A Cox Model for Biostatistics of the Future

Professor Sir David R. Cox (DRC) is widely acknowledged as among the most important scientists of the second half of the twentieth century. He inherited the mantle of statistical science from Pearson and Fisher, advanced their ideas, and translated statistical theory into practice so as to forever change the application of statistics in many fields, but especially biology and medicine. The logistic and proportional hazards models he substantially developed, are arguably among the most influential biostatistical methods in current practice. This paper looks forward over the period from DRC's 80th to 90th birthdays, to speculate about the future of biostatistics, drawing lessons from DRC's contributions along the way. We consider "Cox's model" of biostatistics, an approach to statistical science that: formulates scientific questions or quantities in terms of parameters gamma in probability models f(y; gamma) that represent in a parsimonious fashion, the underlying scientific mechanisms (Cox, 1997); partition the parameters gamma = theta, eta into a subset of interest theta and other "nuisance parameters" eta necessary to complete the probability distribution (Cox and Hinkley, 1974); develops methods of inference about the scientific quantities that depend as little as possible upon the nuisance parameters (Barndorff-Nielsen and Cox, 1989); and thinks critically about the appropriate conditional distribution on which to base infrences. We briefly review exciting biomedical and public health challenges that are capable of driving statistical developments in the next decade. We discuss the statistical models and model-based inferences central to the CM approach, contrasting them with computationally-intensive strategies for prediction and inference advocated by Breiman and others (e.g. Breiman, 2001) and to more traditional design-based methods of inference (Fisher, 1935). We discuss the hierarchical (multi-level) model as an example of the future challanges and opportunities for model-based inference. We then consider the role of conditional inference, a second key element of the CM. Recent examples from genetics are used to illustrate these ideas. Finally, the paper examines causal inference and statistical computing, two other topics we believe will be central to biostatistics research and practice in the coming decade. Throughout the paper, we attempt to indicate how DRC's work and the "Cox Model" have set a standard of excellence to which all can aspire in the future.

QUANTIFYING UNCERTAINTY IN GENOTYPE CALLS

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are used to discover genes underlying complex, heritable disorders for which less powerful study designs have failed in the past. The number of GWAS has skyrocketed recently with findings reported in top journals and the mainstream media. Mircorarrays are the genotype calling technology of choice in GWAS as they permit exploration of more than a million single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)simultaneously. The starting point for the statistical analyses used by GWAS, to determine association between loci and disease, are genotype calls (AA, AB, or BB). However, the raw data, microarray probe intensities, are heavily processed before arriving at these calls. Various sophisticated statistical procedures have been proposed for transforming raw data into genotype calls. We find that variability in microarray output quality across different SNPs, different arrays, and different sample batches has substantial inuence on the accuracy of genotype calls made by existing algorithms. Failure to account for these sources of variability, GWAS run the risk of adversely affecting the quality of reported findings. In this paper we present solutions based on a multi-level mixed model. Software implementation of the method described in this paper is available as free and open source code in the crlmm R/BioConductor.

An integrated approach for reconstructing surface models of the proximal femur from sparse input data for surgical navigation

A patient-specific surface model of the proximal femur plays an important role in planning and supporting various computer-assisted surgical procedures including total hip replacement, hip resurfacing, and osteotomy of the proximal femur. The common approach to derive 3D models of the proximal femur is to use imaging techniques such as computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). However, the high logistic effort, the extra radiation (CT-imaging), and the large quantity of data to be acquired and processed make them less functional. In this paper, we present an integrated approach using a multi-level point distribution model (ML-PDM) to reconstruct a patient-specific model of the proximal femur from intra-operatively available sparse data. Results of experiments performed on dry cadaveric bones using dozens of 3D points are presented, as well as experiments using a limited number of 2D X-ray images, which demonstrate promising accuracy of the present approach.

