The forward- and the equity-premium puzzles: two symptoms of the same illness?

In this paper we revisit the relationship between the equity and the forward premium puzzles. We construct return-based stochastic discount factors under very mild assumptions and check whether they price correctly the equity and the foreign currency risk premia. We avoid log-linearizations by using moments restrictions associated with euler equations to test the capacity of our return-based stochastic discount factors to price returns on the relevant assets. Our main finding is that a pricing kernel constructed only using information on American domestic assets accounts for both domestic and international stylized facts that escape consumption based models. In particular, we fail to reject the null hypothesis that the foreign currency risk premium has zero price when the instrument is the own current value of the forward premium.

Transtornos de aprendizagem : aspectos neuropsicossociais de uma população encaminhada à Secretaria Municipal da Saúde da cidade de São Leopoldo

Foram estudados 125 pacientes em idade escolar que procuraram o Posto de Atendimento Médico Especializado (PAME) da cidade de São Leopoldo, Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil, nos anos de 2003 e 2004, encaminhados pela escola, pelo pediatra ou Conselho Tutelar, por estarem apresentando dificuldades na escolarização. Realizaram-se entrevistas com os pais ou responsáveis, exame neurológico tradicional, exame neurológico evolutivo, eletroencefalograma em sono e vigília em todas as crianças e tomografia cerebral e ressonância magnética, quando necessário. Foram estudados aspectos neuropsicossociais dos indivíduos e de suas respectivas famílias. Encontraram-se famílias comprometidas em sua história prévia e atual: 29,30% com dificuldades escolares, 27,20% com doenças psiquiátricas, 26,10% com epilepsia, 21,70% com alcoolismo e 10,90% com deficiência mental. As comorbidades tiveram um papel relevante no desempenho escolar: 50,50% com hiperatividade, 17,20% com distúrbio de conduta e 17,20% com problemas emocionais (listados como queixa principal por ocasião do encaminhamento para a triagem).

The forward- and the equity-premium puzzles: two symptoms of the same illness?

We build a pricing kernel using only US domestic assets data and check whether it accounts for foreign markets stylized facts that escape consumption based models. By interpreting our stochastic discount factor as the projection of a pricing kernel from a fully specified model in the space of returns, our results indicate that a model that accounts for the behavior of domestic assets goes a long way toward accounting for the behavior of foreign assets. We address predictability issues associated with the forward premium puzzle by: i) using instruments that are known to forecast excess returns in the moments restrictions associated with Euler equations, and; ii) by pricing Lustig and Verdelhan (2007)'s foreign currency portfolios. Our results indicate that the relevant state variables that explain foreign-currency market asset prices are also the driving forces behind U.S. domestic assets behavior.

The forward- and the equity-premium puzzles: two symptoms of the same illness?

Using information on US domestic financial data only, we build a stochastic discount factor—SDF— and check whether it accounts for foreign markets stylized facts that escape consumption based models. By interpreting our SDF as the projection of a pricing kernel from a fully specified model in the space of returns, our results indicate that a model that accounts for the behavior of domestic assets goes a long way toward accounting for the behavior of foreign assets prices. We address predictability issues associated with the forward premium puzzle by: i) using instruments that are known to forecast excess returns in the moments restrictions associated with Euler equations, and; ii) by pricing Lustig and Verdelhan (2007)’s foreign currency portfolios. Our results indicate that the relevant state variables that explain foreign-currency market asset prices are also the driving forces behind U.S. domestic assets behavior.

The forward- and the equity-premium puzzles: two symptoms of the same illness?

Using information on US domestic financial data only, we build a stochastic discount factor—SDF— and check whether it accounts for foreign markets stylized facts that escape consumption based models. By interpreting our SDF as the projection of a pricing kernel from a fully specified model in the space of returns, our results indicate that a model that accounts for the behavior of domestic assets goes a long way toward accounting for the behavior of foreign assets prices. We address predictability issues associated with the forward premium puzzle by: i) using instruments that are known to forecast excess returns in the moments restrictions associated with Euler equations, and; ii) by comparing this out-of-sample results with the one obtained performing an in-sample exercise, where the return-based SDF captures sources of risk of a representative set of developed and emerging economies government bonds. Our results indicate that the relevant state variables that explain foreign-currency market asset prices are also the driving forces behind U.S. domestic assets behavior.

