La instrumentalización de procedimientos democráticos en Irak tras la caída de Sadam Husein: tensión entre legalidad y legitimidad (2003-2010)

Esta investigación tiene como objetivo evidenciar la tensión entre legalidad y legitimidad, a raíz de la intervención de Estados Unidos en Irak en el año 2003. Dicha tensión es el resultado de la implementación de procedimientos democráticos que promovieron cambios legales en el gobierno iraquí. Sin embargo, fue la instrumentalización de tales procedimientos lo que generó una falta de legitimidad del gobierno iraquí por parte de algunos sectores sociales, debido a los intereses económicos, políticos y sociales que tenían aquellos grupos que detentaban el poder. La investigación ofrece un análisis sobre Irak bajo los conceptos de democracia formal, democracia sustancial, legalidad y legitimidad, con el propósito de comprender de manera detallada el tipo de democracia que se estableció en Irak y las tensiones generadas en la sociedad iraquí.

¿“Primavera árabe” o reconfiguración imperial?: esperanzas y límites de la movilización social en el Medio Oriente (Coyuntura)

El presente artículo no pretende aportar respuestas definitivas a las preguntas formuladas, menos alimentar pronósticos. Busca, de manera crítica, fomentar el planteamiento de nuevas interrogaciones que contribuyan a un acercamiento científico, es decir anti-mediático, respecto de fenómenos presentes en la actualidad del Medio Oriente. ¿La fuerza espontánea de la movilización social logrará superar la inercia de las dinámicas imperiales que ritmaron la historia política del Medio Oriente? ¿Podrá romper las cadenas del círculo vicioso de la maldición de la abundancia? Estas preguntas quedan enteras. Sin embargo, una posible respuesta no se verá en la mal llamada “primavera árabe” un fin en sí, sino el comienzo de un despertar colectivo. El fortalecimiento de las capacidades organizativas y movilizadoras de las masas populares del Medio Oriente constituye, sin duda, un primer paso fundamental para el arranque de un proceso histórico nuevo, dominado por los afanes de emancipación.

Preparing for a post-Assad Syria: What role for the European Union? CEPS Commentary, 2 August 2012

In this CEPS Commentary, Steven Blockmans notes that a prolonged period of instability lies ahead for Syria, with an on-going risk of spill-over effects affecting the entire region. The author argues that the EU’s plans for a post-Assad Syria should extend beyond the half-hearted responses to the monumental changes that have ripped through other parts of the Arab world. In recognition of the geostrategic shifts in the Middle East and the Gulf, and pursuant to the obligation imposed upon it by the Lisbon Treaty, the EU should plan for the creation of a regional space of shared security. Such a plan would fit well into the current efforts to revamp the European Security Strategy.

The Gulf Cooperation Council as a New Regional Power: Time for the EU to Propose a Strategic Partnership. Bruges Regional Integration & Global Governance Papers 3/2012, November 2012

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is a de facto regional power in the Arab world. Its role has been crucial in some of the outcomes of the Arab Spring. The GCC countries have been very pragmatic in dealing with the uprisings, avoiding any revolutionary spill-over throughout the Gulf region. This paper examines to what extent the policies of the European Union (EU) in the Gulf have changed since the beginning of the Arab Spring. It argues that despite the calls by the European Parliament and by the High Representative Baroness Ashton to improve the relationship, the EU’s support for a new policy in the Gulf after the Arab Spring is stalling, and little new or concrete has been achieved. The paper concludes that the Union needs a reinforced partnership that merges the various EU policies in the region into a single strategic partnership with the Arab countries.

