Machine prognostics based on health state probability estimation

The ability to accurately predict the remaining useful life of machine components is critical for machine continuous operation and can also improve productivity and enhance system’s safety. In condition-based maintenance (CBM), maintenance is performed based on information collected through condition monitoring and assessment of the machine health. Effective diagnostics and prognostics are important aspects of CBM for maintenance engineers to schedule a repair and to acquire replacement components before the components actually fail. Although a variety of prognostic methodologies have been reported recently, their application in industry is still relatively new and mostly focused on the prediction of specific component degradations. Furthermore, they required significant and sufficient number of fault indicators to accurately prognose the component faults. Hence, sufficient usage of health indicators in prognostics for the effective interpretation of machine degradation process is still required. Major challenges for accurate longterm prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) still remain to be addressed. Therefore, continuous development and improvement of a machine health management system and accurate long-term prediction of machine remnant life is required in real industry application. This thesis presents an integrated diagnostics and prognostics framework based on health state probability estimation for accurate and long-term prediction of machine remnant life. In the proposed model, prior empirical (historical) knowledge is embedded in the integrated diagnostics and prognostics system for classification of impending faults in machine system and accurate probability estimation of discrete degradation stages (health states). The methodology assumes that machine degradation consists of a series of degraded states (health states) which effectively represent the dynamic and stochastic process of machine failure. The estimation of discrete health state probability for the prediction of machine remnant life is performed using the ability of classification algorithms. To employ the appropriate classifier for health state probability estimation in the proposed model, comparative intelligent diagnostic tests were conducted using five different classifiers applied to the progressive fault data of three different faults in a high pressure liquefied natural gas (HP-LNG) pump. As a result of this comparison study, SVMs were employed in heath state probability estimation for the prediction of machine failure in this research. The proposed prognostic methodology has been successfully tested and validated using a number of case studies from simulation tests to real industry applications. The results from two actual failure case studies using simulations and experiments indicate that accurate estimation of health states is achievable and the proposed method provides accurate long-term prediction of machine remnant life. In addition, the results of experimental tests show that the proposed model has the capability of providing early warning of abnormal machine operating conditions by identifying the transitional states of machine fault conditions. Finally, the proposed prognostic model is validated through two industrial case studies. The optimal number of health states which can minimise the model training error without significant decrease of prediction accuracy was also examined through several health states of bearing failure. The results were very encouraging and show that the proposed prognostic model based on health state probability estimation has the potential to be used as a generic and scalable asset health estimation tool in industrial machinery.

Coal seam gas waters - their geochemical signature and potential environmental implications

Coal Seam Gas (CSG) is a form of natural gas (mainly methane) sorbed in underground coal beds. To mine this gas, wells are drilled directly into an underground coal seam and groundwater (CSG water) is pumped out to the surface. This lowers the downhole piezometric pressure and enables gas desporption from the coal matrix. In the United States, this gas has been extracted commercially since the 1980s. The economic success of US CSG projects has inspired exploration and development in Australia and New Zealand. In Australia, Queensland’s Bowen and Surat basins have been the subject of increased CSG development over the last decade. CSG growth in other Australian basins has not matured to the same level but exploration and development are taking place at an accelerated pace in the Sydney Basin (Illawarra and the Hunter Valley, NSW) and in the Gunnedah Basin. Similarly, CSG exploration in New Zealand has focused in the Waikato region (Maramarua and Huntly), in the West Coast region (Buller, Reefton, and Greymouth), and in Southland (Kaitangata, Mataura, and Ohai). Figure 1 shows a Shcoeller diagram with CSG samples from selected basins in Australia, New Zealand, and the USA. CSG water from all of these basins exhibit the same geochemical signature – low calcium, low magnesium, high bicarbonate, low sulphate and, sometimes, high chloride. This water quality is a direct result of specific biological and geological processes that have taken part in the formation of CSG. In general, these processes include the weathering of rocks (carbonates, dolomite, and halite), cation exchange with clays (responsible for enhanced sodium and depleted calcium and magnesium), and biogenic processes (accounting for the presence of high bicarbonate concentrations). The salinity of CSG waters tends to be brackish (TDS < 30000 mg/l) with a fairly neutral pH. These particular characteristics need to be taken into consideration when assessing water management and disposal alternatives. Environmental issues associated with CSG water disposal have been prominent in developed basins such as the Powder River Basin (PRB) in the United States. When disposed on the land or used for irrigation, water having a high dissolved salts content may reduce water availability to crops thus affecting crop yield. In addition, the high sodium, low calcium and low magnesium concentrations increase the potential to disperse soils and significantly reduce the water infiltration rate. Therefore, CSG waters need to be properly characterised, treated, and disposed to safeguard the environment without compromising other natural resources.

