A classe de distribuições de Panjer e a modelação do risco coletivo

O principal objetivo desta dissertação é analisar a classe de distribuições de Panjer, algumas das suas extensões e a utilização destas na modelação do risco coletivo. Inicialmente, são referidos alguns momentos históricos importantes no estudo da família de distribuições de Panjer e no desenvolvimento do modelo do risco coletivo. Apresentamos também alguns artigos publicados nos últimos vinte anos sobre estas temáticas. Depois, são apresentados os conceitos e instrumentos fundamentais na construção das extensões da família de Panjer e na construção recursiva das distribuições do modelo do risco coletivo. Tais conceitos e instrumentos incluem a função geradora de probabilidades, a transformada de Laplace, a mistura e modi cação de distribuições de probabilidade. Seguidamente, são caracterizadas as distribuições discretas pertencentes à classe de Panjer, distribuições essas denominadas de distribuições de contagem básicas, de nidas a recursão de Panjer e duas suas extensões e apresentadas as distribuições pertencentes a cada uma delas. Finalmente, é apresentado o modelo do risco coletivo, designadamente o modelo composto das indemnizações agregadas, cujas distribuições, neste caso, são construídas através do método recursivo. São também expostos dois métodos de construção de distribuições aritméticas. A dissertação termina com a dedução de alguns modelos particulares para o risco coletivo, obtidos com o auxílio dos programas informáticos Mathematica e R.

Modelação térmica e hidrodinâmica de condensadores para aplicação em sistema de recuperação de energia térmica de veículos automóveis

A recuperação da energia térmica do escape afigura-se como uma vertente com importância relevante para o aumento da eficiência energética dos motores de combustão interna, tendo benefícios em termos económicos e ambientais. O presente trabalho centra-se no estudo e dimensionamento do condensador a integrar num sistema de ciclo de Rankine, tendo-se optado pela seleção de um permutador de placas do tipo “chevron”. O permutador para efeitos de cálculo é dividido em três zonas distintas: i) pré-arrefecedor; ii) condensador e iii) sub-arrefecedor. O presente estudo apresenta uma revisão bibliográfica alargada para o coeficiente de transferência de calor por convecção e perda de carga associada ao escoamento. Para cada zona do permutador são utilizados três fluidos de trabalho distintos: água, etanol e R245fa. Para o fluido refrigerante considerou-se água. Tendo em conta a revisão bibliográfica efetuada, foram implementados modelos para a perda de carga e para a transferência de calor no permutador, atendendo à seleção do fluido de trabalho e ao fluido refrigerante. Os resultados obtidos permitiram verificar que a utilização do fluido de trabalho água, conduz a um condensador mais compacto. Por último é efetuada a otimização do sistema, mediante alteração da temperatura de funcionamento do permutador. Os resultados permitiram verificar a diminuição da temperatura de saída do fluido refrigerante possibilita: i) uma redução do volume do permutador; ii) uma diminuição da perda de carga associada.

A classe de distribuições de Panjer e a modelação do risco coletivo

O principal objetivo desta dissertação é analisar a classe de distribuições de Panjer, algumas das suas extensões e a utilização destas na modelação do risco coletivo. Inicialmente, são referidos alguns momentos históricos importantes no estudo da família de distribuições de Panjer e no desenvolvimento do modelo do risco coletivo. Apresentamos também alguns artigos publicados nos últimos vinte anos sobre estas temáticas. Depois, são apresentados os conceitos e instrumentos fundamentais na construção das extensões da família de Panjer e na construção recursiva das distribuições do modelo do risco coletivo. Tais conceitos e instrumentos incluem a função geradora de probabilidades, a transformada de Laplace, a mistura e modi cação de distribuições de probabilidade. Seguidamente, são caracterizadas as distribuições discretas pertencentes à classe de Panjer, distribuições essas denominadas de distribuições de contagem básicas, de nidas a recursão de Panjer e duas suas extensões e apresentadas as distribuições pertencentes a cada uma delas. Finalmente, é apresentado o modelo do risco coletivo, designadamente o modelo composto das indemnizações agregadas, cujas distribuições, neste caso, são construídas através do método recursivo. São também expostos dois métodos de construção de distribuições aritméticas. A dissertação termina com a dedução de alguns modelos particulares para o risco coletivo, obtidos com o auxílio dos programas informáticos Mathematica e R.

