50%). Egger's regression intercept for DR pooling was 0·03 (95% CI: -3·1 to 3·2, P = 0·9). The study that reported the largest MTC series had a DR of 45%. Data on immunohistochemistry for calcitonin in diagnosing MTC were inconsistent for the meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The presented meta-analysis demonstrates that FNAC is able to detect approximately one-half of MTC lesions. These findings suggest that other techniques may be needed in combination with FNAC to diagnose MTC and avoid false negative results.

Liver Transplantation for Neuroendocrine Tumors in Europe-Results and Trends in Patient Selection: A 213-Case European Liver Transplant Registry Study.

OBJECTIVE:: The purpose of this study was to assess outcomes and indications in a large cohort of patients who underwent liver transplantation (LT) for liver metastases (LM) from neuroendocrine tumors (NET) over a 27-year period. BACKGROUND:: LT for NET remains controversial due to the absence of clear selection criteria and the scarcity and heterogeneity of reported cases. METHODS:: This retrospective multicentric study included 213 patients who underwent LT for NET performed in 35 centers in 11 European countries between 1982 and 2009. One hundred seven patients underwent transplantation before 2000 and 106 after 2000. Mean age at the time of LT was 46 years. Half of the patients presented hormone secretion and 55% had hepatomegaly. Before LT, 83% of patients had undergone surgical treatment of the primary tumor and/or LM and 76% had received chemotherapy. The median interval between diagnosis of LM and LT was 25 months (range, 1-149 months). In addition to LT, 24 patients underwent major resection procedures and 30 patients underwent minor resection procedures. RESULTS:: Three-month postoperative mortality was 10%. At 5 years after LT, overall survival (OS) was 52% and disease-free survival was 30%. At 5 years from diagnosis of LM, OS was 73%. Multivariate analysis identified 3 predictors of poor outcome, that is, major resection in addition to LT, poor tumor differentiation, and hepatomegaly. Since 2000, 5-year OS has increased to 59% in relation with fewer patients presenting poor prognostic factors. Multivariate analysis of the 106 cases treated since 2000 identified the following predictors of poor outcome: hepatomegaly, age more than 45 years, and any amount of resection concurrent with LT. CONCLUSIONS:: LT is an effective treatment of unresectable LM from NET. Patient selection based on the aforementioned predictors can achieve a 5-year OS between 60% and 80%. However, use of overly restrictive criteria may deny LT to some patients who could benefit. Optimal timing for LT in patients with stable versus progressive disease remains unclear.

Clinical characteristics and outcome of patients admitted to a medico- surgical ICU requiring non invasive ventilation (NIV) for hypercapnic respiratory failure

Introduction Because it decreases intubation rate and mortality, NIV has become first-line treatment in case of hypercapnic acute respiratory failure (HARF). Whether this approach is equally successful for all categories of HARF patients is however debated. We assessed if any clinical characteristics of HARF patients were associated with NIV intensity, success, and outcome, in order to identify prognostic factors. Methods Retrospective analysis of the clinical database (clinical information system and MDSi) of patients consecutively admitted to our medico-surgical ICU, presenting with HARF (defined as PaCO2 > 50 mmHg), and receiving NIV between May 2008 and December 2010. Demographic data, medical diagnoses (including documented chronic lung disease), reason for ICU hospitalization, recent surgical interventions, SAPS II and McCabe scores were extracted from the database. Total duration of NIV and the need for tracheal intubation during the 5 days following the first hypercapnia documentation, as well as ICU, hospital and one year mortality were recorded. Results are reported as median [IQR]. Comparisons were carried out with Chi2 or Kruskal-Wallis tests, p<0.05 (*). Results Two hundred and twenty patients were included. NIV successful patients received 16 [9-31] hours of NIV for up to 5 days. Fifty patients (22.7%) were intubated 11 [2-34] hours after HARF occurence, after having receiving 10 [5-21] hours of NIV. Intubation was correlated with increased ICU (18% vs. 6%, p<0.05) and hospital (42% vs. 31%, p>0.05) mortality. SAPS II score was related to increasing ICU (51 [29-74] vs. 23 [12-41]%, p<0.05), hospital (37% [20-59] vs 20% [12-37], p<0.05) and one year mortality (35% vs 20%, p<0.05). Surgical patients were less frequent among hospital fatalities (28.8% vs. 46.3%, p<0.05, RR 0.8 [0-6-0.9]). Nineteen patients (8.6%) died in the ICU, 73 (33.2%) during their hospital stay and 108 (49.1%) were dead one year after HARF. Conclusion The practice to start NIV in all suitable patients suffering from HARF is appropriate. NIV can safely and appropriately be used in patients suffering from HARF from an origin different from COPD exacerbation. Beside usual predictors of severity such as severity score (SAPS II) appear to be associated with increased mortality. Although ICU mortality was low in our patients, hospital and one year mortality were substantial. Surgical patients, although undergoing a similar ICU course, had a better hospital and one year outcome.

