Future long-horizon performance measurement conditional on past survival

This paper examines the measurement of long-horizon abnormal performance when stock selection is conditional on an extended period of past survival. Filtering on survival results in a sample driven towards more-established, frequently traded stocks and this has implications for the choice of benchmark used in performance measurement (especially in the presence of the well-documented size effect). A simulation study is conducted to document the properties of commonly employed performance measures conditional on past survival. The results suggest that the popular index benchmarks used in long-horizon event studies are severely biased and yield test statistics that are badly misspecified. In contrast, a matched-stock benchmark based on size and industry performs consistently well. Also, an eligible-stock index designed to mitigate the influence of the size effect proves effective.

Adaptation is not required to explain the long-term response of axons to molecular gradients

It has been suggested that growth cones navigating through the developing nervous system might display adaptation, so that their response to gradient signals is conserved over wide variations in ligand concentration. Recently however, a new chemotaxis assay that allows the effect of gradient parameters on axonal trajectories to be finely varied has revealed a decline in gradient sensitivity on either side of an optimal concentration. We show that this behavior can be quantitatively reproduced with a computational model of axonal chemotaxis that does not employ explicit adaptation. Two crucial components of this model required to reproduce the observed sensitivity are spatial and temporal averaging. These can be interpreted as corresponding, respectively, to the spatial spread of signaling effects downstream from receptor binding, and to the finite time over which these signaling effects decay. For spatial averaging, the model predicts that an effective range of roughly one-third of the extent of the growth cone is optimal for detecting small gradient signals. For temporal decay, a timescale of about 3 minutes is required for the model to reproduce the experimentally observed sensitivity.

Time trials on second-order and variable-learning-rate algorithms

The performance of seven minimization algorithms are compared on five neural network problems. These include a variable-step-size algorithm, conjugate gradient, and several methods with explicit analytic or numerical approximations to the Hessian.

Comparison of the effect of pre-treatment and catalysts on liquid quality from fast pyrolysis of biomass

The overall objective of this work was to compare the effect of pre-treatment and catalysts on the quality of liquid products from fast pyrolysis of biomass. This study investigated the upgrading of bio-oil in terms of its quality as a bio-fuel and/or source of chemicals. Bio-oil used directly as a biofuel for heat or power needs to be improved particularly in terms of temperature sensitivity, oxygen content, chemical instability, solid content, and heating values. Chemicals produced from bio-oil need to be able to meet product specifications for market acceptability. There were two main objectives in this research. The first was to examine the influence of pre-treatment of biomass on the fast pyrolysis process and liquid quality. The relationship between the method of pre-treatment of biomass feedstock to fast pyrolysis oil quality was studied. The thermal decomposition behaviour of untreated and pretreated feedstocks was studied by using a TGA (thermogravimetric analysis) and a Py-GC/MS (pyroprobe-gas chromatography/mass spectrometry). Laboratory scale reactors (100g/h, 300g/h, 1kg/h) were used to process untreated and pretreated feedstocks by fast pyrolysis. The second objective was to study the influence of numerous catalysts on fast pyrolysis liquids from wheat straw. The first step applied analytical pyrolysis (Py-GC/MS) to determine which catalysts had an effect on fast pyrolysis liquid, in order to select catalysts for further laboratory fast pyrolysis. The effect of activation, temperature, and biomass pre-treatment on catalysts were also investigated. Laboratory experiments were also conducted using the existing 300g/h fluidised bed reactor system with a secondary catalytic fixed bed reactor. The screening of catalysts showed that CoMo was a highly active catalyst, which particularly reduced the higher molecular weight products of fast pyrolysis. From these screening tests, CoMo catalyst was selected for larger scale laboratory experiments. With reference to the effect of pre-treatment work on fast pyrolysis process, a significant effect occurred on the thermal decomposition of biomass, as well as the pyrolysis products composition, and the proportion of key components in bio-oil. Torrefaction proved to have a mild influence on pyrolysis products, when compared to aquathermolysis and steam pre-treatment.

