Institutional Infrastructure to Support 'Super Growth' in Kenya: Governance Thresholds, Reversion Rates and Economic Development

Kenya Growth Vision 2030 proposes policy and institutional reforms that make it possible for the country to achieve development status of a middle income country by 2030. This paper outlines the institutional framework necessary to achieve ÈSuper Growth,É which describes the character of growth required to meet targets stipulated in the Vision. The paper provides evidence confirming the importance of improving the quality of governance to the achievement of the Vision. The paper also demonstrates that the country is characterized by a high probability of reverting to poor governance. It is argued that, to achieve super growth, the country must attain an institutional tipping point which associates with low reversion rates to weaker institutions. The paper provides suggestions for institutional reforms that result in the achievement of an institutional tipping point and super growth.

Human Capital Externalities and Private Returns to Education in Kenya

We use micro data to analyse the effect of human capital externality on earnings and private returns to education. The earnings equations are estimated using the OLS method for a sample of full-time workers. The results show that human capital has a positive effect on earnings, indicating that an increase in education benefits all workers. However, men benefit more from women's education than the women do from men's. The effects of human capital externality on private returns to schooling are shown to vary substantially between rural and urban areas and across levels of the education system.

An assessment of the nutritional status of orphaned adolescents living in Nyanza Province, Kenya

Increasing numbers of children and adolescents are becoming vulnerable or orphaned due to the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Nyanza Province, Kenya. Research indicates food security remains a top concern for those caring for these children or adolescents. This study was a examined thinness, stunting, and perceptions about food availability in adolescents ages 10-17 years in Nyanza Province. No evidence was found suggesting orphaned adolescents experience greater amounts of stunting or thinness over non-orphaned adolescents in the province. Orphans did not perceive less available food in their households. Instead, predictors of thinness, stunting, or low perceptions of food availability included age, household facilities, perceptions of equal or unequal treatment in the household, and perceptions about the household's ability to provide them with basic needs. Findings suggest interventions aimed at decreasing malnutrition focus less on orphaned versus non-orphaned adolescents, but they should focus on adolescents made vulnerable due to lower socioeconomic status. ^

Benthic respiration and physical oceanography on two contrasting continental margins in the western Indian Ocean: the Yemen-Somali upwelling region and the margin off Kenya

During the Netherlands Indian Ocean Project (NIOP, 1992-1993) sediment community oxygen consumption (SCOC) was measured on two continental margins in the Indian Ocean with different productivity: the productive upwelling region off Yemen-Somalia and the supposedly less productive Kenyan margin, which lacks upwelling. The two margins also differ in terms of river input (Kenya) and the more severe oxygen minimum in the Arabian Sea. Simultaneously with SCOC, distributions of benthic biomass and phytodetritus were studied. Our expectation was that benthic processes in the upwelling margin of the Arabian Sea would be relatively enhanced as a result of the higher productivity. On the Kenyan margin, SCOC (range 1-36 mmol/m**2/d) showed a clear decrease with increasing water depth, and little temporal variation was detected between June and December. Highest SCOC values of this study were recorded at 50 m depth off Kenya, with a maximum of 36 mmol/m**2/d in the northernmost part. On the margin off Yemen-Somalia, SCOC was on average lower and showed little downslope variation, 1.8-5.7 mmol/m**2/d, notably during upwelling, when the zone between 70 and 1700 m was covered with low O2 water (10-50 µM). After cessation of upwelling, SCOC at 60 m depth off Yemen increased from 5.7 to 17.6 mmol/m**2/d concurrently with an increase of the near-bottom O2 concentration (from 11 to 153 µM), suggesting a close coupling between SCOC and O2 concentration. This was demonstrated in shipboard cores in which the O2 concentration in the overlying water was raised after the cores were first incubated under in situ conditions (17 µM O2). This induced an immediate and pronounced increase of SCOC. Conversely, at deeper stations permanently within the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ), SCOC showed little variation between monsoon periods. Hence, organic carbon degradation in sediments on a large part of the Yemen slope appears hampered by the oxygen deficiency of the overlying water. Macrofauna biomass and the pooled biomass of smaller organisms, estimated by the nucleic acid content of the sediment, had comparable ranges in the two areas in spite of more severe suboxic conditions in the Arabian Sea. At the Kenyan shelf, benthic fauna (macro- and meiofauna) largely followed the spatial pattern of SCOC, i.e. high values on the northern shelf-upper slope and a downslope decrease. On the Yemen-Somali margin the macrofauna distribution was more erratic. Nucleic acids displayed no clear downslope trend on either margin owing to depressed values in the OMZ, perhaps because of adverse effects of low O2 on small organisms (meiofauna and microbes). Phytodetritus distributions were different on the two margins. Whereas pigment levels decreased downslope along the Kenya margin, the upper slope off Yemen (800 m) had a distinct accumulation of mainly refractory carotenoid pigments, suggesting preservation under low 02. Because the accumulations of Corg and pigments on the Yemen slope overlap only partly, we infer a selective deposition and preservation of labile particles on the upper slope, whereas refractory material undergoes further transport downslope.

