Convergence of the mass-transport steepest descent scheme for the sub-critical Patlak-Keller-Segel model

Variational steepest descent approximation schemes for the modified Patlak-Keller-Segel equation with a logarithmic interaction kernel in any dimension are considered. We prove the convergence of the suitably interpolated in time implicit Euler scheme, defined in terms of the Euclidean Wasserstein distance, associated to this equation for sub-critical masses. As a consequence, we recover the recent result about the global in time existence of weak-solutions to the modified Patlak-Keller-Segel equation for the logarithmic interaction kernel in any dimension in the sub-critical case. Moreover, we show how this method performs numerically in one dimension. In this particular case, this numerical scheme corresponds to a standard implicit Euler method for the pseudo-inverse of the cumulative distribution function. We demonstrate its capabilities to reproduce easily without the need of mesh-refinement the blow-up of solutions for super-critical masses.

Calculation of the variance in surveys of the economic climate

Public opinion surveys have become progressively incorporated into systems of official statistics. Surveys of the economic climate are usually qualitative because they collect opinions of businesspeople and/or experts about the long-term indicators described by a number of variables. In such cases the responses are expressed in ordinal numbers, that is, the respondents verbally report, for example, whether during a given trimester the sales or the new orders have increased, decreased or remained the same as in the previous trimester. These data allow to calculate the percent of respondents in the total population (results are extrapolated), who select every one of the three options. Data are often presented in the form of an index calculated as the difference between the percent of those who claim that a given variable has improved in value and of those who claim that it has deteriorated. As in any survey conducted on a sample the question of the measurement of the sample error of the results has to be addressed, since the error influences both the reliability of the results and the calculation of the sample size adequate for a desired confidence interval. The results presented here are based on data from the Survey of the Business Climate (Encuesta de Clima Empresarial) developed through the collaboration of the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (Institut d’Estadística de Catalunya) with the Chambers of Commerce (Cámaras de Comercio) of Sabadell and Terrassa.

The first report of the main vector of visceral leishmaniasis in America, Lutzomyia longipalpis (Lutz & Neiva) (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a widespread zoonosis in Brazil and, up to now, there has been no record of the main vector of its agent, Lutzomyia longipalpis, in the Southern Region. Due to the diagnosis of VL in a dog in October 2008 in the city of São Borja, in the southernmost Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul, a collection of phlebotomines was undertaken to detect the presence of the vector Lu. longipalpis. The captures were carried out with CDC light traps on three consecutive nights in 2008. A total of 39 specimens of Lu. longipalpis were captured, thereby increasing the knowledge of the geographical distribution of this important vector.

Meaning of the λ parameter of skew–normal and log–skew normal distributions in fluid geochemistry

The literature related to skew–normal distributions has grown rapidly in recent yearsbut at the moment few applications concern the description of natural phenomena withthis type of probability models, as well as the interpretation of their parameters. Theskew–normal distributions family represents an extension of the normal family to whicha parameter (λ) has been added to regulate the skewness. The development of this theoreticalfield has followed the general tendency in Statistics towards more flexible methodsto represent features of the data, as adequately as possible, and to reduce unrealisticassumptions as the normality that underlies most methods of univariate and multivariateanalysis. In this paper an investigation on the shape of the frequency distribution of thelogratio ln(Cl−/Na+) whose components are related to waters composition for 26 wells,has been performed. Samples have been collected around the active center of Vulcanoisland (Aeolian archipelago, southern Italy) from 1977 up to now at time intervals ofabout six months. Data of the logratio have been tentatively modeled by evaluating theperformance of the skew–normal model for each well. Values of the λ parameter havebeen compared by considering temperature and spatial position of the sampling points.Preliminary results indicate that changes in λ values can be related to the nature ofenvironmental processes affecting the data

Aalenian to Cenomanian Radiolaria of the Bermeja Complex (Puerto Rico) and Pacific origin of radiolarites on the Caribbean Plate

