Forecast impact of targeted observations: sensitivity to observation error and proximity to steep orography

For a targeted observations case, the dependence of the size of the forecast impact on the targeted dropsonde observation error in the data assimilation is assessed. The targeted observations were made in the lee of Greenland; the dependence of the impact on the proximity of the observations to the Greenland coast is also investigated. Experiments were conducted using the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM), over a limited-area domain at 24-km grid spacing, with a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) scheme. Reducing the operational dropsonde observation errors by one-half increases the maximum forecast improvement from 5% to 7%–10%, measured in terms of total energy. However, the largest impact is seen by replacing two dropsondes on the Greenland coast with two farther from the steep orography; this increases the maximum forecast improvement from 5% to 18% for an 18-h forecast (using operational observation errors). Forecast degradation caused by two dropsonde observations on the Greenland coast is shown to arise from spreading of data by the background errors up the steep slope of Greenland. Removing boundary layer data from these dropsondes reduces the forecast degradation, but it is only a partial solution to this problem. Although only from one case study, these results suggest that observations positioned within a correlation length scale of steep orography may degrade the forecast through the anomalous upslope spreading of analysis increments along terrain-following model levels.

Reconstruction of gusty wind speed time series from autonomous data logger records

The collection of wind speed time series by means of digital data loggers occurs in many domains, including civil engineering, environmental sciences and wind turbine technology. Since averaging intervals are often significantly larger than typical system time scales, the information lost has to be recovered in order to reconstruct the true dynamics of the system. In the present work we present a simple algorithm capable of generating a real-time wind speed time series from data logger records containing the average, maximum, and minimum values of the wind speed in a fixed interval, as well as the standard deviation. The signal is generated from a generalized random Fourier series. The spectrum can be matched to any desired theoretical or measured frequency distribution. Extreme values are specified through a postprocessing step based on the concept of constrained simulation. Applications of the algorithm to 10-min wind speed records logged at a test site at 60 m height above the ground show that the recorded 10-min values can be reproduced by the simulated time series to a high degree of accuracy.

eRules: a modular adaptive classification rule learning algorithm for data streams

Advances in hardware and software in the past decade allow to capture, record and process fast data streams at a large scale. The research area of data stream mining has emerged as a consequence from these advances in order to cope with the real time analysis of potentially large and changing data streams. Examples of data streams include Google searches, credit card transactions, telemetric data and data of continuous chemical production processes. In some cases the data can be processed in batches by traditional data mining approaches. However, in some applications it is required to analyse the data in real time as soon as it is being captured. Such cases are for example if the data stream is infinite, fast changing, or simply too large in size to be stored. One of the most important data mining techniques on data streams is classification. This involves training the classifier on the data stream in real time and adapting it to concept drifts. Most data stream classifiers are based on decision trees. However, it is well known in the data mining community that there is no single optimal algorithm. An algorithm may work well on one or several datasets but badly on others. This paper introduces eRules, a new rule based adaptive classifier for data streams, based on an evolving set of Rules. eRules induces a set of rules that is constantly evaluated and adapted to changes in the data stream by adding new and removing old rules. It is different from the more popular decision tree based classifiers as it tends to leave data instances rather unclassified than forcing a classification that could be wrong. The ongoing development of eRules aims to improve its accuracy further through dynamic parameter setting which will also address the problem of changing feature domain values.

Reducing inconsistencies in point observations of maximum flood inundation level

Flood simulation models and hazard maps are only as good as the underlying data against which they are calibrated and tested. However, extreme flood events are by definition rare, so the observational data of flood inundation extent are limited in both quality and quantity. The relative importance of these observational uncertainties has increased now that computing power and accurate lidar scans make it possible to run high-resolution 2D models to simulate floods in urban areas. However, the value of these simulations is limited by the uncertainty in the true extent of the flood. This paper addresses that challenge by analyzing a point dataset of maximum water extent from a flood event on the River Eden at Carlisle, United Kingdom, in January 2005. The observation dataset is based on a collection of wrack and water marks from two postevent surveys. A smoothing algorithm for identifying, quantifying, and reducing localized inconsistencies in the dataset is proposed and evaluated showing positive results. The proposed smoothing algorithm can be applied in order to improve flood inundation modeling assessment and the determination of risk zones on the floodplain.