Map of Lewis-Glacier - Mt. Kenya 1983 (pdf 600 kB)

In February of 1983 a new terrestrial photogrammetric survey of Lewis Glacier (0° 9' S) has been made, from which the present topographic map has been produced in a scale of 1:5000. Simultaneously a survey of 1963 was evaluated giving a basis for computations of area and volume changes over the 20 year period: Lewis Glacier has lost 22 % of its area and 50 % of its volume. Based on maps and field observations of moraines 10 different stages were identified. Changes of area and volume can be determined for the periods after 1890, two older, undated stages are presumed to be of Little Ice Age-origin. Moderate losses from 1890 to 1920 were followed by strong, uninterrupted retreat up to present. In this respect Lewis Glacier behaves as all other equatorial glaciers that were closer examined. Compared to alpine glaciers the development was similar up to 1950. In the following years, however, the glaciers of the Alps gained mass and advanced while Lewis Glacier experienced its strongest losses from 1974 to 1983.

The Experience of the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) : Political Parties in Kenya from 1991 to 2007

This paper first examines splits and mergers among Kenya’s political parties (and inner-party factions) from the restoration of a multi-party system in 1991 until 2007, before the turbulent 10th general elections were conducted. It then considers what functions “political parties” have in Kenya with special reference to the period since 2002, the year in which President Moi announced his intention to retire. A look back at NARC’s five years of rule reveals that, although it succeeded in changing the government, NARC, as a “political party,” remained throughout an organization without any real substance. The paper looks at (1) NARC’s de facto split after its overwhelming win in the ninth general election, (2) malfunctions of the anti-defection laws that were introduced in the 1960s, and (3) Kenya’s election rules that require candidates to be nominated by registered political parties in general elections. The paper proceeds to argue that as a result of the operation of these three elements, Kenya’s political parties, and especially the victorious coalition sides, tend to end up being nothing more than temporary vehicles for political elites angling for post-election posts.

Kenya's 2007 election crisis

On 27 December 2007, the Republic of Kenya held its tenth general election since independence. The ballot-related proceedings went as planned up to and including the vote count, providing grounds for optimism for a largely peaceful transfer of power. However, after the official declaration by the Electoral Commission of Kenya late in the afternoon of 30 December that the presidential election had been won by the incumbent, Mwai Kibaki (from Central Province and a Kikuyu), Kenya entered into a period of deep crisis. How might we best understand this great turbulence, which was unprecedented in post-independence Kenya? Perhaps the answer lies in the sudden defeat of the opposition's presidential candidate, Raila Odinga from Nyanza Province and a Luo, who had been widely expected to win. With the post-election upheaval as the context, and looking at the situation from the standpoint of political history, this paper will offer an analysis of trends in Kenya's politics since 2002.