Survival analysis: a tool in the study of post-harvest diseases in peaches

Survival analysis is applied when the time until the occurrence of an event is of interest. Such data are routinely collected in plant diseases, although applications of the method are uncommon. The objective of this study was to use two studies on post-harvest diseases of peaches, considering two harvests together and the existence of random effect shared by fruits of a same tree, in order to describe the main techniques in survival analysis. The nonparametric Kaplan-Meier method, the log-rank test and the semi-parametric Cox's proportional hazards model were used to estimate the effect of cultivars and the number of days after full bloom on the survival to the brown rot symptom and the instantaneous risk of expressing it in two consecutive harvests. The joint analysis with baseline effect, varying between harvests, and the confirmation of the tree effect as a grouping factor with random effect were appropriate to interpret the phenomenon (disease) evaluated and can be important tools to replace or complement the conventional analysis, respecting the nature of the variable and the phenomenon.

Surface plasmon resonance as a tool in the functional analisys of an immunodominant site in foot-and-mouth disease virus

A fast and direct surface plasmon resonance (SPR) method for the kinetic analysis of the interactions between peptide antigens and immobilised monoclonal antibodies (mAb) has been established. Protocols have been developed to overcome the problems posed by the small size of the analytes (< 1600 Da). The interactions were well described by a simple 1:1 bimolecular interaction and the rate constants were self-consistent and reproducible. The key features for the accuracy of the kinetic constants measured were high buffer flow rates, medium antibody surface densities and high peptide concentrations. The method was applied to an extensive analysis of over 40 peptide analogues towards two distinct anti-FMDV antibodies, providing data in total agreement with previous competition ELISA experiments. Eleven linear 15-residue synthetic peptides, reproducing all possible combinations of the four replacements found in foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) field isolate C-S30, were evaluated. The direct kinetic SPR analysis of the interactions between these peptides and three anti-site A mAbs suggested additivity in all combinations of the four relevant mutations, which was confirmed by parallel ELISA analysis. The four-point mutant peptide (A15S30) reproducing site A from the C-S30 strain was the least antigenic of the set, in disagreement with previously reported studies with the virus isolate. Increasing peptide size from 15 to 21 residues did not significantly improve antigenicity. Overnight incubation of A15S30 with mAb 4C4 in solution showed a marked increase in peptide antigenicity not observed for other peptide analogues, suggesting that conformational rearrangement could lead to a stable peptide-antibody complex. In fact, peptide cyclization clearly improved antigenicity, confirming an antigenic reversion in a multiply substituted peptide. Solution NMR studies of both linear and cyclic versions of the antigenic loop of FMDV C-S30 showed that structural features previously correlated with antigenicity were more pronounced in the cyclic peptide. Twenty-six synthetic peptides, corresponding to all possible combinations of five single-point antigenicity-enhancing replacements in the GH loop of FMDV C-S8c1, were also studied. SPR kinetic screening of these peptides was not possible due to problems mainly related to the high mAb affinities displayed by these synthetic antigens. Solution affinity SPR analysis was employed and affinities displayed were generally comparable to or even higher than those corresponding to the C-S8c1 reference peptide A15. The NMR characterisation of one of these multiple mutants in solution showed that it had a conformational behaviour quite similar to that of the native sequence A15 and the X-ray diffraction crystallographic analysis of the peptide ? mAb 4C4 complex showed paratope ? epitope interactions identical to all FMDV peptide ? mAb complexes studied so far. Key residues for these interactions are those directly involved in epitope ? paratope contacts (141Arg, 143Asp, 146His) as well as residues able to stabilise a particular peptide global folding. A quasi-cyclic conformation is held up by a hydrophobic cavity defined by residues 138, 144 and 147 and by other key intrapeptide hydrogen bonds, delineating an open turn at positions 141, 142 and 143 (corresponding to the Arg-Gly-Asp motif).

Public hearings as a tool to improve participation in regulatory policies: case study of the National Agency of Electric Energy

The participation of citizens in public policies is an opportunity not only to educate them, but also to increase their empowerment. However, the best way for deploying participatory policies, defining their scope and approach, still remains an open and continuous debate. Using as a case study the Brazilian National Agency of Electric Energy (Aneel), with its public hearings about tariff review, this paper aims at analyzing the democratic aspects of these hearings and challenges the hypothesis of many scholars about the social participation bias in this kind of procedure. This study points out a majority participation of experts, contrasting with the political content of discussions. And, this way, it contributes to a critical analysis of the public hearings as a participatory tool, indicating their strengths and their aspects which deserve a special attention.

