Mixed effects model in negative exponential curve

Despite many researches on development in education and psychology, not often is the methodology tested with real data. A major barrier to test the growth model is that the design of study includes repeated observations and the nature of the growth is nonlinear. The repeat measurements on a nonlinear model require sophisticated statistical methods. In this study, we present mixed effects model in a negative exponential curve to describe the development of children's reading skills. This model can describe the nature of the growth on children's reading skills and account for intra-individual and inter-individual variation. We also apply simple techniques including cross-validation, regression, and graphical methods to determine the most appropriate curve for data, to find efficient initial values of parameters, and to select potential covariates. We illustrate with an example that motivated this research: a longitudinal study of academic skills from grade 1 to grade 12 in Connecticut public schools. ^

Is FTA/EPA effective for a developing country to attract FDI? : simulation analysis based on an extended knowledge-capital model

To prepare an answer to the question of how a developing country can attract FDI, this paper explored the factors and policies that may help bring FDI into a developing country by utilizing an extended version of the knowledge-capital model. With a special focus on the effects of FTAs/EPAs between market countries and developing countries, simulations with the model revealed the following: (1) Although FTA/EPA generally ends to increase FDI to a developing country, the possibility of improving welfare through increased demand for skilled and unskilled labor becomes higher as the size of the country declines; (2) Because the additional implementation of cost-saving policies to reduce firm-type/trade-link specific fixed costs ends to depreciate the price of skilled labor by saving its input, a developing country, which is extremely scarce in skilled labor, is better off avoiding the additional option; (3) If a country hopes to enjoy larger welfare gains with EPA, efforts to increase skilled labor in the country, such as investing in education, may be beneficial.

Extended Triple-Junction Solar Cell 3D Distributed Model: Application to Chromatic Aberration-Related Losses

An extended 3D distributed model based on distributed circuit units for the simulation of triple‐junction solar cells under realistic conditions for the light distribution has been developed. A special emphasis has been put in the capability of the model to accurately account for current mismatch and chromatic aberration effects. This model has been validated, as shown by the good agreement between experimental and simulation results, for different light spot characteristics including spectral mismatch and irradiance non‐uniformities. This model is then used for the prediction of the performance of a triple‐junction solar cell for a light spot corresponding to a real optical architecture in order to illustrate its suitability in assisting concentrator system analysis and design process.

New methods for the estimation of Takagi-Sugeno model based extended Kalman filter and its applications to optimal control for nonlinear systems

This paper describes new approaches to improve the local and global approximation (matching) and modeling capability of Takagi–Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy model. The main aim is obtaining high function approximation accuracy and fast convergence. The main problem encountered is that T-S identification method cannot be applied when the membership functions are overlapped by pairs. This restricts the application of the T-S method because this type of membership function has been widely used during the last 2 decades in the stability, controller design of fuzzy systems and is popular in industrial control applications. The approach developed here can be considered as a generalized version of T-S identification method with optimized performance in approximating nonlinear functions. We propose a noniterative method through weighting of parameters approach and an iterative algorithm by applying the extended Kalman filter, based on the same idea of parameters’ weighting. We show that the Kalman filter is an effective tool in the identification of T-S fuzzy model. A fuzzy controller based linear quadratic regulator is proposed in order to show the effectiveness of the estimation method developed here in control applications. An illustrative example of an inverted pendulum is chosen to evaluate the robustness and remarkable performance of the proposed method locally and globally in comparison with the original T-S model. Simulation results indicate the potential, simplicity, and generality of the algorithm. An illustrative example is chosen to evaluate the robustness. In this paper, we prove that these algorithms converge very fast, thereby making them very practical to use.

Simulation of Land Use and Investment Behaviour under Different Policy Scenarios: Results of the extended farm/household model. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 27, July 2012

Factor markets are a central issue in analyses of farm development and of agricultural sector vitality. Among the different production factors, land is one of the most studied. Several studies seek to estimate the effect of government policy payments on land value or land rental prices. The studies mostly agree that government payments and other types of policy support are significant in explaining land prices and account for a large share of them. In October 2011, the European Commission published a new policy proposal for the common agricultural policy (CAP) up to 2020. The proposed regulation includes a shift from historical to regional payments. The objective of this paper is to provide an ex ante analysis of the impact of the new CAP policy instruments on the land market. In particular, the effect of the regionalisation of payments in Italy is examined. The analysis is based on the use of a mathematical programming model to simulate the changes in land demand for a farm in Emilia Romagna. The results highlight the relevance of the new policy mechanism in determining a change in land demand. Yet the effect is highly dependent on initial ownership of entitlements under the historical payment scheme.