Bayesian error bars for regression

Regression problems are concerned with predicting the values of one or more continuous quantities, given the values of a number of input variables. For virtually every application of regression, however, it is also important to have an indication of the uncertainty in the predictions. Such uncertainties are expressed in terms of the error bars, which specify the standard deviation of the distribution of predictions about the mean. Accurate estimate of error bars is of practical importance especially when safety and reliability is an issue. The Bayesian view of regression leads naturally to two contributions to the error bars. The first arises from the intrinsic noise on the target data, while the second comes from the uncertainty in the values of the model parameters which manifests itself in the finite width of the posterior distribution over the space of these parameters. The Hessian matrix which involves the second derivatives of the error function with respect to the weights is needed for implementing the Bayesian formalism in general and estimating the error bars in particular. A study of different methods for evaluating this matrix is given with special emphasis on the outer product approximation method. The contribution of the uncertainty in model parameters to the error bars is a finite data size effect, which becomes negligible as the number of data points in the training set increases. A study of this contribution is given in relation to the distribution of data in input space. It is shown that the addition of data points to the training set can only reduce the local magnitude of the error bars or leave it unchanged. Using the asymptotic limit of an infinite data set, it is shown that the error bars have an approximate relation to the density of data in input space.

A study of cluster analysis techniques and their applications

This thesis seeks to describe the development of an inexpensive and efficient clustering technique for multivariate data analysis. The technique starts from a multivariate data matrix and ends with graphical representation of the data and pattern recognition discriminant function. The technique also results in distances frequency distribution that might be useful in detecting clustering in the data or for the estimation of parameters useful in the discrimination between the different populations in the data. The technique can also be used in feature selection. The technique is essentially for the discovery of data structure by revealing the component parts of the data. lhe thesis offers three distinct contributions for cluster analysis and pattern recognition techniques. The first contribution is the introduction of transformation function in the technique of nonlinear mapping. The second contribution is the us~ of distances frequency distribution instead of distances time-sequence in nonlinear mapping, The third contribution is the formulation of a new generalised and normalised error function together with its optimal step size formula for gradient method minimisation. The thesis consists of five chapters. The first chapter is the introduction. The second chapter describes multidimensional scaling as an origin of nonlinear mapping technique. The third chapter describes the first developing step in the technique of nonlinear mapping that is the introduction of "transformation function". The fourth chapter describes the second developing step of the nonlinear mapping technique. This is the use of distances frequency distribution instead of distances time-sequence. The chapter also includes the new generalised and normalised error function formulation. Finally, the fifth chapter, the conclusion, evaluates all developments and proposes a new program. for cluster analysis and pattern recognition by integrating all the new features.

A cross-cultural study of factors influencing helping behaviour

The burgeoning research into altruism and helping behaviour has examined the effect of many variables that enhance or inhibit helpfulness, but little attention has been given to the influence of culture. In the present research, data on various aspects of helping behaviour were collected in both the UK and the Sudan so that the importance of cultural influences could be investigated. In addition this research also tested the validity of current models of helping. In a repertory grid study, urgency and cost emerged as the main constructs people in the two countries use to distinguish between various helpful situations. A laboratory experiment designed to test existing models of intervention behaviour found significant main effects of country, group, size, cost and urgency; and a group size/urgency interaction. Subjects in the Sudan intervened faster than subjects in the UK; lone subjects intervened faster than subjects in small and large groups; subjects in low cost intervened faster than subjects in high cost conditions; and subjects in high urgency intervened faster than subjects in low urgency conditions. Group size effect was stronger in low than in high urgency conditions. Two field studies further investigated the effect of urgency and cost in urban-nonurban context. Significant main effects of urgency and cost were found in cities but not in towns; and people in cities were less helpful than people in towns. A questionnaire survey found that in both countries there were significant urban-nonurban differences in the incidence of reported social contacts and exchange of helpful acts between acquaintances, neighbours and strangers. However, there were no urban-nonurban differences between relatives and close friends. Finally, attitudes to altruism and helpfulness did not differ between the two countries or between urban and nonurban residents. The results highlight the need to incorporate urgency and cultural variables in theoretical models of helping behaviour.

Deformation of sand in plane strain and oxisymmetric compression

Small scale laboratory experiments, in which the specimen is considered to represent an element of soil in the soil mass, are essential to the evolution of fundamental theories of mechanical behaviour. In this thesis, plane strain and axisymmetric compression tests, performed on a fine sand, are reported and the results are compared with various theoretical predictions. A new apparatus is described in which cuboidal samples can be tested in either axisymmetric compression or plane strain. The plane strain condition is simulated either by rigid side platens, in the conventional manner, or by flexible side platens which also measure the intermediate principal stress. Close control of the initial porosity of the specimens is achieved by a vibratory method of sample preparation. The strength of sand is higher in plane strain than in axisymmetric compression, and the strains required to mobilize peak strength are much smaller. The difference between plane strain and axisymmetric compression behaviour is attributed to the restrictions on particle movement enforced by the plane strain condition; this results in an increase in the frictional component of shear strength. The stress conditions at failure in plane strain, including the intermediate principal stress, are accurately predicted by a theory based on the stress- dilatancy interpretation of Mohr's circles. Detailed observations of rupture modes are presented and measured rupture plane inclinations are predicted by the stress-dilatancy theory. Although good correlation with the stress-dilatancy theory is obtained during virgin loading, in both axisymmetric compression and plane strain, the stress-dilatancy rule is only obeyed during reloading if the specimen has been unloaded to approximate ambient stress conditions. The shape of the stress-strain curves during pre-peak deformation, in both plane strain and axisymmetric compression, is accurately described bv a combined parabolic-hyperbolic specification.

