Capital flows to Latin America: third quarter 2002

Includes bibliography

Capital flows to Latin America: recent developments

Includes bibliography

ECLAC Notes Nº 42

Latin America and the Caribbean's Trade Rises for the Second Year Running China Seeking to Strengthen Economic Ties with Latin American Countries Op-ed by José Luis Machinea: A New Phase in Regional Integration Highlights by Ricardo Ffrench-Davis: Financial Crises in Emerging Economies: Not Just Bad Luck nor Pure Contagion Indicators It's Time to Reduce the Bias Against Public Investment Recent Titles Calendar

Capital flows to Latin America: recent developments

The external environment has deteriorated sharply as a result of the spiraling financial turmoil, and has led to a weakening in commodity prices and fears of a worldwide recession. Latin America and the Caribbean's fastest expansion in 40 years may be threatened as the global credit crunch makes financing scarce and squeezes demand for the region's commodities. This time around the region is better positioned to weather the crisis than in the past, given improvements in macroeconomic and financial policies as well as a reduced net dependency on external capital inflows. However, Latin American markets are feeling the effects of the crisis through a slowdown in capital inflows, large declines in stock price indexes, significant currency adjustments and an increase in debt spreads. Volatility has soared, with the closely watched Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index moving to an all-time high of 70.33 on October 17, indicating that fear (rather than greed) has been ruling the markets.After reaching record lows in May 2007, emerging markets bond spreads are now above pre-Asian crisis levels. The JPMorgan EMBI+ Latin American composite widened by 146 basis points in the third quarter, with spreads reaching 448 basis points at the end of September. Spreads have widened sharply in recent weeks as foreign investors cut back regional exposure for the safety of U.S. Treasuries. The ongoing lack of liquidity and subsequent liquidation of assets is leading to a collapse in asset prices and a sharp widening in spreads. Daily spreads in October have risen to levels not seen since December 2002, making it much more difficult for governments that need financing to get it. Risk premiums for Latin corporates and sovereigns have risen substantially, but have remained well below U.S. junk (high-yield) bonds. Latin corporates are facing a steep rise in foreign exchange borrowing costs (although less than firms in other emerging markets), which raises concerns that refinancing risks will climb.So far, emerging markets vulnerabilities have been more focused on corporates, as sovereigns have improved public debt dynamics and countries' financing needs are under control. Market performance has been driven by the rapid deterioration of emerging markets bank and corporate market, as well as ongoing losses in emerging markets equities. From January to September 2008, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Latin American Index lost almost 28%, while the Emerging Markets Index lost 37% and the G-7 Index lost 24%. While in 2007 the Latin America component gained 47%, almost nine times as much as the MSCI-G7 index for developed markets, since mid-September 2008 stocks in Latin America have been doing worse than stocks in developed countries, as concerns about access to credit and the adverse impact of sharp falls in commodity prices and in local currencies contribute to increased risk aversion and to outflows of capital. Many governments in the region have used revenue from the commodity boom to pay down debt and build reserves. Now, facing a global financial crisis and the threat of recession in developed countries, the biggest question for Latin America is how long and deep this cyclical downturn will be, and how much it is going to reduce commodity prices. Prices for commodities such as soy, gold, copper and oil, which helped fund the region's boom, have fallen 28% since their July 2 high, according to the RJ/CRB Commodity Price Index. According to Morgan Stanley (in a September 29 report), should prices return to their 10-year average, Latin America's balanced budgets would quickly revert to a deficit of 4.1% of GDP. As risk aversion increases, investors are rapidly pulling out massive amounts of money, creating problems for local markets and banks. There is an ongoing shortage of dollars (as investors liquidate assets in Latin American markets), and as currencies depreciate, inflation concerns increase despite the global slowdown. In Brazil and Mexico, central banks deployed billions of dollars of reserves to stem steep currency declines, as companies in these countries, believing their local currencies would continue to strengthen against the U.S. dollar, took debts in dollars. Some companies also made bets using currency derivatives that have led to losses in the billions of dollars. Dramatic currency swings have caused heavy losses for many companies, from Mexico's cement giant Cemex SAB to the Brazilian conglomerate Grupo Votorantim. Mexico's third-largest retailer, Controladora Comercial Mexicana, declared bankruptcy recently after reporting huge losses related to exchange rate bets. As concerns about corporate exposure to dollar-denominated derivatives increases, yields on bonds issued by many of Brazil's and Mexico's leading companies have started to rise, sharply raising the cost of issuing new debt. Latin American external debt issuance came to a halt in the third quarter of 2008, totaling only US$ 690 million. The cost of obtaining loans for capital expenditures, M&A and debt refinancing is also rising substantially for Latin American corporates amid contagion from the U.S. financial crisis. According to bankers, a protracted trend of shortening tenors and widening spreads has intensified in the past few weeks, indicating that bank lending is quickly following the way of bonds and equity. Finally, money transfers from Latin American migrants are expected to decline for the first time this decade, as a result of economic downturns in the U.S. and Spain, inflation and a weaker dollar. The Mexican Central Bank announced that money transfers from Mexicans living in the U.S. dropped a record 12.2% in August. In 2008, migrants from the region will send some 1.7% less in remittances year-on-year when adjusted for inflation, according to the IADB, compounding the adverse effects of the deepening financial turmoil.