The forward and the equity-premium puzzles: a straightforward test of whether they are two symptoms of the same illness

We build a stochastic discount factor—SDF— using information on US domestic financial data only, and provide evidence that it accounts for foreign markets stylized facts that escape SDF’s generated by consumption based models. By interpreting our SDF as the projection of the pricing kernel from a fully specified model in the space of returns, our results indicate that a model that accounts for the behavior of domestic assets goes a long way toward accounting for the behavior of foreign assets prices. In our tests, we address predictability, a defining feature of the Forward Premium Puzzle—FPP— by using instruments that are known to forecast excess returns in the moments restrictions associated with Euler equations both in the equity and the foreign markets.

A note on the forward and the equity-premium puzzles: two symptoms of the same illness?

We build a stochastic discount factor—SDF— using information on US domestic financial data only, and provide evidence that it accounts for foreign markets stylized facts that escape SDF’s generated by consumption based models. By interpreting our SDF as the projection of the pricing kernel from a fully specified model in the space of returns, our results indicate that a model that accounts for the behavior of domestic assets goes a long way toward accounting for the behavior of foreign assets prices. In our tests, we address predictability, a defining feature of the Forward Premium Puzzle—FPP— by using instruments that are known to forecast excess returns in the moments restrictions associated with Euler equations both in the equity and the foreign markets.

The forward and the equity premium puzzles: two symptoms of the same illness?

The Forward Premium Puzzle (FPP) is how the empirical observation of a negative relation between future changes in the spot rates and the forward premium is known. Modeling this forward bias as a risk premium and under weak assumptions on the behavior of the pricing kernel, we characterize the potential bias that is present in the regressions where the FPP is observed and we identify the necessary and sufficient conditions that the pricing kernel has to satisfy to account for the predictability of exchange rate movements. Next, we estimate the pricing kernel applying two methods: i) one, du.e to Araújo et aI. (2005), that exploits the fact that the pricing kernel is a serial correlation common feature of asset prices, and ii) a traditional principal component analysis used as a procedure 1;0 generate a statistical factor modeI. Then, using on the sample and out of the sample exercises, we are able to show that the same kernel that explains the Equity Premi um Puzzle (EPP) accounts for the FPP in all our data sets. This suggests that the quest for an economic mo deI that generates a pricing kernel which solves the EPP may double its prize by simultaneously accounting for the FPP.

Da negatividade a positividade: possível trânsito de saberes, práticas e representações sociais sobre o estigma da hanseníase

Leprosy is a chronic infectious-contagious disease, caused by Mycobacterium leprae, manifested by dermatological and neurological signs and symptoms and has great disabling power. It was marked by a strong stigma throughout its history, since its bearers represented a threat, target of fear and social contempt. Currently, leprosy has treatment and cure, and the need to separate the diseased from family and social environment is no more necessary. However, patients still suffer prejudice and discrimination. This study aimed to understand the social representations of leprosy that interfere modifying mental health of the patient with leprosy in relation to stigma and prejudice. This is a descriptive and exploratory study, with qualitative approach, which involved 22 users of the Special Care Clinic in Infectious Diseases at the Hospital Giselda Trigueiro, located in Natal / RN. They were in use of multidrug therapy in the period of data collection, were of both sexes, aged between 16 and 80 years of age and classified as paucibacillary or multibacillary. The study was approved by the UFRN Ethics in Research Committee. Data collection was performed by filling the questionnaire identification and then for conducting the semi-structured interview, which was recorded. After the end of data collection, there was the construction of tables and graphs, using the Microsoft Excel Start 2010 for proper characterization of the research subjects; and for the treatment of the data obtained from the interviews, was used the Content Analysis and based on the Theory of Social Representations. The subjects studied were mostly male (64%), married or in a stable relationship (68%), concentrated in the age group 50-60 years (36%) and 28-38 years (23%), had at most elementary education (65%) and were low-income (59%). Of the total respondents, 64% were classified as multibacillary, with predominantly dimorfous form, and 50% had disability grade I or II, with different periods of diagnosis. The reports originate two categories: 1. The negative meanings of illness and leprosy; and 2. The positive meanings of illness in leprosy, which were subsequently subdivided into subcategories. Thus, it was found that in the group studied, the social representation of leprosy experiences a moment of transition, as regards the understanding of the disease and its way of experiencing the disease process. Such representation is anchored in the quality of information on the disease of its bearers and aimed at an attempt to face the illness of leprosy as a "normal process". It was found in this study that the transition is due to the work of combating stigma and consequences of leprosy, which is able to gradually transform reality, both regarding the team work of reference, and in relation to a broader character, of actions of health education, which favors overcoming of psychosocial disabilities