3D modelling of the transmissivity of granitic rocks surrounding the old Quinta do Bispo mine | Modelação 3D da transmissividade do maciço granítico envolvente à antiga mina da Quinta do Bispo

Apresenta-se uma metodologia para caracterizar a transmissividade dos Granitos Hercínicos e Metasedimentos do Complexo Xisto-Grauváquico do maciço envolvente e subjacente à antiga área mineira de urânio da Quinta do Bispo. Inicia-se com a modelação das litologias e grau de alteração a que se segue a simulação condicional da densidade de fracturação. No final, a densidade de fracturação é convertida num modelo 3D de transmissividade por relação com os resultados dos ensaios de bombagem. The purpose of this work is to present a methodology for characterizing the transmissivity of the Hercynian granites and complex schist–greywacke metasediment rocks surrounding and underlying the old Quinta do Bispo uranium mining site. The methodology encompasses modelling of lithologies and weathering levels, followed by a conditional simulation of fracture density. Fracture density is then converted into a 3D model of transmissivity via a relationship with pumping tests.

Modelação do cancro da mama na região do Alentejo

Estudos epidemiológicos são estudos estatísticos onde se procura relacionar ocorrências de eventos de saúde com uma ou várias causas específicas. A importância que os modelos epidemiológicos assumem hoje no estudo de doenças de foro oncológico, em particular no estabelecimento das suas etiologias, é incontornável. Segundo Ogden, J. (1999) o cancro é "um crescimento incontrolável de células anormais que produzem tumores chamados neoplasias". Estes tumores podem ter origem benigna (não se espalham pelo corpo) ou maligna (apresentam metastização de outros órgãos). Sendo uma doença actual, com uma elevada taxa de incidência em Portugal quando comparada com outras doenças (Instituto Nacional de Estatística- INE, 2009), aumentando esta taxa com a idade tal como refere Marques, L. (2003), podendo ocorrer o diagnóstico desta doença em qualquer idade. De acordo com INE (2000) pode dizer-se que o cancro está entre as três principais causas de morte em Portugal, registando-se um aumento progressivo do seu peso proporcional, sendo o cancro da mama o tipo de cancro mais comum entre as mulheres e uma das doenças com maior impacto na nossa sociedade. O objectivo principal deste trabalho é a estimação e modelação do risco de contrair uma doença de natureza não contagiosa e rara (neste caso, cancro da mama), usando dados da região do Alentejo. Pretende-se fazer um apanhado das metodologias mais empregues nesta área e aplicá-las na prática, com ênfase nos estudos caso-controlo e nos modelos lineares generalizados (GLM) - mais concretamente regressão logística. Os estudos caso-controlo são usados para identificar os factores que podem contribuir para uma condição médica, comparando indivíduos que têm essa condição (casos) com pacientes que não têm a condição, mas que de resto são semelhantes (controlos). Neste trabalho utilizou-se essa metodologia para estudar a associação entre o viver em ambiente rural/urbano e o cancro da mama. Tendo em conta que o objectivo principal deste estudo se prende com o estudo da relação entre variáveis, mais propriamente, análise de influência que uma ou mais variáveis (explicativas) têm sobre uma variável de interesse (resposta), para esse efeito são estudados os modelos lineares generalizados - GLM - unificados na mesma moldura teórica pela primeira vez por Nelder & Wedderburn (1972) - e, posteriormente aplicados ao conjunto de dados sobre cancro da mama na Região do Alentejo. O presente trabalho pretende assim, ser um contributo na identificação de factores de risco do cancro da mama na região do Alentejo. ABSTRACT: Epidemiological studies are statistical studies where attempts to relate occurrences of health events with one or more specific causes. The importance of epidemiological models that are far in the study of diseases of cancer forum, particularly in establishing their etiology, is inescapable. According to Ogden, J. (1999) cancer is "an incontrollable growth of abnormal cells that produce tumors called cancer". These tumors may be benign (not spread throughout the body) or malignant (show metastasis to other organs). Being a current illness with a high incidence rate in Portugal compared with the same respect to other diseases (National Statistics 1nstitute -1NE, 2009) having an increasing rate with age as mentioned Marques, L. (2003), and can possibly be diagnosed at any age. According to 1NE (2000) the cancer is among the top three causes of death in Portugal and there is a progressive increase of its proportional weight. Breast cancer is the most common form of cancer among women and the diseases with major impact in our society. The main objective of this work is to model and estimate the risk of contracting a non-contagious and rare disease (in this case, breast cancer), using data from the Alentejo region. It is intended to summarize some of the methodologies employed in this area and apply them in practice, with emphasis on case-control studies and generalized linear models (GLM) - more specifically the logistic regression. The case-control studies are used to identify factors that may contribute to a medical condition, comparing individuals who have this condition (cases) with patients who have not the condition but that are otherwise similar (controls). ln this work we used this methodology to study the association between living in a rural/urban and breast cancer. Given that the main objective of this study rather relates to the study of the relationship between variables to analyze the influence that one or more variables (explanatory) have on a variable (response), for this purpose we study the generalized linear models - GLM - first unified in the same theoretical framework by Nelder and Wedderburn (1972) and subsequently applied to the data set on breast cancer in the Alentejo region. This work intends to be a contribution in identifying risk factors for breast cancer in the Alentejo region.