Environmental incidents in a developing country and corporate environmental disclosures : a study of a multinational gas company

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the environmental disclosure initiatives of Niko Resources Ltd – a Canada-based multinational oil and gas company – following the two major environmental blowouts at a gas field in Bangladesh in 2005. As part of the examination, the authors particularly focus on whether Niko's disclosure strategy was associated with public concern pertaining to the blowouts. Design/methodology/approach – The authors reviewed news articles about Niko's environmental incidents in Bangladesh and Niko's communication media, including annual reports, press releases and stand-alone social responsibility report over the period 2004-2007, to understand whether news media attention as proxy for public concern has an impact on Niko's disclosure practices in relation to the affected local community in Bangladesh. Findings – The findings show that Niko did not provide any non-financial environmental information within its annual reports and press releases as a part of its responsibility to the local community which was affected by the blowouts, but it did produce a stand-alone report to address the issue. However, financial environmental disclosures, such as the environmental contingent liability disclosure, were adequately provided through annual reports to meet the regulatory requirements concerning environmental persecutions. The findings also suggest that Niko's non-financial disclosure within a stand-alone report was associated with the public pressures as measured by negative media coverage towards the Niko blowouts. Research limitations/implications – This paper concludes that the motive for Niko's non-financial environmental disclosure, via a stand-alone report, reflected survival considerations: the company's reaction did not suggest any real attempt to hold broader accountability for its activities in a developing country.

CO2 capture and gas separation on boron carbon nanotubes

Concern about the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and its impact on the environment has led to increasing attention directed toward finding advanced materials and technologies suited for efficient CO2 capture, storage and purification of clean-burning natural gas. In this letter, we have performed comprehensive theoretical investigation of CO2, N2, CH4 and H2 adsorption on B2CNTs. Our study shows that CO2 molecules can form strong interactions with B2CNTs with different charge states. However, N2, CH4 and H2 can only form very weak interactions with B2CNTs. Therefore, the study demonstrates B2CNTs could sever as promising materials for CO2 capture and gas separation.

Taking cues from outer space : the E&P sector can learn much about asset maintenance from the space and satellite industry

The E&P sector can learn much about asset maintenance from the space and satellite industry. Practitioners from both the upstream oil and gas industry and the space and satellite sector have repeatedly noted several striking similarities between the two industries over the years, which have in turn resulted in many direct comparisons in the media and industry press. The similarities between the two industries have even resulted in a modest amount of cross-pollinating between the respective supply chains. Because the operating conditions of both industries are so extreme, some oil and gas equipment vendors have occasionally sourced motors and other parts from aerospace contractors. Also, satellites are now being used to assess oil fires, detect subsidence in oil fields, measure oil spills, collect and transmit operational data from oil and gas fields, and monitor the movement of icebergs that might potentially collide with offshore oil and gas installations.

Assessment of Geogenic Contaminants in Water Co-Produced with Coal Seam Gas Extraction in Queensland, Australia : Implications for Human Health Risk

Organic compounds in Australian coal seam gas produced water (CSG water) are poorly understood despite their environmental contamination potential. In this study, the presence of some organic substances is identified from government-held CSG water-quality data from the Bowen and Surat Basins, Queensland. These records revealed the presence of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in 27% of samples of CSG water from the Walloon Coal Measures at concentrations <1 µg/L, and it is likely these compounds leached from in situ coals. PAHs identified from wells include naphthalene, phenanthrene, chrysene and dibenz[a,h]anthracene. In addition, the likelihood of coal-derived organic compounds leaching to groundwater is assessed by undertaking toxicity leaching experiments using coal rank and water chemistry as variables. These tests suggest higher molecular weight PAHs (including benzo[a]pyrene) leach from higher rank coals, whereas lower molecular weight PAHs leach at greater concentrations from lower rank coal. Some of the identified organic compounds have carcinogenic or health risk potential, but they are unlikely to be acutely toxic at the observed concentrations which are almost negligible (largely due to the hydrophobicity of such compounds). Hence, this study will be useful to practitioners assessing CSG water related environmental and health risk.

Data as an asset: what the oil and gas sector can learn from other industries about “Big Data”

The upstream oil and gas industry has been contending with massive data sets and monolithic files for many years, but “Big Data” is a relatively new concept that has the potential to significantly re-shape the industry. Despite the impressive amount of value that is being realized by Big Data technologies in other parts of the marketplace, however, much of the data collected within the oil and gas sector tends to be discarded, ignored, or analyzed in a very cursory way. This viewpoint examines existing data management practices in the upstream oil and gas industry, and compares them to practices and philosophies that have emerged in organizations that are leading the way in Big Data. The comparison shows that, in companies that are widely considered to be leaders in Big Data analytics, data is regarded as a valuable asset—but this is usually not true within the oil and gas industry insofar as data is frequently regarded there as descriptive information about a physical asset rather than something that is valuable in and of itself. The paper then discusses how the industry could potentially extract more value from data, and concludes with a series of policy-related questions to this end.

