The wrong tool for the job? The predictive powers of the DBQ in a sample of Queensland motorists

Introduction This study reports on the application of the Manchester Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) to examine the self-reported driving behaviours (e.g., speeding, errors & aggressive manoeuvres) and predict crash involvement among a sample of general Queensland motorists. Material and Methods Surveys were completed by 249 general motorists on-line or via a pen-and-paper format. Results A factor analysis revealed a three factor solution for the DBQ which was consistent with previous Australian-based research. It accounted for 40.5% of the total variance, although some cross-loadings were observed on nine of the twenty items. The internal reliability of the DBQ was satisfactory. However, multivariate analysis using the DBQ revealed little predictive ability of the tool to predict crash involvement or demerit point loss e.g. violation notices. Rather, exposure to the road was found to be predictive of crashes, although speeding did make a small contribution to those who recently received a violation notice. Conclusions Taken together, the findings contribute to a growing body of research that raises questions about the predictive ability of the most widely used driving assessment tool globally. Ongoing research (which also includes official crash and offence outcomes) is required to better understand the actual contribution that the DBQ can make to understanding and improving road safety. Future research should also aim to confirm whether this lack of predictive efficacy originates from broader issues inherent within self-report data (e.g., memory recall problems) or issues underpinning the conceptualisation of the scale.

Interference in text categorisation experiments

This article examines manual textual categorisation by human coders with the hypothesis that the law of total probability may be violated for difficult categories. An empirical evaluation was conducted to compare a one step categorisation task with a two step categorisation task using crowdsourcing. It was found that the law of total probability was violated. Both a quantum and classical probabilistic interpretations for this violation are presented. Further studies are required to resolve whether quantum models are more appropriate for this task.

Improving the penetration level of PVs using DC link for residential buildings

This paper proposes the use of a common DC link in residential buildings to allow customers to inject their surplus power that otherwise would be limited due to AC power quality violation. The surplus power can easily be transferred to other phases and feeders through common DC link in order to maintain the balance between generated power and load. PSCAD-EMTDC platform is used to simulate and study the proposed approach. This paper suggests that this structure can be a pathway to the future DC power systems.

Service encounter needs theory : a dyadic, psychosocial approach to understanding service encounters

Interactions between customers and service providers are ubiquitous. Some of these encounters are routine, but many are characterized by conflict and intense emotions. This chapter introduces a new theory, service encounter needs theory (SENT) that aims to elucidate the mechanisms through which service encounter behaviors affect outcomes for customers and employees. Evidence is presented for the preeminence within these encounters of eight psychosocial needs, and propositions are advanced regarding likely antecedents to fulfillment and violation of these needs. Emotional experiences and displays are viewed as important consequences of need fulfillment and violation, as are numerous cognitive, behavioral, and health-related outcomes.

When leadership meets organizational change : the influence of the top management team and supervisory leaders on change appraisals, change attitudes, and adjustment to change

Despite the importance of adaption and change for firm survival, the failure rate of organizational change efforts remains alarmingly high (Beer and Nohria, 2000; Kotter, 1995). In a recent global survey of over 3,000 executives,Meaney and Pung (2008) reported that two-thirds of executives indicated that their firm had failed to successfully implement organizational changes. Similarly, academic researchers have also concluded that difficulties in implementing and managing organizational change efforts often precipitate organizational crises (Probst and Raisch, 2005). As a result, attention has been directed to identify the factors that improve the likelihood of successfully implementing organizational change efforts. While there has been practitioner-oriented discussion around the pivotal role of workplace leaders in reducing resistance to change, only a limited number of empirical studies have examined relationships between leader behavior and employee change attitudes (e.g., Bommer, Rich, and Rubin, 2005; Herold, Caldwell, and Liu, 2008; Nemanich and Keller, 2007; Oreg and Berson, 2011). However...

