Comparison of snow data assimilation system with GPS reflectometry snow depth in the Western United States

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Análise dos indicadores biométricos e nutricionais da cultura da alface (Lactuca sativa L.) irrigada com água tratada magneticamente utilizando modelagem fuzzy

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Irrigação e Drenagem) - FCA

Sistema baseado em regras fuzzy do tipo Takagi-Sugeno aplicado a ecos de radares meteorológicos

Pós-graduação em Ciências Ambientais - Sorocaba

Estimativas da radiação difusa horária incidente em superfícies inclinadas com base na transmissividade atmosférica

Evaluated statistical equations estimates (based on radiometric fractions) of the hourly diffuse radiation incident on inclined surfaces for the North to 12.85, 22.85 and 32.85°, the climate and geographical conditions of Botucatu, SP. The database was generated from April/1998 to December/2007, with measures in the three tilted surfaces in different periods, but concomitant to the horizontal plane. In the validation of the equations were used indicative statistics MBE (mean absolute error), RMSE (square root mean square error) and index adjustment (d) for three inclinations and conditions of sky coverage. The increased angle of inclination of the surface led to increased scattering of hourly values for the coefficient of atmospheric transmissivity of diffuse radiation for inclined and horizontal surfaces. Estimates of diffuse radiation on the basis of hourly tilted horizontal global radiation occur for quadratic polynomial models, which adjust K'Dβ maximum values of between 0.14 and 0.30 for winter and summer when KTH varies between 0.40 and 0.66, indicating that energy, the highest values of diffuse radiation occur in partly cloudy sky conditions and / or partially open. The increase in atmospheric transmissivity decreases the performance of annual and monthly equations at all inclinations.

Bovine Tuberculosis in Swedish Farmed Deer: Detection and Control of the Disease

Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) was introduced into Swedish farmed deer herds in 1987. Epidemiological investigations showed that 10 deer herds had become infected (July 1994) and a common source of infection, a consignment of 168 imported farmed fallow deer, was identified (I). As trace-back of all imported and in-contact deer was not possible, a control program, based on tuberculin testing, was implemented in July 1994. As Sweden has been free from BTB since 1958, few practicing veterinarians had experience in tuberculin testing. In this test, result relies on the skill, experience and conscientiousness of the testing veterinarian. Deficiencies in performing the test may adversely affect the test results and thereby compromise a control program. Quality indicators may identify possible deficiencies in testing procedures. For that purpose, reference values for measured skin fold thickness (prior to injection of the tuberculin) were established (II) suggested to be used mainly by less experienced veterinarians to identify unexpected measurements. Furthermore, the within-veterinarian variation of the measured skin fold thickness was estimated by fitting general linear models to data (skin fold measurements) (III). The mean square error was used as an estimator of the within-veterinarian variation. Using this method, four (6%) veterinarians were considered to have unexpectedly large variation in measurements. In certain large extensive deer farms, where mustering of all animals was difficult, meat inspection was suggested as an alternative to tuberculin testing. The efficiency of such a control was estimated in paper IV and V. A Reed Frost model was fitted to data from seven BTB-infected deer herds and the spread of infection was estimated (< 0.6 effective contacts per deer and year) (IV). These results were used to model the efficiency of meat inspection in an average extensive Swedish deer herd. Given a 20% annual slaughter and meat inspection, the model predicted that BTB would be either detected or eliminated in most herds (90%) 15 years after introduction of one infected deer. In 2003, an alternative control for BTB in extensive Swedish deer herds, based on the results of paper V, was implemented.

Modeling the growth rate and lag time of different strains of Salmonella enterica and Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat lettuce

The growth parameters (growth rate, mu and lag time, lambda) of three different strains each of Salmonella enterica and Listeria monocytogenes in minimally processed lettuce (MPL) and their changes as a function of temperature were modeled. MPL were packed under modified atmosphere (5% O-2, 15% CO2 and 80% N-2), stored at 7-30 degrees C and samples collected at different time intervals were enumerated for S. enterica and L monocytogenes. Growth curves and equations describing the relationship between mu and lambda as a function of temperature were constructed using the DMFit Excel add-in and through linear regression, respectively. The predicted growth parameters for the pathogens observed in this study were compared to ComBase, Pathogen modeling program (PMP) and data from the literature. High R-2 values (0.97 and 0.93) were observed for average growth curves of different strains of pathogens grown on MPL Secondary models of mu and lambda for both pathogens followed a linear trend with high R2 values (>0.90). Root mean square error (RMSE) showed that the models obtained are accurate and suitable for modeling the growth of S. enterica and L monocytogenes in MP lettuce. The current study provides growth models for these foodborne pathogens that can be used in microbial risk assessment. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of multiple-input single-output single-user ultra-wideband systems with pre-distortion

