Time patterns in UK demand for alcohol and tobacco: an application of the EM algorithm

Capturing the pattern of structural change is a relevant task in applied demand analysis, as consumer preferences may vary significantly over time. Filtering and smoothing techniques have recently played an increasingly relevant role. A dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System with random walk parameters is estimated in order to detect modifications in consumer habits and preferences, as well as changes in the behavioural response to prices and income. Systemwise estimation, consistent with the underlying constraints from economic theory, is achieved through the EM algorithm. The proposed model is applied to UK aggregate consumption of alcohol and tobacco, using quarterly data from 1963 to 2003. Increased alcohol consumption is explained by a preference shift, addictive behaviour and a lower price elasticity. The dynamic and time-varying specification is consistent with the theoretical requirements imposed at each sample point. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A structural time series approach to modelling multiple and resurgent meat scares in Italy

This paper exploits a structural time series approach to model the time pattern of multiple and resurgent food scares and their direct and cross-product impacts on consumer response. A structural time series Almost Ideal Demand System (STS-AIDS) is embedded in a vector error correction framework to allow for dynamic effects (VEC-STS-AIDS). Italian aggregate household data on meat demand is used to assess the time-varying impact of a resurgent BSE crisis (1996 and 2000) and the 1999 Dioxin crisis. The VEC-STS-AIDS model monitors the short-run impacts and performs satisfactorily in terms of residuals diagnostics, overcoming the major problems encountered by the customary vector error correction approach.

Consumer welfare and the loss induced by withholding information: The case of BSE in Italy

The paper develops a measure of consumer welfare losses associated with withholding it formation about a possible link between BSE and vCJD. The Cost of Ignorance (COI) is measured by comparing the utility of the informed choice with the utility of the uninformed choice, under conditions of improved information. Unlike previous work that is largely based on a single equation demand model, the measure is obtained retrieving a cost,function from a dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System. The estimated perceived loss for Italian consumers due to delayed information ranges from 12 percent to 54 percent of total meat expenditure, depending on the month assumed to embody correct beliefs about the safety level of beef.

Nucleolin is regulated both at the level of transcription and translation

Nucleolin is a multi-functional protein that is located to the nucleolus. In tissue Culture cells, the stability of nucleolin is related to the proliferation status of the cell. During development, rat cardiomyocytes proliferate actively with increases in the mass of the heart being due to both hyperplasia and hypertrophy. The timing of this shift in the phenotype of the myocyte from one capable of undergoing hyperplasia to one that can grow only by hypertrophy occurs within 4 days of post-natal development. Thus, cardiomyocytes are an ideal model system in which to study the regulation of nucleolin during growth in vivo. Using Western blot and quantitative RT-PCR (TaqMan) we found that the amount of nucleolin is regulated both at the level of transcription and translation during the development of the cardiomyocyte. However, in cells which had exited the cell cycle and were subsequently given a hypertrophic stimulus, nucleolin was regulated post-transcriptionally. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Truth in complex adaptive systems models should be based on truth by constructive verification

It is argued that the truth status of emergent properties of complex adaptive systems models should be based on an epistemology of proof by constructive verification and therefore on the ontological axioms of a non-realist logical system such as constructivism or intuitionism. ‘Emergent’ properties of complex adaptive systems (CAS) models create particular epistemological and ontological challenges. These challenges bear directly on current debates in the philosophy of mathematics and in theoretical computer science. CAS research, with its emphasis on computer simulation, is heavily reliant on models which explore the entailments of Formal Axiomatic Systems (FAS). The incompleteness results of Gödel, the incomputability results of Turing, and the Algorithmic Information Theory results of Chaitin, undermine a realist (platonic) truth model of emergent properties. These same findings support the hegemony of epistemology over ontology and point to alternative truth models such as intuitionism, constructivism and quasi-empiricism.

Numerical prediction of atmospheric blocking - A case study

One of the fundamental questions in dynamical meteorology, and one of the basic objectives of GARP, is to determine the predictability of the atmosphere. In the early planning stage and preparation for GARP a number of theoretical and numerical studies were undertaken, indicating that there existed an inherent unpredictability in the atmosphere which even with the most ideal observing system would limit useful weather forecasting to 2-3 weeks.

The effects of a soft drink tax in the UK

The majority of the UK population is either overweight or obese. Health economists, nutritionists and doctors are calling for the UK to follow the example of other European countries and introduce a tax on soft drinks as a result of the perception that high intakes contribute to diet-related disease. We use a demand model estimated with household-level data on beverage purchases in the UK to investigate the effects of a tax on soft drink consumption. The model is a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System, and censoring is handled by applying a double hurdle. Separate models are estimated for low, moderate and high consumers to allow for a differential impact on consumption between these groups. Applying different hypothetical tax rates, we conclude that understanding the nature of substitute/complement relationships is crucial in designing an effective policy as these relationships differ between consumers depending on their consumption level. The overall impact of a soft drink tax on calorie consumption is likely to be small.