Finite mixture regression model with random effects: application to neonatal hospital length of stay

A two-component mixture regression model that allows simultaneously for heterogeneity and dependency among observations is proposed. By specifying random effects explicitly in the linear predictor of the mixture probability and the mixture components, parameter estimation is achieved by maximising the corresponding best linear unbiased prediction type log-likelihood. Approximate residual maximum likelihood estimates are obtained via an EM algorithm in the manner of generalised linear mixed model (GLMM). The method can be extended to a g-component mixture regression model with the component density from the exponential family, leading to the development of the class of finite mixture GLMM. For illustration, the method is applied to analyse neonatal length of stay (LOS). It is shown that identification of pertinent factors that influence hospital LOS can provide important information for health care planning and resource allocation. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetic and Cultural Transmission of Smoking Initiation: An Extended Twin Kinship Model

Background Considerable evidence from twin and adoption studies indicates that genetic and shared environmental factors play a significant role in the initiation of smoking behavior. Although twin and adoption designs are powerful to detect genetic and environmental influences, they do not provide information on the processes of assortative mating and parent–offspring transmission and their contribution to the variability explained by genetic and/or environmental factors. Methods We examined the role of genetic and environmental factors for smoking initiation using an extended kinship design. This design allows the simultaneous testing of additive and non-additive genetic, shared and individual-specific environmental factors, as well as sex differences in the expression of genes and environment in the presence of assortative mating and combined genetic and cultural transmission. A dichotomous lifetime smoking measure was obtained from twins and relatives in the Virginia 30,000 sample. Results Results demonstrate that both genetic and environmental factors play a significant role in the liability to smoking initiation. Major influences on individual differences appeared to be additive genetic and unique environmental effects, with smaller contributions from assortative mating, shared sibling environment, twin environment, cultural transmission and resulting genotype–environment covariance. The finding of negative cultural transmission without dominance led us to investigate more closely two possible mechanisms for the lower parent–offspring correlations compared to the sibling and DZ twin correlations in subsets of the data: (i) age × gene interaction, and (ii) social homogamy. Neither mechanism provided a significantly better explanation of the data, although age regression was significant. Conclusions This study showed significant heritability, partly due to assortment, and significant effects of primarily non-parental shared environment on smoking initiation.

A population dynamical model of Operophtera brumata, L. extended by climatic factors

Setting out from the database of Operophtera brumata, L. in between 1973 and 2000 due to the Light Trap Network in Hungary, we introduce a simple theta-logistic population dynamical model based on endogenous and exogenous factors, only. We create an indicator set from which we can choose some elements with which we can improve the fitting results the most effectively. Than we extend the basic simple model with additive climatic factors. The parameter optimization is based on the minimized root mean square error. The best model is chosen according to the Akaike Information Criterion. Finally we run the calibrated extended model with daily outputs of the regional climate model RegCM3.1, regarding 1961-1990 as reference period and 2021-2050 with 2071-2100 as future predictions. The results of the three time intervals are fitted with Beta distributions and compared statistically. The expected changes are discussed.

Dynamic model development of adiabatic compressed air energy storage

The share of variable renewable energy in electricity generation has seen exponential growth during the recent decades, and due to the heightened pursuit of environmental targets, the trend is to continue with increased pace. The two most important resources, wind and insolation both bear the burden of intermittency, creating a need for regulation and posing a threat to grid stability. One possibility to deal with the imbalance between demand and generation is to store electricity temporarily, which was addressed in this thesis by implementing a dynamic model of adiabatic compressed air energy storage (CAES) with Apros dynamic simulation software. Based on literature review, the existing models due to their simplifications were found insufficient for studying transient situations, and despite of its importance, the investigation of part load operation has not yet been possible with satisfactory precision. As a key result of the thesis, the cycle efficiency at design point was simulated to be 58.7%, which correlated well with literature information, and was validated through analytical calculations. The performance at part load was validated against models shown in literature, showing good correlation. By introducing wind resource and electricity demand data to the model, grid operation of CAES was studied. In order to enable the dynamic operation, start-up and shutdown sequences were approximated in dynamic environment, as far as is known, the first time, and a user component for compressor variable guide vanes (VGV) was implemented. Even in the current state, the modularly designed model offers a framework for numerous studies. The validity of the model is limited by the accuracy of VGV correlations at part load, and in addition the implementation of heat losses to the thermal energy storage is necessary to enable longer simulations. More extended use of forecasts is one of the important targets of development, if the system operation is to be optimised in future.