Impact of Tibetan Orography and Heating on the Summer Flow over Asia

The influence on the summer flow over Asia of both the orographic and thermal forcing of the Tibetan Plateau is investigated using a sequence of idealised experiments with a global primitive equation model. The zonally averaged flow is prescribed and both realistic and idealised orography and heating are used. There is some similarity between the responses to the two forcings when applied separately. The upper tropospheric Tibetan anticyclone is predominantly forced by the heating but also weakly by the orography. Below this, both forcings tend to give air descending in an equatorward anticyclonic circulation down the isentropes to the west and rising in a similar poleward circulation to the east. However the heating-only response has a strong ascending southwesterly flow that is guided around the south and south-east of the orography when it is included. On the northern side, the westerly flow over the orography gives ascent on the upslope and descent on the downslope. It is found that heating over the Plateau leads to a potential vorticity (PV) minimum and that if it is sufficiently strong the flow is unstable, producing a quasi-biweekly oscillation. During this oscillation the Tibetan anticyclone changes between a single centre over the southwestern side of the Plateau and a split/double structure with centres over China and the Middle East. These characteristics are similar to observed variability in the region. Associated with this quasi-biweekly oscillation are significant variations in the strength of the ascent over the Plateau and the Rossby wave pattern over the North Pacific. The origin of the variability is instability associated with the zonally extended potential vorticity PV minimum on a θ-surface, as proposed by Hsu and Plumb (2000). This minimum is due to the tendency to reduce the PV above the heating over the Plateau and to advection by the consequent anticyclone of high PV around from the east and low PV to the west. The deep convection to the south and southeast of the Plateau tends to suppress the quasi-biweekly oscillation because the low PV produced above it acts to reduce the meridional PV gradient reversal. The occurrence of the oscillation depends on the relative magnitude of the heating in the two regions.

Utility of wind catchers for nocturnal ventilation

Wind catcher systems have been employed in buildings in the Middle East for many centuries and they are known by different names in different parts of the region. Recently there has been an increase in the application of this approach for natural ventilation and passive cooling in the UK and other countries. This paper presents the results of experimental wind tunnel and smoke visualisation testing, combined with CFD modelling, to investigate the performance of the wind catcher. For this purpose, a full-scale commercial system was connected to a test room and positioned centrally in an open boundary wind tunnel. Because much ventilation design involves the use of computational fluid dynamics, the measured performance of the system was also compared against the results of CFD analysis. Configurations included both a heated and unheated space to determine the impact of internal heat sources on airflow rate. Good comparisons between measurement and CFD analysis were obtained. Measurements showed that sufficient air change could be achieved to meet both air quality needs and passive cooling.

Trends in the start of the wet season over Africa

A quarter of a century of daily rainfall data from the Global Telecommunications System are used to define the temporal and spatial variability of the start of the wet season over Africa and surrounding extreme south of Europe and parts of the Middle East. From 1978 to 2002, the start of the wet season arrived later in the year for the majority of the region, as time progressed. In some parts of the continent, there was an annual increase in the start date of up to 4 days per year. On average, the start of the wet season arrived 9–21 days later from 1978 to 2002, depending on the threshold used to define the start of the rains (varying from 10–30 mm over 2 days, with no dry period in the following 10 days). It is noted that the inter-annual variability of the start of the wet season is high with the range of start dates varying on average from 116 to 142 days dependent on the threshold used to determine the start date. These results may have important implications for agriculturists on all levels (from the individual farmer to those responsible for regional food supply), as knowledge of potential future climate changes starts to play an increasingly important role in the agricultural decision-making process, such as sowing and harvesting times.

Desert dust deposition on Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus Mountains, Russia in 2009-2012 as recorded in snow and shallow ice core: high-resolution "provenancing", transport patterns, physical properties and soluble ionic composition

A record of dust deposition events between 2009 and 2012 on Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus Mountains derived from a snow pit and a shallow ice core is presented for the first time for this region. A combination of isotopic analysis, SEVIRI red-green-blue composite imagery, MODIS atmospheric optical depth fields derived using the Deep Blue algorithm, air mass trajectories derived using the HYSPLIT model and analysis of meteorological data enabled identification of dust source regions with high temporal (hours) and spatial (cf. 20–100 km) resolution. Seventeen dust deposition events were detected; fourteen occurred in March–June, one in February and two in October. Four events originated in the Sahara, predominantly in north-eastern Libya and eastern Algeria. Thirteen events originated in the Middle East, in the Syrian Desert and northern Mesopotamia, from a mixture of natural and anthropogenic sources. Dust transportation from Sahara was associated with vigorous Saharan depressions, strong surface winds in the source region and mid-tropospheric south-westerly flow with daily winds speeds of 20–30 m s−1 at 700 hPa level and, although these events were less frequent, they resulted in higher dust concentrations in snow. Dust transportation from the Middle East was associated with weaker depressions forming over the source region, high pressure centered over or extending towards the Caspian Sea and a weaker southerly or south-easterly flow towards the Caucasus Mountains with daily wind speeds of 12–18 m s−1 at 700 hPa level. Higher concentrations of nitrates and ammonium characterise dust from the Middle East deposited on Mt. Elbrus in 2009 indicating contribution of anthropogenic sources. The modal values of particle size distributions ranged between 1.98 μm and 4.16 μm. Most samples were characterised by modal values of 2.0–2.8 μm with an average of 2.6 μm and there was no significant difference between dust from the Sahara and the Middle East.

