994 resultados para Normal Accident Theory


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In order to evaluate the capability of H-1 MRS to monitor longitudinal changes in subjects with probable Alzheimer's disease (AD), the temporal stability of the metabolite measures N-acetylaspartate and N-acetylas-partylglutamate (NA), total Creatine (Cr), myo-Inositol (mI), total Choline (Chol), NA/Cr, mI/Cr, Chol/Cr and NA/mI were investigated in a cohort of normal older adults. Only the metabolite measures NA, mi, Cr, NA/Cr, mI/Cr, and NA/mI were found to be stable after a mean interval of 260 days. Relative and absolute metabolite measures from a cohort of patients with probable AD were subsequently compared with data from a sample of normal older adult control subjects, and correlated with mental status and the degree of atrophy in the localized voxel. Concentrations of NA, NA/Cr, and NA/mI were significantly reduced in the AD group with concomitant significant increases in mi and mI/Cr. There were no differences between the two groups in measures of Cr, Chol, or Chol/Cr. Significant correlations between mental status as measured by the Mini-Mental State Examination and NA/mI, mI/Cr and NA were found. These metabolite measures were also significantly correlated with the extent of atrophy (as measured by CSF and GM composition) in the spectroscopy voxel. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc.

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We consider the effect of quantum spin fluctuations on the ground-state properties of the Heisenberg antiferromagnet on an anisotropic triangular lattice using linear spin-wave (LSW) theory. This model should describe the magnetic properties of the insulating phase of the kappa-(BEDT-TTF)(2)X family of superconducting molecular crystals. The ground-state energy, the staggered magnetization, magnon excitation spectra, and spin-wave velocities are computed as functions of the ratio of the antiferromagnetic exchange between the second and first neighbours, J(2)/J(1). We find that near J(2)/J(1) = 0.5, i.e., in the region where the classical spin configuration changes from a Neel-ordered phase to a spiral phase, the staggered magnetization vanishes, suggesting the possibility of a quantum disordered state. in this region, the quantum correction to the magnetization is large but finite. This is in contrast to the case for the frustrated Heisenberg model on a square lattice, for which the quantum correction diverges logarithmically at the transition from the Neel to the collinear phase. For large J(2)/J(1), the model becomes a set of chains with frustrated interchain coupling. For J(2) > 4J(1), the quantum correction to the magnetization, within LSW theory, becomes comparable to the classical magnetization, suggesting the possibility of a quantum disordered state. We show that, in this regime, the quantum fluctuations are much larger than for a set of weakly coupled chains with non-frustrated interchain coupling.

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Methods employing continuum approximation in describing the deformation of layered materials possess a clear advantage over explicit models, However, the conventional implicit models based on the theory of anisotropic continua suffers from certain difficulties associated with interface slip and internal instabilities. These difficulties can be remedied by considering the bending stiffness of the layers. This implies the introduction of moment (couple) stresses and internal rotations, which leads to a Cosserat-type theory. In the present model, the behaviour of the layered material is assumed to be linearly elastic; the interfaces are assumed to be elastic perfectly plastic. Conditions of slip or no slip at the interfaces are detected by a Coulomb criterion with tension cut off at zero normal stress. The theory is valid for large deformation analysis. The model is incorporated into the finite element program AFENA and validated against analytical solutions of elementary buckling problems in layered medium. A problem associated with buckling of the roof and the floor of a rectangular excavation in jointed rock mass under high horizontal in situ stresses is considered as the main application of the theory. Copyright (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Modulational instability in optical Bragg gratings with a quadratic nonlinearity is studied. The electric field in such structures consists of forward and backward propagating components at the fundamental frequency and its second harmonic. Analytic continuous wave (CW) solutions are obtained, and the intricate complexity of their stability, due to the large number of equations and number of free parameters, is revealed. The stability boundaries are rich in structures and often cannot be described by a simple relationship. In most cases, the CW solutions are unstable. However, stable regions are found in the nonlinear Schrodinger equation limit, and also when the grating strength for the second harmonic is stronger than that of the first harmonic. Stable CW solutions usually require a low intensity. The analysis is confirmed by directly simulating the governing equations. The stable regions found have possible applications in second-harmonic generation and dark solitons, while the unstable regions maybe useful in the generation of ultrafast pulse trains at relatively low intensities. [S1063-651X(99)03005-6].