Surgical correction of scoliosis: Numerical analysis and optimization of the procedure

A previously developed model is used to numerically simulate real clinical cases of the surgical correction of scoliosis. This model consists of one-dimensional finite elements with spatial deformation in which (i) the column is represented by its axis; (ii) the vertebrae are assumed to be rigid; and (iii) the deformability of the column is concentrated in springs that connect the successive rigid elements. The metallic rods used for the surgical correction are modeled by beam elements with linear elastic behavior. To obtain the forces at the connections between the metallic rods and the vertebrae geometrically, non-linear finite element analyses are performed. The tightening sequence determines the magnitude of the forces applied to the patient column, and it is desirable to keep those forces as small as possible. In this study, a Genetic Algorithm optimization is applied to this model in order to determine the sequence that minimizes the corrective forces applied during the surgery. This amounts to find the optimal permutation of integers 1, ... , n, n being the number of vertebrae involved. As such, we are faced with a combinatorial optimization problem isomorph to the Traveling Salesman Problem. The fitness evaluation requires one computing intensive Finite Element Analysis per candidate solution and, thus, a parallel implementation of the Genetic Algorithm is developed.

Tsunami vulnerability assessment of Casablanca-Morocco using numerical modelling and GIS tools

Earthquakes and tsunamis along Morocco's coasts have been reported since historical times. The threat posed by tsunamis must be included in coastal risk studies. This study focuses on the tsunami impact and vulnerability assessment of the Casablanca harbour and surrounding area using a combination of tsunami inundation numerical modelling, field survey data and geographic information system. The tsunami scenario used here is compatible with the 1755 Lisbon event that we considered to be the worst case tsunami scenario. Hydrodynamic modelling was performed with an adapted version of the Cornell Multigrid Coupled Tsunami Model from Cornell University. The simulation covers the eastern domain of the Azores-Gibraltar fracture zone corresponding to the largest tsunamigenic area in the North Atlantic. The proposed vulnerability model attempts to provide an insight into the tsunami vulnerability of building stock. Results in the form of a vulnerability map will be useful for decision makers and local authorities in preventing the community resiliency for tsunami hazards.

Response of a multi-domain continental margin to compression: Study from seismic reflection-refraction and numerical modelling in the Tagus Abyssal Plain

The effects of the Miocene through Present compression in the Tagus Abyssal Plain are mapped using the most up to date available to scientific community multi-channel seismic reflection and refraction data. Correlation of the rift basin fault pattern with the deep crustal structure is presented along seismic line IAM-5. Four structural domains were recognized. In the oceanic realm mild deformation concentrates in Domain I adjacent to the Tore-Madeira Rise. Domain 2 is characterized by the absence of shortening structures, except near the ocean-continent transition (OCT), implying that Miocene deformation did not propagate into the Abyssal Plain, In Domain 3 we distinguish three sub-domains: Sub-domain 3A which coincides with the OCT, Sub-domain 3B which is a highly deformed adjacent continental segment, and Sub-domain 3C. The Miocene tectonic inversion is mainly accommodated in Domain 3 by oceanwards directed thrusting at the ocean-continent transition and continentwards on the continental slope. Domain 4 corresponds to the non-rifted continental margin where only minor extensional and shortening deformation structures are observed. Finite element numerical models address the response of the various domains to the Miocene compression, emphasizing the long-wavelength differential vertical movements and the role of possible rheologic contrasts. The concentration of the Miocene deformation in the transitional zone (TC), which is the addition of Sub-domain 3A and part of 3B, is a result of two main factors: (1) focusing of compression in an already stressed region due to plate curvature and sediment loading; and (2) theological weakening. We estimate that the frictional strength in the TC is reduced in 30% relative to the surrounding regions. A model of compressive deformation propagation by means of horizontal impingement of the middle continental crust rift wedge and horizontal shearing on serpentinized mantle in the oceanic realm is presented. This model is consistent with both the geological interpretation of seismic data and the results of numerical modelling.

Evaluating Tsunami Impact on the Gulf of Cadiz Coast (Northeast Atlantic).

The Gulf of Cadiz coasts are exposed to tsunamis. Emergency planning tools are now taking into account this fact, especially because a series of historical occurrences were strikingly significant, having left strong evidence behind, in the mareographic records, the geological evidence or simply the memory of the populations. The study area is a strip along the Algarve coast, south Portugal, an area known to have been heavily impacted by the 1 November 1755 event. In this study we use two different tsunami scenarios generated by the rupture of two thrust faults identified in the area, corresponding to 8.1-8.3 magnitude earthquakes. Tsunami propagation and inundation computation is performed using a non-linear shallow water code with bottom friction. Numerical modeling results are presented in terms of flow depth and current velocity with maximum values of 7 m and 8 m/s for inundation depth and flow speed, respectively. These results constitute a valuable tool for local authorities, emergency and decision planners to define the priority zones where tsunami mitigation measures must be implemented and to develop tsunami-resilient communities.