Playing Kant at the Court of King Arthur

This article contrasts the sense in which those whom Bernard Williams called ‘political realists’ and John Rawls are committed to the idea that political philosophy has to be distinctively political. Distinguishing the realist critique of political moralism from debates over ideal and non-ideal theory, it is argued that Rawls is more realist than many realists realise, and that realists can learn more about how to make a distinctively political vision of how our life together should be organised from his theorising, although it also points to a worrying tendency among Rawlsians to reach for inappropriately moralised arguments. G. A. Cohen’s advocacy of socialism and the second season of HBO’s The Wire are used as examples to illustrate these points.

PHB Biosynthesis in Catabolite Repression Mutant of Burkholderia sacchari

Due to the effect of catabolite repression, sugar mixtures cannot be metabolized in a rapid and efficient way implicating in lower productivity in bioprocesses using lignocellulosic hydrolysates. In gram-negative bacteria, this mechanism is mediated by the phosphotransferase system (PTS), which concomitantly internalizes and phosphorylates sugars. In this study, we isolated a UV mutant of Burkholderia sacchari, called LFM828, which transports hexoses and pentoses by a non-PTS uptake system. This mutant presented released glucose catabolite repression over the pentoses. In mixtures of glucose, xylose, and arabinose, specific growth rates and the specific sugar consumption rates were, respectively, 10 and 23% higher in LFM828, resulting in a reduced time to exhaust all sugars in the medium. However, in polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB) biosynthesis experiments it was necessary the supplementation of yeast extract to maintain higher values of growth rate and sugar consumption rate. The deficient growth in mineral medium was partially recovered by replacing the ammonium nitrogen source by glutamate. It was demonstrated that the ammonium metabolism is not defective in LFM828, differently from ammonium, glutamate can also be used as carbon and energy allowing an improvement on the carbohydrates utilization for PHB production in LFM828. In contrast, higher rates of ammonia consumption and CO(2) production in LFM828 indicate altered fluxes through the central metabolism in LFM828 and the parental. In conclusion, PTS plays an important role in cell physiology and the elimination of its components has a significant impact on catabolite repression, carbon flux distribution, and PHB biosynthesis in B. sacchari.

Fermion perturbations in string theory black holes

In this paper we study fermion perturbations in four-dimensional black holes of string theory, obtained either from a non-extreme configuration of three intersecting five-branes with a boost along the common string or from a non-extreme intersecting system of two two-branes and two five-branes. The Dirac equation for the massless neutrino field, after conformal re-scaling of the metric, is written as a wave equation suitable to study the time evolution of the perturbation. We perform a numerical integration of the evolution equation, and with the aid of Prony fitting of the time-domain profile, we calculate the complex frequencies that dominate the quasinormal ringing stage, and also determine these quantities by the semi-analytical sixth-order WKB method. We also find numerically the decay factor of fermion fields at very late times, and show that the falloff is identical to those showing for massless fields in other four-dimensional black hole spacetimes.

New and improved results for packing identical unitary radius circles within triangles, rectangles and strips

The focus of study in this paper is the class of packing problems. More specifically, it deals with the placement of a set of N circular items of unitary radius inside an object with the aim of minimizing its dimensions. Differently shaped containers are considered, namely circles, squares, rectangles, strips and triangles. By means of the resolution of non-linear equations systems through the Newton-Raphson method, the herein presented algorithm succeeds in improving the accuracy of previous results attained by continuous optimization approaches up to numerical machine precision. The computer implementation and the data sets are available at http://www.ime.usp.br/similar to egbirgin/packing/. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd, All rights reserved.

Värdefull litteratur : Fyra gymnasielärare om samhällsuppdragets etik i förhållande till litteraturen i klassrummet

