Modelling monsoons: understanding and predicting current and future behaviour

The global monsoon system is so varied and complex that understanding and predicting its diverse behaviour remains a challenge that will occupy modellers for many years to come. Despite the difficult task ahead, an improved monsoon modelling capability has been realized through the inclusion of more detailed physics of the climate system and higher resolution in our numerical models. Perhaps the most crucial improvement to date has been the development of coupled ocean-atmosphere models. From subseasonal to interdecadal time scales, only through the inclusion of air-sea interaction can the proper phasing and teleconnections of convection be attained with respect to sea surface temperature variations. Even then, the response to slow variations in remote forcings (e.g., El Niño—Southern Oscillation) does not result in a robust solution, as there are a host of competing modes of variability that must be represented, including those that appear to be chaotic. Understanding the links between monsoons and land surface processes is not as mature as that explored regarding air-sea interactions. A land surface forcing signal appears to dominate the onset of wet season rainfall over the North American monsoon region, though the relative role of ocean versus land forcing remains a topic of investigation in all the monsoon systems. Also, improved forecasts have been made during periods in which additional sounding observations are available for data assimilation. Thus, there is untapped predictability that can only be attained through the development of a more comprehensive observing system for all monsoon regions. Additionally, improved parameterizations - for example, of convection, cloud, radiation, and boundary layer schemes as well as land surface processes - are essential to realize the full potential of monsoon predictability. A more comprehensive assessment is needed of the impact of black carbon aerosols, which may modulate that of other anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Dynamical considerations require ever increased horizontal resolution (probably to 0.5 degree or higher) in order to resolve many monsoon features including, but not limited to, the Mei-Yu/Baiu sudden onset and withdrawal, low-level jet orientation and variability, and orographic forced rainfall. Under anthropogenic climate change many competing factors complicate making robust projections of monsoon changes. Absent aerosol effects, increased land-sea temperature contrast suggests strengthened monsoon circulation due to climate change. However, increased aerosol emissions will reflect more solar radiation back to space, which may temper or even reduce the strength of monsoon circulations compared to the present day. Precipitation may behave independently from the circulation under warming conditions in which an increased atmospheric moisture loading, based purely on thermodynamic considerations, could result in increased monsoon rainfall under climate change. The challenge to improve model parameterizations and include more complex processes and feedbacks pushes computing resources to their limit, thus requiring continuous upgrades of computational infrastructure to ensure progress in understanding and predicting current and future behaviour of monsoons.

Farm-level economic performance of genetically modified cotton in Maharashtra, India

A study of the commercial growing of Bacillus flutringiensis (Bt) cotton in India, compares the performance of over 9,000 Bt and non-Bt cotton farm plots in Maharashtra over the 2002 and 2003 seasons. Results show that since their commercial release in 2002, Bt cotton varieties have had a significant positive impact on average yields and on the economic performance of cotton growers. Regional variation showed that, in a very few areas, not all farmers had benefited from increased performance of Bt varieties.

Genetically modified insect resistance in cotton: some farm level economic impacts in India

The paper explores the impact of insect-resistant Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton on costs and returns over the first two seasons of its commercial release in three sub-regions of Maharashtra State, India. It is the first such research conducted in India based on farmers' own practices rather than trial plots. Data were collected for a total of 7793 cotton plots in 2002 and 1577 plots in 2003. Results suggest that while the cost of cotton seed was much higher for farmers growing Bt cotton relative to those growing non-Bt cotton, the costs of bollworm spray were much lower. While Bt plots had greater costs (seed plus insecticide) than non-Bt plots, the yields and revenue from Bt plots were much higher than those of non-Bt plots (some 39% and 63% higher in 2002 and 2003, respectively). Overall, the gross margins of Bt plots were some 43% (2002) and 73% (2003) higher than those of non-Bt plots, although there was some variation between the three sub-regions of the state. The results suggest that Bt cotton has provided substantial benefits for farmers in India over the 2 years, but there are questions as to whether these benefits are sustainable. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inequality and GM crops: a case study of Bt cotton in India