Mid-Holocene and glacial-maximum vegetation geography of the northern continents and Africa.

BIOME 6000 is an international project to map vegetation globally at mid-Holocene (6000 14C yr bp) and last glacial maximum (LGM, 18,000 14C yr bp), with a view to evaluating coupled climate-biosphere model results. Primary palaeoecological data are assigned to biomes using an explicit algorithm based on plant functional types. This paper introduces the second Special Feature on BIOME 6000. Site-based global biome maps are shown with data from North America, Eurasia (except South and Southeast Asia) and Africa at both time periods. A map based on surface samples shows the method’s skill in reconstructing present-day biomes. Cold and dry conditions at LGM favoured extensive tundra and steppe. These biomes intergraded in northern Eurasia. Northern hemisphere forest biomes were displaced southward. Boreal evergreen forests (taiga) and temperate deciduous forests were fragmented, while European and East Asian steppes were greatly extended. Tropical moist forests (i.e. tropical rain forest and tropical seasonal forest) in Africa were reduced. In south-western North America, desert and steppe were replaced by open conifer woodland, opposite to the general arid trend but consistent with modelled southward displacement of the jet stream. The Arctic forest limit was shifted slighly north at 6000 14C yr bp in some sectors, but not in all. Northern temperate forest zones were generally shifted greater distances north. Warmer winters as well as summers in several regions are required to explain these shifts. Temperate deciduous forests in Europe were greatly extended, into the Mediterranean region as well as to the north. Steppe encroached on forest biomes in interior North America, but not in central Asia. Enhanced monsoons extended forest biomes in China inland and Sahelian vegetation into the Sahara while the African tropical rain forest was also reduced, consistent with a modelled northward shift of the ITCZ and a more seasonal climate in the equatorial zone. Palaeobiome maps show the outcome of separate, independent migrations of plant taxa in response to climate change. The average composition of biomes at LGM was often markedly different from today. Refugia for the temperate deciduous and tropical rain forest biomes may have existed offshore at LGM, but their characteristic taxa also persisted as components of other biomes. Examples include temperate deciduous trees that survived in cool mixed forest in eastern Europe, and tropical evergreen trees that survived in tropical seasonal forest in Africa. The sequence of biome shifts during a glacial-interglacial cycle may help account for some disjunct distributions of plant taxa. For example, the now-arid Saharan mountains may have linked Mediterranean and African tropical montane floras during enhanced monsoon regimes. Major changes in physical land-surface conditions, shown by the palaeobiome data, have implications for the global climate. The data can be used directly to evaluate the output of coupled atmosphere-biosphere models. The data could also be objectively generalized to yield realistic gridded land-surface maps, for use in sensitivity experiments with atmospheric models. Recent analyses of vegetation-climate feedbacks have focused on the hypothesized positive feedback effects of climate-induced vegetation changes in the Sahara/Sahel region and the Arctic during the mid-Holocene. However, a far wider spectrum of interactions potentially exists and could be investigated, using these data, both for 6000 14C yr bp and for the LGM.

Reconstructing paleosalinity from δ18O: coupled model simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum, Last Interglacial and Late Holocene