Situated case-based reasoning as a constructive memory model for design reasoning

This paper describes an extended case-based reasoning model that addresses the notion of situatedness in designing through constructive memory. The model is illustrated through an application for predicting the corrosion rate for a specific material on a specific building.

Disclosing donation decisions : the role of organ donor prototypes in an extended theory of planned behaviour

This study explored the role of donor prototype evaluations (perceptions of the typical organ donor) in organ donation communication decisions using an extended theory of planned behaviour (TPB) model. The model incorporated attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control, moral norm, self-identity, and donor prototype evaluations to predict intentions to record consent on an organ donor register and discuss the organ donation decision with significant others. Participants completed surveys assessing the extended TPB constructs related to registering (n = 359) and discussing (n = 282). Results supported a role for donor prototype evaluations in predicting discussing intentions only. Both extended TPB structural equation models were a good fit to the data, accounting for 74 and 76% of the variance in registering and discussing intentions, respectively. Participants’ self-reported discussing behaviour (but not registering behaviour given low numbers of behavioural performers) was assessed 4 weeks later, with discussing intention as the only significant predictor of behaviour (Nagelkerke R2 = 0.11). These findings highlight the impact of people's perceptions of a typical donor on their decisions to discuss their organ donation preference, assisting our understanding of the factors influencing individuals' communication processes in efforts to bridge the gap between organ supply and demand.

Groundwater flow model of the Logan river alluvial aquifer system Josephville, South East Queensland

The study focuses on an alluvial plain situated within a large meander of the Logan River at Josephville near Beaudesert which supports a factory that processes gelatine. The plant draws water from on site bores, as well as the Logan River, for its production processes and produces approximately 1.5 ML per day (Douglas Partners, 2004) of waste water containing high levels of dissolved ions. At present a series of treatment ponds are used to aerate the waste water reducing the level of organic matter; the water is then used to irrigate grazing land around the site. Within the study the hydrogeology is investigated, a conceptual groundwater model is produced and a numerical groundwater flow model is developed from this. On the site are several bores that access groundwater, plus a network of monitoring bores. Assessment of drilling logs shows the area is formed from a mixture of poorly sorted Quaternary alluvial sediments with a laterally continuous aquifer comprised of coarse sands and fine gravels that is in contact with the river. This aquifer occurs at a depth of between 11 and 15 metres and is overlain by a heterogeneous mixture of silts, sands and clays. The study investigates the degree of interaction between the river and the groundwater within the fluvially derived sediments for reasons of both environmental monitoring and sustainability of the potential local groundwater resource. A conceptual hydrogeological model of the site proposes two hydrostratigraphic units, a basal aquifer of coarse-grained materials overlain by a thick semi-confining unit of finer materials. From this, a two-layer groundwater flow model and hydraulic conductivity distribution was developed based on bore monitoring and rainfall data using MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988) and PEST (Doherty, 2004) based on GMS 6.5 software (EMSI, 2008). A second model was also considered with the alluvium represented as a single hydrogeological unit. Both models were calibrated to steady state conditions and sensitivity analyses of the parameters has demonstrated that both models are very stable for changes in the range of ± 10% for all parameters and still reasonably stable for changes up to ± 20% with RMS errors in the model always less that 10%. The preferred two-layer model was found to give the more realistic representation of the site, where water level variations and the numerical modeling showed that the basal layer of coarse sands and fine gravels is hydraulically connected to the river and the upper layer comprising a poorly sorted mixture of silt-rich clays and sands of very low permeability limits infiltration from the surface to the lower layer. The paucity of historical data has limited the numerical modelling to a steady state one based on groundwater levels during a drought period and forecasts for varying hydrological conditions (e.g. short term as well as prolonged dry and wet conditions) cannot reasonably be made from such a model. If future modelling is to be undertaken it is necessary to establish a regular program of groundwater monitoring and maintain a long term database of water levels to enable a transient model to be developed at a later stage. This will require a valid monitoring network to be designed with additional bores required for adequate coverage of the hydrogeological conditions at the Josephville site. Further investigations would also be enhanced by undertaking pump testing to investigate hydrogeological properties in the aquifer.