CEPAL Review no. 95

The emergence of Latin multinationals / Javier Santiso .-- The new urban poverty: global, regional and Argentine dynamics during the last two decades / Gabriel Kessler and María Mercedes Di Virgilio .-- Economic regulation to supplement bidding for public works contracts / Eugenio Rivera Urrutia .-- The relation between foreign-exchange and banking crises in emerging countries: information and expectations problems / Daniel Sotelsek and Lilianne Pavón .-- Mexico’s slow-growth paradox / Carlos Ibarra .-- Globalization and regional development: the economic performance of Chile’s regions, 1990-2002 / Juan Carlos Ramírez J. and Iván Silva Lira .-- The fi nancial protection impact of the public health system and private insurance in Brazil / Antônio M. Bós and Hugh R. Waters .-- The impact of gender discrimination on poverty in Brazil / Rosycler Cristina Santos Simão and Sandro Eduardo Monsueto .-- Bank consolidation and credit concentration in Brazil (1995-2004) / Daniel B. de Castro Almeida and Frederico G. Jayme Jr. .-- Guidelines for contributors to the CEPAL Review .-- Recent ECLAC publications.

'Formidável contágio': epidemias, trabalho e recrutamento na Amazônia colonial (1660-1750)

Analisa em que medida epidemias de varíola e de sarampo ensejaram transformações nas formas de aquisição e uso de força de trabalho na Amazônia colonial, de meados do século XVII a meados do século XVIII, com o incremento de descimentos privados de índios e a tentativa de organização de uma rota de tráfico negreiro para a região. Trata igualmente de entender como a mortandade de indígenas significou, no fim do século XVII, uma preocupação com a defesa da região e motivou o recrutamento de soldados da Madeira.

Psicanálise e musicalidade(s): sublimação, invocações e laço social

Pós-graduação em Psicologia - FCLAS

Apontamentos sobre o imperialismo brasileiro nos governos FHC e Lula

Among the several changes propelled by the nancial and economic process, which began in 1990, the one which calls our attention is the one related to the role that Brazilian companies occupy in the international canary. In other words, it’s the imperialist character or, to be more precise, the subordinated imperialism which is carried out by the capital of Brazilian origin – or even international, but which has its “geographical basis” in Brazil – at the current moment of the capital internationalization.