The study of the radiolarian ribbon chert is a key in determining the origins of associated Mesozoic oceanic terranes and may help to achieve a general agreement regarding the basic principles on the evolution of the Caribbean Plate. The Bermeja Complex of Puerto Rico, which contains serpentinized peridotite, altered basalt, amphibolite, and chert (Mariquita Chert Formation), is one of these crucial oceanic terranes. The radiolarian biochronology presented in this work is mainly based by correlation on the biozonations of Baumgartner et al. (1995) and O'Dogherty (1994) and indicates an early Middle Jurassic to early Late Cretaceous (late Bajocian-early Callovian to late early Albian-early middle Cenomanian) age. The illustrated assemblages contain about 120 species, of which one is new (Pantanellium karinae), and belonging to about 50 genera. A review of the previous radiolarian published works on the Mariquita Chert Formation and the results of this study suggest that this formation ranges in age from Middle Jurassic to early Late Cretaceous (late Aalenian to early-middle Cenomanian) and also reveal a possible feature of the Bermeja Complex, which is the younging of radiolarian cherts from north to south, evoking a polarity of accretion. On the basis of a currently exhaustive inventory of the radiolarite facies s.s. on the Caribbean Plate, a re-examination of the regional distribution of Middle Jurassic sediments associated with oceanic crust, and a paleoceanographic argumentation on the water currents, we come to the conclusion that the radiolarite and associated Mesozoic oceanic terranes of the Caribbean Plate are of Pacific origin. Eventually, a discussion on the origin of the cherts of the Mariquita Formation illustrated by Middle Jurassic to middle Cretaceous geodynamic models of the Pacific and Caribbean realms bring up the possibility that the rocks of the Bermeja Complex are remnants of two different oceans.

Inference with the lognormal distribution

Several estimators of the expectation, median and mode of the lognormal distribution are derived. They aim to be approximately unbiased, efficient, or have a minimax property in the class of estimators we introduce. The small-sample properties of these estimators are assessed by simulations and, when possible, analytically. Some of these estimators of the expectation are far more efficient than the maximum likelihood or the minimum-variance unbiased estimator, even for substantial samplesizes.

Understanding the ecological niche to elucidate spatial strategies of the southernmost Tupinambis lizards

Understanding factors that shape ranges of species is central in evolutionary biology. Species distribution models have become important tools to test biogeographical, ecological and evolutionary hypotheses. Moreover, from an ecological and evolutionary perspective, these models help to elucidate the spatial strategies of species at a regional scale. We modelled species distributions of two phylogenetically, geographically and ecologically close Tupinambis species (Teiidae) that occupy the southernmost area of the genus distribution in South America. We hypothesized that similarities between these species might have induced spatial strategies at the species level, such as niche differentiation and divergence of distribution patterns at a regional scale. Using logistic regression and MaxEnt we obtained species distribution models that revealed interspecific differences in habitat requirements, such as environmental temperature, precipitation and altitude. Moreover, the models obtained suggest that although the ecological niches of Tupinambis merianae and T. rufescens are different, these species might co-occur in a large contact zone. We propose that niche plasticity could be the mechanism enabling their co-occurrence. Therefore, the approach used here allowed us to understand the spatial strategies of two Tupinambis lizards at a regional scale.

Biased diffusion in confined media: Test of the Fick-Jacobs approximation and validity criteria

We study biased, diffusive transport of Brownian particles through narrow, spatially periodic structures in which the motion is constrained in lateral directions. The problem is analyzed under the perspective of the Fick-Jacobs equation, which accounts for the effect of the lateral confinement by introducing an entropic barrier in a one-dimensional diffusion. The validity of this approximation, based on the assumption of an instantaneous equilibration of the particle distribution in the cross section of the structure, is analyzed by comparing the different time scales that characterize the problem. A validity criterion is established in terms of the shape of the structure and of the applied force. It is analytically corroborated and verified by numerical simulations that the critical value of the force up to which this description holds true scales as the square of the periodicity of the structure. The criterion can be visualized by means of a diagram representing the regions where the Fick-Jacobs description becomes inaccurate in terms of the scaled force versus the periodicity of the structure.

Novel method to estimate the phenotypic variation explained by genome-wide association studies reveals large fraction of the missing heritability.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are conducted with the promise to discover novel genetic variants associated with diverse traits. For most traits, associated markers individually explain just a modest fraction of the phenotypic variation, but their number can well be in the hundreds. We developed a maximum likelihood method that allows us to infer the distribution of associated variants even when many of them were missed by chance. Compared to previous approaches, the novelty of our method is that it (a) does not require having an independent (unbiased) estimate of the effect sizes; (b) makes use of the complete distribution of P-values while allowing for the false discovery rate; (c) takes into account allelic heterogeneity and the SNP pruning strategy. We applied our method to the latest GWAS meta-analysis results of the GIANT consortium. It revealed that while the explained variance of genome-wide (GW) significant SNPs is around 1% for waist-hip ratio (WHR), the observed P-values provide evidence for the existence of variants explaining 10% (CI=[8.5-11.5%]) of the phenotypic variance in total. Similarly, the total explained variance likely to exist for height is estimated to be 29% (CI=[28-30%]), three times higher than what the observed GW significant SNPs give rise to. This methodology also enables us to predict the benefit of future GWA studies that aim to reveal more associated genetic markers via increased sample size.

Insights into the biogeographical history of the Lower Guinea Forest Domain: evidence for the role of refugia in the intraspecific differentiation of Aucoumea klaineana.