Molecular risk assessment of BIG 1-98 participants by expression profiling using RNA from archival tissue.

Background: The purpose of the work reported here is to test reliable molecular profiles using routinely processed formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissues from participants of the clinical trial BIG 1-98 with a median follow-up of 60 months. Methods: RNA from fresh frozen (FF) and FFPE tumor samples of 82 patients were used for quality control, and independent FFPE tissues of 342 postmenopausal participants of BIG 1-98 with ER-positive cancer were analyzed by measuring prospectively selected genes and computing scores representing the functions of the estrogen receptor (eight genes, ER_8), the progesterone receptor (five genes, PGR_5), Her2 (two genes, HER2_2), and proliferation (ten genes, PRO_10) by quantitative reverse transcription PCR (qRT-PCR) on TaqMan Low Density Arrays. Molecular scores were computed for each category and ER_8, PGR_5, HER2_2, and PRO_10 scores were combined into a RISK_25 score. Results: Pearson correlation coefficients between FF- and FFPE-derived scores were at least 0.94 and high concordance was observed between molecular scores and immunohistochemical data. The HER2_2, PGR_ 5, PRO_10 and RISK_25 scores were significant predictors of disease free-survival (DFS) in univariate Cox proportional hazard regression. PRO_10 and RISK_25 scores predicted DFS in patients with histological grade II breast cancer and in lymph node positive disease. The PRO_10 and PGR_ 5 scores were independent predictors of DFS in multivariate Cox regression models incorporating clinical risk indicators; PRO_10 outperformed Ki-67 labeling index in multivariate Cox proportional hazard analyses. Conclusions: Scores representing the endocrine responsiveness and proliferation status of breast cancers were developed from gene expression analyses based on RNA derived from FFPE tissues. The validation of the molecular scores with tumor samples of participants of the BIG 1-98 trial demonstrates that such scores can serve as independent prognostic factors to estimate disease free survival (DFS) in postmenopausal patients with estrogen receptor positive breast cancer.

An analysis of the components of pain, function, and health-related quality of life in patients with failed back surgery syndrome treated with spinal cord stimulation or conventional medical management

Objectives: Failed back surgery syndrome (FBSS) patients experience pain, functional disability, and reduced health-related quality of life (HRQoL) despite anatomically successful surgery. Examining sub-dimensions of health outcomes measures provides insight into patient well-being. Materials and Methods: The international multicenter PROCESS trial collected detailed HRQoL (EuroQol-5D; Short-Form 36) and function (Oswestry Disability Index) information on 100 FBSS patients. Results: At baseline, patients reported moderate-to-severe leg and back pain adversely affecting all dimensions of function and HRQoL. Compared with conventional medical management alone, patients also receiving spinal cord stimulation (SCS) reported superior pain relief, function, and HRQoL at six months on overall and most sub-component scores. The majority of these improvements with SCS were sustained at 24 months. Nonetheless, 36-40% of patients experienced ongoing marked disability (standing, lifting) and HRQoL problems (pain/discomfort). Conclusions: Longer-term patient management and research must focus on these refractory FBSS patients with persisting poor function and HRQoL outcomes.

Leukemic cluster growth in culture is an independent risk factor for acute myeloid leukemia and short survival in patients with myelodysplastic syndrome.

In patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) precursor cell cultures (colony-forming unit cells, CFU-C) can provide an insight into the growth potential of malignant myeloid cells. In a retrospective single-center study of 73 untreated MDS patients we assessed whether CFU-C growth patterns were of prognostic value in addition to established criteria. Abnormalities were classified as qualitative (i.e. leukemic cluster growth) or quantitative (i.e. strongly reduced/absent growth). Thirty-nine patients (53%) showed leukemic growth, 26 patients (36%) had strongly reduced/absent colony growth, and 12 patients showed both. In a univariate analysis the presence of leukemic growth was associated with strongly reduced survival (at 10 years 4 vs. 34%, p = 0.004), and a high incidence of transformation to AML (76 vs. 32%, p = 0.01). Multivariate analysis identified leukemic growth as a strong and independent predictor of early death (relative risk 2.12, p = 0.03) and transformation to AML (relative risk 2.63, p = 0.04). Quantitative abnormalities had no significant impact on the disease course. CFU-C assays have a significant predictive value in addition to established prognostic factors in MDS. Leukemic growth identifies a subpopulation of MDS patients with poor prognosis.