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The interlayer magnetoresistance of layered metals in a tilted magnetic field is calculated for two distinct models for the interlayer transport. The first model involves coherent interlayer transport, and makes use of results of semiclassical or Bloch-Boltzmann transport theory. The second model involves weakly incoherent interlayer transport where the electron is scattered many times within a layer before tunneling into the next layer. The results are relevant to the interpretation of experiments on angular-dependent magnetoresistance oscillations (AMRO) in quasi-one- and quasi-two-dimensional organic metals. We find that the dependence of the magnetoresistance on the direction of the magnetic field is identical for both models except when the field is almost parallel to the layers. An important implication of this result is that a three-dimensional Fermi surface is not necessary for the observation of the Yamaji and Danner oscillations seen in quasi-two- and quasi-one-dimensional metals, respectively. A universal expression is given for the dependence of the resistance at AMRO maxima and minima on the magnetic field and scattering time (and thus the temperature). We point out three distinctive features of coherent interlayer transport: (i) a beat frequency in the magnetic oscillations of quasi-two-dimensional systems, (ii) a peak in the angular-dependent magnetoresistance when the field is sufficiently large and parallel to the layers, and (iii) a crossover from a linear to a quadratic field dependence for the magnetoresistance when the field is parallel to the layers. Properties (i) and (ii) are compared with published experimental data for a range of quasi-two-dimensional organic metals. [S0163-1829(99)02236-5].

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In this paper I offer an 'integrating account' of singular causation, where the term 'integrating' refers to the following program for analysing causation. There are two intuitions about causation, both of which face serious counterexamples when used as the basis for an analysis of causation. The 'process' intuition, which says that causes and effects are linked by concrete processes, runs into trouble with cases of misconnections', where an event which serves to prevent another fails to do so on a particular occasion and yet the two events are linked by causal processes. The chance raising intuition, according to which causes raise the chance of their effects, easily accounts for misconnections but faces the problem of chance lowering causes, a problem easily accounted for by the process approach. The integrating program attempts to provide an analysis of singular causation by synthesising the two insights, so as to solve both problems. In this paper I show that extant versions of the integrating program due to Eells, Lewis, and Menzies fail to account for the chance-lowering counterexample. I offer a new diagnosis of the chance lowering case, and use that as a basis for an integrating account of causation which does solve both cases. In doing so, I accept various assumptions of the integrating program, in particular that there are no other problems with these two approaches. As an example of the process account, I focus on the recent CQ theory of Wesley Salmon (1997).

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In a randomized trial involving 71 postmenopausal osteoporotic women with vertebral compression fractures, radiocalcium absorption studies using the Ca-45 single isotope method (alpha) were performed at baseline and after 8 months of treatment with either continuous combined hormone replacement therapy (HRT, as piperazine estrone sulfate 0.625-0.937mg daily +/- medroxyprogesterone acetate 2.5 mg daily depending on uterine status) or HRT plus calcitriol 0.25 mu g twice daily. A calcium supplement of 600 mg nocte was given to only those women who had a daily calcium intake of less than 1 g per day at baseline, as assessed by recalled dietary intake. There was a significant decrease 0.74 (+/- 0.35 SD) to 0.58 (+/- 0.22), Delta alpha = -0.17 (+/- 0.26), p<0.0005] in alpha at 8 months compared with baseline in the HRT-treated group, but a significant increase [0.68 (+/- 0.31) to 0.84 (+/- 0.27), Delta alpha = +0.16 (+/- 0.30), p<0.003] in the HRT-plus-calcitriol treated patients, resulting in alpha being significantly higher after 8 months in the latter group than in the HRT-only group. Although 72% of the patients had been supplemented with calcium between the first and second studies, separate analyses revealed that the change in calcium intake had not affected the result. Further breakdown of the groups into baseline 'normal' absorbers (alpha greater than or equal to 0.55) and 'malabsorbers' (alpha <0.55) revealed that alpha decreased with HRT treatment only in the normal absorbers, and remained stable in the malabsorbers. Conversely, following HRT plus calcitriol treatment, alpha increased only in the malabsorbers, the normal absorbers in this group remaining unchanged. In conclusion, our data show that HRT, of the type and dose used in this study, did not produce an increase in absorption efficiency; it was in fact associated with a fall. increased absorption efficiency cannot be achieved unless calcitriol is used concurrently, and then only in patients with malabsorption. Calcitriol also had a significant effect in normal absorbers in that it prevented the decline in alpha seen with HRT alone, and thus should be considered in all patients with postmenopausal osteoporosis treated with HRT.

