Contracting over Prices

We defi ne a solution concept, perfectly contracted equilibrium, for an intertemporal exchange economy where agents are simultaneously price takers in spot commodity markets while engaging in non-Walrasian contracting over future prices. In a setting with subjective uncertainty over future prices, we show that perfectly contracted equi- librium outcomes are a subset of Pareto optimal allocations. It is a robust possibility for perfectly contracted equilibrium outcomes to di er from Arrow-Debreu equilibrium outcomes. We show that both centralized banking and retrading with bilateral contracting can lead to perfectly contracted equilibria.

Persistent bundles over a two dimensional compact set

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Unemployment and Endogenous Reallocation over the Business Cycle

This paper studies unemployed workers’ decisions to change occupations, and their impact on fluctuations in aggregate unemployment and its underlying duration distribution. We develop an analytically and computationally tractable stochastic equilibrium model with heterogenous labor markets. In this model three different types of unemployment arise: search, rest and reallocation unemployment. We document new evidence on unemployed workers’ gross occupational mobility and use it to calibrate the model. We show that rest unemployment is the main driver of unemployment fluctuations over the business cycle and causes cyclical unemployment to be highly volatile. The resulting unemployment duration distribution generated by the model responds realistically to the business cycle, creating substantial longer-term unemployment in downturns. Finally, rest unemployment also makes our model simultaneously consistent with procyclical occupational mobility of the unemployed, countercyclical job separations into unemployment and a negatively-sloped Beveridge curve.

Directed Search over the Life Cycle

We develop a life-cycle model of the labor market in which different worker-firm matches have different quality and the assignment of the right workers to the right firms is time consuming because of search and learning frictions. The rate at which workers move between unemployment, employment and across different firms is endogenous because search is directed and, hence, workers can choose whether to seek low-wage jobs that are easy to find or high-wage jobs that are hard to find. We calibrate our theory using data on labor market transitions aggregated across workers of different ages. We validate our theory by showing that it predicts quite well the pattern of labor market transitions for workers of different ages. Finally, we use our theory to decompose the age profiles of transition rates, wages and productivity into the effects of age variation in work-life expectancy, human capital and match quality.

Are the high-growth recovery periods over?

We present evidence about the loss of the so-called "plucking effect", that is, a high-growth phase of the cycle typically observed at the end of recessions. This result matches the popular belief, presented informally by different authors, that the current recession will have permanent effects, or that the current recession will have an L shape versus the old-time recessions that have always had a V shape. Furthermore, we show that the loss of the "plucking effect" can explain part of the Great Moderation. We postulate that these two phenomena may be due to changes in inventory management brought about by improvements in information and communications technologies.

Evaluation of the xenodiagnosis of chronic Chagas patients infected ten years or over in an area where transmission has been interrupted - Iguatama and Pains, west Minas Gerais State, Brazil

To evaluate the results of xenodiagnosis in chronic Chagas patients infected for ten years or over in an area where transmission has been stemmed as well as the performance of these tests applied one or more times to determine the presence of the paraiste in serum-positive patients for Trypanosoma cruzi infection, 570 xenodiagnosis were performed in 246 patients by exoposing each pacient to 40 Triatoma infestans nymphs of 3 rd/4th stage once, twice or three times, at 30 days intervals. The 570 xenodiagnosis showed overall positive results in 50.7% with a peak 78% in patients under 20 years of age, and 60.5% in those over 60. Of the l58 patients who underwent three xenodiagnosis, 51 (32.3%) had three positive tests, 48 (30.3%) had all negative results, and the remainder had alternating positve and negative findings. There was no difference in number of positive results between the 1st, 2nd and 2rd tests; however, the 1st and 2nd trials added up to 53.2% and the sum total of all three trials was 57.7%.

Decreasing population selection rates of resistance mutation K65R over time in HIV-1 patients receiving combination therapy including tenofovir.

OBJECTIVES: The use of tenofovir is highly associated with the emergence of mutation K65R, which confers broad resistance to nucleoside/nucleotide analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), especially when tenofovir is combined with other NRTIs also selecting for K65R. Although recent HIV-1 treatment guidelines discouraging these combinations resulted in reduced K65R selection with tenofovir, updated information on the impact of currently recommended regimens on the population selection rate of K65R is presently lacking. METHODS: In this study, we evaluated changes over time in the selection rate of resistance mutation K65R in a large population of 2736 HIV-1-infected patients failing combination antiretroviral treatment between 2002 and 2010. RESULTS: The K65R resistance mutation was detected in 144 patients, a prevalence of 5.3%. A large majority of observed K65R cases were explained by the use of tenofovir, reflecting its wide use in clinical practice. However, changing patterns over time in NRTIs accompanying tenofovir resulted in a persistent decreasing probability of K65R selection by tenofovir-based therapy. The currently recommended NRTI combination tenofovir/emtricitabine was associated with a low probability of K65R emergence. For any given dual NRTI combination including tenofovir, higher selection rates of K65R were consistently observed with a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor than with a protease inhibitor as the third agent. DISCUSSION: Our finding of a stable time trend of K65R despite elevated use of tenofovir illustrates increased potency of current HIV-1 therapy including tenofovir.