A materialização da democracia em Jatai : um estudo da relação do poder publico com a comunidade jataiense na configuração da ação da superintendencia de esporte e lazer do municipio

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Mechanical properties and porosity of dental glass-ceramics hot-pressed at different temperatures

The objective of this work was to evaluate biaxial-flexural-strength (σf), Vickers hardness (HV), fracture toughness (K Ic), Young's modulus (E), Poisson's ratio (ν) and porosity (P) of two commercial glass-ceramics, Empress (E1) and Empress 2 (E2), as a function of the hot-pressing temperature. Ten disks were hot-pressed at 1065, 1070, 1075 and 1080 °C for E1; and at 910, 915, 920 and 925 °C for E2. The porosity was measured by an image analyzer software and s f was determined using the piston-on-three-balls method. K Ic and HV were determined by an indentation method. Elastic constants were determined by the pulse-echo method. For E1 samples treated at different temperatures, there were no statistical differences among the values of all evaluated properties. For E2 samples treated at different temperatures, there were no statistical differences among the values of σf, E, and ν, however HV and K Ic were significantly higher for 910 and 915 °C, respectively. Regarding P, the mean value obtained for E2 for 925 °C was significantly higher compared to other temperatures.

A Paradigm Shift in Predoctoral Dental Curricula in Brazil: Evaluating the Process of Change

In 2002, the Brazilian Ministry of Education approved the official curricular guidelines for undergraduate courses in Brazil to be adopted by the nation's 188 dental schools. In 2005-06, the Brazilian Dental Education Association (BDEA) promoted workshops in forty-eight of the schools to verify the degree of transformation of the curriculum based on these guidelines. Among the areas analyzed were course philosophy (variables were v1: knowledge production based on the needs of the Brazilian Public Health System [BPHS]; v2: health determinants; and v3: postgraduate studies and permanent education); pedagogical skills (v4: curricular structure; v5: changes in pedagogic and didactic skills; and v6: course program orientation); and dental practice scenarios (v7: diversity of the scenarios for training/learning; v8: academic health care centers opened to the BPHS; and v9: participation of students in health care delivery for the population). The subjects consisted of faculty members (n=711), students (n=228), and employees (n=14). The results showed an incipient degree of curriculum transformation. The degree of innovation was statistically different depending on the type of university (public or private) for variables I, 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7. Private schools reported a higher level of innovation than public institutions. Resistance to transforming the dental curriculum according to the official guidelines may be linked to an ideological conception that supports the private practice model, continues to have faculty members direct all classroom activities, and prevents students from developing an understanding of professional practice as targeted towards the oral health needs of all segments of society.