Gas Sensing Properties of Tin Oxide Powder Synthesized in the Presence of Surfactants

Nanocrystalline tin oxide powder was prepared using a solution precipitation technique after adding the surfactant sodium bis (2-ethylhexyl) sulfosuccinate (AOT). Powders were characterized using X-ray diffraction (XRD), surface area (BET) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The gas sensitivity for surfactant added powders increased for liquid petroleum gas (LPG) as well as compressed natural gas (CNG), due to the decreased particle size and the increased surface area. The LPG gas sensitivity increased several times using phosphorus treated surfactant AOT.

Experiments on and thermodynamic analysis of a turbocharged engine with producer gas as fuel

This article presents the studies conducted on turbocharged producer gas engines designed originally for natural gas (NG) as the fuel. Producer gas, whose properties like stoichiometric ratio, calorific value, laminar flame speed, adiabatic flame temperature, and related parameters that differ from those of NG, is used as the fuel. Two engines having similar turbochargers are evaluated for performance. Detailed measurements on the mass flowrates of fuel and air, pressures and temperatures at various locations on the turbocharger were carried out. On both the engines, the pressure ratio across the compressor was measured to be 1.40 +/- 0.05 and the density ratio to be 1.35 +/- 0.05 across the turbocharger with after-cooler. Thermodynamic analysis of the data on both the engines suggests a compressor efficiency of 70 per cent. The specific energy consumption at the peak load is found to be 13.1 MJ/kWh with producer gas as the fuel. Compared with the naturally aspirated mode, the mass flow and the peak load in the turbocharged after-cooled condition increased by 35 per cent and 30 per cent, respectively. The pressure ratios obtained with the use of NG and producer gas are compared with corrected mass flow on the compressor map.

Selection and thermodynamic analysis of a turbocharger for a producer gas-fuelled multi-cylinder engine

The current work addresses the use of producer gas, a bio-derived gaseous alternative fuel, in engines designed for natural gas, derived from diesel engine frames. Impact of the use of producer gas on the general engine performance with specific focus on turbo-charging is addressed. The operation of a particular engine frame with diesel, natural gas and producer gas indicates that the peak load achieved is highest with diesel fuel (in compression ignition mode) followed by natural gas and producer gas (both in spark ignite mode). Detailed analysis of the engine power de-rating on fuelling with natural gas and producer gas indicates that the change in compression ratio (migration from compression to spark ignited mode), difference in mixture calorific value and turbocharger mismatch are the primary contributing factors. The largest de-rating occurs due to turbocharger mismatch. Turbocharger selection and optimization is identified as the strategy to recover the non-thermodynamic power loss, identified as the recovery potential (the loss due to mixture calorific value and turbocharger mismatch) on operating the engine with a fuel different from the base fuel. A turbocharged after-cooled six cylinder, 5.9 l, 90 kWe (diesel rating) engine (12.2 bar BMEP) is available commercially as a naturally aspirated natural gas engine delivering a peak load of 44.0 kWe (6.0 bar BMEP). The engine delivers a load of 27.3 kWe with producer gas under naturally aspirated mode. On charge boosting the engine with a turbocharger similar in configuration to the diesel engine turbocharger, the peak load delivered with producer gas is 36 kWe (4.8 bar BMEP) indicating a de-rating of about 60% over the baseline diesel mode. Estimation of knock limited peak load for producer gas-fuelled operation on the engine frame using a Wiebe function-based zero-dimensional code indicates a knock limited peak load of 76 kWe, indicating the potential to recover about 40 kWe. As a part of the recovery strategy, optimizing the ignition timing for maximum brake torque based on both spark sweep tests and established combustion descriptors and engine-turbocharger matching for producer gas-fuelled operation resulted in a knock limited peak load of 72.8 kWe (9.9 bar BMEP) at a compressor pressure ratio of 2.30. The de-rating of about 17.0 kWe compared to diesel rating is attributed to the reduction in compression ratio. With load recovery, the specific biomass consumption reduces from 1.2 kg/kWh to 1.0 kg/kWh, an improvement of over 16% while the engine thermal efficiency increases from 28% to 32%. The thermodynamic analysis of the compressor and the turbine indicates an isentropic efficiency of 74.5% and 73%, respectively.