Aspects of Iwasawa theory over function fields

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Radio-frequency ablation as primary management of well-tolerated sustained monomorphic ventricular tachycardia in patients with structural heart disease and left ventricular ejection fraction over 30%.

AIMS: Patients with well-tolerated sustained monomorphic ventricular tachycardia (SMVT) and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) over 30% may benefit from a primary strategy of VT ablation without immediate need for a 'back-up' implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD). METHODS AND RESULTS: One hundred and sixty-six patients with structural heart disease (SHD), LVEF over 30%, and well-tolerated SMVT (no syncope) underwent primary radiofrequency ablation without ICD implantation at eight European centres. There were 139 men (84%) with mean age 62 ± 15 years and mean LVEF of 50 ± 10%. Fifty-five percent had ischaemic heart disease, 19% non-ischaemic cardiomyopathy, and 12% arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy. Three hundred seventy-eight similar patients were implanted with an ICD during the same period and serve as a control group. All-cause mortality was 12% (20 patients) over a mean follow-up of 32 ± 27 months. Eight patients (40%) died from non-cardiovascular causes, 8 (40%) died from non-arrhythmic cardiovascular causes, and 4 (20%) died suddenly (SD) (2.4% of the population). All-cause mortality in the control group was 12%. Twenty-seven patients (16%) had a non-fatal recurrence at a median time of 5 months, while 20 patients (12%) required an ICD, of whom 4 died (20%). CONCLUSION: Patients with well-tolerated SMVT, SHD, and LVEF > 30% undergoing primary VT ablation without a back-up ICD had a very low rate of arrhythmic death and recurrences were generally non-fatal. These data would support a randomized clinical trial comparing this approach with others incorporating implantation of an ICD as a primary strategy.

Dimensionality of drinking consequences - cross-cultural comparability and stability over time

Despite the long tradition for asking about the negative social and health consequences of alcohol consumption in surveys, little is known about the dimensionality of these consequences. Analysing cross-sectional and longitudinal data from the Nordic Taxation Study collected for Sweden, Finland, and Denmark in two waves in 2003 and 2004 by means of an explorative principal component analysis for categorical data (CATPCA), it is tested whether consequences have a single underlying dimension across cultures. It further tests the reliability, replicability, concurrent and predictive validity of the consequence scales. A one-dimensional solution was commonly preferable. Whereas the two-dimensional solution was unable to distinguish clearly between different concepts of consequences, the one-dimensional solution resulted in interpretable, generally very stable scales within countries across different samples and time.

What are the causes of educational inequalities and of their evolution over time in Europe? Evidence from PISA

This paper provides evidence on the sources of differences in inequalities in educational scores in European Union member states, by decomposing them into their determining factors. Using PISA data from the 2000 and 2006 waves, the paper shows that inequalities emerge in all countries and in both period, but decreased in Germany, whilst they increased in France and Italy. Decomposition shows that educational inequalities do not only reflect background related inequality, but especially schools’ characteristics. The findings allow policy makers to target areas that may make a contribution in reducing educational inequalities.

Onchocerciasis in Ecuador: changes in prevalence of ocular lesions in Onchocerca volvulus infected individuals over the period 1980-1990

Trends in prevalence rates of onchocercal ocular lesions were examined over the period 1980 to 1990 using data from two cross-sectional surveys. There was evidence for increasing prevalence of anterior chamber microfilariae, iridocyclitis, optic atrophy, and chorioretinopathy. Large increases in prevalence, in particular, were seen for posterior segment lesions: optic atrophy increased from 2.7% to 6.4% and chorioretinopathy from 8.8% to 35.6%. Greatest increases in these lesions were seen in the Chachi which was attributed to the large increases in prevalence of microfilariae in the anterior chamber particularly in those aged 30 years or greater. The study findings suggest that ocular onchocerciasis is evolving in parallel with the well documented parasitological changes.

The effect of different proportions of males and females over the Chrysomya albiceps (Wiedemann 1819) (Diptera, Calliphoridae) biotic potential and longevity under laboratory conditions

Chrysomya albiceps specimens were derived from colonies kept under laboratory conditions. The oviposition period, total number of eggs-mass and the weight of the eggs-mass (average/female) presented significant differences between colonies regarding the sexual ratio of 1male/1female (situation I), when compared to the other ratios (1male/3female, situation II), (1male/5female, situation III), (3male/1female, situation IV) and (5 male/1female, situation V). It was ascertained that the increase in the proportion of females, resulted in higher weight and greater number of ovipositions and lenghtening of the period of oviposition, leads to a decrease in their lifespan.