Modelling of weather radar echoes from anomalous propagation using a hybrid parabolic equation method and NWP model data

Contamination of weather radar echoes by anomalous propagation (anaprop) mechanisms remains a serious issue in quality control of radar precipitation estimates. Although significant progress has been made identifying clutter due to anaprop there is no unique method that solves the question of data reliability without removing genuine data. The work described here relates to the development of a software application that uses a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to obtain the temperature, humidity and pressure fields to calculate the three dimensional structure of the atmospheric refractive index structure, from which a physically based prediction of the incidence of clutter can be made. This technique can be used in conjunction with existing methods for clutter removal by modifying parameters of detectors or filters according to the physical evidence for anomalous propagation conditions. The parabolic equation method (PEM) is a well established technique for solving the equations for beam propagation in a non-uniformly stratified atmosphere, but although intrinsically very efficient, is not sufficiently fast to be practicable for near real-time modelling of clutter over the entire area observed by a typical weather radar. We demonstrate a fast hybrid PEM technique that is capable of providing acceptable results in conjunction with a high-resolution terrain elevation model, using a standard desktop personal computer. We discuss the performance of the method and approaches for the improvement of the model profiles in the lowest levels of the troposphere.

Accurate calculations of intermolecular interaction energies using explicitly correlated coupled cluster wave functions and a dispersion-weighted MP2 method.

Explicitly correlated coupled-cluster calculations of intermolecular interaction energies for the S22 benchmark set of Jurecka, Sponer, Cerny, and Hobza (Chem. Phys. Phys. Chem. 2006, 8, 1985) are presented. Results obtained with the recently proposed CCSD(T)-F12a method and augmented double-zeta basis sets are found to be in very close agreement with basis set extrapolated conventional CCSD(T) results. Furthermore, we propose a dispersion-weighted MP2 (DW-MP2) approximation that combines the good accuracy of MP2 for complexes with predominately electrostatic bonding and SCS-MP2 for dispersion-dominated ones. The MP2-F12 and SCS-MP2-F12 correlation energies are weighted by a switching function that depends on the relative HF and correlation contributions to the interaction energy. For the S22 set, this yields a mean absolute deviation of 0.2 kcal/mol from the CCSD(T)-F12a results. The method, which allows obtaining accurate results at low cost, is also tested for a number of dimers that are not in the training set.

A Transportation Safety Planning Tool for the City of Ames, August 2011

The historically-reactive approach to identifying safety problems and mitigating them involves selecting black spots or hot spots by ranking locations based on crash frequency and severity. The approach focuses mainly on the corridor level without taking the exposure rate (vehicle miles traveled) and socio-demographics information of the study area, which are very important in the transportation planning process, into consideration. A larger study analysis unit at the Transportation Analysis Zone (TAZ) level or the network planning level should be used to address the needs of development of the community in the future and incorporate safety into the long-range transportation planning process. In this study, existing planning tools (such as the PLANSAFE models presented in NCHRP Report 546) were evaluated for forecasting safety in small and medium-sized communities, particularly as related to changes in socio-demographics characteristics, traffic demand, road network, and countermeasures. The research also evaluated the applicability of the Empirical Bayes (EB) method to network-level analysis. In addition, application of the United States Road Assessment Program (usRAP) protocols at the local urban road network level was investigated. This research evaluated the applicability of these three methods for the City of Ames, Iowa. The outcome of this research is a systematic process and framework for considering road safety issues explicitly in the small and medium-sized community transportation planning process and for quantifying the safety impacts of new developments and policy programs. More specifically, quantitative safety may be incorporated into the planning process, through effective visualization and increased awareness of safety issues (usRAP), the identification of high-risk locations with potential for improvement, (usRAP maps and EB), countermeasures for high-risk locations (EB before and after study and PLANSAFE), and socio-economic and demographic induced changes at the planning-level (PLANSAFE).

Pavement Markings and Safety Final Report, November 2010

Previous research on pavement markings from a safety perspective tackled various issues such as pavement marking retroreflectivity variability, relationship between pavement marking retroreflectivity and driver visibility, or pavement marking improvements and safety. A recent research interest in this area has been to find a correlation between retroreflectivity and crashes, but a significant statistical relationship has not yet been found. This study investigates such a possible statistical relationship by analyzing five years of pavement marking retroreflectivity data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) on all state primary roads and corresponding crash and traffic data. This study developed a spatial-temporal database using measured retroreflectivity data to account for the deterioration of pavement markings over time along with statewide crash data to attempt to quantify a relationship between crash occurrence probability and pavement marking retroreflectivity. First, logistic regression analyses were done for the whole data set to find a statistical relationship between crash occurrence probability and identified variables, which are road type, line type, retroreflectivity, and traffic (vehicle miles traveled). The analysis looked into subsets of the data set such as road type, retroreflectivity measurement source, high crash routes, retroreflectivity range, and line types. Retroreflectivity was found to have a significant effect in crash occurrence probability for four data subsets—interstate, white edge line, yellow edge line, and yellow center line data. For white edge line and yellow center line data, crash occurrence probability was found to increase by decreasing values of retroreflectivity.