Transport properties in microcrystalline silicon solar cells under AM1.5 illumination analysed by two-dimensional numerical simulation

Microcrystalline silicon is a two-phase material. Its composition can be interpreted as a series of grains of crystalline silicon imbedded in an amorphous silicon tissue, with a high concentration of dangling bonds in the transition regions. In this paper, results for the transport properties of a mu c-Si:H p-i-n junction obtained by means of two-dimensional numerical simulation are reported. The role played by the boundary regions between the crystalline grains and the amorphous matrix is taken into account and these regions are treated similar to a heterojunction interface. The device is analysed under AM1.5 illumination and the paper outlines the influence of the local electric field at the grain boundary transition regions on the internal electric configuration of the device and on the transport mechanism within the mu c-Si:H intrinsic layer.

Multiple-choice tests: a tool in assessing knowledge

The purpose of this paper is to analyse if Multiple-Choice Tests may be considered an interesting alternative for assessing knowledge, particularly in the Mathematics area, as opposed to the traditional methods, such as open questions exams. In this sense we illustrate some opinions of the researchers in this area. Often the perception of the people about the construction of this kind of exams is that they are easy to create. But it is not true! Construct well written tests it’s a hard work and needs writing ability from the teachers. Our proposal is analyse the construction difficulties of multiple - choice tests as well some advantages and limitations of this type of tests. We also show the frequent critics and worries, since the beginning of this objective format usage. Finally in this context some examples of Multiple-Choice Items in the Mathematics area are given, and we illustrate as how we can take advantage and improve this kind of tests.

A simulation tool for demand response programs implementation

The design and development of simulation models and tools for Demand Response (DR) programs are becoming more and more important for adequately taking the maximum advantages of DR programs use. Moreover, a more active consumers’ participation in DR programs can help improving the system reliability and decrease or defer the required investments. DemSi, a DR simulator, designed and implemented by the authors of this paper, allows studying DR actions and schemes in distribution networks. It undertakes the technical validation of the solution using realistic network simulation based on PSCAD. DemSi considers the players involved in DR actions, and the results can be analyzed from each specific player point of view.

Adaptive tool for automatic data collection of real electricity markets

The study of electricity markets operation has been gaining an increasing importance in last years, as result of the new challenges that the electricity markets restructuring produced. This restructuring increased the competitiveness of the market, but with it its complexity. The growing complexity and unpredictability of the market’s evolution consequently increases the decision making difficulty. Therefore, the intervenient entities are forced to rethink their behaviour and market strategies. Currently, lots of information concerning electricity markets is available. These data, concerning innumerous regards of electricity markets operation, is accessible free of charge, and it is essential for understanding and suitably modelling electricity markets. This paper proposes a tool which is able to handle, store and dynamically update data. The development of the proposed tool is expected to be of great importance to improve the comprehension of electricity markets and the interactions among the involved entities.

Electric vehicle scenario simulator tool for smart grid operators

This paper presents a simulator for electric vehicles in the context of smart grids and distribution networks. It aims to support network operator´s planning and operations but can be used by other entities for related studies. The paper describes the parameters supported by the current version of the Electric Vehicle Scenario Simulator (EVeSSi) tool and its current algorithm. EVeSSi enables the definition of electric vehicles scenarios on distribution networks using a built-in movement engine. The scenarios created with EVeSSi can be used by external tools (e.g., power flow) for specific analysis, for instance grid impacts. Two scenarios are briefly presented for illustration of the simulator capabilities.

A short-term risk management tool applied to OMEL electricity market using particle swarm optimization

Short-term risk management is highly dependent on long-term contractual decisions previously established; risk aversion factor of the agent and short-term price forecast accuracy. Trying to give answers to that problem, this paper provides a different approach for short-term risk management on electricity markets. Based on long-term contractual decisions and making use of a price range forecast method developed by the authors, the short-term risk management tool presented here has as main concern to find the optimal spot market strategies that a producer should have for a specific day in function of his risk aversion factor, with the objective to maximize the profits and simultaneously to practice the hedge against price market volatility. Due to the complexity of the optimization problem, the authors make use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to find the optimal solution. Results from realistic data, namely from OMEL electricity market, are presented and discussed in detail.

A long-term swarm intelligence hedging tool applied to electricity markets

This paper proposes a swarm intelligence long-term hedging tool to support electricity producers in competitive electricity markets. This tool investigates the long-term hedging opportunities available to electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward) and financial (options) settlement. To find the optimal portfolio the producer risk preference is stated by a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance estimation and the expected return are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecast model, developed by the authors, whose explanation is outside the scope of this paper. The proposed tool makes use of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and its performance has been evaluated by comparing it with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. To validate the risk management tool a case study, using real price historical data for mainland Spanish market, is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.