Poliisista maahanmuuttajankin ystävä

Kirjallisuutta

Bioenergian ja tuulivoiman rooli kasvihuonekaasupäästöjen rajoittamiseksi

Työssä käydään läpi bioenergian ja tuulivoiman osuuksia Suomen energiantuotannossa, sekä niiden mahdollisuuksia kasvihuonekaasupäästöjen vähentämisessä.

Quantitative market and sales forecast accuracy analysis

The main objective of this master’s thesis was to quantitatively study the reliability of market and sales forecasts of a certain company by measuring bias, precision and accuracy of these forecasts by comparing forecasts against actual values. Secondly, the differences of bias, precision and accuracy between markets were explained by various macroeconomic variables and market characteristics. Accuracy and precision of the forecasts seems to vary significantly depending on the market that is being forecasted, the variable that is being forecasted, the estimation period, the length of the estimated period, the forecast horizon and the granularity of the data. High inflation, low income level and high year-on-year market volatility seems to be related with higher annual market forecast uncertainty and high year-on-year sales volatility with higher sales forecast uncertainty. When quarterly market size is forecasted, correlation between macroeconomic variables and forecast errors reduces. Uncertainty of the sales forecasts cannot be explained with macroeconomic variables. Longer forecasts are more uncertain, shorter estimated period leads to higher uncertainty, and usually more recent market forecasts are less uncertain. Sales forecasts seem to be more uncertain than market forecasts, because they incorporate both market size and market share risks. When lead time is more than one year, forecast risk seems to grow as a function of root forecast horizon. When lead time is less than year, sequential error terms are typically correlated, and therefore forecast errors are trending or mean-reverting. The bias of forecasts seems to change in cycles, and therefore the future forecasts cannot be systematically adjusted with it. The MASE cannot be used to measure whether the forecast can anticipate year-on-year volatility. Instead, we constructed a new relative accuracy measure to cope with this particular situation.

Koulutuksesta syrjäytymisen ehkäisy Varsinais-Suomessa

Tämä raportti liittyy Varsinais-Suomen liiton maakunnan kehittämisrahoituksella vuonna 2008 toteutettuun tutkimus- ja kehittämishankkeeseen Koulutuksesta syrjäytymisen ehkäisy Varsinais-Suomessa (fimos 114856). Hankkeen tavoitteena oli selvittää maakunnan koulupudokkaiden ja syrjäytymisvaarassa olevien nuorten tilannetta ja ongelmia sekä etsiä uusia tehokkaita keinoja syrjäytymisen ehkäisemiseksi. Hanke on toteutettu Koulutussosiologian tutkimuskeskuksessa RUSE:ssa dosentti Sakari Aholan johdolla. Hankkeen ohjausryhmään kuuluivat Salon seudun koulutuskuntayhtymän johtaja Pasi Kankare (pj.), professori Osmo Kivinen (RUSE), projektipäällikkö Matti Mäkelä (Turun ammatti-instituutti), urasuunnittelija Taina Laaksonen (Turun kaupungin nuorisoasiainkeskus / nuorten työpaja Fendari), erikoissuunnittelija Tuula Halttunen (Varsinais-Suomen liitto) sekä koordinaattori Päivi Kaipainen (sihteeri, RUSE). Hankkeesta on tiedotettu RUSE:n verkkosivuilla, josta löytyvät myös tarkemmat kuvaukset hankkeen tavoitteista, toimenpiteistä sekä keskeiset tuotokset: http://ruse.utu.fi -->Projects -->Koulutuksesta syrjäytymisen ehkäisy Varsinais-Suomessa

Profiles of Second Language Learners in Bilingual Education: A Comparative Study of the Characteristics of Finnish and American Students