Educating for the creative economy in emerging countries

In 1972, the United Nations (UN) Conference on the Human Environment expressed a growing realization that economic and social progress needed to be balanced with a concern for the environment and the stewardship of natural resources. The hard-to-grasp concept of "sustainable development" was first defined as "development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs" (World Commission on Environment and Development [WESDJ, 1987, p. 43). This definition contains two concepts: first, "human needs," with priority given to the world's poor, and, second, the environment's limits for meeting the state of technological and social organization (WESD, 1987, p. 43). At the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development (UN, 2002a), the focus on environmental protection broadened to encompass social justice and the fight against poverty as key principles of development that is sustainable. Three interdependent and mutually reinforcing "pillars" were recognized: economic development, social development, and environmental protection. These pillars must be established at local, national, and global levels. The complexity and interrelationship of critical issues such as poverty, wasteful consumption, urban decay, population growth, gender inequality, health, conflict, and the violation of human rights are addressed in all three pillars (Pigozzi, 2003, p. 3). Following the concept of sustainable development, we argue that the challenge for developing countries in contemporary society is to meet the very real need for economic development and opportunities for income generation, while avoiding the unintended and unwanted consequences of economic development and globalization. These consequences include social exclusion, loss of cultural heritage, and environmental and ecological problems.

A comparison of factors influencing perceived risk by French and Australian cyclists and drivers

Differences in the levels of risk perceived by cyclists and car drivers may contribute to the dangers in their interactions. Levels of perceived risk have been shown to vary according to personal and environmental factors and between countries. Cycling rates in France are higher than in Australia, particularly among women. This study investigated whether cultural differences between France and Australia are reflected in perceived risks for experienced adult cyclists and drivers in the two countries. In online surveys, regular cyclists (France 336, Australia 444) and drivers (France 92, Australia 151) were asked to rate the level of risk in six situations: failure to yield; going through a red light; not signalling when turning; swerving; tail-gating; and not checking traffic. The effects of type of interacting vehicle and participant type on perceived risk were similar in France and Australia. However, the influence of responsibility for the risky behaviour differed according to participant type, type of situation and nationality. When the bicycle rider committed the road rule violation, Australian cyclists and drivers gave higher risk ratings than French cyclists and drivers. In both countries, cyclists rated themselves significantly higher than drivers on the perceived control and overconfidence subscales of the perceived skill measure. The French cyclists rated themselves higher than Australian cyclists on these scales, which could be responsible for overall lower perceived risk levels when interacting with a bike. Australian cyclists rated themselves significantly lower than drivers on the incompetence subscale but French cyclists rated themselves higher than drivers. In both countries incompetence scores were positively related to levels of perceived risk. Weekly time was associated with perceived risk in Australia but not in France. Frequency of traffic violations was not associated with perceived risk in either country. In conclusion, levels of perceived risk differed between drivers and cyclists in both countries and were influenced by type of interacting vehicle, experience and perceived skill. However, some differences between the results from the two countries merit further investigation to shed light on potential improvements in safety and cycling participation.

Utilizing reactive capability of PV inverters and battery systems to improve voltage profile of a residential distribution feeder

Significant increase in installation of rooftop Photovoltaic (PV) in the Low-Voltage (LV) residential distribution network has resulted in over voltage problems. Moreover, increasing peak demand creates voltage dip problems and make voltage profile even worse. Utilizing the reactive power capability of PV inverter (RCPVI) can improve the voltage profile to some extent. Resistive caharcteristic (higher R/X ratio) limits the effectiveness of reactive power to provide voltage support in distribution network. Battery Energy Storage (BES), whereas, can store the excess PV generation during high solar insolation time and supply the stored energy back to the grid during peak demand. A coordinated algorithm is developed in this paper to use the reactive capability of PV inverter and BES with droop control. Proposed algorithm is capable to cater the severe voltage violation problem using RCPVI and BES. A signal flow is also mentioned in this research work to ensure smooth communication between all the equipments. Finally the developed algorithm is validated in a test distribution network.

Can’t we all just get along? A qualitative investigation of the cognitive processes motivating driver aggression.

Although driver aggression has been identified as contributing to crashes, current understanding of the fundamental causes of the behaviour is poor. Two key reasons for this are evident. Firstly, existing research has been largely atheoretical, with no unifying conceptual framework guiding investigation. Secondly, emphasis on observable behaviours has resulted in limited knowledge of the underlying thought processes that motivate behaviour. Since driving is fundamentally a social situation, requiring drivers to interpret on-road events, insight regarding these perception and appraisal processes is paramount in advancing understanding of the underlying causes. Thus, the current study aimed to explore the cognitive appraisal processes involved in driver aggression, using a conceptual model founded on the General Aggression Model (Anderson & Bushman, 2002). The present results reflect the first of several studies testing this model. Participants completed 3 structured driving diaries to explore perceptions and cognitions. Thematic analysis of diaries identified several cognitive themes. The first, ‘driving etiquette’ concerned an implied code of awareness and consideration for other motorists, breaches of which were strongly associated with reports of anger and frustration. Such breaches were considered intentional; attributed to dispositional traits of another driver, and precipitated the second theme, ‘justified retaliation’. This theme showed that drivers view their aggressive behaviour as warranted, to convey criticism towards another motorist’s etiquette violation. However, the third theme, ‘superiority’ suggested that those refraining from an aggressive response were motivated by a desire to perceive themselves as ‘better’ than the offending motorists. Collectively, the themes indicate deep-seated and complex thought patterns underlying driver aggression, and suggest the behaviour will be challenging to modify. Implications of these themes in relation to the proposed model will be discussed, and continued research will explore these cognitive processes further, to examine their interaction with person-related factors.