Critics of genetically modified (GM) crops often contend that their introduction enhances the gap between rich and poor farmers, as the former group are in the best position to afford the expensive seed as well as provide other inputs such as fertilizer and irrigation. The research reported in this paper explores this issue with regard to Bt cotton (cotton with the endotoxtin gene from Bacillus thuringiensis conferring resistance to some insect pests) in Jalgaon, Maharashtra State, India, spanning the 2002 and 2003 seasons. Questionnaire–based survey results from 63 non–adopting and 94 adopting households of Bt cotton were analyzed, spanning 137 Bt cotton plots and 95 non–Bt cotton plots of both Bt adopters and non–adopters. For these households, cotton income accounted for 85 to 88% of total household income, and is thus of vital importance. Results suggest that in 2003 Bt adopting households have significantly more income from cotton than do non–adopting households (Rp 66,872 versus Rp 46,351) but inequality in cotton income, measured with the Gini coefficient (G), was greater amongst non–adopters than adopters. While Bt adopters had greater acreage of cotton in 2003 (9.92 acres versus 7.42 for non–adopters), the respective values of G were comparable. The main reason for the lessening of inequality amongst adopters would appear to be the consistency in the performance of Bt cotton along with the preferred non–Bt cultivar of Bt adopters—Bunny. Taking gross margin as the basis for comparison, Bt plots had 2.5 times the gross margin of non–Bt plots of non–adopters, while the advantage of Bt plots over non–Bt plots of adopters was 1.6 times. Measured in terms of the Gini coefficient of gross margin/acre it was apparent that inequality was lessened with the adoption of Bunny (G = 0.47) and Bt (G = 0.3) relative to all other non–Bt plots (G = 0.63). Hence the issue of equality needs to be seen both in terms of differences between adopters and non–adopters as well as within each of the groups.

The statistical properties of tropical ice clouds generated by the West-African and Australian monsoons from ground-based radar-lidar observations

In the present paper we characterize the statistical properties of non-precipitating tropical ice clouds (deep ice anvils resulting from deep convection and cirrus clouds) over Niamey, Niger, West Africa, and Darwin, northern Australia, using ground-based radar–lidar observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) programme. The ice cloud properties analysed in this paper are the frequency of ice cloud occurrence, cloud fraction, the morphological properties (cloud-top height, base height, and thickness), the microphysical and radiative properties (ice water content, visible extinction, effective radius, terminal fall speed, and concentration), and the internal cloud dynamics (in-cloud vertical air velocity). The main highlight of the paper is that it characterizes for the first time the probability density functions of the tropical ice cloud properties, their vertical variability and their diurnal variability at the same time. This is particularly important over West Africa, since the ARM deployment in Niamey provides the first vertically resolved observations of non-precipitating ice clouds in this crucial area in terms of redistribution of water and energy in the troposphere. The comparison between the two sites also provides an additional observational basis for the evaluation of the parametrization of clouds in large-scale models, which should be able to reproduce both the statistical properties at each site and the differences between the two sites. The frequency of ice cloud occurrence is found to be much larger over Darwin when compared to Niamey, and with a much larger diurnal variability, which is well correlated with the diurnal cycle of deep convective activity. The diurnal cycle of the ice cloud occurrence over Niamey is also much less correlated with that of deep convective activity than over Darwin, probably owing to the fact that Niamey is further away from the deep convective sources of the region. The frequency distributions of cloud fraction are strongly bimodal and broadly similar over the two sites, with a predominance of clouds characterized either by a very small cloud fraction (less than 0.3) or a very large cloud fraction (larger than 0.9). The ice clouds over Darwin are also much thicker (by 1 km or more statistically) and are characterized by a much larger diurnal variability than ice clouds over Niamey. Ice clouds over Niamey are also characterized by smaller particle sizes and fall speeds but in much larger concentrations, thereby carrying more ice water and producing more visible extinction than the ice clouds over Darwin. It is also found that there is a much larger occurrence of downward in-cloud air motions less than 1 m s−1 over Darwin, which together with the larger fall speeds retrieved over Darwin indicates that the life cycle of ice clouds is probably shorter over Darwin than over Niamey.