ATP modeling of internal transformer faults for relay performance testing

Transformers are very important elements of any power system. Unfortunately, they are subjected to through-faults and abnormal operating conditions which can affect not only the transformer itself but also other equipment connected to the transformer. Thus, it is essential to provide sufficient protection for transformers as well as the best possible selectivity and sensitivity of the protection. Nowadays microprocessor-based relays are widely used to protect power equipment. Current differential and voltage protection strategies are used in transformer protection applications and provide fast and sensitive multi-level protection and monitoring. The elements responsible for detecting turn-to-turn and turn-to-ground faults are the negative-sequence percentage differential element and restricted earth-fault (REF) element, respectively. During severe internal faults current transformers can saturate and slow down the speed of relay operation which affects the degree of equipment damage. The scope of this work is to develop a modeling methodology to perform simulations and laboratory tests for internal faults such as turn-to-turn and turn-to-ground for two step-down power transformers with capacity ratings of 11.2 MVA and 290 MVA. The simulated current waveforms are injected to a microprocessor relay to check its sensitivity for these internal faults. Saturation of current transformers is also studied in this work. All simulations are performed with the Alternative Transients Program (ATP) utilizing the internal fault model for three-phase two-winding transformers. The tested microprocessor relay is the SEL-487E current differential and voltage protection relay. The results showed that the ATP internal fault model can be used for testing microprocessor relays for any percentage of turns involved in an internal fault. An interesting observation from the experiments was that the SEL-487E relay is more sensitive to turn-to-turn faults than advertized for the transformers studied. The sensitivity of the restricted earth-fault element was confirmed. CT saturation cases showed that low accuracy CTs can be saturated with a high percentage of turn-to-turn faults, where the CT burden will affect the extent of saturation. Recommendations for future work include more accurate simulation of internal faults, transformer energization inrush, and other scenarios involving core saturation, using the newest version of the internal fault model. The SEL-487E relay or other microprocessor relays should again be tested for performance. Also, application of a grounding bank to the delta-connected side of a transformer will increase the zone of protection and relay performance can be tested for internal ground faults on both sides of a transformer.

Improving the sustainability of an appropriate technology solution; bone char defluoridation filters in Arusha, Tanzania

High concentrations of fluoride naturally occurring in the ground water in the Arusha region of Tanzania cause dental, skeletal and non-skeletal fluorosis in up to 90% of the region’s population [1]. Symptoms of this incurable but completely preventable disease include brittle, discolored teeth, malformed bones and stiff and swollen joints. The consumption of high fluoride water has also been proven to cause headaches and insomnia [2] and adversely affect the development of children’s intelligence [3, 4]. Despite the fact that this array of symptoms may significantly impact a society’s development and the citizens’ ability to perform work and enjoy a reasonable quality of life, little is offered in the Arusha region in the form of solutions for the poor, those hardest hit by the problem. Multiple defluoridation technologies do exist, yet none are successfully reaching the Tanzanian public. This report takes a closer look at the efforts of one local organization, the Defluoridation Technology Project (DTP), to address the region’s fluorosis problem through the production and dissemination of bone char defluoridation filters, an appropriate technology solution that is proven to work. The goal of this research is to improve the sustainability of DTP’s operations and help them reach a wider range of clients so that they may reduce the occurrence of fluorosis more effectively. This was done first through laboratory testing of current products. Results of this testing show a wide range in uptake capacity across batches of bone char emphasizing the need to modify kiln design in order to produce a more consistent and high quality product. The issue of filter dissemination was addressed through the development of a multi-level, customerfunded business model promoting the availability of filters to Tanzanians of all socioeconomic levels. Central to this model is the recommendation to focus on community managed, institutional sized filters in order to make fluoride free water available to lower income clients and to increase Tanzanian involvement at the management level.