Potential for broad range multiplexing of fibre Bragg gratings in polymer optical fibres and operation in the 700-nm wavelength range

Refractive index and structural characteristics of optical polymers are strongly influenced by the thermal history of the material. Polymer optical fibres (POF) are drawn under tension, resulting in axial orientation of the polymer molecular chains due to their susceptibility to align in the fibre direction. This change in orientation from the drawing process results in residual strain in the fibre and also affects the transparency and birefringence of the material (1-3). PMMA POF has failure strain as high as over 100%. POF has to be drawn under low tension to achieve this value. The drawing tension affects the magnitude of molecular alignment along the fibre axis, thus affecting the failure strain. The higher the tension the lower the failure stain will be. However, the properties of fibre drawn under high tension can approach that of fibre drawn under low tension by means of an annealing process. Annealing the fibre can generally optimise the performance of POF while keeping most advantages intact. Annealing procedures can reduce index difference throughout the bulk and also reduce residual stress that may cause fracture or distortion. POF can be annealed at temperatures approaching the glass transition temperature (Tg) of the polymer to produce FBG with a permanent blue Bragg wave-length shift at room temperature. At this elevated temperature segmental motion in the structure results in a lower viscosity. The material softens and the molecular chains relax from the axial orientation causing shrinking of the fibre. The large attenuation of typically 1dB/cm in the 1550nm spectral region of PMMA POF has limited FBG lengths to less than 10cm. The more expensive fluorinated polymers with lower absorption have had no success as FBG waveguides. Bragg grating have been inscribed onto various POF in the 800nm spectral region using a 30mW continuous wave 325nm helium cadmium laser, with a much reduced attenuation coefficient of 10dB/m (5). Fabricating multiplexed FBGs in the 800nm spectral region in TOPAS and PMMA POF consistently has lead to fabrication of multiplexed FBG in the 700nm spectral region by a method of prolonged annealing. The Bragg wavelength shift of gratings fabricated in PMMA fibre at 833nm and 867nm was monitored whilst the POF was thermally annealed at 80°C. Permanent shifts exceeding 80nm into the 700nm spectral region was attained by both gratings on the fibre. The large permanent shift creates the possibility of multiplexed Bragg sensors operating over a broad range. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. Pellerin C, Prud'homme RE, Pézolet M. Effect of thermal history on the molecular orientation in polystyrene/poly (vinyl methyl ether) blends. Polymer. 2003;44(11):3291-7. 2. Dvoránek L, Machová L, Šorm M, Pelzbauer Z, Švantner J, Kubánek V. Effects of drawing conditions on the properties of optical fibers made from polystyrene and poly (methyl methacrylate). Die Angewandte Makromolekulare Chemie. 1990;174(1):25-39. 3. Dugas J, Pierrejean I, Farenc J, Peichot JP. Birefringence and internal stress in polystyrene optical fibers. Applied optics. 1994;33(16):3545-8. 4. Jiang C, Kuzyk MG, Ding JL, Johns WE, Welker DJ. Fabrication and mechanical behavior of dye-doped polymer optical fiber. Journal of applied physics. 2002;92(1):4-12. 5. Johnson IP, Webb DJ, Kalli K, Yuan W, Stefani A, Nielsen K, et al., editors. Polymer PCF Bragg grating sensors based on poly (methyl methacrylate) and TOPAS cyclic olefin copolymer2011: SPIE.

Statnote 32 : the partial correlation coefficient

In previous statnotes, the application of correlation and regression methods to the analysis of two variables (X,Y) was described. The most important statistic used to measure the degree of correlation between two variables is Pearson’s ‘product moment correlation coefficient’ (‘r’). The correlation between two variables may be due to their common relation to other variables. Hence, investigators using correlation studies need to be alert to the possibilities of spurious correlation and the methods of ‘partial correlation’ are one method of taking this into account. This statnote applies the methods of partial correlation to three scenarios. First, to a fairly obvious example of a spurious correlation resulting from the ‘size effect’ involving the relationship between the number of general practitioners (GP) and the number of deaths of patients in a town. Second, to the relationship between the abundance of the nitrogen-fixing bacterium Azotobacter in soil and three soil variables, and finally, to a more complex scenario, first introduced in Statnote 24involving the relationship between the growth of lichens in the field and climate.