Determining the biogeographical histories of rainforests is central to our understanding of the present distribution of tropical biodiversity. Ice age fragmentation of central African rainforests strongly influenced species distributions. Elevated areas characterized by higher species richness and endemism have been postulated to be Pleistocene forest refugia. However, it is often difficult to separate the effects of history and of present-day ecological conditions on diversity patterns at the interspecific level. Intraspecific genetic variation could yield new insights into history, because refugia hypotheses predict patterns not expected on the basis of contemporary environmental dynamics. Here, we test geographically explicit hypotheses of vicariance associated with the presence of putative refugia and provide clues about their location. We intensively sampled populations of Aucoumea klaineana, a forest tree sensitive to forest fragmentation, throughout its geographical range. Characterizing variation at 10 nuclear microsatellite loci, we were able to obtain phylogeographic data of unprecedented detail for this region. Using Bayesian clustering approaches, we demonstrated the presence of four differentiated genetic units. Their distribution matched that of forest refugia postulated from patterns of species richness and endemism. Our data also show differences in diversity dynamics at leading and trailing edges of the species' shifting distribution. Our results confirm predictions based on refugia hypotheses and cannot be explained on the basis of present-day ecological conditions.

Clinical Utility of the 2 New Scales of the Health of the Nation Outcome Scales for Children and Adolescents (HoNOSCA): A Naturalistic, Prospective Study in a Psychiatric Unit for Adolescents.

OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to assess the clinical usefulness of the emotional symptoms (Emo) and externalizing problems (Ext) scales compared with the Total score on the Health of the Nation Outcome Scales for Children and Adolescents (HoNOSCA). METHODS: The HoNOSCA was rated at admission and discharge for 260 adolescent inpatients. The primary outcomes assessed were (a) the sensitivity of the 3 HoNOSCA scores to clinical improvement; and (b) the between diagnoses discriminative value of these scores. RESULTS: Analyses of variances [2 (time: admission vs. discharge) ×5 (diagnostic groups)] revealed a main effect of time for the 3 scores, a main effect of the diagnostic group for the Total and Ext scores, and an interaction effect between time and diagnosis for the Emo score. A moderate correlation was observed between the change in Ext and Emo scores between admission and discharge. DISCUSSION: These 2 new scales of the HoNOSCA demonstrated good clinical utility and the ability to assess different aspects of clinical improvements. A significant discriminative value of both scores was observed. SIGNIFICANT OUTCOMES: The clinical utility of the 2 new scales on the HoNOSCA was established. These 2 new scales provided a sensitive measure of clinical outcome for assessing improvement between admission and discharge on a psychiatric inpatient unit for adolescents, regardless of diagnostic group, and captured additional information about clinical improvements. Adolescents with psychosis and conduct disorders presented with higher externalizing symptoms than those with other disorders, as rated on the HoNOSCA, at admission and discharge. The Emo score differentiated between clinical improvement in patients with psychosis versus eating disorders. LIMITATIONS: The sample in this study represented a homogeneous population of adolescent inpatients, so that further research is needed before these findings can be generalized to outpatients. In addition, the small number of patients in some diagnostic groups did not allow for their inclusion in some of the statistical analyses.

Assessment of the water chemistry and the macroinvertebrate community changes produced during the creation of the new Llobregat river mouth (Barcelona, NE Spain)

In 1999, a set of coordinated projects and investments whose principal objective was to transform Barcelona into one of the main distribution points of southern Europe resulted in the relocation of the Llobregat River mouth. The mouth was relocated by draining the old river mouth and constructing a new one. The aim of this study was to characterise the physico-chemical properties and the aquatic macroinvertebrate communities of the new river mouth and to monitor the changes experienced by the estuarine environment during its creation. A sampling point was established in the river 1.8 km upstream from its connection with the new mouth, and two sampling points were established in the new mouth. Samples of water and macroinvertebrates were collected every two months from May 2004 to June 2005, covering the periods before (from May to September 2004) and after (from September 2004 to June 2005) the new mouth was connected to the river and the sea. During the period before its connection to the river and the sea, the new mouth was functionally similar to a lagoon, with clear waters, charophytes and a rich invertebrate community. After the connection was completed, seawater penetrated the river mouth and extended to the connection point with the river (approximately 3.9 km upstream). An increase in conductivity from 4-6 mS cm 1 to 24-30 mS cm 1 caused important changes in the macroinvertebrate community of the new mouth. An initial defaunation was followed by a colonisation of the new mouth by brackish-water and marine invertebrate species. Due to its design (which allows the penetration of the sea) and the decreased discharge from the lower part of the Llobregat River, the new mouth has become an arm of the sea