The purpose of this comparative study is to profile second language learners by exploring the factors which have an impact on their learning. The subjects come from two different countries: one group comes from Milwaukee, US, and the other from Turku, Finland. The subjects have attended bilingual classes from elementary school to senior high school in their respective countries. In the United States, the subjects (N = 57) started in one elementary school from where they moved on to two high schools in the district. The Finnish subjects (N = 39) attended the same school from elementary to high school. The longitudinal study was conducted during 1994-2004 and combines both qualitative and quantitative research methods. A Pilot Study carried out in 1990-1991 preceded the two subsequent studies that form the core material of this research. The theoretical part of the study focuses first on language policies in the United States and Finland: special emphasis is given to the history, development and current state of bilingual education, and the factors that have affected policy-making in the provision of language instruction. Current language learning theories and models form the theoretical foundation of the research, and underpin the empirical studies. Cognitively-labeled theories are at the forefront, but sociocultural theory and the ecological approach are also accounted for. The research methods consist of questionnaires, compositions and interviews. A combination of statistical methods as well as content analysis were used in the analysis. The attitude of the bilingual learners toward L1 and L2 was generally positive: the subjects enjoyed learning through two languages and were motivated to learn both. The knowledge of L1 and parental support, along with early literacy in L1, facilitated the learning of L2. This was particularly evident in the American subject group. The American subjects’ L2 learning was affected by the attitudes of the learners to the L1 culture and its speakers. Furthermore, the negative attitudes taken by L1 speakers toward L2 speakers and the lack of opportunities to engage in activities in the L1 culture affected the American subjects’ learning of L2, English. The research showed that many American L2 learners were isolated from the L1 culture and were even afraid to use English in everyday communication situations. In light of the research results, a politically neutral linguistic environment, which the Finnish subjects inhabited, was seen to be more favorable for learning. The Finnish subjects were learning L2, English, in a neutral zone where their own attitudes and motivation dictated their learning. The role of L2 as a means of international communication in Finland, as opposed to a means of exercising linguistic power, provided a neutral atmosphere for learning English. In both the American and Finnish groups, the learning of other languages was facilitated when the learner had a good foundation in their L1, and the learning of L1 and L2 were in balance. Learning was also fostered when the learners drew positive experiences from their surroundings and were provided with opportunities to engage in activities where L2 was used.

Aktiivinen jännitteensäätö hajautetussa sähköntuotannossa

Hajautetun tuotannon määrä kasvaa jakeluverkossa tulevaisuudessa ja siksi jakeluverkon toiminta tulee muuttumaan aktiivisempaan suuntaan. Nykyisin tuotannon aiheuttamaa jännitteennousua rajoitetaan yleensä passiivisilla menetelmillä kuten vahvistamalla verkkoa. Tuotantolaitos ei tällöin osallistu jakeluverkon jännitteensäätöön. Tämä saattaa nostaa kapasiteetiltaan suurehkon tuotannon liittymiskustannukset niin korkeiksi, ettei tuotantolaitosta kannata rakentaa. Aktiivisella jännitteensäädöllä tuotantokapasiteettia voitaisiin merkittävästi kasvattaa nykyisissä jakeluverkoissa. Aktiivinen jännitteensäätö voi perustua joko paikalliseen säätöön, jolloin esim. tuotantolaitosta säädetään paikallisen jännitteen perusteella tai koordinoituun säätöön, jolloin verkon komponentteja säädetään kokonaisuutena. Työssä tutustutaan hajautettuun tuotantoon ja sen vaikutuksiin jakeluverkon jännitetasoissa sekä jännitteensäädössä. Työssä edetään passiivisesta jännitteensäädöstä aktiiviseen jännitteensäätöön. Aktiivisessa jännitteensäädössä tutustutaan muutamaan kirjallisuudessa esitettyyn algoritmiin ja käytännön toteutukseen. Työssä keskitytään vain verkon jännitetasoon, eikä muita jännitteen laadun ominaisuuksia oteta huomioon.

Puisto

Puisto kaupungissa. Lintujen ääniä. Liikenteen voimakasta kohinaa taustalla.

Puisto

Puisto kaupungissa. Lintujen liverrystä ja autojen ääniä. Taustalla koiran haukuntaa.

Small scale energy production in Helsinki Metropolitan area in emission trading point of view

Emission trading with greenhouse gases and green certificates are part if the climate policy the main target of which is reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The carbon dioxide and fine particle emissions of energy production in Helsinki Metropolitan area are calculated in this study. The analysis is made mainly by district heating point of view and the changes of the district heating network are assessed. Carbon dioxide emissions would be a bit higher, if the district heating network is expanded, but then the fine particle emissions would be much lower. Carbon dioxide emissions are roughly 10 % higher, if the district heating network is expanded at same rate as it has in past five years in the year 2030. The expansion of district heating network would decrease the fine particle emissions about 40 %. The cost of the expansion is allocated to be reduction cost of the fine particle emissions, which is considerably higher than the traditional reduction methods costs. The possible new nuclear plant would reduce the emissions considerably and the costs of the nuclear plant would be relatively low comparing the other energy production methods.