Potential for broad range multiplexing of fibre Bragg gratings in polymer optical fibres and operation in the 700-nm wavelength range

Refractive index and structural characteristics of optical polymers are strongly influenced by the thermal history of the material. Polymer optical fibres (POF) are drawn under tension, resulting in axial orientation of the polymer molecular chains due to their susceptibility to align in the fibre direction. This change in orientation from the drawing process results in residual strain in the fibre and also affects the transparency and birefringence of the material (1-3). PMMA POF has failure strain as high as over 100%. POF has to be drawn under low tension to achieve this value. The drawing tension affects the magnitude of molecular alignment along the fibre axis, thus affecting the failure strain. The higher the tension the lower the failure stain will be. However, the properties of fibre drawn under high tension can approach that of fibre drawn under low tension by means of an annealing process. Annealing the fibre can generally optimise the performance of POF while keeping most advantages intact. Annealing procedures can reduce index difference throughout the bulk and also reduce residual stress that may cause fracture or distortion. POF can be annealed at temperatures approaching the glass transition temperature (Tg) of the polymer to produce FBG with a permanent blue Bragg wave-length shift at room temperature. At this elevated temperature segmental motion in the structure results in a lower viscosity. The material softens and the molecular chains relax from the axial orientation causing shrinking of the fibre. The large attenuation of typically 1dB/cm in the 1550nm spectral region of PMMA POF has limited FBG lengths to less than 10cm. The more expensive fluorinated polymers with lower absorption have had no success as FBG waveguides. Bragg grating have been inscribed onto various POF in the 800nm spectral region using a 30mW continuous wave 325nm helium cadmium laser, with a much reduced attenuation coefficient of 10dB/m (5). Fabricating multiplexed FBGs in the 800nm spectral region in TOPAS and PMMA POF consistently has lead to fabrication of multiplexed FBG in the 700nm spectral region by a method of prolonged annealing. The Bragg wavelength shift of gratings fabricated in PMMA fibre at 833nm and 867nm was monitored whilst the POF was thermally annealed at 80°C. Permanent shifts exceeding 80nm into the 700nm spectral region was attained by both gratings on the fibre. The large permanent shift creates the possibility of multiplexed Bragg sensors operating over a broad range. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. Pellerin C, Prud'homme RE, Pézolet M. Effect of thermal history on the molecular orientation in polystyrene/poly (vinyl methyl ether) blends. Polymer. 2003;44(11):3291-7. 2. Dvoránek L, Machová L, Šorm M, Pelzbauer Z, Švantner J, Kubánek V. Effects of drawing conditions on the properties of optical fibers made from polystyrene and poly (methyl methacrylate). Die Angewandte Makromolekulare Chemie. 1990;174(1):25-39. 3. Dugas J, Pierrejean I, Farenc J, Peichot JP. Birefringence and internal stress in polystyrene optical fibers. Applied optics. 1994;33(16):3545-8. 4. Jiang C, Kuzyk MG, Ding JL, Johns WE, Welker DJ. Fabrication and mechanical behavior of dye-doped polymer optical fiber. Journal of applied physics. 2002;92(1):4-12. 5. Johnson IP, Webb DJ, Kalli K, Yuan W, Stefani A, Nielsen K, et al., editors. Polymer PCF Bragg grating sensors based on poly (methyl methacrylate) and TOPAS cyclic olefin copolymer2011: SPIE.

Low protein diet fed exclusively during mouse oocyte maturation leads to behavioural and cardiovascular abnormalities in offspring