Reconstructions of salinity are used to diagnose changes in the hydrological cycle and ocean circulation. A widely used method of determining past salinity uses oxygen isotope (δOw) residuals after the extraction of the global ice volume and temperature components. This method relies on a constant relationship between δOw and salinity throughout time. Here we use the isotope-enabled fully coupled General Circulation Model (GCM) HadCM3 to test the application of spatially and time-independent relationships in the reconstruction of past ocean salinity. Simulations of the Late Holocene (LH), Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and Last Interglacial (LIG) climates are performed and benchmarked against existing compilations of stable oxygen isotopes in carbonates (δOc), which primarily reflect δOw and temperature. We find that HadCM3 produces an accurate representation of the surface ocean δOc distribution for the LH and LGM. Our simulations show considerable variability in spatial and temporal δOw-salinity relationships. Spatial gradients are generally shallower but within ∼50% of the actual simulated LH to LGM and LH to LIG temporal gradients and temporal gradients calculated from multi-decadal variability are generally shallower than both spatial and actual simulated gradients. The largest sources of uncertainty in salinity reconstructions are found to be caused by changes in regional freshwater budgets, ocean circulation, and sea ice regimes. These can cause errors in salinity estimates exceeding 4 psu. Our results suggest that paleosalinity reconstructions in the South Atlantic, Indian and Tropical Pacific Oceans should be most robust, since these regions exhibit relatively constant δOw-salinity relationships across spatial and temporal scales. Largest uncertainties will affect North Atlantic and high latitude paleosalinity reconstructions. Finally, the results show that it is difficult to generate reliable salinity estimates for regions of dynamic oceanography, such as the North Atlantic, without additional constraints.

SBTX, a new toxic protein distinct from soyatoxin and other toxic soybean [Glycine max] proteins, and its inhibitory effect on Cercospora sojina growth

SBTX, a novel toxin from soybean, was purified by ammonium sulfate fractionation followed by chromatographic steps DEAE-Cellulose, CM-Sepharose and Superdex 200 HR fast-protein liquid chromatography (FPLC). Lethality of SBTX to mice (LD50 5.6 mg/kg) was used as parameter in the purification steps. SBTX is a 44-kDa basic glycoprotein composed of two polypeptide chains (27 and 17 kDa) linked by a disulfide bond. The N-terminal sequences of the 44 and 27 kDa chains were identical (ADPTFGFTPLGLSEKANLQIMKAYD), differing from that of 17 kDa (PNPKVFFDMTIGGQSAGRIVMEEYA). SBTX contains high levels of Glx, Ala, Asx, Gly and Lys and showed maximum absorption at 280 nm, epsilon(1 cm) (1%) of 6.3, and fluorescence emission in the 290-450nm range upon excitation at 280nm. The secondary structure content was 35% alpha-helix, 13% beta-strand and beta-sheet, 27% beta-turn, 25% unordered, and 1% aromatic residues. Immunological assays showed that SBTX was related to other toxic proteins, such as soyatoxin and canatoxin, and cross-reacted weekly with soybean trypsin inhibitor and agglutinin, but it was devoid of protease-inhibitory and hemagglutinating activities. The inhibitory effect of SBTX on growth of Cercospora sojina, fungus causing frogeye leaf spot in soybeans, was observed at 50 mu g/ml, concentration 112 times lesser than that found to be lethal to mice. This effect on phytopathogenic fungus is a potential attribute for the development of transgenic plants with enhanced resistance to pathogens. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Algorithms for Maximum Independent Set in Convex Bipartite Graphs

A bipartite graph G = (V, W, E) is convex if there exists an ordering of the vertices of W such that, for each v. V, the neighbors of v are consecutive in W. We describe both a sequential and a BSP/CGM algorithm to find a maximum independent set in a convex bipartite graph. The sequential algorithm improves over the running time of the previously known algorithm and the BSP/CGM algorithm is a parallel version of the sequential one. The complexity of the algorithms does not depend on |W|.

Expedient, accurate methods for the determination of the degree of substitution of cellulose carboxylic esters: Application of UV-vis spectroscopy (dye solvatochromism) and FTIR