Impacts of 20th century aerosol emissions on the South Asian monsoon in the CMIP5 models

Comparison of single-forcing varieties of 20th century historical experiments in a subset of models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) reveals that South Asian summer monsoon rainfall increases towards the present day in Greenhouse Gas (GHG)-only experiments with respect to pre-industrial levels, while it decreases in anthropogenic aerosol-only experiments. Comparison of these single-forcing experiments with the all-forcings historical experiment suggests aerosol emissions have dominated South Asian monsoon rainfall trends in recent decades, especially during the 1950s to 1970s. The variations in South Asian monsoon rainfall in these experiments follows approximately the time evolution of inter-hemispheric temperature gradient over the same period, suggesting a contribution from the large-scale background state relating to the asymmetric distribution of aerosol emissions about the equator. By examining the 24 available all-forcings historical experiments, we show that models including aerosol indirect effects dominate the negative rainfall trend. Indeed, models including only the direct radiative effect of aerosol show an increase in monsoon rainfall, consistent with the dominance of increasing greenhouse gas emissions and planetary warming on monsoon rainfall in those models. For South Asia, reduced rainfall in the models with indirect effects is related to decreased evaporation at the land surface rather than from anomalies in horizontal moisture flux, suggesting the impact of indirect effects on local aerosol emissions. This is confirmed by examination of aerosol loading and cloud droplet number trends over the South Asia region. Thus, while remote aerosols and their asymmetric distribution about the equator play a role in setting the inter-hemispheric temperature distribution on which the South Asian monsoon, as one of the global monsoons, operates, the addition of indirect aerosol effects acting on very local aerosol emissions also plays a role in declining monsoon rainfall. The disparity between the response of monsoon rainfall to increasing aerosol emissions in models containing direct aerosol effects only and those also containing indirect effects needs to be urgently investigated since the suggested future decline in Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions inherent to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) used for future climate projection may turn out to be optimistic. In addition, both groups of models show declining rainfall over China, also relating to local aerosol mechanisms. We hypothesize that aerosol emissions over China are large enough, in the CMIP5 models, to cause declining monsoon rainfall even in the absence of indirect aerosol effects. The same is not true for India.

The impact of monsoon intraseasonal variability on renewable power generation in India

India is increasingly investing in renewable technology to meet rising energy demands, with hydropower and other renewables comprising one-third of current installed capacity. Installed wind-power is projected to increase 5-fold by 2035 (to nearly 100GW) under the International Energy Agency’s New Policies scenario. However, renewable electricity generation is dependent upon the prevailing meteorology, which is strongly influenced by monsoon variability. Prosperity and widespread electrification are increasing the demand for air conditioning, especially during the warm summer. This study uses multi-decadal observations and meteorological reanalysis data to assess the impact of intraseasonal monsoon variability on the balance of electricity supply from wind-power and temperature-related demand in India. Active monsoon phases are characterised by vigorous convection and heavy rainfall over central India. This results in lower temperatures giving lower cooling energy demand, while strong westerly winds yield high wind-power output. In contrast, monsoon breaks are characterised by suppressed precipitation, with higher temperatures and hence greater demand for cooling, and lower wind-power output across much of India. The opposing relationship between wind-power supply and cooling demand during active phases (low demand, high supply) and breaks (high demand, low supply) suggests that monsoon variability will tend to exacerbate fluctuations in the so-called demand-net-wind (i.e., electrical demand that must be supplied from non-wind sources). This study may have important implications for the design of power systems and for investment decisions in conventional schedulable generation facilities (such as coal and gas) that are used to maintain the supply/demand balance. In particular, if it is assumed (as is common) that the generated wind-power operates as a price-taker (i.e., wind farm operators always wish to sell their power, irrespective of price) then investors in conventional facilities will face additional weather-volatility through the monsoonal impact on the length and frequency of production periods (i.e. their load-duration curves).

Rural development and communication: a community media project in Uttar Pradesh (India)

Loaded with 16% of the world’s population, India is a challenged country. More than a third of its citizens live below the poverty line - on less than a dollar a day. These people have no proper electricity, no proper drinking water supply, no proper sanitary facilities and well over 40% are illiterates. More than 65% live in rural areas and 60% earn their livelihood from agriculture. Only a meagre 3.63% have access to telephone and less than 1% have access to a computer. Therefore, providing access to timely information on agriculture, weather, social, health care, employment, fishing, is of utmost importance to improve the conditions of rural poor. After some introductive chapters, whose function is to provide a comprehensive framework – both theoretical and practical – of the current rural development policies and of the media situation in India and Uttar Pradesh, my dissertation presents the findings of the pilot project entitled “Enhancing development support to rural masses through community media activity”, launched in 2005 by the Department of Mass Communication and Journalism of the Faculty of Arts of the University of Lucknow (U.P.) and by the local NGO Bharosa. The project scope was to involve rural people and farmers from two villages of the district of Lucknow (namely Kumhrava and Barhi Gaghi) in a three-year participatory community media project, based on the creation, implementation and use of a rural community newspaper and a rural community internet centre. Community media projects like this one have been rarely carried out in India because the country has no proper community media tradition: therefore the development of the project has been a challenge for the all stakeholders involved.

