Direct and indirect effects of screening for Chlamydia trachomatis on the prevention of pelvic inflammatory disease: a mathematical modeling study

BACKGROUND Pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) results from the ascending spread of microorganisms, including Chlamydia trachomatis, to the upper genital tract. Screening could improve outcomes by identifying and treating chlamydial infections before they progress to PID (direct effect) or by reducing chlamydia transmission (indirect effect). METHODS We developed a compartmental model that represents a hypothetical heterosexual population and explicitly incorporates progression from chlamydia to clinical PID. Chlamydia screening was introduced, with coverage increasing each year for 10 years. We estimated the separate contributions of the direct and indirect effects of screening on PID cases prevented per 100,000 women. We explored the influence of varying the time point at which clinical PID could occur and of increasing the risk of PID after repeated chlamydial infections. RESULTS The probability of PID at baseline was 3.1% by age 25 years. After 5 years, the intervention scenario had prevented 187 PID cases per 100,000 women and after 10 years 956 PID cases per 100,000 women. At the start of screening, most PID cases were prevented by the direct effect. The indirect effect produced a small net increase in PID cases, which was outweighed by the effect of reduced chlamydia transmission after 2.2 years. The later that progression to PID occurs, the greater the contribution of the direct effect. Increasing the risk of PID with repeated chlamydial infection increases the number of PID cases prevented by screening. CONCLUSIONS This study shows the separate roles of direct and indirect PID prevention and potential harms, which cannot be demonstrated in observational studies.

Potentials and constraints of modeling for transdisciplinary co-producing strategies for sustainable water governance

Both climate change and socio-economic development will significantly modify the supply and consumption of water in future. Consequently, regional development has to face aggravation of existing or emergence of new conflicts of interest. In this context, transdisciplinary co-production of knowledge is considered as an important means for coping with these challenges. Accordingly, the MontanAqua project aims at developing strategies for more sustainable water management in the study area Crans-Montana-Sierre (Switzerland) in a transdisciplinary way. It strives for co-producing system, target and transformation knowledge among researchers, policy makers, public administration and civil society organizations. The research process basically consisted of the following steps: First, the current water situation in the study region was investigated. How much water is available? How much water is being used? How are decisions on water distribution and use taken? Second, participatory scenario workshops were conducted in order to identify the stakeholders’ visions of regional development. Third, the water situation in 2050 was simulated by modeling the evolution of water resources and water use and by reflecting on the institutional aspects. These steps laid ground for jointly assessing the consequences of the stakeholders’ visions of development in view of scientific data regarding governance, availability and use of water in the region as well as developing necessary transformation knowledge. During all of these steps researchers have collaborated with stakeholders in the support group RegiEau. The RegiEau group consists of key representatives of owners, managers, users, and pressure groups related to water and landscape: representatives of the communes (mostly the presidents), the canton (administration and parliament), water management associations, agriculture, viticulture, hydropower, tourism, and landscape protection. The aim of the talk is to explore potentials and constraints of scientific modeling of water availability and use within the process of transdisciplinary co-producing strategies for more sustainable water governance.

Reliability and quality of water isotope data collected with a lowbudget rain collector

RATIONALELow-budget rain collectors for water isotope analysis, such as the `ball-in-funnel type collector' (BiFC), are widely used in studies on stable water isotopes of rain. To date, however, an experimental quality assessment of such devices in relation to climatic factors does not exist. METHODSWe used Cavity Ring-Down Spectrometry (CRDS) to quantify the effects of evaporation on the O-18 values of reference water under controlled conditions as a function of the elapsed time between rainfall and collection for isotope analysis, the sample volume and the relative humidity (RH: 31% and 67%; 25 degrees C). The climate chamber conditions were chosen to reflect the warm and dry end of field conditions that favor evaporative enrichment (EE). We also tested the performance of the BiFC in the field, and compared our H-2/O-18 data obtained by isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) with those from the Swiss National Network for the Observation of Isotopes in the Water Cycle (ISOT). RESULTSThe EE increased with time, with a 1 increase in the O-18 values after 10days (RH: 25%; 25 degrees C; 35mL (corresponding to a 5mm rain event); p <0.001). The sample volume strongly affected the EE (max. value +1.5 parts per thousand for 7mL samples (i.e., 1mm rain events) after 72h at 31% and 67% RH; p <0.001), whereas the relative humidity had no significant effect. Using the BiFC in the field, we obtained very tight relationships of the H-2/O-18 values (r(2) 0.95) for three sites along an elevational gradient, not significantly different from that of the next ISOT station. CONCLUSIONSSince the chosen experimental conditions were extreme compared with the field conditions, it was concluded that the BiFC is a highly reliable and inexpensive collector of rainwater for isotope analysis. Copyright (c) 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Mineralogical and isotopic record of diagenesis from the Opalinus Clay formation at Benken, Switzerland: Implications for the modeling of pore-water chemistry in a clay formation