Handbook of Swiss Politics

Approaching Switzerland as a “laboratory” for democracy, this Handbook contributes to a refined understanding of the res publica. Over the years, the Handbook of Swiss Politics has established itself as a classic work. This new and extended second edition of the Handbook comprises 32 chapters, all by leading Swiss political scientists. The contributors write about fundamentals, institutions, interest groups, political parties, new social movements, the cantons and municipalities, elections, popular votes, policy processes and public policies. They address several important issues in the current international debates, such as the internationalization of domestic politics, multi-level governance, and the role of metropolitan agglomerations. Nine new chapters enrich this second, completely updated version. The section on public policies has been significantly extended, and covers a dozen of policy domains. Grounded on the latest scientific knowledge, this volume also serves as an indispensable reference for a non-academic audience of decision-makers, diplomats, senior officials and journalists.

The Long Tail of the Rainbow Serpent: New Technologies and the Protection and Promotion of Traditional Cultural Expressions

New technologies, in particular those stemming from digitisation, allow amongst other things the production of perfect copies, instantaneous and ubiquitous distribution of and easy access to information with no real location restrictions. The effects of these technological advances have largely been perceived as negative for the protection of traditional cultural expressions (TCE), both because of the peculiarities of the digital networked environment and because of the lack of appropriate intellectual property protection models for TCE. The purpose of this article is, while accounting for the diversity and complexity of issues related to TCE, to reveal a more positive side of digital technologies. It shows the potential of these to be proactively applied and the further reaching possibilities for designing an efficient multi-level and multi-faceted toolbox for the protection and promotion of TCE in the digital ecology.

Focal adhesion kinase is a load-dependent governor of the slow contractile and oxidative muscle phenotype

Striated muscle exhibits a pronounced structural-functional plasticity in response to chronic alterations in loading. We assessed the implication of focal adhesion kinase (FAK) signalling in mechano-regulated differentiation of slow-oxidative muscle. Load-dependent consequences of FAK signal modulation were identified using a multi-level approach after electrotransfer of rat soleus muscle with FAK-expression plasmid vs. empty plasmid-transfected contralateral controls. Muscle fibre-targeted over-expression of FAK in anti-gravitational muscle for 9 days up-regulated transcript levels of gene ontologies underpinning mitochondrial metabolism and contraction in the transfected belly portion. Concomitantly, mRNA expression of the major fast-type myosin heavy chain (MHC) isoform, MHC2A, was reduced. The promotion of the slow-oxidative expression programme by FAK was abolished after co-expression of the FAK inhibitor FAK-related non-kinase (FRNK). Elevated protein content of MHC1 (+9%) and proteins of mitochondrial respiration (+165-610%) with FAK overexpression demonstrated the translation of transcript differentiation in targeted muscle fibres towards a slow-oxidative muscle phenotype. Coincidentally MHC2A protein was reduced by 50% due to protection of muscle from de-differentiation with electrotransfer. Fibre cross section in FAK-transfected muscle was elevated by 6%. The FAK-modulated muscle transcriptome was load-dependent and regulated in correspondence to tyrosine 397 phosphorylation of FAK. In the context of overload, the FAK-induced gene expression became manifest at the level of contraction by a slow transformation and the re-establishment of normal muscle force from the lowered levels with transfection. These results highlight the analytic power of a systematic somatic transgene approach by mapping a role of FAK in the dominant mechano-regulation of muscular motor performance via control of gene expression.

Finding Homogeneity in Heterogeneity - A New Approach to Quantifying Landscape Mosaics Developed for the Lao PDR

A key challenge for land change science in general and research on swidden agriculture in particular, is linking land cover information to human–environment interactions over larger spatial areas. In Lao PDR, a country facing rapid and multi-level land change processes, this hinders informed policy- and decision-making. Crucial information on land use types and people involved is still lacking. This article proposes an alternative approach for the description of landscape mosaics. Instead of analyzing local land use combinations, we studied land cover mosaics at a meso-level of spatial scale and interpreted these in terms of human–environmental interactions. These landscape mosaics were then overlaid with population census data. Results showed that swidden agricultural landscapes, involving 17% of the population, dominate 29% of the country, while permanent agricultural landscapes involve 74% of the population in 29% of the territory. Forests still form an important component of these landscape mosaics.