The ethical aspects of the Swedish Curriculum for the non-compulsory school system, Lpf94, will form the basis of the research in this essay. The ethical aspects constitute fundamental values and goals as well as common tasks that must be carried out by every teacher. Since the school debate focuses a lot on this perspective, which is often mentioned together with the words problematic and contradictory, it will consequently also be the focus of this essay. Here these features are treated in relation to literature in all its forms used by teachers in class, which also represents a part of the school debate. Together ethics and literature form a perspective that lacks research. The goal is to investigate the ethical awareness of teachers in relation to the literature, and find out which ethical decisions are made by teachers and in what ways the ethical aspects of the curriculum is fulfilled. A qualitative method has been used in order to gain results: four upper secondary school teachers/senior high school teachers have been interviewed. The results are presented in interview transcripts which have been analyzed and interpreted in the light of recent studies and research and pedagogical-didactical literature. Accordingly I have been able to draw the conclusions that the ethical features in teaching is not explicit and that there seldom seems to be any conscious ethical reflections in relation to the literature. The ethical aspects are rather invisible and unconscious. However, it is clear that the interviews raise the awareness of the ethical perspective and thus emphasize the growing and developing function of the dialogue. Finally the results have been interpreted from the point of view of the ethical tasks of the teacher in order to make the ethics visible.I detta examensarbete ligger fokus på de etiska aspekterna av samhällsuppdraget i förhållande till den litteratur som lärare använder sig av i klassrumsundervisningen. Eftersom en stor del av skoldebatten handlar om samhällsuppdraget och dess värdegrund utgör också detta perspektiv utgångspunkten för denna undersökning. Målet är att undersöka vilka etiska avvägningar lärare gör i valet av litteratur och på vilket sätt samhällsuppdragets etik blir synlig i lärares arbete. Därmed framkommer också till viss del i vilken omfattning värdegrundsarbetet sker. Genom en kvalitativ undersökningsmetod i form av samtal har fyra gymnasielärare intervjuats. Erhållna resultat har presenterats i form av intervjutranskript som analyserats och tolkats med hjälp av aktuell forskning och pedagogisk-didaktisk litteratur. De slutsatser som kan dras utifrån resultaten är att etiken i lärarnas arbete inte är explicit och att det oftast inte finns en medveten etisk reflektion utifrån litteraturen. Etiken är snarare osynlig och tämligen omedveten. Dock medvetandegörs den under samtalen vilket framhåller dialogens betydelse för utveckling. Vidare framkommer att etiken aldrig är ett mål i sig, utan fungerar mer som medel för att nå andra mål i klassrummet. Slutligen, för att synliggöra etiken, har resultaten tolkats utifrån de etiska krav i samhällsuppdraget som ställs på lärare.

Entre o oficial e o legítimo: o sub-sistema não-institucional de atenção a saúde em São Paulo

Investiga os determinantes para a existência de um sub-sistema nao institucional de ateção à saúde compondo, juntamente com a medicina oficial, o sistema de saúde das regiões urbanas. Discute criticamente o enfoque dado pela teoria da modernização, segundo o qual, ocorreria o desaparecimento das práticas ditas tradicionais com o advento dos processos de urbanização e industrialização. Para esta discussão, destaca a importâcia da análise do fator cultural nas representações de saúde e doença dos usuários, valendo-se de contribuições teóricas de cunho historico-cultural

O mercado de frios no Brasil : uma estimação da demanda a partir de um modelo em três estágios

O trabalho estima um sistema de equações de demanda para os produtos do mercado de frios no Brasil, utilizando o modelo Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) em três estágios. O passo seguinte à estimação das equações de demanda é a avaliação das elasticidades própria e cruzada obtidas, verificando se estas são condizentes com as previsões da teoria econômica, o que permitiria a utilização destas para simular os efeitos de uma fusão entre as empresas Sadia e Perdigão no mercado de frios. Apenas os resultados dos estágios superior e intermediário – no qual são estimadas as elasticidades relativas aos diferentes tipos de frios, como presunto e salame – estão de acordo com o que seria previsto pela teoria. Já no estágio inferior, onde se estimam as elasticidades relativas às diferentes marcas para cada tipo de frio, isso não acontece. Uma provável causa dessa inconsistência nos resultados está relacionada ao problema de endogeneidade inerente à estimação de equações de demanda com dados agregados, uma vez que, para o estágio inferior, não foi possível obter variáveis instrumentais suficientemente correlacionadas com as variáveis endógenas. Dados os resultados insatisfatórios para o estágio inferior, a simulação de fusão não foi feita. O trabalho apenas discute as inevitáveis inconsistências que ocorreriam na simulação de fusão em decorrência do uso de resultados incoerentes do ponto de vista teórico.

Nesting biology of the fungus growing ants Mycetarotes Emery (Attini, Formicidae)

Fungus-growing ants of the genus Mycetarotes are among the least studied in the tribe Attini. This report documents nest architecture and worker population numbers for 19 nests of M. parallelus and 5 nests of M. acutus, including the first such report for M. acutus. This new information is integrated with the scant biological information reported on Mycetarotes to date. The resulting picture of Mycetarotes life history, as well as the relative ease with which large numbers of nests can be collected and observed in the field, suggest that Mycetarotes (particularly M. parallelus) is an ideal model system for the study of coevolution of lower-attine ants and their cultivated fungi.