Argillaceous rocks are considered to be a suitable geological barrier for the long-term containment of wastes. Their efficiency at retarding contaminant migration is assessed using reactive-transport experiments and modeling, the latter requiring a sound understanding of pore-water chemistry. The building of a pore-water model, which is mandatory for laboratory experiments mimicking in situ conditions, requires a detailed knowledge of the rock mineralogy and of minerals at equilibrium with present-day pore waters. Using a combination of petrological, mineralogical, and isotopic studies, the present study focused on the reduced Opalinus Clay formation (Fm) of the Benken borehole (30 km north of Zurich) which is intended for nuclear-waste disposal in Switzerland. A diagenetic sequence is proposed, which serves as a basis for determining the minerals stable in the formation and their textural relationships. Early cementation of dominant calcite, rare dolomite, and pyrite formed by bacterial sulfate reduction, was followed by formation of iron-rich calcite, ankerite, siderite, glauconite, (Ba, Sr) sulfates, and traces of sphalerite and galena. The distribution and abundance of siderite depends heavily on the depositional environment (and consequently on the water column). Benken sediment deposition during Aalenian times corresponds to an offshore environment with the early formation of siderite concretions at the water/sediment interface at the fluctuating boundary between the suboxic iron reduction and the sulfate reduction zones. Diagenetic minerals (carbonates except dolomite, sulfates, silicates) remained stable from their formation to the present. Based on these mineralogical and geochemical data, the mineral assemblage previously used for the geochemical model of the pore waters at Mont Terri may be applied to Benken without significant changes. These further investigations demonstrate the need for detailed mineralogical and geochemical study to refine the model of pore-water chemistry in a clay formation.

Future water quality monitoring--adapting tools to deal with mixtures of pollutants in water resource management.

Environmental quality monitoring of water resources is challenged with providing the basis for safeguarding the environment against adverse biological effects of anthropogenic chemical contamination from diffuse and point sources. While current regulatory efforts focus on monitoring and assessing a few legacy chemicals, many more anthropogenic chemicals can be detected simultaneously in our aquatic resources. However, exposure to chemical mixtures does not necessarily translate into adverse biological effects nor clearly shows whether mitigation measures are needed. Thus, the question which mixtures are present and which have associated combined effects becomes central for defining adequate monitoring and assessment strategies. Here we describe the vision of the international, EU-funded project SOLUTIONS, where three routes are explored to link the occurrence of chemical mixtures at specific sites to the assessment of adverse biological combination effects. First of all, multi-residue target and non-target screening techniques covering a broader range of anticipated chemicals co-occurring in the environment are being developed. By improving sensitivity and detection limits for known bioactive compounds of concern, new analytical chemistry data for multiple components can be obtained and used to characterise priority mixtures. This information on chemical occurrence will be used to predict mixture toxicity and to derive combined effect estimates suitable for advancing environmental quality standards. Secondly, bioanalytical tools will be explored to provide aggregate bioactivity measures integrating all components that produce common (adverse) outcomes even for mixtures of varying compositions. The ambition is to provide comprehensive arrays of effect-based tools and trait-based field observations that link multiple chemical exposures to various environmental protection goals more directly and to provide improved in situ observations for impact assessment of mixtures. Thirdly, effect-directed analysis (EDA) will be applied to identify major drivers of mixture toxicity. Refinements of EDA include the use of statistical approaches with monitoring information for guidance of experimental EDA studies. These three approaches will be explored using case studies at the Danube and Rhine river basins as well as rivers of the Iberian Peninsula. The synthesis of findings will be organised to provide guidance for future solution-oriented environmental monitoring and explore more systematic ways to assess mixture exposures and combination effects in future water quality monitoring.