This paper presents a performance analysis of a baseband multiple-input single-output ultra-wideband system over scenarios CM1 and CM3 of the IEEE 802.15.3a channel model, incorporating four different schemes of pre-distortion: time reversal, zero-forcing pre-equaliser, constrained least squares pre-equaliser, and minimum mean square error pre-equaliser. For the third case, a simple solution based on the steepest-descent (gradient) algorithm is adopted and compared with theoretical results. The channel estimations at the transmitter are assumed to be truncated and noisy. Results show that the constrained least squares algorithm has a good trade-off between intersymbol interference reduction and signal-to-noise ratio preservation, providing a performance comparable to the minimum mean square error method but with lower computational complexity. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Parametrização e avaliação do modelo DSSAT/Canegro para variedades brasileiras de cana-de-açúcar

O objetivo deste trabalho foi parametrizar e avaliar o modelo DSSAT/Canegro para cinco variedades brasileiras de cana-de-açúcar. A parametrização foi realizada a partir do uso de dados biométricos e de crescimento das variedades CTC 4, CTC 7, CTC 20, RB 86-7515 e RB 83-5486, obtidos em cinco localidades brasileiras. Foi realizada análise de sensibilidade local para os principais parâmetros. A parametrização do modelo foi feita por meio da técnica de estimativa da incerteza de probabilidade generalizada ("generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation", Glue). Para a avaliação das predições, foram utilizados, como indicadores estatísticos, o coeficiente de determinação (R2), o índice D de Willmott e a raiz quadrada do erro-médio (RMSE). As variedades CTC apresentaram índice D entre 0,870 e 0,944, para índice de área foliar, altura de colmo, perfilhamento e teor de sacarose. A variedade RB 83-5486 apresentou resultados similares para teor de sacarose e massa de matéria fresca do colmo, enquanto a variedade RB 86-7515 apresentou valores entre 0,665 e 0,873, para as variáveis avaliadas.

Estimating the monthly pCO2 distribution in the North Atlantic using a self-organizing neural network

[EN] Here we present monthly, basin-wide maps of the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) for the North Atlantic on a latitude by longitude grid for years 2004 through 2006 inclusive. The maps have been computed using a neural network technique which reconstructs the non-linear relationships between three biogeochemical parameters and marine pCO2. A self organizing map (SOM) neural network has been trained using 389 000 triplets of the SeaWiFSMODIS chlorophyll-a concentration, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis sea surface temperature, and the FOAM mixed layer depth. The trained SOM was labelled with 137 000 underway pCO2 measurements collected in situ during 2004, 2005 and 2006 in the North Atlantic, spanning the range of 208 to 437atm. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the neural network fit to the data is 11.6?atm, which equals to just above 3 per cent of an average pCO2 value in the in situ dataset. The seasonal pCO2 cycle as well as estimates of the interannual variability in the major biogeochemical provinces are presented and discussed. High resolution combined with basin-wide coverage makes the maps a useful tool for several applications such as the monitoring of basin-wide air-sea CO2 fluxes or improvement of seasonal and interannual marine CO2 cycles in future model predictions. The method itself is a valuable alternative to traditional statistical modelling techniques used in geosciences.