High-resolution provenance of desert dust deposited on Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus in 2009–2012 using snow pit and firn core records

The first record of dust deposition events on Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus Mountains derived from a snow pit and a shallow firn core is presented for the 2009–2012 period. A combination of isotopic analysis, SEVIRI red-greenblue composite imagery, MODIS atmospheric optical depth fields derived using the Deep Blue algorithm, air mass trajectories derived using the HYSPLIT model and analyses of meteorological data enabled identification of dust source regions with high temporal (hours) and spatial (ca. 20–100 km) resolution. Seventeen dust deposition events were detected; fourteen occurred in March–June, one in February and two in October. Four events originated in the Sahara, predominantly in northeastern Libya and eastern Algeria. Thirteen events originated in the Middle East, in the Syrian Desert and northern Mesopotamia, from a mixture of natural and anthropogenic sources. Dust transportation from Sahara was associated with vigorous Saharan depressions, strong surface winds in the source region and mid-tropospheric southwesterly flow with daily winds speeds of 20–30 m s−1 at 700 hPa level. Although these events were less frequent than those originating in the Middle East, they resulted in higher dust concentrations in snow. Dust transportation from the Middle East was associated with weaker depressions forming over the source region, high pressure centred over or extending towards the Caspian Sea and a weaker southerly or southeasterly flow towards the Caucasus Mountains with daily wind speeds of 12–18 m s−1 at 700 hPa level. Higher concentrations of nitrates and ammonium characterised dust from the Middle East deposited on Mt. Elbrus in 2009 indicating contribution of anthropogenic sources. The modal values of particle size distributions ranged between 1.98 µm and 4.16 µm. Most samples were characterised by modal values of 2.0– 2.8 µm with an average of 2.6 µm and there was no signifi- cant difference between dust from the Sahara and the Middle East.

Factors influencing the use of antitumoral chemotherapy in the South East of England

Influences on the use of chemotherapy for the treatment of cancer within the South East region of England for patients diagnosed with colorectal, lung, breast and prostate cancer were investigated. The variables investigated as possibly influencing the selection of chemotherapy were the sex of the patients, their age, the year of diagnosis, the cancer site, the cancer stage, the index of multiple deprivation (IMD) and the cancer network of residence. Logistic regression used to adjust the proportion receiving chemotherapy in relation to other variables considered showed significant differences in the proportion of patients receiving chemotherapy between different cancer sites and different networks. There was also a highly significant trend seen in use of chemotherapy over time; the adjusted proportion of patients receiving chemotherapy increasing from 10.6% in 1993 to 24.3% in 2002. Age, stage and cancer site seemed to have the most influence on the use of chemotherapy.

The impacts of climate change across the globe: a multi-sectoral assessment

The overall global-scale consequences of climate change are dependent on the distribution of impacts across regions, and there are multiple dimensions to these impacts.This paper presents a global assessment of the potential impacts of climate change across several sectors, using a harmonised set of impacts models forced by the same climate and socio-economic scenarios. Indicators of impact cover the water resources, river and coastal flooding, agriculture, natural environment and built environment sectors. Impacts are assessed under four SRES socio-economic and emissions scenarios, and the effects of uncertainty in the projected pattern of climate change are incorporated by constructing climate scenarios from 21 global climate models. There is considerable uncertainty in projected regional impacts across the climate model scenarios, and coherent assessments of impacts across sectors and regions therefore must be based on each model pattern separately; using ensemble means, for example, reduces variability between sectors and indicators. An example narrative assessment is presented in the paper. Under this narrative approximately 1 billion people would be exposed to increased water resources stress, around 450 million people exposed to increased river flooding, and 1.3 million extra people would be flooded in coastal floods each year. Crop productivity would fall in most regions, and residential energy demands would be reduced in most regions because reduced heating demands would offset higher cooling demands. Most of the global impacts on water stress and flooding would be in Asia, but the proportional impacts in the Middle East North Africa region would be larger. By 2050 there are emerging differences in impact between different emissions and socio-economic scenarios even though the changes in temperature and sea level are similar, and these differences are greater in 2080. However, for all the indicators, the range in projected impacts between different climate models is considerably greater than the range between emissions and socio-economic scenarios.