Early embryonic development is known to be susceptible to maternal undernutrition, leading to a disease-related postnatal phenotype. To determine whether this sensitivity extended into oocyte development, we examined the effect of maternal normal protein diet (18% casein; NPD) or isocaloric low protein diet (9% casein; LPD) restricted to one ovulatory cycle (3.5 days) prior to natural mating in female MF-1 mice. After mating, all females received NPD for the remainder of gestation and all offspring were litter size adjusted and fed standard chow. No difference in gestation length, litter size, sex ratio or postnatal growth was observed between treatments. Maternal LPD did, however, induce abnormal anxiety-related behaviour in open field activities in male and female offspring (P <0.05). Maternal LPD offspring also exhibited elevated systolic blood pressure (SBP) in males at 9 and 15 weeks and in both sexes at 21 weeks (P <0.05). Male LPD offspring hypertension was accompanied by attenuated arterial responsiveness in vitro to vasodilators acetylcholine and isoprenaline (P <0.05). LPD female offspring adult kidneys were also smaller, but had increased nephron numbers (P <0.05). Moreover, the relationship between SBP and kidney or heart size or nephron number was altered by diet treatment (P <0.05). These data demonstrate the sensitivity of mouse maturing oocytes in vivo to maternal protein undernutrition and identify both behavioural and cardiovascular postnatal outcomes, indicative of adult disease. These outcomes probably derive from a direct effect of protein restriction, although indirect stress mechanisms may also be contributory. Similar and distinct postnatal outcomes were observed here compared with maternal LPD treatment during post-fertilization preimplantation development which may reflect the relative contribution of the paternal genome. © Journal compilation © 2008 The Physiological Society.

Generation and performance of localised surface plasmons utilising nano-scale structured multi-layered thin films deposited upon D-shaped optical fiber

A new generation of surface plasmonic optical fibre sensors is fabricated using multiple coatings deposited on a lapped section of a single mode fibre. Post-deposition UV laser irradiation using a phase mask produces a nano-scaled surface relief grating structure, resembling nano-wires. The overall length of the individual corrugations is approximately 14 μm with an average full width half maximum of 100 nm. Evidence is presented to show that these surface structures result from material compaction created by the silicon dioxide and germanium layers in the multi-layered coating and the surface topology is capable of supporting localised surface plasmons. The coating compaction induces a strain gradient into the D-shaped optical fibre that generates an asymmetric periodic refractive index profile which enhances the coupling of the light from the core of the fibre to plasmons on the surface of the coating. Experimental data are presented that show changes in spectral characteristics after UV processing and that the performance of the sensors increases from that of their pre-UV irradiation state. The enhanced performance is illustrated with regards to change in external refractive index and demonstrates high spectral sensitivities in gaseous and aqueous index regimes ranging up to 4000 nm/RIU for wavelength and 800 dB/RIU for intensity. The devices generate surface plasmons over a very large wavelength range, (visible to 2 μm) depending on the polarization state of the illuminating light. © 2013 SPIE.

Exact solution for the energy spectrum of Kelvin-wave turbulence in superfluids

We study the statistical and dynamical behavior of turbulent Kelvin waves propagating on quantized vortices in superfluids and address the controversy concerning the energy spectrum that is associated with these excitations. Finding the correct energy spectrum is important because Kelvin waves play a major role in the dissipation of energy in superfluid turbulence at near-zero temperatures. In this paper, we show analytically that the solution proposed by [L’vov and Nazarenko, JETP Lett. 91, 428 (2010)] enjoys existence, uniqueness, and regularity of the prefactor. Furthermore, we present numerical results of the dynamical equation that describes to leading order the nonlocal regime of the Kelvin-wave dynamics. We compare our findings with the analytical results from the proposed local and nonlocal theories for Kelvin-wave dynamics and show an agreement with the nonlocal predictions. Accordingly, the spectrum proposed by L’vov and Nazarenko should be used in future theories of quantum turbulence. Finally, for weaker wave forcing we observe an intermittent behavior of the wave spectrum with a fluctuating dissipative scale, which we interpreted as a finite-size effect characteristic of mesoscopic wave turbulence.

The combined impact of urban heat island, thermal bridge effect of buildings and future climate change on the potential overwintering of Phlebotomus species in a Central European metropolis

Leishmaniasis is one of the most important emerging vector-borne diseases in Western Eurasia. Although winter minimum temperatures limit the present geographical distribution of the vector Phlebotomus species, the heat island effect of the cities and the anthropogenic heat emission together may provide the appropriate environment for the overwintering of sand flies. We studied the climate tempering effect of thermal bridges and the heat island effect in Budapest, Hungary. Thermal imaging was used to measure the heat surplus of heat bridges. The winter heat island effect of the city was evaluated by numerical analysis of the measurements of the Aqua sensor of satellite Terra. We found that the surface temperature of thermal bridges can be at least 3-7 °C higher than the surrounding environment. The heat emission of thermal bridges and the urban heat island effect together can cause at least 10 °C higher minimum ambient temperature in winter nights than the minimum temperature of the peri-urban areas. This milder micro-climate of the built environment can enable the potential overwintering of some important European Phlebotomus species. The anthropogenic heat emission of big cities may explain the observed isolated northward populations of Phlebotomus ariasi in Paris and Phlebotomus neglectus in the agglomeration of Budapest.