Two techniques, namely UV-vis- and FTIR spectroscopy, have been employed in order to calculate the degree of substitution (DS) of cellulose carboxylic esters, including acetates, CAs, butyrates, CBs, and hexanoates, CHs. Regarding UV-vis spectroscopy, we have employed a novel approach, based on measuring the dependence of lambda(max) of the intra-molecular charge-transfer bands of polarity probes adsorbed on DS of the ester films (solvatochromism). Additionally, we have revisited the use of FTIR for DS determination. Several methods have been used in order to plot Beer`s law graph, namely: Absorption of KBr pellets, pre-coated with CA: reflectance (DRIFTS) of CAs-KBr solid-solid mixtures with, or without the use of 1.4-dicyanobenzene as an internal reference; reflectance of KBr powder pre-coated with CA. The methods indicated are simple, fast, and accurate, requiring much less ester than the titration method. The probe method is independent of the experimental variables examined. (c) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Competition of sicklepod, cassia obtusifolia l., densities on soybean, glycine max (l.) merr., at variable row distance

Competition studies with soybeans, Glycine max (L.) Merr. "Bragg." and sicklepod, Cassia obtusifolia L., were conducted at the Agricultural Research and Education Center of the University of Florida in Quincy, Florida. Two field experiments were established, one on May 22, 1975. and the other four weeks later, on June 19, 1975, to determine the competitive effects of various sicklepod densities and the influences of soybean row distances on weed dry matter, soybear plant characteristics, yield components and seed yield, and on soil nutrient content. Control, low, medium, and high sicklepod densities in the first experiment were O, 25,000, 53,000, and 77,000 p1ants/ha, respectively; while the second experiment presented control, low, medium, and high sicklepod densities of O, 36,000, 68,000, and 122,000 plants/ha, respectively. Three soybean row distance treatments were tested using a constant pattern of 90-, 60-, and 45-cm widths throughout the growing season. Three other treatments, evaluated in a variable patern, were initially seeded in 30-cm row widths. Five weeks after planting, an appropriate number of soybean rows were harvested from the 30"cm pattern to establish row distances of 90, 60, and 30-60 cm for the remainder of the season. ln the greenhouse a test was conducted to evaluate the effects af those variables on seed germination and seedling vigor for the next soybean generation. As a result of full-season sicklepod competition, soybean plants were less branched, set fewer leaves, and presented thinner stems as compared to the control. However, height of soybean plants was not affected by the presence of sicklepod. ln one of the two experiments, number of nodes decreased for soybeans under weed campetition. The yield components--number of pods; number of seeds, and seed yield per soybean plant--were all similarly reduced due to weed competition. Seeds per pod were decreased to a lesser extent. Soybean seed yields per unit area were significantly diminished by increasing levels af sicklepod ínfestation. While the control produced 3120 kg/ha, the sicklepod densities of 25,000, 53,000, and 77,000 plants/ha reduced seed yíelds 47, 65, and 73%, respectively. As soybean row distances decreased, number of branches, number of leaves, and stem diameter of soybeans decreased. However, the height of soybean plants increased with narrwing of row width. The components of seed yield--number of pods, number of seeds, and seed yield per soybean plant--diminished as row spacing was reduced. Maximum difference between row distances for these attributes was attained for soybean plants under weed-free conditions. Generally, as row width decreased, soybean seed yield per unit area increased. Specifically, soybear.s in 90-cm rows, either in constant or variable row pattern, yielded less than soybeans in 60- and 30-60-cm rows in the variable pattern. Soil contents of phosphorus, potassium, calcium, and magnesium were not affected by the various levels of sicklepod and soybean populalions. Neither the sicklepod densities nor the soybean row distances influenced seed germination and seedling vigor in the next soybean generation. Sicklepod was a strong competitor with soybeans at all density ranges investigated. Because sicklepod grows taller than soybeans during the reproductive stages of the crop, limited success can be reached by varying row spacing alone. However, this practice is considered an integral measure to complement other methods of sicklepod control. Compared to constant rows, the soybean cropping system using variable row spacings presents the choice of planting soybeans at close row spacings to provide early competition with weeds and the possibility of obtaining a forage crop after the first month of growth, without any decreases on the final seed yields.