Financing for development and middle income-countries: new challenges

Spanish version avalilable at the Library

Global economic developments, 1999

Includes bibliography

P-233-Biodiversity of mucosa associated microbiome of Crohn's disease patients living in middle western São Paulo State, Brazil

Background: The intestinal microbiome (IM) has extensively been studied in the search for a link of bacteria with the cause of Crohn`s disease (CD). The association might result from the action of a specific pathogen and/or an eventual imbalance in bacterial species composition of the gut. The innumerous virulence associated markers and strategies described for adherent and invasive Escherichia coli (AIEC) have made them putative candidate pathogens for CD. IM of CD patients shows dysbiosis, manifested by the proliferation of bacterial groups such as Enterobacteriaceae and reduction of others such as Lactobacillus and Bifidobacterium. The augmented bacterial population comprising of commensal and/or pathogenic organisms super stimulates the immune system, triggering the inflammatory reactions responsible for the clinical manifestations of the disease. Considering the role played by IM in CD and the multiple variables influencing its species composition, resulting in differences among populations, the objective of this study was to determine the bacterial biodiversity in the mucosa associated microbiome of CD patients from a population not previously subject to this analysis, living in the middle west region of Sao Paulo state. Methods: A total of 4 CD patients and 5 controls subjects attending the Botucatu Medical School of the Sao Paulo State University (UNESP) for routine colonoscopy and who signed an informed consent were included in the study. A number of 2 biopsies, one from the ileum and other from any part of the terminal colon, were taken from each subject and immediately frozen at -70[degrees]C until DNA purification. The bacterial biodiversity was assessed by next generation (ion torrent) sequencing of PCR amplicons of the ribosomal DNA 16S V6 region (16S V6 rDNA). The bacterial identification was performed at the genus level, by alignment of the generated DNA sequences with those available at the ribosomal database project (RDP) website. Results: The overall DNA sequence output was based on an average number of 526,427 reads per run, matching 50 bacterial genus 16SrDNA sequences available at the RDB website, and 22 non matching sequences. Over 95% of the sequences corresponded to taxa belonging to the major phyla: Firmicutes, Bacterioidetes, Proteobacteria and Actinobacteria. Irrespective of the intestinal site analyzed, no case-control differences could be observed in the prevalence of Actinobacteria and Firmicutes. The prevalence of Proteobacteria was higher (40%) in the biopsies of control subjects as compared to that of DC patients (16%). For Bacterioidetes, the higher prevalence was observed among DC patients (33% as opposed to 14,5% in controls). The significance for all comparisons considered a p value < 0,05 in a Chi2 test. No mucosal site specific differences could be observed in IM comparisons of CD and control subjects. Conclusions: The rise in the number of Bacterioidetes observed here among CD patients seems to be in agreement with most of studies published thus far. Yet, the reduction in the number of Proteobacteria along with an apparently unaltered population of Actinobacteria and Firmicutes, which include the so called "beneficial" organisms Bifidobacterium and Lactobacillus were rather surprising. These data suggest that the analyses on the role of IM in CD should consider the multiple variables that may influence its species composition.

Rimesse e sviluppo locale nel sistema migratorio del Golfo Persico

The thesis concerns, from an economic and institutional point of view, the migration process in connection with development issues, focusing on the Middle East and North Africa region. Adopting a south-south perspective of migration flows, which is focusing on migration from the Maghreb and Mashreq towards the GCC, the research focuses on the linkage between migration and local development (LED), considering the economic implication that temporary migration flows (trough physical and human capital accumulation) have for the labour exporting countries of the region. Since south-south migration flows are both temporary and skilled, the research points out that return migrants from the GCC can have a significant impact for the growth of recipient countries, as they transfer capital through remittances on regular basis and, once back, they can use human capital acquired abroad to promote economic initiatives. Starting from the descriptive analysis on international migration flows (from an historical to a systemic point of view), and focusing on the patterns of people movements in the Gulf Migration System and on the role remittances have in the region as a strategy for both household survival and local development, the research considers the economics of migrant remittances from a micro and macro perspective and the main direct and indirect effects that remittances have on the local communities. The review of the economic literature on international remittances and on local development shows how migration is an alternative strategy of financing local economic development (LED) especially for low-middle income countries (among them the Maghreb countries). The linkage between return migration, remittances, human capital formation and the promotion of local development in the Egyptian case is the focus of the empirical investigation.