Effect of port gas injection on in-cylinder stratification in a CNG fuelled SI engine

The concept of barrel stratification of air-fuel mixture is evaluated for a port gas injection (PGI) single cylinder spark ignition (SI) internal combustion (IC) engine using a transient three-dimensional computational fluid dynamic (CFD) model. The gaseous fuel used in the study is compressed natural gas (CNG). It is observed that compared to the premixed gas carburettor case, a substantial amount of in-cylinder stratification can be achieved with port gas injection system. A detailed parametric study is reported to understand the effect of the various injection parameters such as injection location, injection orientation, start of injection (SOT) and its duration, and injection rate. Furthermore, the best injection timing is evaluated for various load and speed cases. It is observed that the best stratification pattern can be achieved at 50% engine load. The injection location is observed to have a profound effect on the in-cylinder stratification pattern, and injection towards the side of the spark plug is observed to give a rich fuel-air mixture near the spark plug. It is also shown that there exists an optimal injection pressure.

In-cylinder investigations and analysis of a SI gas engine fuelled with H-2 and CO rich syngas fuel: Sensitivity analysis of combustion descriptors for engine diagnostics and control

The sensitivity of combustion phasing and combustion descriptors to ignition timing, load and mixture quality on fuelling a multi-cylinder natural gas engine with bio-derived H-2 and CO rich syngas is addressed. While the descriptors for conventional fuels are well established and are in use for closed loop engine control, presence of H-2 in syngas potentially alters the mixture properties and hence combustion phasing, necessitating the current study. The ability of the descriptors to predict abnormal combustion, hitherto missing in the literature, is also addressed. Results from experiments using multi-cylinder engines and numerical studies using zero dimensional Wiebe function based simulation models are reported. For syngas with 20% H-2 and CO and 2% CH4 (producer gas), an ignition retard of 5 +/- 1 degrees was required compared to natural gas ignition timing to achieve peak load of 72.8 kWe. It is found that, for syngas, whose flammability limits are 0.42-1.93, the optimal engine operation was at an equivalence ratio of 1.12. The same methodology is extended to a two cylinder engine towards addressing the influence of syngas composition, especially H-2 fraction (varying from 13% to 37%), on the combustion phasing. The study confirms the utility of pressure trace derived combustion descriptors, except for the pressure trace first derivative, in describing the MBT operating condition of the engine when fuelled with an alternative fuel. Both experiments and analysis suggest most of the combustion descriptors to be independent of the engine load and mixture quality. A near linear relationship with ignition angle is observed. The general trend(s) of the combustion descriptors for syngas fuelled operation are similar to those of conventional fuels; the differences in sensitivity of the descriptors for syngas fuelled engine operation requires re-calibration of control logic for MBT conditions. Copyright (C) 2014, Hydrogen Energy Publications, LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Life-cycle analysis of energy and greenhouse gas emissions of automotive fuels in India: Part 2-Well-to-wheels analysis

In this second of the two-part study, the results of the Tank-to-Wheels study reported in the first part are combined with Well-to-Tank results in this paper to provide a comprehensive Well-to-Wheels energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions evaluation of automotive fuels in India. The results indicate that liquid fuels derived from petroleum have Well-to-Tank efficiencies in the range of 75-85% with liquefied petroleum gas being the most efficient fuel in the Well-to-Tank stage with 85% efficiency. Electricity has the lowest efficiency of 20% which is mainly attributed due to its dependence on coal and 25.4% losses during transmission and distribution. The complete Well-to-Wheels results show diesel vehicles to be the most efficient among all configurations, specifically the diesel-powered split hybrid electric vehicle. Hydrogen engine configurations are the least efficient due to low efficiency of production of hydrogen from natural gas. Hybridizing electric vehicles reduces the Well-to-Wheels greenhouse gas emissions substantially with split hybrid configuration being the most efficient. Electric vehicles do not offer any significant improvement over gasoline-powered configurations; however a shift towards renewable sources for power generation and reduction in losses during transmission and distribution can make it a feasible option in the future. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Experimental study and simulation principles of an oil-gas multiphase transportation system

Presented is an experimental study on the performance of an oil-gas multiphase transportation system, especially on the multiphase flow patterns, multiphase pumping and multiphase metering of the system. A dynamic simulation analysis is conducted to deduce simulation parameters of the system and similarity criteria under simplified conditions are obtained. The reliability and feasibility of two-phase flow experiment with oil and natural gas simulated by water and air are discussed by using the similarity criteria.

A reserva estatal de atividade econômica e a propriedade do petróleo e do gás natural

A partir de uma pesquisa histórica sobre a regulação da atividade petrolífera nacional, constatou-se que as jazidas de petróleo e de gás natural são bens públicos cuja exploração é constitucionalmente reservada ao Estado. Ademais, a delegação da exploração desses bens, por meio de concessão ou de partilha de produção, mantém a propriedade estatal desses recursos naturais.