Acúmulo de massa seca e de macronutrientes por plantas de Glycine max e Solanum americanum

A soja é uma das principais culturas agrícolas do Brasil, sendo a sua produtividade muito influenciada pela competição exercida pelas plantas daninhas. Foram realizados dois experimentos em casa de vegetação, em Jaboticabal, SP, objetivando determinar o acúmulo de massa seca, assim como a distribuição e o acúmulo de macronutrientes em plantas de soja, no período de outubro de 2000 a fevereiro de 2001, e de Solanum americanum, no período de janeiro a maio de 1995. As plantas cresceram em vasos com capacidade de 7 litros, preenchidos com areia de rio lavada e peneirada; elas foram irrigadas diariamente com solução nutritiva. Os tratamentos foram representados pelas épocas de amostragem, realizada a intervalos de 14 dias, iniciando-se 21 dias após a emergência (DAE), até 161 DAE para S. americanum e 119 DAE para soja cv. BR-16 (precoce). O ponto de máximo acúmulo teórico de massa seca deu-se aos 104 DAE para a soja (35,0 g por planta) e 143 DAE para S. americanum (179,62 g por planta). da emergência até 49 e 63 DAE, as folhas apresentaram maior participação no acúmulo de massa seca para soja e S. americanum, respectivamente. Após esses períodos, verificou-se, em ambas as espécies, inversão na representatividade das folhas por caules para a espécie daninha e por caules e, posteriormente, por estruturas reprodutivas, para a cultura. A taxa de absorção diária dos macronutrientes atingiu maiores valores entre 69 e 87 DAE para a soja e entre 105 e 119 DAE para a planta daninha. Considerando a média dos valores de pontos de inflexão observados para a cultura da soja, tem-se que aos 75 DAE uma planta de soja acumula teoricamente 23,9 g de massa seca, 564,4 mg de N, 7,1 mg de P, 490,8 mg de K, 487,0 mg de Ca, 156,6 mg de Mg e 36,0 mg de S. Para o mesmo período, uma planta de S. americanum acumula teoricamente 33,75 g de massa seca, 875,96 mg de N, 88,46 mg de P, 983,54 mg de K, 647,60 mg de Ca, 100,93 mg de Mg e 42,15 mg de S.

Efeito do consórcio de milho com Panicum maximum na comunidade infestante e na cultura da soja em rotação

Objetivou-se com este trabalho estudar os efeitos do consórcio de milho com colonião (Panicum maximum cv. Aruana) na infestação de plantas daninhas e na cultura da soja em rotação. O experimento foi realizado em campo, no período de dezembro de 2008 a abril de 2010, em área experimental da UNESP, campus de Jaboticabal-SP. Utilizou-se o delineamento em blocos ao acaso, com quatro repetições, em esquema de parcela subdividida. Foram estudadas duas formas de semeadura (a lanço e em linha) de colonião nas parcelas e quatro quantidades de sementes (200, 400, 600 e 800 pontos de valor cultural - PVC) nas subparcelas, além de três testemunhas, representadas pelo monocultivo das espécies, como tratamentos adicionais. O cultivo consorciado não afetou o desenvolvimento do milho, comparado ao milho solteiro. Embora na colheita do milho houvesse maior matéria seca e densidade de plantas de colonião com a semeadura de 800 PVC, antes da semeadura da soja o acúmulo de massa não diferiu entre os tratamentos de consórcio. Portanto, a semeadura de 200 PVC de sementes de colonião, a lanço ou em linha, foi suficiente para a manutenção de quantidade (9,1 t ha-1) adequada de palha sobre o solo. Antecedendo a semeadura da soja, a infestação de plantas daninhas na testemunha de milho solteiro foi maior do que nos tratamentos de consórcio e nas testemunhas da forrageira solteira (a lanço e em linha). O mesmo foi observado para densidade de plantas daninhas após a instalação da cultura. Os sistemas de consórcio de milho com colonião não interferiram em nenhuma característica avaliada na cultura da soja cultivada em rotação. da mesma forma, não foi observada diferença entre os tratamentos de consórcios e a testemunha de milho em monocultivo para produção de grãos de soja.