Influence of catchment quality and altitude on the water and sediment composition of 68 small lakes in Central Europe

68 lakes (63 Swiss, 2 French and 3 Italian) located in an altitudinal range between 334 and 2339m spanning a wide range of land-use have been investigated. The aim of the study was to discuss influences of geographic location, vegetation and land-use in the catchment area on the water and sediment chemistry of small lakes. Detailed quantitative description of land-use, vegetation, and climate in the watershed of all lakes was established. Surface and bottom water samples collected from each lake were analyzed for major ions and nutrients. Correlations were interpreted using linear regression analysis. Chemical parameters of water and sediment reflect the characteristics of the catchment areas. All lakes were alkaline since they were situated on calcareous bedrock. Concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus strongly increase with increasing agricultural land-use. Na and K, however, are positively correlated with the amount of urbanization within the catchment area. These elements as well as dissolved organic carbon (DOC), Mg, Ca, and alkalinity, increase when the catchment is urbanized or used for agriculture. Total nitrogen and organic carbon in the sediments decrease distinctly if large parts of the catchment consist of bare land. No correlations between sediment composition and maximum water depth or altitude of the lakes were found.¶Striking differences in the water compositions of lakes above and below approximately 700 m of altitude were observed. Concentrations of total nitrogen and nitrate, total phosphorus, DOC, Na, K, Mg, Ca, and alkalinity are distinctly higher in most lakes below 700 m than above, and the pH of the bottom waters of these lakes is generally lower. Estimates of total nitrogen concentrations, even in remote areas, indicate that precipitation is responsible for increased background concentrations. At lower altitudes nitrogen concentrations in lakes is explained by the nitrogen loaded rain from urban areas deposited on the catchment, and with high percentages of agricultural land-use in the watershed.

An evaluation of a Lake Houston tributary, Cypress Creek, for contamination and water quality

Introduction. Lake Houston serves as a reservoir for both recreational and drinking water for residents of Houston, Texas, and the metropolitan area. The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) expressed concerns about the water quality and increasing amounts of pathogenic bacteria in Lake Houston (3). The objective of this investigation is to evaluate water quality for the presence of bacteria, nitrates, nitrites, carbon, phosphorus, dissolved oxygen, pH, turbidity, suspended solids, dissolved solids, and chlorine in Cypress Creek. The aims of this project are to analyze samples of water from Cypress Creek and to render a quantitative and graphical representation of the results. The collected information will allow for a better understanding of the aqueous environment in Cypress Creek.^ Methods. Water samples were collected in August 2009 and analyzed in the field and at UTSPH laboratory by spectrophotometry and other methods. Mapping software was utilized to develop novel maps of the sample sites using coordinates attained with the Global Positioning System (GPS). Sample sites and concentrations were mapped using Geographic Information System (GIS) software and correlated with permitted outfalls and other land use characteristic.^ Results. All areas sampled were positive for the presence of total coliform and Escherichia coli (E. coli). The presences of other water contaminants varied at each location in Cypress Creek but were under the maximum allowable limits designated by the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. However, dissolved oxygen concentrations were elevated above the TCEQ limit of 5.0 mg/L at majority of the sites. One site had near-limit concentration of nitrates at 9.8 mg/L. Land use above this site included farm land, agricultural land, golf course, parks, residential neighborhoods, and nine permitted TCEQ effluent discharge sites within 0.5 miles upstream.^ Significance. Lake Houston and its tributary, Cypress Creek, are used as recreational waters where individuals may become exposed to microbial contamination. Lake Houston also is the source of drinking water for much of Houston/Harris and Galveston Counties. This research identified the presence of microbial contaminates in Cypress Creek above TCEQ regulatory requirements. Other water quality variables measured were in line with TCEQ regulations except for near-limit for nitrate at sample site #10, at Jarvis and Timberlake in Cypress Texas.^