Advanced signal and receiver design for next generation OFDM systems

This thesis deal with the design of advanced OFDM systems. Both waveform and receiver design have been treated. The main scope of the Thesis is to study, create, and propose, ideas and novel design solutions able to cope with the weaknesses and crucial aspects of modern OFDM systems. Starting from the the transmitter side, the problem represented by low resilience to non-linear distortion has been assessed. A novel technique that considerably reduces the Peak-to-Average Power Ratio (PAPR) yielding a quasi constant signal envelope in the time domain (PAPR close to 1 dB) has been proposed.The proposed technique, named Rotation Invariant Subcarrier Mapping (RISM),is a novel scheme for subcarriers data mapping,where the symbols belonging to the modulation alphabet are not anchored, but maintain some degrees of freedom. In other words, a bit tuple is not mapped on a single point, rather it is mapped onto a geometrical locus, which is totally or partially rotation invariant. The final positions of the transmitted complex symbols are chosen by an iterative optimization process in order to minimize the PAPR of the resulting OFDM symbol. Numerical results confirm that RISM makes OFDM usable even in severe non-linear channels. Another well known problem which has been tackled is the vulnerability to synchronization errors. Indeed in OFDM system an accurate recovery of carrier frequency and symbol timing is crucial for the proper demodulation of the received packets. In general, timing and frequency synchronization is performed in two separate phases called PRE-FFT and POST-FFT synchronization. Regarding the PRE-FFT phase, a novel joint symbol timing and carrier frequency synchronization algorithm has been presented. The proposed algorithm is characterized by a very low hardware complexity, and, at the same time, it guarantees very good performance in in both AWGN and multipath channels. Regarding the POST-FFT phase, a novel approach for both pilot structure and receiver design has been presented. In particular, a novel pilot pattern has been introduced in order to minimize the occurrence of overlaps between two pattern shifted replicas. This allows to replace conventional pilots with nulls in the frequency domain, introducing the so called Silent Pilots. As a result, the optimal receiver turns out to be very robust against severe Rayleigh fading multipath and characterized by low complexity. Performance of this approach has been analytically and numerically evaluated. Comparing the proposed approach with state of the art alternatives, in both AWGN and multipath fading channels, considerable performance improvements have been obtained. The crucial problem of channel estimation has been thoroughly investigated, with particular emphasis on the decimation of the Channel Impulse Response (CIR) through the selection of the Most Significant Samples (MSSs). In this contest our contribution is twofold, from the theoretical side, we derived lower bounds on the estimation mean-square error (MSE) performance for any MSS selection strategy,from the receiver design we proposed novel MSS selection strategies which have been shown to approach these MSE lower bounds, and outperformed the state-of-the-art alternatives. Finally, the possibility of using of Single Carrier Frequency Division Multiple Access (SC-FDMA) in the Broadband Satellite Return Channel has been assessed. Notably, SC-FDMA is able to improve the physical layer spectral efficiency with respect to single carrier systems, which have been used so far in the Return Channel Satellite (RCS) standards. However, it requires a strict synchronization and it is also sensitive to phase noise of local radio frequency oscillators. For this reason, an effective pilot tone arrangement within the SC-FDMA frame, and a novel Joint Multi-User (JMU) estimation method for the SC-FDMA, has been proposed. As shown by numerical results, the proposed scheme manages to satisfy strict synchronization requirements and to guarantee a proper demodulation of the received signal.

Rainfall spatial predictions: a two-part model and its assessment

Spatial prediction of hourly rainfall via radar calibration is addressed. The change of support problem (COSP), arising when the spatial supports of different data sources do not coincide, is faced in a non-Gaussian setting; in fact, hourly rainfall in Emilia-Romagna region, in Italy, is characterized by abundance of zero values and right-skeweness of the distribution of positive amounts. Rain gauge direct measurements on sparsely distributed locations and hourly cumulated radar grids are provided by the ARPA-SIMC Emilia-Romagna. We propose a three-stage Bayesian hierarchical model for radar calibration, exploiting rain gauges as reference measure. Rain probability and amounts are modeled via linear relationships with radar in the log scale; spatial correlated Gaussian effects capture the residual information. We employ a probit link for rainfall probability and Gamma distribution for rainfall positive amounts; the two steps are joined via a two-part semicontinuous model. Three model specifications differently addressing COSP are presented; in particular, a stochastic weighting of all radar pixels, driven by a latent Gaussian process defined on the grid, is employed. Estimation is performed via MCMC procedures implemented in C, linked to R software. Communication and evaluation of probabilistic, point and interval predictions is investigated. A non-randomized PIT histogram is proposed for correctly assessing calibration and coverage of two-part semicontinuous models. Predictions obtained with the different model specifications are evaluated via graphical tools (Reliability Plot, Sharpness Histogram, PIT Histogram, Brier Score Plot and Quantile Decomposition Plot), proper scoring rules (Brier Score, Continuous Rank Probability Score) and consistent scoring functions (Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Error addressing the predictive mean and median, respectively). Calibration is reached and the inclusion of neighbouring information slightly improves predictions. All specifications outperform a benchmark model with incorrelated effects, confirming the relevance of spatial correlation for modeling rainfall probability and accumulation.

Validation of a modified AVHRR aerosol optical depth retrieval algorithm over Central Europe

The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) carried on board the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Meteorological Operational Satellite (MetOp) polar orbiting satellites is the only instrument offering more than 25 years of satellite data to analyse aerosols on a daily basis. The present study assessed a modified AVHRR aerosol optical depth τa retrieval over land for Europe. The algorithm might also be applied to other parts of the world with similar surface characteristics like Europe, only the aerosol properties would have to be adapted to a new region. The initial approach used a relationship between Sun photometer measurements from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and the satellite data to post-process the retrieved τa. Herein a quasi-stand-alone procedure, which is more suitable for the pre-AERONET era, is presented. In addition, the estimation of surface reflectance, the aerosol model, and other processing steps have been adapted. The method's cross-platform applicability was tested by validating τa from NOAA-17 and NOAA-18 AVHRR at 15 AERONET sites in Central Europe (40.5° N–50° N, 0° E–17° E) from August 2005 to December 2007. Furthermore, the accuracy of the AVHRR retrieval was related to products from two newer instruments, the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) on board the Environmental Satellite (ENVISAT) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board Aqua/Terra. Considering the linear correlation coefficient R, the AVHRR results were similar to those of MERIS with even lower root mean square error RMSE. Not surprisingly, MODIS, with its high spectral coverage, gave the highest R and lowest RMSE. Regarding monthly averaged τa, the results were ambiguous. Focusing on small-scale structures, R was reduced for all sensors, whereas the RMSE solely for MERIS substantially increased. Regarding larger areas like Central Europe, the error statistics were similar to the individual match-ups. This was mainly explained with sampling issues. With the successful validation of AVHRR we are now able to concentrate on our large data archive dating back to 1985. This is a unique opportunity for both climate and air pollution studies over land surfaces.