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Recent reports have shown neurodegenerative disorders to be associated with abnormal expansions of a CAG trinucleotide repeat allele at various autosomal loci. While normal chromosomes have 14 to 44 repeats, disease chromosomes may have 60 to 84 repeats. The number of CAG repeats on mutant chromosomes correlates with increasing severity of disease or decreasing age at onset of symptoms. Since we are interested in identifying the many quantitative trait loci (QTL) influencing brain functioning, we examined the possibility that the number of CAG repeats in the normal size range at these loci are relevant to "normal" neural functioning. We have used 150 pairs of adolescent (aged 16 years) twins and their parents to examine allele size at the MJD, SCA1, and DRPLA loci in heterozygous normal individuals. These are part of a large ongoing project using cognitive and physiological measures to investigate the genetie influences on cognition, and an extensive protocol of tests is employed to assess some of the key components of intellectual functioning. This study selected to examine full-scale psychometric IQ (FSIQ) and a measure of information processing (choice reaction time) and working memory (slow wave amplitude). CAG repeat size was determined on an ABI Genescan system following multiplex PCR amplification. Quantitative genetic analyses were performed to determine QTL effects of MJD, SCA1, and DRPLA on cognitive functioning. Analyses are in progress and will be discussed.

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The removal of chemicals in solution by overland how from agricultural land has the potential to be a significant source of chemical loss where chemicals are applied to the soil surface, as in zero tillage and surface-mulched farming systems. Currently, we lack detailed understanding of the transfer mechanism between the soil solution and overland flow, particularly under field conditions. A model of solute transfer from soil solution to overland flow was developed. The model is based on the hypothesis that a solute is initially distributed uniformly throughout the soil pore space in a thin layer at the soil surface. A fundamental assumption of the model is that at the time runoff commences, any solute at the soil surface that could be transported into the soil with the infiltrating water will already have been convected away from the area of potential exchange. Solute remaining at the soil surface is therefore not subject to further infiltration and may be approximated as a layer of tracer on a plane impermeable surface. The model fitted experimental data very well in all but one trial. The model in its present form focuses on the exchange of solute between the soil solution and surface water after the commencement of runoff. Future model development requires the relationship between the mass transfer parameters of the model and the time to runoff: to be defined. This would enable the model to be used for extrapolation beyond the specific experimental results of this study. The close agreement between experimental results and model simulations shows that the simple transfer equation proposed in this study has promise for estimating solute loss to surface runoff. Copyright (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Dendritic cells (DC) are considered to be the major cell type responsible for induction of primary immune responses. While they have been shown to play a critical role in eliciting allosensitization via the direct pathway, there is evidence that maturational and/or activational heterogeneity between DC in different donor organs may be crucial to allograft outcome. Despite such an important perceived role for DC, no accurate estimates of their number in commonly transplanted organs have been reported. Therefore, leukocytes and DC were visualized and enumerated in cryostat sections of normal mouse (C57BL/10, B10.BR, C3H) liver, heart, kidney and pancreas by immunohistochemistry (CD45 and MHC class II staining, respectively). Total immunopositive cell number and MHC class II+ cell density (C57BL/10 mice only) were estimated using established morphometric techniques - the fractionator and disector principles, respectively. Liver contained considerably more leukocytes (similar to 5-20 x 10(6)) and DC (similar to 1-3 x 10(6)) than the other organs examined (pancreas: similar to 0.6 x 10(6) and similar to 0.35 x 10(6): heart: similar to 0.8 x 10(6) and similar to 0.4 x 10(6); kidney similar to 1.2 x 10(6) and 0.65 x 10(6), respectively). In liver, DC comprised a lower proportion of all leukocytes (similar to 15-25%) than in the other parenchymal organs examined (similar to 40-60%). Comparatively, DC density in C57BL/10 mice was heart > kidney > pancreas much greater than liver (similar to 6.6 x 10(6), 5 x 10(6), 4.5 x 10(6) and 1.1 x 10(6) cells/cm(3), respectively). When compared to previously published data on allograft survival, the results indicate that the absolute number of MHC class II+ DC present in a donor organ is a poor predictor of graft outcome. Survival of solid organ allografts is more closely related to the density of the donor DC network within the graft. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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We previously described significant changes in GH-binding protein (GHBP) in pathological human pregnancy. There was a substantial elevation of GHBP in cases of noninsulin-dependent diabetes mellitus and a reduction in insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus. GHBP has the potential to modulate the proportion of free placental GH (PGH) and hence the impact on the maternal GH/insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) axis, fetal growth, and maternal glycemic status. The present study was undertaken to investigate the relationship among glycemia, GHBP, and PGH during pregnancy and to assess the impact of GHBP on the concentration of free PGH. We have extended the analysis of specimens to include measurements of GHBP, PGH, IGF-I, IGF-II, IGF-binding protein-1 (IGFBP-1), IGFSP-2, and IGFBP-3 and have related these to maternal characteristics, fetal growth, and glycemia. The simultaneous measurement of GHBP and PGH has for the first time allowed calculation of the free component of PGH and correlation of the free component to indexes of fetal growth and other endocrine markers. PGH, free PGH, IGF-I, and IGF-II were substantially decreased in IUGR at 28-30 weeks gestation (K28) and 36-38 weeks gestation (K36). The mean concentration (+/-SEM) of total PGH increased significantly from K28 to K36 (30.0 +/- 2.2 to 50.7 +/- 6.2 ng/mL; n = 40), as did the concentration of free PGH (23.4 +/- 2.3 to 43.7 +/- 6.0 ng/mL; n = 38). The mean percentage of free PGH was significantly less in IUGR than in normal subjects (67% vs. 79%; P < 0.01). Macrosomia was associated with an increase in these parameters that did not reach statistical significance. Multiple regression analysis revealed that PGH/IGF-I and IGFBP-5 account for 40% of the variance in birth weight. IGFBP-3 showed a significant correlation with IGF-I, IGF-II, and free and total PGK at K28 and K36. Noninsulin-dependent diabetes mellitus patients had a lower mean percentage of free PGH (65%; P < 0.01), and insulin-dependent diabetics had a higher mean percentage of free PGH (87%; P < 0.01) than normal subjects. Mean postprandial glucose at K28 correlated positively with PGH and free PGH (consistent with the hyperglycemic action of GH). GHBP correlated negatively with both postprandial and fasting glucose. Although GHBP correlated negatively with PGH (r = -0.52; P

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This study was designed to test the utility of a revised theory of planned behavior in the prediction of intentions to volunteer among older people. Such a perspective allowed for the consideration of a broader range of social and contextual factors than has been examined in previous research on volunteer decision making among older people. The article reports the findings from a study that investigated volunteer intentions and behavior in a random sample of older people aged 65 to 74 years living in an Australian capital city. Results showed that, as predicted by the revised theory of planned behavior, intention to volunteer predicted subsequent reported volunteer behavior. Intention was, in turn, predicted by social norms (both subjective and behavioral), perceived behavioral control, and moral obligation, with the effect of attitude being mediated through moral obligation.

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Normal mixture models are being increasingly used to model the distributions of a wide variety of random phenomena and to cluster sets of continuous multivariate data. However, for a set of data containing a group or groups of observations with longer than normal tails or atypical observations, the use of normal components may unduly affect the fit of the mixture model. In this paper, we consider a more robust approach by modelling the data by a mixture of t distributions. The use of the ECM algorithm to fit this t mixture model is described and examples of its use are given in the context of clustering multivariate data in the presence of atypical observations in the form of background noise.