Impact of Liquid Swine Manure Application and Cover Crops on Ground Water Quality

The primary objective of this project was to determine the impact of appropriate rates of swine manure applications to corn and soybeans based on nitrogen and phosphorus requirements of crops, soil phosphorus accumulation, and the potential of nitrate and phosphorus leaching to groundwater. Another purpose of this long-term experimental study was to develop and recommend appropriate manure and nutrient management practices to producers to minimize the water contamination potential and enhance the use of swine manure as inorganic fertilizer. A third component of this study was to determine the potential effects of rye as a cover crop to reduce nitrate loss to shallow ground water.

Benthic and fish community composition as well as water quality along the Thousand Islands north of the megacity Jakarta, Indonesia

Worldwide, coral reefs are challenged by multiple stressors due to growing urbanization, industrialization and coastal development. Coral reefs along the Thousand Islands off Jakarta, one of the largest megacities worldwide, have degraded dramatically over recent decades. The shift and decline in coral cover and composition has been extensively studied with a focus on large-scale gradients (i.e. regional drivers), however special focus on local drivers in shaping spatial community composition is still lacking. Here, the spatial impact of anthropogenic stressors on local and regional scales on coral reefs north of Jakarta was investigated. Results indicate that the direct impact of Jakarta is mainly restricted to inshore reefs, separating reefs in Jakarta Bay from reefs along the Thousand Islands further north. A spatial patchwork of differentially degraded reefs is present along the islands as a result of localized anthropogenic effects rather than regional gradients. Pollution is the main anthropogenic stressor, with over 80 % of variation in benthic community composition driven by sedimentation rate, NO2, PO4 and Chlorophyll a. Thus, the spatial structure of reefs is directly related to intense anthropogenic pressure from local as well as regional sources. Therefore, improved spatial management that accounts for both local and regional stressors is needed for effective marine conservation.

Emission inventories and modeling activities for the development of air quality plans in Madrid (Spain)

1. Introduction 2. Air Quality Modeling system 3. Emission Inventories 4. Applications and Results 5. Conclusions

Emission inventories and modeling requirements for the development of air quality plans. Application to Madrid (Spain)

Modeling is an essential tool for the development of atmospheric emission abatement measures and air quality plans. Most often these plans are related to urban environments with high emission density and population exposure. However, air quality modeling in urban areas is a rather challenging task. As environmental standards become more stringent (e.g. European Directive 2008/50/EC), more reliable and sophisticated modeling tools are needed to simulate measures and plans that may effectively tackle air quality exceedances, common in large urban areas across Europe, particularly for NO2. This also implies that emission inventories must satisfy a number of conditions such as consistency across the spatial scales involved in the analysis, consistency with the emission inventories used for regulatory purposes and versatility to match the requirements of different air quality and emission projection models. This study reports the modeling activities carried out in Madrid (Spain) highlighting the atmospheric emission inventory development and preparation as an illustrative example of the combination of models and data needed to develop a consistent air quality plan at urban level. These included a series of source apportionment studies to define contributions from the international, national, regional and local sources in order to understand to what extent local authorities can enforce meaningful abatement measures. Moreover, source apportionment studies were conducted in order to define contributions from different sectors and to understand the maximum feasible air quality improvement that can be achieved by reducing emissions from those sectors, thus targeting emission reduction policies to the most relevant activities. Finally, an emission scenario reflecting the effect of such policies was developed and the associated air quality was modeled.

Effective Surface Water Quality Policies: A Contrast of Policies in the United States and the European Union

The United States and the European Union each have their own policy approach to protect surface water quality. Both policy approaches are similar in many ways. Both rely heavily on command and control. However, there are differences in the application of the details. Both the U.S. and E.U. began current efforts to protect surface water quality in the 1970s, yet quality continues to less than desired in both places. Both have reduced point source pollutants but have had difficulty controlling non-point source pollutants even though policies have been in place for many decades. The successes and failures of the two policies are studied in this project to determine which aspects of both policies will best protect surface water quality in an increasingly complex future.