Estudo multicêntrico sobre escalas para grau de comprometimento em disfagia orofaríngea neurogênica

OBJETIVO: Analisar a concordância entre distintas escalas para grau de comprometimento em disfagia orofaríngea neurogênica. MÉTODOS: Foi realizado estudo clínico transversal. Participaram 200 indivíduos com disfagia orofaríngea neurogênica, 108 do gênero masculino e 92 do gênero feminino, com idades de 3 meses a 91 anos. Foram aplicadas quatro escalas para classificar o grau de comprometimento da disfagia orofaríngea, sendo duas escalas clínicas e duas videofluoroscópicas. Análises estatísticas foram realizadas para verificar a concordância entre as escalas clínicas e objetivas. RESULTADOS: Os resultados mostraram concordância muito boa entre as escalas clínicas estudadas (Kappa=0,92) e concordância moderada entre as escalas objetivas (Kappa=0,52). CONCLUSÃO: Embora a concordância entre as escalas clínicas tenha sido muito boa e entre as escalas objetivas tenha sido moderada, ainda é necessária ampla discussão e possível revisão dos parâmetros que definem o grau de comprometimento da disfagia orofaríngea em pacientes neurológicos.

Cerebral ischemia as initial neurological manifestation of atrial myxoma: case report

Infartos cerebrais de etiologia cardíaca são observados em cerca de 20% dos pacientes com acidente vascular cerebral isquêmico. Infarto cerebral ocorre como manifestação clínica inicial em um terço dos casos de mixoma atrial. Embora quase metade dos pacientes com mixoma atrial apresente alteração ao exame neurológico, infarto cerebral não hemorrágico é visto na tomografia computadorizada em praticamente todos os casos. Os autores apresentam o caso de uma paciente, cuja primeira manifestação clínica do mixoma atrial foi um acidente vascular cerebral isquêmico e chamam a atenção para a possibilidade de infarto cerebral silencioso em pacientes portadores de mixoma atrial.

Genotyping of Toxoplasma gondii strains isolated from dogs with neurological signs

From 111 dogs with neurological signs admitted in this research in a 22-month period, brain samples of 34 animals were inoculated in mice in order to isolate Toxoplasma gondii. From these 34 dogs, 9 strains of T. gondii were isolated and the genetic characterization performed by restriction analysis (RFLP) of the SAG-2 gene. RFLP analysis showed that four of them were classified as Type I, and five as Type Ill. The present report is the first description of genotyping of T. gondii isolated from brain samples of naturally infected dogs, in Brazil. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Canine distemper virus and Toxoplasma gondii co-infection in dogs with neurological signs

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Detection and molecular analysis of Toxoplasma gondii and Neospora caninum from dogs with neurological disorders

Introduction: Toxoplasma gondii and Neospora caninum are related Apicomplexa parasites responsible for systemic diseases in many species of animals, including dogs. Methods: This study aimed to determine the occurrence of T. gondii and N. caninum infections in 50 dogs with neurological signs that were admitted to the Veterinary Hospital of Universidade Estadual Paulista, City of Botucatu, Brazil. All animals were screened for antibodies using an immunofluorescent antibody test for both parasites. Tissues of positive animals were bioassayed in mice (T. gondii) and gerbils (N. caninum), and DNA was analyzed using the polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Positive samples for T. gondii by PCR were typed using restriction fragment length polymorphism-PCR for 11 markers: SAG1, SAG2 (5'-3'-SAG2 and alt.SAG2), SAG3, Btub, GRA6, L358, c22-8, c29-6, PK1 and Apico, and CS3 marker for virulence analysis. Results: Specific antibodies were detected in 11/50 (22%; 95% confidence interval (CI95%), 12.8-35.3%) animals for T. gondii and 7/50 (14%; CI95%, 7.02-26.3%) for N. caninum. In the bioassay and PCR, 7/11 (63.6%; CI95%, 34.9-84.8%) samples were positive for T. gondii and 3/7 (42.9%; CI95% I, 15.7-75.5%) samples were positive for N. caninum. Three different genotypes were identified, but only 1 was unique. Conclusions: These data confirm the presence of T. gondii and N. caninum in dogs from Brazil, indicating the importance of this host as a sentinel of T. gondii for human beings, and the genotypic variation of this parasite in Brazil.