Annual growth rings in the mangrove Laguncularia racemosa (Combretaceae)

Stem discs from trees of known age were used to determine the periodic nature of the growth rings formed in Laguncularia racemosa and to describe the anatomical features of these rings. The growth rings were scarcely distinct on microscopic examination, but they were well distinguishable macroscopically, with alternating light brown and dark brown layers. Cross-dating analysis revealed the occurrence of annual growth rings in L. racemosa. The existence of annual growth rings in L. racemosa suggests that it may have great potential for dendrochronology and should encourage age-related studies on the dynamics of mangrove forests. These studies can be important for the evaluation of climate change impact on mangrove ecosystems, as well as for the analysis of effects related to climate variability on plant communities.

The relation of triceps surae surgical lengthening and crouch gait in patients with cerebral palsy

To investigate the effect of earlier triceps surae (TS) surgical lengthening at knee kinematics in the stance phase in patients with cerebral palsy (CP). One thousand and thirty-nine participants from an eligible total of 1750 children with CP were referred to gait analysis laboratory from January 2000 to April 2007. Inclusion criteria were the diagnosis of diparetic spastic CP levels I to III (GMFCS) and complete kinematics documentation. Patients with an asymmetrical knee pattern at kinematics and with different types of TS management among sides were excluded. The patients were divided into two groups according to the mean minimum knee flexion (MMKF) in stance phase: group A (n = 253) MMKF >= 30 degrees and group B (n = 786) MMKF less than 30 degrees. For each group, the occurrence of following procedures for TS in the past: (i) earlier surgery, (ii) gastrocnemius lengthening (zone I), (iii) gastrocnemius and soleus lengthening (zone II), and (iv) calcaneous tendon lengthening (zone III), was investigated. A chi(2) test was applied to check if the number of procedures performed was different between groups. The level of significance was defined as P value of less than 0.05. The number of patients with no earlier surgeries at TS was higher in group B (51.8%) than in group A (39.1%), and this difference was significant (P<0.01). In addition, the number of procedures at the calcaneous tendon was more elevated in group A (36.8%) than in group B (27%), and this finding was statistically significant as well (P<0.02). The percentage of surgical lengthening at zones I and II was very similar between the groups A and B. This study has shown that patients without earlier surgical procedures at TS are more susceptible to reach better extension of the knees in the stance phase. Patients in a crouch gait had a higher number of calcaneous tendon lengthening performed in the past than patients with a more normal knee extension in the stance phase. J Pediatr Orthop B 19:226-230 (C) 2010 Wolters Kluwer Health vertical bar Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Factors associated with pelvic asymmetry in transverse plane during gait in patients with cerebral palsy

The purpose of this study was to describe the patterns of pelvic rotational asymmetry in the transverse plane and identify the possible factors related to this problem. One thousand and forty-five patients with cerebral palsy (CP) and complete documentation in the gait laboratory were reviewed in a retrospective study. Pelvic asymmetry in the transverse plane was observed in 52.7% of the patients; and to identify the possible causes of pelvic retraction, clinical (Thomas test, popliteal angle, and gastrocnemius tightness) and dynamic parameters (mean rotation of the hip in stance, minimum hip flexion, minimum knee flexion, and peak ankle dorsiflexion) were evaluated. The association between these parameters and pelvic retraction was assessed statistically. The results showed that 75.7% of patients with asymmetric pattern of the pelvis had clinical diagnosis of diplegic spastic CP. Among the patients with asymmetrical CP, the most common pattern was pelvic retraction on the affected side. The relationship between pelvic retraction and internal hip rotation was stronger in patients with asymmetrical diplegic CP than in those with hemiplegic (P<0.001) or symmetrical diplegic CP (P=0.014). All of the patients exhibited a significant association among clinical parameters (Thomas test, popliteal angle, and gastrocnemius tightness) and pelvic retraction. In conclusion, pelvic retraction seems to be a multifactorial problem, and the etiology can change according to topographic classification, which must be taken into account during the decision-making process in patients with CP. J Pediatr Orthop B 18:320-324 (C) 2009 Wolters Kluwer Health vertical bar Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Is pain relief equally efficacious and free of side effects with repeated doses of oral sucrose in preterm neonates?