Períodos de matocompetição na cultura da soja (Glycine max (L.) Merril), cultivares Santa Rosa e IAC-2. I- efeitos sobre os parâmetros de produção

Visando estudar a influência do período de competição das plantas daninhas sobre alguns parâmetros de produção da cultura da soja, foram instalados experimentos de campo com os cultivares Santa Rosa e IAC-2 em dois tipos de solos, Latossol Roxo e Latossol Vermelho Escuro - fase arenosa, no município de Jaboticabal, Estado de São Paulo, Brasil. O delineamento experimental utilizado foi o de blocos ao acaso , sendo os cultivares mantidos sem e com competição das plantas daninhas por períodos cujas extensões foram 0, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 e 60 dias após a emergência. Com base nos resultados obtidos, pode-se concluir que: o período mínimo do início do ciclo que deve ser mantido livre de competição é de 30 a 40 dias após a emergência para o cultivar Santa Rosa e de 50 dias para o 'IAC-2'; para os dois cultivares, a produção de grãos foi efetivamente aumentada após o 20.° dia sem competição no solo Latossol Roxo e 30.° dia no solo Latossol Vermelho Escuro - fase arenosa, atingindo um valor máximo no 50.° dia para o 'Santa Rosa' e ao redor do 60.° dia para o 'IAC-2'; no ano agrícola de 1977/78 (solo Latosso l Roxo), a competição durante os primeiros 20 dias após a emergência causou perdas de produção em ambos os cultivares, entretanto, no de 1978/79 (solo Latossol Vermelho Escuro - fase arenosa) este período foi de 40 dias, mostrando a importância das interferências e da foclimáticas e das diferentes espécies daninhas, no processo de competição; e, dentre todos os parâmetros relacionados à produção de grãos, o número de vagens por planta foi o mais afetado pela competição das plantas daninhas.

Nível crítico de fósforo no solo paraPanicum maximum Jacq. cv. Tanzânia

Foram avaliados os efeitos da aplicação de fósforo (P) em solo argiloso, de textura média e arenoso, sobre a produção de matéria seca de Panicum maximum Jacq. cv. Tanzânia. O ensaio foi conduzido em casa de vegetação, em vasos de plástico contendo 10 dm³ de solo, em esquema fatorial e delineamento inteiramente ao acaso. Após calagem para V = 70% e aplicação de 0, 35, 70, 105 e 140 mg/dm³ de P, o solo foi umedecido, e depois de 30 dias, secado e amostrado. O ensaio foi conduzido por 76 dias, a partir da emergência das plântulas, com o primeiro corte aos 48 dias, a 10 cm do solo, e o segundo, aos 76,rente ao solo. Com a aplicação de P houve aumento de produção de matéria seca, e o maior acréscimo ocorreu com a aplicação de 35 mg/dm³. A maior produção foi obtida no solo de textura média. O teor de P nas plantas estava adequado nos solos arenoso e argiloso. No de textura média, ele diminuiu com o aumento da produção,caracterizando efeito de diluição. Com aprodução relativa e o teor de P de cada solo, foi determinado o nível crítico de 38 mg/dm³ de P extraído por resina.

Maximização da penetração da geração distribuída através do algoritmo de otimização nuvem de partículas

This work develops a methodology for defining the maximum active power being injected into predefined nodes in the studied distribution networks, considering the possibility of multiple accesses of generating units. The definition of these maximum values is obtained from an optimization study, in which further losses should not exceed those of the base case, i.e., without the presence of distributed generation. The restrictions on the loading of the branches and voltages of the system are respected. To face the problem it is proposed an algorithm, which is based on the numerical method called particle swarm optimization, applied to the study of AC conventional load flow and optimal load flow for maximizing the penetration of distributed generation. Alternatively, the Newton-Raphson method was incorporated to resolution of the load flow. The computer program is performed with the SCILAB software. The proposed algorithm is tested with the data from the IEEE network with 14 nodes and from another network, this one from the Rio Grande do Norte State, at a high voltage (69 kV), with 25 nodes. The algorithm defines allowed values of nominal active power of distributed generation, in percentage terms relative to the demand of the network, from reference values