She, With a Warm Palm, the Skin Over My Spine

She, with a Warm Palm, the Skin over My Spine is a collection of sixnonfiction essays and three vignettes divided into two parts. The first part tells the stories of my great-grandmother, my grandmother and my mother, and is entitled Home; the second part is entitled Away and consists of travel writing set in Thailand, Egypt and India.

Language in Political Economy and Market Economy: A Case Study of India

The political philosophy underpinning the Indian Constitution is socialist economy in a multilingual political landscape. The Constitution grants some fundamental rights to all citizens regarding language and to linguistic and other minorities regarding education. It also obligates states to use many languages in school education. Restructuring the economy with free market as its pivot and the growing dominance of English in the information driven global economy give rise to policy changes in language use in education, which undermine the Constitutional provisions relating to language, though these changes reflect the manufactured consent of the citizens. This is made possible by the way the Constitution is interpreted by courts with regard to the fundamental rights of equality and non-discrimination when they apply to language. The unique property of language that it can be acquired, unlike other primordial attributes such as ethnicity or caste, comes into play in this interpretation. The result is that the law of the market takes over the law of the land.

Knowledge, beliefs, risk behaviors, and social skills for HIV/STD prevention in junior college students (grades 11--12) in Bombay, India

1230 year 11 and 12 college students, modal age 16 and 17, in three colleges in Bombay, India, were studied on sexual behaviors or risk of sexual behaviors, beliefs about sex, HIV/STD knowledge, perceived norms regarding sexual behaviors, and the relationships between social skills/anxieties in HIV/STD prevention and actual and anticipated sexual behaviors. A quantitative questionnaire examining HIV/STD risk behaviors, knowledge, attitudes and beliefs, and the AIDS Social Assertiveness Scale (ASAS) were administered to these 1230 college students. Data indicated that 8% of males and 1% of females had had sexual experience, but over one third were not sure at all of being able to abstain from sexual activity with either steady or casual partners. Perceived norms were slanted toward sexual abstinence for the majority of the sample. Knowledge of protective effects of condoms was high, although half of those who had had sex did not use condoms. Logistic regression showed knowledge was higher among males, those who believed it was OK to have sex with a steady partner and that they should not wait until they were older, those who believed that condoms should be used even if the partner is known, and those who believed it was acceptable to have multiple partners. Gender differences in sexual activity and beliefs about sexual activity showed males were less likely to believe in abstaining from sexual activity. The 5 scales of the ASAS were scored and compared on ANOVA on: those who had had sexual experience (HS), those who anticipated being unable to refuse sex (AS), and those who did not anticipate problems in refusing sex (DS). Those in the AS group had greater anxieties about refusing sexual or other risk behaviors than HS and DS groups. There were greater anxieties about dealing with condoms in the AS and DS groups compared with the HS group. Confiding sexual or HIV/STD-related problems to significant others was more anxiety-provoking for the AS group compared with the HS group, and the AS group were more anxious about interactions with people with HIV. Factor analysis produced the same 5 factors as those found in previous studies. Of these, condom interactions and confiding in significant others were most anxiety provoking, and condom interactions most variable based on demographic and attitudinal factors.^ This age group is appropriate for HIV/STD reduction education given the low rate of sexual activity but despite knowledge of the importance of condom use, social skills to apply this knowledge are lacking. Social skills training in sexual negotiations, condom negotiations, and confiding HIV/STD-related concerns to significant others should reduce the risks of Indian college students having unwanted or unprotected sex. ^

Volcanic Influence on European Summer Precipitation through Monsoons: Possible Cause for “Years without Summer”*