Graduate Attribute Mapping With the Extended CDIO Framework

The CDIO (Conceive-Design-Implement-Operate) Initiative has been globally recognised as an enabler for engineering education reform. With the CDIO process, the CDIO Standards and the CDIO Syllabus, many scholarly contributions have been made around cultural change, curriculum reform and learning environments. In the Australasian region, reform is gaining significant momentum within the engineering education community, the profession, and higher education institutions. This paper presents the CDIO Syllabus cast into the Australian context by mapping it to the Engineers Australia Graduate Attributes, the Washington Accord Graduate Attributes and the Queensland University of Technology Graduate Capabilities. Furthermore, in recognition that many secondary schools and technical training institutions offer introductory engineering technology subjects, this paper presents an extended self-rating framework suited for recognising developing levels of proficiency at a preparatory level. A demonstrator mapping tool has been created to demonstrate the application of this extended graduate attribute mapping framework as a precursor to an integrated curriculum information model.

A model of teacher professional development based on the principles of lesson study

The researcher’s professional role as an Education Officer was the impetus for this study. Designing and implementing professional development activities is a significant component of the researcher’s position description and as a result of reflection and feedback from participants and colleagues, the creation of a more effective model of professional development became the focus for this study. Few studies have examined all three links between the purposes of professional development that is, increasing teacher knowledge, improving teacher practice, and improving student outcomes. This study is significant in that it investigates the nature of the growth of teachers who participated in a model of professional development which was based upon the principles of Lesson Study. The research provides qualitative and empirical data to establish some links between teacher knowledge, teacher practice, and student learning outcomes. Teacher knowledge in this study refers to mathematics content knowledge as well as pedagogical-content knowledge. The outcomes for students include achievement outcomes, attitudinal outcomes, and behavioural outcomes. As the study was conducted at one school-site, existence proof research was the focus of the methodology and data collection. Developing over the 2007 school year, with five teacher-participants and approximately 160 students from Year Levels 6 to 9, the Lesson Study-principled model of professional development provided the teacher-participants with on-site, on-going, and reflective learning based on their classroom environment. The focus area for the professional development was strategising the engagement with and solution of worded mathematics problems. A design experiment was used to develop the professional development as an intervention of prevailing teacher practice for which data were collected prior to and after the period of intervention. A model of teacher change was developed as an underpinning framework for the development of the study, and was useful in making decisions about data collection and analyses. Data sources consisted of questionnaires, pre-tests and post-tests, interviews, and researcher observations and field notes. The data clearly showed that: content knowledge and pedagogical-content knowledge were increased among the teacher-participants; teacher practice changed in a positive manner; and that a majority of students demonstrated improved learning outcomes. The positive changes to teacher practice are described in this study as the demonstrated use of mixed pedagogical practices rather than a polarisation to either traditional pedagogical practices or contemporary pedagogical practices. The improvement in student learning outcomes was most significant as improved achievement outcomes as indicated by the comparison of pre-test and post-test scores. The effectiveness of the Lesson Study-principled model of professional development used in this study was evaluated using Guskey’s (2005) Five Levels of Professional Development Evaluation.

Towards a new employment relationship model

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to examine and extend Noer’s theoretical model of the new employment relationship. Design/methodology/approach – Case study methodology is used to scrutinise the model. The results of a literature-based survey on the elements underpinning the five values in the model are analysed from dual perspectives of individual and organization using a multi-source assessment instrument. A schema is developed to guide and inform a series of focus group discussions from an analysis of the survey data. Using content analysis, the transcripts from the focus group discussions are evaluated using the model’s values and their elements. The transcripts are also reviewed for implicit themes. The case studied is Flight Centre Limited, an Australian-based international retail travel company. Findings – Using this approach, some elements of the five values in Noer’s model are identified as characteristic of the company’s psychological contract. Specifically, to some extent, the model’s values of flexible deployment, customer focus, performance focus, project-based work, and human spirit and work can be applied in this case. A further analysis of the transcripts validates three additional values in the psychological contract literature: commitment; learning and development; and open information. As a result of the findings, Noer’s model is extended to eight values. Research limitations/implications – The study offers a research-based model of the new employment relationship. Since generalisations from the case study findings cannot be applied directly to other settings, the opportunity to test this model in a variety of contexts is open to other researchers. Originality/value – In practice, the methodology used is a unique process for benchmarking the psychological contract. The process may be applied in other business settings. By doing so, organization development professionals have a consulting framework for comparing an organization’s dominant psychological contract with the extended model presented here.