Functional regulatory spaces

This article develops the concept of “Functional Regulatory Space” (FRS) in order to analyze the new forms of State action addressing (super) wicked problems. A FRS simultaneously spans several policy sectors, institutional territories and levels of government. It suggests integrating previous policy theories that focused on “boundary-spanning regime,” “territorial institutionalism” or multi-level governance. The FRS concept is envisaged as a Weberian “ideal-type” of State action and is applied to the empirical study of two European cases of potential FRS: the integrated management of water basins and the regulation of the European sky through functional airspace blocks. It will be concluded that the current airspace regulation does match the ideal-type of FRS any better than the water resource regulation does. The next research step consists in analyzing the genesis and institutionalization of potential FRS addressing other (super) wicked problems such as climate change and economic, security, health and immigration issues in different institutional contexts as well as at various levels of governance.

Individual and structural factors of member commitment in sports clubs

This article analyses the conditions influencing the commitment of members of sports clubs. It focuses not only on individual characteristics of members, but also on the corresponding structural conditions of sports clubs related to the individual decision to quit or continue their membership. The influences of both the individual and context levels on the commitment of members are estimated in different multi-level models. Results of these multi-level analyses indicate that commitment of members is not just an outcome of individual characteristics such as strong commitment to the club, positively perceived communication and cooperation, satisfaction with sports clubsʼ offers, or voluntary engagement. It is also influenced by club-specific structural conditions: commitment is more probable in rural sports clubs, and clubs who explicitly support sociability, whereas success-oriented sporting goals in clubs have a destabilizing effect.

Sportvereine als Interessenorganisationen?! – Ursachen und Auswirkungen von Ziel-Interessen-Divergenzen in freiwilligen Sportorganisationen

Für Sportvereine als Interessenorganisationen scheint die Rückbindung der Vereinsziele an die Mitgliederinteressen von zentraler Bedeutung zu sein. In der Vereinsrealität dürfte aber diese Rückbindung nur teilweise gewährleistet sein und folglich Ziel-Interessen-Divergenzen eher die Norm als die Ausnahme darstellen. Vor diesem Hintergrund stellt sich die Frage, welche Ursachen für Ziel-Interessen-Divergenzen verantwortlich zu machen sind und welche Auswirkungen sich daraus für die Vereine ergeben. Dieser Frage geht der vorliegende Beitrag nach, indem auf der Grundlage des Akteurtheoretischen Mehr-Ebenen-Modells zur Analyse der Entwicklung von Sportvereinen die struktur- und handlungsbedingten Ursachen und Auswirkungen von Divergenzen auf der Vereins- und Mitgliederebene beleuchtet werden. Mit Blick auf die Ursachen wurde der Einfluss der korporativen Vereinsstrukturen und der individuellen Handlungsorientierungen der Mitglieder auf Divergenzen untersucht. Die Befunde hierzu zeigen, dass Divergenzen einerseits durch einem zunehmenden Differenzierungs- und Hierarchisierungsgrad (z.B. Vereinsgröße, Umweltvernetzung, Oligarchisierung) begünstigt werden und andererseits vor allem bei einer primären Verfolgung von Eigeninteressen der Mitglieder auftreten. Hinsichtlich der Auswirkungen wurden die individuellen Mitgliederreaktionen und die korporativen Vereinsreaktionen auf Divergenzen analysiert. Diesbezüglich zeigen die Befunde, dass sowohl die Mitglieder als auch die Vereinsführung überwiegend konstruktiv auf Divergenzen reagieren (z.B. durch Problemansprache, Vertrauen, Kompromissfindung), so dass es vielen Vereinen offenbar relativ gut gelingt, Ziel-Interessen-Divergenzen bis zu einem gewissen Grad sowohl aushalten als auch aufarbeiten zu können.