Effect of pulsatility on the mathematical modeling of rotary blood pumps

In this study, the effect of time derivatives of flow rate and rotational speed was investigated on the mathematical modeling of a rotary blood pump (RBP). The basic model estimates the pressure head of the pump as a dependent variable using measured flow and speed as predictive variables. Performance of the model was evaluated by adding time derivative terms for flow and speed. First, to create a realistic working condition, the Levitronix CentriMag RBP was implanted in a sheep. All parameters from the model were physically measured and digitally acquired over a wide range of conditions, including pulsatile speed. Second, a statistical analysis of the different variables (flow, speed, and their time derivatives) based on multiple regression analysis was performed to determine the significant variables for pressure head estimation. Finally, different mathematical models were used to show the effect of time derivative terms on the performance of the models. In order to evaluate how well the estimated pressure head using different models fits the measured pressure head, root mean square error and correlation coefficient were used. The results indicate that inclusion of time derivatives of flow and speed can improve model accuracy, but only minimally.

Sonic log prediction in carbonates

This work is conducted to study the complications associated with the sonic log prediction in carbonate logs and to investigate the possible solutions to accurately predict the sonic logs in Traverse Limestone. Well logs from fifty different wells were analyzed to define the mineralogy of the Traverse Limestone by using conventional 4-mineral and 3-mineral identification approaches. We modified the conventional 3-mineral identification approach (that completely neglects the gamma ray response) to correct the shale effects on the basis of gamma ray log before employing the 3-mineral identification. This modification helped to get the meaningful insight of the data when a plot was made between DGA (dry grain density) and UMA (Photoelectric Volumetric Cross-section) with the characteristic ternary diagram of the quartz, calcite and dolomite. The results were then compared with the 4-mineral identification approach. Contour maps of the average mineral fractions present in the Traverse Limestone were prepared to see the basin wide mineralogy of Traverse Limestone. In the second part, sonic response of Traverse Limestone was predicted in fifty randomly distributed wells. We used the modified time average equation that accounts for the shale effects on the basis of gamma ray log, and used it to predict the sonic behavior from density porosity and average porosity. To account for the secondary porosity of dolomite, we subtracted the dolomitic fraction of clean porosity from the total porosity. The pseudo-sonic logs were then compared with the measured sonic logs on the root mean square (RMS) basis. Addition of dolomite correction in modified time average equation improved the results of sonic prediction from neutron porosity and average porosity. The results demonstrated that sonic logs could be predicted in carbonate rocks with a root mean square error of about 4μsec/ft. We also attempted the use of individual mineral components for sonic log prediction but the ambiguities in mineral fractions and in the sonic properties of the minerals limited the accuracy of the results.

Prediction of soil organic carbon for Ethiopian highlands using soil spectroscopy

Soil spectroscopy was applied for predicting soil organic carbon (SOC) in the highlands of Ethiopia. Soil samples were acquired from Ethiopia’s National Soil Testing Centre and direct field sampling. The reflectance of samples was measured using a FieldSpec 3 diffuse reflectance spectrometer. Outliers and sample relation were evaluated using principal component analysis (PCA) and models were developed through partial least square regression (PLSR). For nine watersheds sampled, 20% of the samples were set aside to test prediction and 80% were used to develop calibration models. Depending on the number of samples per watershed, cross validation or independent validation were used.The stability of models was evaluated using coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), and the ratio performance deviation (RPD). The R2 (%), RMSE (%), and RPD, respectively, for validation were Anjeni (88, 0.44, 3.05), Bale (86, 0.52, 2.7), Basketo (89, 0.57, 3.0), Benishangul (91, 0.30, 3.4), Kersa (82, 0.44, 2.4), Kola tembien (75, 0.44, 1.9),Maybar (84. 0.57, 2.5),Megech (85, 0.15, 2.6), andWondoGenet (86, 0.52, 2.7) indicating that themodels were stable. Models performed better for areas with high SOC values than areas with lower SOC values. Overall, soil spectroscopy performance ranged from very good to good.