A new accelerometric method to assess the daily walking practice.

OBJECTIVE: To describe a method to obtain a profile of the duration and intensity (speed) of walking periods over 24 hours in women under free-living conditions. DESIGN: A new method based on accelerometry was designed for analyzing walking activity. In order to take into account inter-individual variability of acceleration, an individual calibration process was used. Different experiments were performed to highlight the variability of acceleration vs walking speed relationship, to analyze the speed prediction accuracy of the method, and to test the assessment of walking distance and duration over 24-h. SUBJECTS: Twenty-eight women were studied (mean+/-s.d.) age: 39.3+/-8.9 y; body mass: 79.7+/-11.1 kg; body height: 162.9+/-5.4 cm; and body mass index (BMI) 30.0+/-3.8 kg/m(2). RESULTS: Accelerometer output was significantly correlated with speed during treadmill walking (r=0.95, P<0.01), and short unconstrained walks (r=0.86, P<0.01), although with a large inter-individual variation of the regression parameters. By using individual calibration, it was possible to predict walking speed on a standard urban circuit (predicted vs measured r=0.93, P<0.01, s.e.e.=0.51 km/h). In the free-living experiment, women spent on average 79.9+/-36.0 (range: 31.7-168.2) min/day in displacement activities, from which discontinuous short walking activities represented about 2/3 and continuous ones 1/3. Total walking distance averaged 2.1+/-1.2 (range: 0.4-4.7) km/day. It was performed at an average speed of 5.0+/-0.5 (range: 4.1-6.0) km/h. CONCLUSION: An accelerometer measuring the anteroposterior acceleration of the body can estimate walking speed together with the pattern, intensity and duration of daily walking activity.

Roadway Lighting and Safety: Phase II – Monitoring Quality, Durability and Efficiency, November 2011

This Phase II project follows a previous project titled Strategies to Address Nighttime Crashes at Rural, Unsignalized Intersections. Based on the results of the previous study, the Iowa Highway Research Board (IHRB) indicated interest in pursuing further research to address the quality of lighting, rather than just the presence of light, with respect to safety. The research team supplemented the literature review from the previous study, specifically addressing lighting level in terms of measurement, the relationship between light levels and safety, and lamp durability and efficiency. The Center for Transportation Research and Education (CTRE) teamed with a national research leader in roadway lighting, Virginia Tech Transportation Institute (VTTI) to collect the data. An integral instrument to the data collection efforts was the creation of the Roadway Monitoring System (RMS). The RMS allowed the research team to collect lighting data and approach information for each rural intersection identified in the previous phase. After data cleanup, the final data set contained illuminance data for 101 lighted intersections (of 137 lighted intersections in the first study). Data analysis included a robust statistical analysis based on Bayesian techniques. Average illuminance, average glare, and average uniformity ratio values were used to classify quality of lighting at the intersections.

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Red Light Running Camera Enforcement in Cedar Rapids and Developing Guidelines For Selection and use of Red Light Running Countermeasures, Midwest Transportation Consortium, Final Report November 2011.

Red light running (RLR) is a problem in the US that has resulted in 165,000 injuries and 907 fatalities annually. In Iowa, RLR-related crashes make up 24.5 percent of all crashes and account for 31.7 percent of fatal and major injury crashes at signalized intersections. RLR crashes are a safety concern due to the increased likelihood of injury compared to other types of crashes. One tool used to combat red light running is automated enforcement in the form of RLR cameras. Automated enforcement, while effective, is often controversial. Cedar Rapids, Iowa installed RLR and speeding cameras at seven intersections across the city. The intersections were chosen based on crash rates and whether cameras could feasibly be placed at the intersection approaches. The cameras were placed starting in February 2010 with the last one becoming operational in December 2010. An analysis of the effect of the cameras on safety at these intersections was determined prudent in helping to justify the installation and effectiveness of the cameras. The objective of this research was to assess the safety effectiveness of the RLR program that has been implemented in Cedar Rapids. This was accomplished by analyzing data to determine changes in the following metrics:  Reductions in red light violation rates based on overall changes, time of day changes, and changes by lane  Effectiveness of the cameras over time  Time in which those running the red light enter the intersection  Changes in the average headway between vehicles entering the intersection