Individual socialization or politocultural context? The cultural roots of volunteering in Switzerland

Volunteering rates in Switzerland vary substantially across language regions. In this article, we investigate the cultural roots of this variation by presenting and empirically testing two different conceptualizations of how linguistic culture is related to individual volunteering. Whereas the first perspective perceives the individual as belonging to a particular language community and its norms and values as crucial for individual volunteering, the other sees the linguistic culture mainly as an important context in which an individual lives and which therefore influences individual volunteering. Empirically, we base our analysis on new survey data from 60 Swiss communes and apply a Bayesian multi-level analysis in order to disentangle the linguistic group from contextual effects. Our analysis supports the view that cultural patterns of civic self-organization can indeed explain regional volunteering behaviour in Switzerland. Whereas the propensity to volunteer is generally highest in German-speaking Switzerland, our findings reveal that it is the group of French speakers that exhibits the highest propensity to volunteer when controlling for language region.

Ecosystem service trade-offs and stakeholder claims - a meso-scale study from a Madagascar biodiversity hotspot

The north-eastern escarpment of Madagascar has been labelled a global biodiversity hotspot due to its extremely high rates of endemic species which are heavily threatened by accelerated deforestation rates and landscape change. The traditional practice of shifting cultivation or "tavy" used by the majority of land users in this area to produce subsistence rice is commonly blamed for these threats. A wide range of stakeholders ranging from conservation to development agencies, and from the private to the public sector has therefore been involved in trying to find solutions to protect the remaining forest fragments and to increase agricultural production. Consequently, provisioning, regulating and socio-cultural services of this forest-mosaic landscape are fundamentally altered leading to trade-offs between them and consequently new winners and losers amongst the stakeholders at different scales. However, despite a growing amount of evidence from case studies analysing local changes, the regional dynamics of the landscape and their contribution to such trade-offs remain poorely understood. This study therefore aims at using generalised landscape units as a base for the assessment of multi-level stakeholder claims on ecosystem services to inform negotiation, planning and decision making at a meso-scale. The presented study applies a mixed-method approach combining remote sensing, GIS and socio-economic methods to reveal current landscape dynamics, their change over time and the corresponding ecosystem service trade-offs induced by diverse stakeholder claims on the regional level. In a first step a new regional land cover classification for three points in time (1995, 2005 and 2011) was conducted including agricultural classes characteristic for shifting cultivation systems. Secondly, a novel GIS approach, termed “landscape mosaics approach” originally developed to assess dynamics of shifting cultivation landscapes in Laos was applied. Through this approach generalised landscape mosaics were generated allowing for a better understanding of changes in land use intensities instead of land cover. As a next step we will try to use these landscape units as proxies to map provisioning and regulating ecosystem services throughout the region. Through the overlay with other regional background data such as accessibility and population density and information from a region-wide stakeholder analysis, multiscale trade-offs between different services will be highlighted. The trade-offs observed on the regional scale will then be validated through a socio-economic ground-truthing within selected sites at the local scale. We propose that such meso-scale knowledge is required by all stakeholders involved in decision making towards sustainable development of north-eastern Madagascar.

The EU’s Choice of Regulatory Venues for Trade Negotiations: A Tale of Agency Power?

This article focuses on the EU’s strategy for choosing regulatory venues to negotiate trade agreements. It analyses the existence of a clear venue hierarchy since the late 1990s and the recent change leading to a blurring of any clear preference for using bilateral, inter-regional or multilateral settings. The article challenges domestic explanations of the EU’s choice of venue, stressing the autonomy of the Commission as a major factor. Using a principal-agent framework, it shows that the Commission’s agenda-setting powers, the existence of interest divergence among principals (e.g. Member States, business groups) and the multi-level system facilitate agency.