The aim of the present study was to examine the efficacy and potential side effects of repeated doses of oral sucrose for pain relief during procedures in NICU. Thirty-three preterm neonates were randomly allocated in blind fashion into two groups, the sucrose group (SG = 17) and the control group (CG = 16). The responses of neonates to pain and distress were assessed during blood collection on four consecutive assessment (ass.) days. For the first assessment, the neonates did not receive any solution before the blood collection procedure. During the next three days, the SG received oral sucrose (25%; 0.5 ml/kg) and the CG received sterile water, 2 min before each minor acute painful procedure. The neonates were evaluated during blood collection each morning. The assessment was divided into five phases: Baseline (BL), Antisepsis (A), Puncture (P), Dressing (D), and Recovery (R). The neonates` facial activity (NFCS), behavioral state, and heart rate were evaluated. The data analysis used cut-off scores for painful and distressful responses. No side effects of using sucrose were detected. There were significantly fewer SG neonates with facial actions signaling pain than CG neonates in P (ass.2) and in A (ass.3). We found significantly fewer SG neonates in the awake state than CG neonates in P (ass.2 and ass.4). There were significantly fewer SG neonates crying during A (ass.2), P (ass.2 and ass.4), and D (ass.3). There was no statistical difference between-groups for physiological response. The efficacy of sucrose was maintained for pain relief in preterm neonates with no side effects. (C) 2007 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Occurrence of Sarcocystis falcatula in Captive Psittacine Birds in Brazil

Thirty-eight captive psittacine birds housed in a bird park in Foz do Iguacu, Parana, Brazil, died within a 15-month period as a result of infection with Sarcocystis falcatula. Although fatalities affected 16 species of psittacine birds, mortality was highest in Old World species, which were most susceptible to the pulmonary form of sarcocystosis. Along with the pathologic findings of this disease outbreak, a review of the pathophysiology of sarcosporidiosis is presented.

Effect of ion-exchange temperature on mechanical properties of a dental porcelain

The objective of this study was to determine the influence of different ion-exchange temperatures on the biaxial flexural strength (sigma(f)), hardness (HV) and indentation fracture resistance (K(IF)) of a dental porcelain. Disk-shaped specimens were divided into five groups (n = 10) and submitted to an ion-exchange procedure using KNO(3) paste for 15 min in the following temperatures (degrees C); (I) 430; (II) 450; (III) 470; (IV) 490; (V) 510; and control (no ion exchange). The value of sigma(f) was determined in artificial saliva at 37 degrees C. The values of HV and K(IF) were obtained using 3 Vickers indentations in each specimen (19.6 N). Results showed that ion exchange increases significantly the properties of the material as compared to the control and no significant differences were found among the temperatures tested for any of the properties studied. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd and Techna Group S.r.l. All rights reserved.

Effect of ion exchange on strength and slow crack growth of a dental porcelain

Objectives. To determine the effect of ion exchange on slow crack growth (SCG) parameters (n, stress corrosion susceptibility coefficient, and sigma(f0), scaling parameter) and Weibull parameters (m, Weibull modulus, and sigma(0), characteristic strength) of a dental porcelain. Methods. 160 porcelain discs were fabricated according to manufacturer`s instructions, polished through 1 mu m and divided into two groups: GC (control) and GI (submitted to an ion exchange procedure using a KNO(3) paste at 470 degrees C for 15 min). SCG parameters were determined by biaxial flexural strength test in artificial saliva at 37 degrees C using five constant stress rates (n =10). 20 specimens of each group were tested at 1 MPa/s to determine Weibull parameters. The SPT diagram was constructed using the least-squares fit of the strength data versus probability of failure. Results. Mean values of m and sigma(0) (95% confidence interval), n and sigma(f0) (standard deviation) were, respectively: 13.8 (10.1-18.8) and 60.4 (58.5 - 62.2), 24.1 (2.5) and 58.1 (0.01) for GC and 7.4 (5.3 -10.0) and 136.8 (129.1-144.7), 36.7 (7.3) and 127.9 (0.01) for GI. Fracture stresses (MPa) calculated using the SPT diagram for lifetimes of 1 day, 1 year and 10 years (at a 5% failure probability) were, respectively, 31.8, 24.9 and 22.7 for GC and 71.2, 60.6 and 56.9 for GI. Significance. For the porcelain tested, the ion exchange process improved strength and resistance to SCG, however, the material`s reliability decreased. The predicted fracture stress at 5% failure probability for a lifetime of 10 years was also higher for the ion treated group. (C) 009 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.