From Empirical Bayes to Full Bayes: Methods for Analyzubg Traffic Safey Data, October 25, 2004

Traffic safety engineers are among the early adopters of Bayesian statistical tools for analyzing crash data. As in many other areas of application, empirical Bayes methods were their first choice, perhaps because they represent an intuitively appealing, yet relatively easy to implement alternative to purely classical approaches. With the enormous progress in numerical methods made in recent years and with the availability of free, easy to use software that permits implementing a fully Bayesian approach, however, there is now ample justification to progress towards fully Bayesian analyses of crash data. The fully Bayesian approach, in particular as implemented via multi-level hierarchical models, has many advantages over the empirical Bayes approach. In a full Bayesian analysis, prior information and all available data are seamlessly integrated into posterior distributions on which practitioners can base their inferences. All uncertainties are thus accounted for in the analyses and there is no need to pre-process data to obtain Safety Performance Functions and other such prior estimates of the effect of covariates on the outcome of interest. In this light, fully Bayesian methods may well be less costly to implement and may result in safety estimates with more realistic standard errors. In this manuscript, we present the full Bayesian approach to analyzing traffic safety data and focus on highlighting the differences between the empirical Bayes and the full Bayes approaches. We use an illustrative example to discuss a step-by-step Bayesian analysis of the data and to show some of the types of inferences that are possible within the full Bayesian framework.

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Red Light Running Camera Enforcement in Cedar Rapids and Developing Guidelines for Selection and Use of Red Light Running Countermeasures Final Report, November 2011

Red light running (RLR) is a problem in the US that has resulted in 165,000 injuries and 907 fatalities annually. In Iowa, RLR-related crashes make up 24.5 percent of all crashes and account for 31.7 percent of fatal and major injury crashes at signalized intersections. RLR crashes are a safety concern due to the increased likelihood of injury compared to other types of crashes. One tool used to combat red light running is automated enforcement in the form of RLR cameras. Automated enforcement, while effective, is often controversial. Cedar Rapids, Iowa installed RLR and speeding cameras at seven intersections across the city. The intersections were chosen based on crash rates and whether cameras could feasibly be placed at the intersection approaches. The cameras were placed starting in February 2010 with the last one becoming operational in December 2010. An analysis of the effect of the cameras on safety at these intersections was determined prudent in helping to justify the installation and effectiveness of the cameras. The objective of this research was to assess the safety effectiveness of the RLR program that has been implemented in Cedar Rapids. This was accomplished by analyzing data to determine changes in the following metrics:  Reductions in red light violation rates based on overall changes, time of day changes, and changes by lane  Effectiveness of the cameras over time  Time in which those running the red light enter the intersection  Changes in the average headway between vehicles entering the intersection

Roadway Lighting and Safety: Phase II – Monitoring Quality, Durability and Efficiency, November 2011

This Phase II project follows a previous project titled Strategies to Address Nighttime Crashes at Rural, Unsignalized Intersections. Based on the results of the previous study, the Iowa Highway Research Board (IHRB) indicated interest in pursuing further research to address the quality of lighting, rather than just the presence of light, with respect to safety. The research team supplemented the literature review from the previous study, specifically addressing lighting level in terms of measurement, the relationship between light levels and safety, and lamp durability and efficiency. The Center for Transportation Research and Education (CTRE) teamed with a national research leader in roadway lighting, Virginia Tech Transportation Institute (VTTI) to collect the data. An integral instrument to the data collection efforts was the creation of the Roadway Monitoring System (RMS). The RMS allowed the research team to collect lighting data and approach information for each rural intersection identified in the previous phase. After data cleanup, the final data set contained illuminance data for 101 lighted intersections (of 137 lighted intersections in the first study). Data analysis included a robust statistical analysis based on Bayesian techniques. Average illuminance, average glare, and average uniformity ratio values were used to classify quality of lighting at the intersections.

Evaluation of Mitigation for Safety Concerns on Low-Volume, Unpaved Rural Roads, 2013.

The Institute for Transportation (InTrans) at Iowa State University completed work on an in-depth study of crash history on lowvolume, rural roads in Iowa in December 2010. Results indicated that unpaved roads with traffic volumes greater than 100 vehicles per day (vpd) exhibit significantly higher crash frequencies, rates, and densities than any other class of low-volume road examined, paved or unpaved. The total mileage for this class of roadway in Iowa is only about 4,400 miles, spread over 99 counties in the state, which is certainly a manageable number of miles for individual rural agencies. The purpose of this study was to identify and examine several unpaved, local road segments with higher than average crash frequencies, select and undertake potentially-beneficial mitigation, and evaluate the results as time allowed. A variety of low-cost options were considered, including engineering improvements, enhanced efforts by law enforcement, and educational initiatives. Using input, active support, and participation from local agencies and state and Federal safety advocates, the study afforded a unique opportunity to examine useful tools for local rural agencies to utilize in addressing safety on this particular type of roadway.