Strong tropical volcanic eruptions have significant effects on global and regional temperatures. Their effects on precipitation, however, are less well understood. Analyzing hydroclimatic anomalies after 14 strong eruptions during the last 400 years in climate reconstructions and model simulations, a reduction of the Asian and African summer monsoons and an increase of south-central European summer precipitation in the year following the eruption was found. The simulations provide evidence for a dynamical link between these phenomena. The weaker monsoon circulations weaken the northern branch of the Hadley circulation, alter the atmospheric circulation over the Atlantic–European sector, and increase precipitation over Europe. This mechanism is able to explain, for instance, the wet summer in parts of Europe during the “year without a summer” of 1816, which up to now has not been explained. This study underlines the importance of atmospheric teleconnections between the tropics and midlatitudes to better understand the regional climate response to stratospheric volcanic aerosols.

Ancient History as a Means of Transforming Colonial India in the Late-Eighteenth and Early-Nineteenth Centuries

This article focuses on the studies and discourses of mostly British scholars of the early colonial period belonging to two schools of thought. It shows how the studies of both schools – European orientalism and utilitarianism – were intricately connected to the political development of the emerging British paramountcy over the South Asian sub-continent, as both were looking for means of establishing and/or strengthening colonial rule. Nevertheless, the debate was not just a continuation of discussions in Europe. Whereas the ideas of the European Enlightenment had some influence, the transformation of the Mughal Empire and especially the idea of a decline of Muslim rule offered ample opportunities for understanding the early history of India either as some sort of “Golden Age,” as the orientalists and their indigenous supporters did, or as something static and degenerate, as the utilitarians did, and from which the population of sub-continent had to be saved by colonial rule and colonial values. Fearing the spread of the ideas of the French Revolution, the first group of British scholars sought to persuade the native elites of South Asia to take the lessons of their past for the future development of their homeland. Just as the classicists back in Europe, these scholars were convinced that large-scale explanations of the past could also teach political and moral lessons for the present although it was important to deal with the distant past in an empirical manner. The utilitarians on the other hand believed that India had to be saved from its own depravity through the English language and Western values, which amounted to nothing less than the modern transformation of the true Classical Age.

Technical Efficiency in Public and Private Sectors in India: Evidence from the Post-Reform Years

While India's state-owned enterprises are widely believed to be inefficient, there is a dearth of studies that document such inefficiency on any rigorous basis. Yet, since improvement in firm efficiency is one of the basic objectives of privatization, it is important to assess whether efficiency is indeed lower in the public sector than in the private sector. This paper compares the performance of state-owned enterprises with those of private sector firms in respect of technical efficiency. The comparison is made in eight different sectors over the period 1991-92 to 1998-99. We measure technical efficiency using the method of Data Envelopment Analysis. Judging by the average levels of technical efficiency, no conclusive evidence of superior performance on the part of the private sector is found.

Antibiotic susceptibility and resistance among bacterial enteropathogens isolated from international travelers to Mexico, Guatemala, and India, 2006--2008

The incidence rates of travelers' diarrhea (TD) have remained unchanged for the last fifty years. More recently, there have been increasing recommendations for self-initiated therapy and even prophylactic therapy for TD. There is no recent data on the in vitro activities of commonly used antibiotics for TD therapy and whether there have been any changes in susceptibilities over the last ten years. 456 enteropathogens were isolated from adult travelers to Mexico, India, and Guatemala between the years 2006 to 2008. MICs were determined for 10 different antimicrobials by the agar dilution method. Traditional antibiotics such as ampicillin, trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole, and doxycycline continue to show high levels of resistance. Current first line antibiotic agents including fluoroquinolones and azithromycin had significantly higher MICs when compared to 10 years ago and MIC90 levels were beyond the CSLI cutoffs for resistance. There were significant geographical differences in resistance patterns when comparing Central America with India. Entertoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) isolates were more resistant to ciprofloxacin (p=0.023), and levofloxacin (p=0.0078) in India; whereas, enteroaggregative Escherichia coli (EAEC) isolates from Central America showed more resistance. When compared to MICs of isolates 10 years prior, there was a four to ten-fold increase in MIC90s for ceftriaxone, ciprofloxacin, levofloxacin and azithromycin for both ETEC and EAEC. There were no significant changes in rifaximin MICs over the last ten years, which makes it a promising agent for TD. Rising MICs over time implicate the need for continuous surveillance of susceptibility patterns worldwide and for geography specific recommendations in TD therapy.^