Problems of the randomization test for AB designs

N = 1 designs imply repeated registrations of the behaviour of the same experimental unit and the measurements obtained are often few due to time limitations, while they are also likely to be sequentially dependent. The analytical techniques needed to enhance statistical and clinical decision making have to deal with these problems. Different procedures for analysing data from single-case AB designs are discussed, presenting their main features and revising the results reported by previous studies. Randomization tests represent one of the statistical methods that seemed to perform well in terms of controlling false alarm rates. In the experimental part of the study a new simulation approach is used to test the performance of randomization tests and the results suggest that the technique is not always robust against the violation of the independence assumption. Moreover, sensitivity proved to be generally unacceptably low for series lengths equal to 30 and 40. Considering the evidence available, there does not seem to be an optimal technique for single-case data analysis

Evolution of the Helvetic shelf (Switzerland) during the Barremian-early Aptian : paleoenvironmental, paleogeographic and paleoceanographic controlling factors

The Early Cretaceous has experienced the development of large shallow-water carbonate platform in tropical and subtropical regions, favoured by exceptionally warm climatic conditions, optimal trophic conditions and a suitable tectonic and paleogeographic context. This period was also characterized by shorter intervals, in which the widespread deposition of marine sediments enriched in organic matter occurred ("oceanic anoxic episodes": OAE). This study focuses on the Barremian- Aptian interval, during which the Urgonian platform developed throughout the northern Tethyan passive margin. Due to the Alpine orogeny, sediments belonging to this platform - named locally Schrattenkalk Formation, are presently outcropping in the Helvetic Alps. This study aims to reconstruct the paleogeographic evolution of the Helvetic platform, and to define the environmental and oceanographic factors, which influenced its development. Several key episodes in the life of this platform have been identified: - The installation of the platform, covering hemipelagic sediments of the Drusberg Member, near the limit between the early and late Barremian. - The temporary change of carbonate production type during the basal Aptian, with the deposition of the Rawil Member. - And finally the definitive interruption of photozoan carbonate platform sedimentation in the study area, during the early Aptian. The sedimentological, biostratigraphical and chemostratigraphic (8I3C) data lead to the sequential subdivision of eleven sections and one core, located throughout the different Helvetic nappes of Switzerland. The sequence stratigraphie framework, initially defined for the Urgonian carbonate platform of the Vercors area (SE France), is confirmed in the Helvetic nappes, where the same number of sequences was observed. Many similarities between these two areas are put forward in this work. The sequence stratigraphie framework helped to highlight the installation of a bioclastic body, included in the Schrattenkalk Formation, since the middle Early Barremian (sequence B2). The age of the installation of the rudist-rich limestone, which corresponds to the Urgonian facies sensu stricto, is attributed to the late Barremian (maximum flooding surface of the sequence B3). This age coincides with the one determined in other northern Tethyan areas for the installation of the Urgonian platform. The results of this study show a strong tectonic control of the platform architecture, with the presence of syn-sedimentary faults in a perpendicular position to the progradation direction of the platform. The presence of these faults was highlighted by the study of the evolution of the microfacies distribution and by thickness variations in different areas. Sea level fluctuations also played an important role in the various life phases of the platform. Three major falls in sea level have been identified. A significant emersion of the proximal domain has been observed, involving an important drop of the relative sea level, leading to the exposure of the Drusberg Member hemipelagic series. A second major drop in sea level is identified near the Barremian-Aptian boundary, and a third is registered on the top of the Upper Schrattenkalk Member on the whole platform; it is associated with a karst affecting the underlying limestones to a depth of over 20 meters. This observation sheds new light on the conditions linked to the demise of Urgonian platform, which was strongly influenced by this phase of emersion.

EVALUATION OF THE POTENTIAL OF SEED RAIN AS AN ALTERNATIVE FOR FOREST RESTORATION IN PERMANENT PRESERVATION AREAS1

ABSTRACT The ecological restoration of degraded areas using seeds collected in forest remnants has shown significant results. This study was developed to verify the potential of seed rain to regenerate forest fragments of a Permanent Preservation Area (PPA) in the Apa River Basin which is located in the southwestern portion of the Mato Grosso do Sul state, Brazil. To develop the study, we installed 25 collectors measuring 1 m2 each, which were systematically distributed on an area of 1.5ha. Seed gathering was conducted in a monthly basis throughout the year of 2013. A total of 26.411 propagules were identified and distributed among 50 species, 45 genera and 32 families. In terms of the propagules distribution, 70.51% were identified as trees, 22.8% as lianas, 6.5% as shrubs, 0.1 as herbaceous, 0.05% as palm and 0.05% could not be classified. The value for the Shannon Diversity Index was (H') = 1.67 and the Pielou Evenness index was (J) = 0.42. These results indicate that the seeds rain has low species diversity with the abundance of a few species. The overall results suggest that seed rain can be a potential technique for restoration of the PPAs and other forested areas. However, it is necessary to enhance the diversity of tree species.