Phylogeny and micro-habitats utilized by lizards determine the composition of their endoparasites in the semiarid Caatinga of Northeast Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Estratégia de Investimento baseada em padrões descobertos por mineração de dados em séries históricas de preços diários do Indice IBOVESPA e das ações da PETROBRAS-PN (PETR4.SA)

With the increase of stakeholders and consequently increase of amount of nancial transaction the study of news investment strategies in the stock market with data mining techniques has been the target of important researches. It allows that great historical data base to be processed and analysed looking for pattern that can be used to take a decision in investments. With the idea of getting pro t more than the real indexs' gain, we propose a strategy method of transactions using rules built by algorithm classi cation. For that, diary historical data of Ibovespa index and Petrobras stocks are organized and processed to nding the most important attribute that act decisively when taking a investment decision.To test the accuracy of proposed rules, a non real portfolio management is created, showing the decisions' performance over the real index and stocks' performance. Following the proposed rules, the results show that the strategy of investment give me back a high return that Stock market's return. The exclusive characteristics of algorithms maximize the gain inside the analysed time allowing to determine the techniques' return and the number of the days necessary to double the initial investment. The best classi er applied on the time series and its use on the propose investments strategy will demand 104 days to double the initial capital

Occupational exposure to contaminated biological material: perceptions and feelings experienced among dental students

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Ampliação da capacidade de análise: a produção de sentidos na Política Nacional de Humanização

The article refers to the collective construction performed from the Multicentric Research on Humanization Training of SUS. It is about production and building consensus on different interpretations of the superfamily "expansion of the analysis capability." The methodological approach is related to the creation of analytical reports coming from four sources: Intervention Plans built at the time of training courses offered in three states (Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and São Paulo) by the institutional supporters in training.Also, there were questionnaires answered via Form-SUS by graduated supporters after four years of the course closing; data and analysis produced by supporters in focus groups and interviews, conducted as the research final stage in the three states.Thus, considering the inclusive methodological framework not only from the courses, but also the research that evaluated them, the participants (graduates from the training courses) produced data and started to play the active role of researchers/panelists because they got “surprised" by partial analyzes.Therefore, the article discusses the analysis capability of demand required by supporters before their working areas and the relationship of that capability with concepts and elements of Institutional Analysis.It was possible to highlight the inseparability between demands of emergency and the exercise of being next to another person and his/her interests. The conclusion is that the methodology proposed by the course allowed the supporters in training to stimulate and develop a critical capacity on their work.However, it is noticed that the expansion of such analytical capability often remained linked to the supporter, without the contagion of other workers in the territories.It was also possible to see that the course and political framework of PNH could equip the supporters, promoting empowerment from their analysis, which is essential to the interventions performance.

Il Pluralismo tra Democrazia ed Autoritarismo: Il Caso Russo

The research explores the mechanisms in the formation and consolidation of a new regime which combines democratic and authoritarian features; it has emerged as result of democratization processes affecting different world areas in recent years. The study analyses a case of great international significance, post-communist Russia: here internal factors strongly prevail in front of the external variables of democratic imitation and contagion, thus showing to what extent Russia differs from other political contexts. The study intends to examine the strategies used by this regime to solve internal conflicts and become stable in spite of the democratizing pressures coming from outside. Indeed, the literature about political transformations has shown the problems in analyzing these polities together with the need to examine their peculiarities more in depth. In this perspective, the first section focuses on the dynamics of State-building in Russia as a fundamental process in tracing the specific characteristics of the current regime: particularly, it is suggested that the State dimension comes out as crucial in determining the level of political and social pluralism accepted in post-Soviet Russia. This argument is worked out in the second section, which analyses the main mechanisms used by the incumbents to limit and control pluralism within the two arenas of political competition and civil society, from where the major threats to the status quo are supposed to come. The main hypothesis is that the leadership interventions in these spheres during the last ten years have shaped a regime which can be characterized as a new type of authoritarianism: with respect to traditional authoritarian forms a certain degree of political contestation is accepted, visible in the presence of a multiparty system, semi-competitive elections and of the several representatives of civil society. Yet, this diversity is curbed basically in two different ways: from one hand the incumbents provide support to political and social actors who sponsor government politics (see the party of power and pro-Kremlin movements). From the other they use some non coercive forms of control and restriction (in legislation, in political elections) against those actors who promote values and priorities opposed to the official ones.