Evaluation of Mitigation for Safety Concerns on Low-Volume, Unpaved Rural Roads: Tech Transfer Summary, 2013.

The Institute for Transportation (InTrans) at Iowa State University completed work on an in-depth study of crash history on lowvolume, rural roads in Iowa in December 2010. Results indicated that unpaved roads with traffic volumes greater than 100 vehicles per day (vpd) exhibit significantly higher crash frequencies, rates, and densities than any other class of low-volume road examined, paved or unpaved. The total mileage for this class of roadway in Iowa is only about 4,400 miles, spread over 99 counties in the state, which is certainly a manageable number of miles for individual rural agencies. The purpose of this study was to identify and examine several unpaved, local road segments with higher than average crash frequencies, select and undertake potentially-beneficial mitigation, and evaluate the results as time allowed. A variety of low-cost options were considered, including engineering improvements, enhanced efforts by law enforcement, and educational initiatives. Using input, active support, and participation from local agencies and state and Federal safety advocates, the study afforded a unique opportunity to examine useful tools for local rural agencies to utilize in addressing safety on this particular type of roadway.

Moving Beyond Teen Crash Fatality Statistics: The Go-Team Study, GOTM-000, 2013

Despite a trend of decreasing teen fatalities due to motor vehicle crashes over the past decade, they remain the leading cause of adolescent fatalities in Iowa. The purpose of this study was to create detailed case studies of each fatal motor vehicle crash involving a driver under the age of 20 that occurred in Iowa in 2009, 2010, and 2011. Data for each crash were gathered from media sources, law enforcement agencies, and the Iowa Department of Transportation. The driving records of the teens, which included their licensure history, prior traffic citations, and prior crashes, were also acquired. In addition, data about the charges filed against a teen as a result of being involved in a fatal crash were obtained. A total of 126 crashes involving 131 teen drivers that resulted in 143 fatalities were analyzed. Many findings for fatal crashes involving teen drivers in Iowa are consistent with national trends, including the overrepresentation of male drivers, crash involvement that increases with age, crash involvement per vehicle miles traveled that decreases with age, and prevalence of single-vehicle road departure crashes. Relative to national statistics, teen fatalities from crashes in Iowa are more likely to occur from midnight to 6am and from 9am to noon. Crash type varied by driver age and county population level. Teen drivers contributed to the fatal crashes at a rate of 74%; contribution of the teen driver was unknown for 11% of crashes. Speed was a factor for about 25% of the crashes for which a teen driver was at fault. The same was also true of alcohol/drug impairment. Only 20% of the rear-seat occupants of the teen drivers’ vehicles wore seat belts compared to 60% use for the front-seat occupants. Analysis of the teens’ driving records prior to the fatal crash suggests at-fault crashes and speeding violations are associated with contributing to the fatal crash.

Analysis of Existing Work-Zone Devices with MASH Safety Performance Criteria, TPF-5(018), 2009

Crashworthy, work-zone, portable sign support systems accepted under NCHRP Report No. 350 were analyzed to predict their safety peformance according to the TL-3 MASH evaluation criteria. An analysis was conducted to determine which hardware parameters of sign support systems would likely contribute to the safety performance with MASH. The acuracy of the method was evaluated through full-scale crash testing. Four full-scale crash tests were conducted with a pickup truck. Two tall-mounted, sign support systems with aluminum sign panels failed the MASH criteria due to windshield penetration. One low-mounted system with a vinyl, roll-up sign panel failed the MASH criteria due to windshield and floorboard penetration. Another low-mounted system with an aluminum sign panel successfully met the MASH criteria. Four full-scale crash tests were conducted with a small passenger car. The low-mounted tripod system with an aluminum sign panel failed the MASH criteria due to windshield penetration. One low-mounted system with aluminum sign panel failed the MASH criteria due to excessive windshield deformation, and another similar system passed the MASH criteria. The low-mounted system with a vinyl, roll-up sign panel successfully met the MASH criteria. Hardware parameters of work-zone sign support systems that were determined to be important for failure with MASH include sign panel material, the height to the top of the mast, the presence of flags, sign-locking mechanism, base layout and system orientation. Flowcharts were provided to assist manufacturers when designing new sign support systems.