On The Timing of Default Losses: When and Why?

At the light of what happened in 2010 and 2011, a lot of European countries founded themselves in a difficult position where all the credit rating agencies were downgrading debt states. Problem of solvency and guarantees on the states' bond were perceived as too risky for a Monetary Union as Europe is. Fear of a contagion from Greece as well was threatening the other countries as Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland; while Germany and France asked for a division between risky and riskless bond in order to feel more safe. Our paper gets inspiration by Roch and Uhlig (2011), it refers to the Argentinian case examined by Arellano (2008) and examine possible interventions as monetization or bailout as proposed by Cole and Kehoe (2000). We propose a model in which a state defaults and cannot repay a fraction of the old bond; but contrary to Roch and Uhlig that where considering a one-time cost of default we consider default as an accumulation of losses, perceived as unpaid fractions of the old debts. Our contributions to literature is that default immediately imply that economy faces a bad period and, accumulating losses, government will be worse-off. We studied a function for this accumulation of debt period by period, in order to get an idea of the magnitude of this waste of resources that economy will face when experiences a default. Our thesis is that bailouts just postpone the day of reckoning (Roch, Uhlig); so it's better to default before accumulate a lot of debts. What Europe need now is the introduction of new reforms in a controlled default where the Eurozone will be saved in its whole integrity and a state could fail with the future promise of a resurrection. As experience show us, governments are not interested into reducing debts since there are ECB interventions. That clearly create a distortion between countries in the same monetary union, giving to the states just an illusion about their future debtor position.

Framing Death. La morte in diretta, tra cinema e media digitali

Come dimostrano i sempre più numerosi casi di cronaca riportati dai notiziari, la preoccupazione per la gestione delle immagini di morte si configura come un nodo centrale che coinvolge spettatori, produttori di contenuti e broadcaster, dato che la sua emersione nel panorama mediale in cui siamo immersi è sempre più evidente. Se la letteratura socio-antropologica è generalmente concorde nel ritenere che, rispetto al passato, oggi la morte si manifesti con meno evidenza nella vita comune delle persone, che tendono a rimuovere i segni della contiguità vivendo il lutto in forma privata, essa è però percepita in modo pervasivo perché disseminata nei (e dai) media. L'elaborato, concentrandosi in maniera specifica sulle produzioni audiovisive, e quindi sulla possibilità intrinseca al cinema – e alle sue forme derivate – di registrare un evento in diretta, tenta di mappare alcune dinamiche di produzione e fruizione considerando una particolare manifestazione della morte: quella che viene comunemente indicata come “morte in diretta”. Dopo una prima ricognizione dedicata alla tensione continua tra la spinta a considerare la morte come l'ultimo tabù e le manifestazioni che essa assume all'interno della “necrocultura”, appare chiaro che il paradigma pornografico risulta ormai inefficace a delineare compiutamente le emersioni della morte nei media, soggetta a opacità e interdizioni variabili, e necessita dunque di prospettive analitiche più articolate. Il fulcro dell'analisi è dunque la produzione e il consumo di precisi filoni quali snuff, cannibal e mondo movie e quelle declinazioni del gore che hanno ibridato reale e fittizio: il tentativo è tracciare un percorso che, a partire dal cinema muto, giunga al panorama contemporaneo e alle pratiche di remix rese possibili dai media digitali, toccando episodi controversi come i Video Nasties, le dinamiche di moral panic scatenate dagli snuff film e quelle di contagio derivanti dalla manipolazione e diffusione delle immagini di morte.