Setting limits to laughter : university teaching and the boundaries of humour

This paper forms one part of a broadly-based study into the use of humour within tertiary teaching. One theme to emerge from semi-structured, in-depth interviews with university academics concerns the setting of boundaries to the appropriate use of humour within lectures and tutorials. Following the ‘benign violations’ theory of humour—wherein, to be funny, a situation/statement must be some kind of a social violation, that violation must be regarded as relatively benign, and the two ideas must be held simultaneously—this paper suggests that the willingness of academics to use particular types of humour in their teaching revolves around the complexities of determining the margins of the benign. These margins are shaped in part by pedagogic limitations, but also by professional delimitations. In terms of limitations, the boundaries of humour are set by the academic environment of the university, by the characteristics of different cohorts of students, and by what those students are prepare to laugh at. In terms of delimitations—where humour choice is moderated, not by the possibility of immediate laughter, but rather by the consequences of that choice—academic seniority and security play a large role in determining what kinds of humour will be used, and where boundaries are to be set. The central conclusion here is that formal maxims of humour use—‘Never tease students’, ‘Don’t joke about potentially sensitive issues’—fail to account for the complexity of teaching relationships, for the differences between student cohorts, and for the talents and standing of particular teachers.

Smart coordinated distribution system control to enable high level penetration of rooftop PVs

This thesis addresses voltage violation problem, the most critical issue associated with high level penetration of photovoltaic (PV) in electricity distribution network. A coordinated control algorithm using the reactive power from PV inverter and integrated battery energy storage has been developed and investigated in different network scenarios in the thesis. Probable variations associated with solar generation, end-user participation and network parameters are also considered. Furthermore, a unified data model and well-defined communication protocol to ensure the smooth coordination between all the components during the operation of the algorithm is described. Finally this thesis incorporated the uncertainties of solar generation using probabilistic load flow analysis.

Lecturing and the limits of laughter

The literature on humour in teaching frequently defaults to a series of maxims about how it can be used most appropriately: ‘Never tease students', ‘Don't joke about sensitive issues', ‘Never use laughter for disciplinary purposes'. This paper outlines recent research into the boundaries of humour-use within teacher education, which itself forms one part of a large scale, broadly-based study into the use of humour within tertiary teaching. This particular part of the research involves semi-structured, in-depth interviews with university academics. Following the ‘benign violations' theory of humour - wherein, to be funny, a situation/statement must be some kind of a social violation, that violation must be regarded as relatively benign, and the two ideas must be held simultaneously - this paper suggests that the willingness of academics to use particular types of humour in their teaching revolves around the complexities of determining the margins of ‘the benign'. These margins are shaped in part by pedagogic limitations, but also by professional delimitations. In terms of limitations, the boundaries of humour are set by the academic environment of the university, by the characteristics of different cohorts of students, and by what those students are prepare to laugh at. In terms of delimitations, most academics are prepared to tease their student, and many are prepared to use laughter as a form of discipline, however their own humour orientation, academic seniority, and employment security play a large role in determining what kinds of humour will be used, and where boundaries will be set. The central conclusion here is that formal maxims of humour provide little more than vague strategic guidelines, largely failing to account for the complexity of teaching relationships, for the differences between student cohorts, and for the talents and standing of particular teachers.

A probabilistic framework for analysing the compositionality of conceptual combinations

Conceptual combination performs a fundamental role in creating the broad range of compound phrases utilised in everyday language. While the systematicity and productivity of language provide a strong argument in favour of assuming compositionality, this very assumption is still regularly questioned in both cognitive science and philosophy. This article provides a novel probabilistic framework for assessing whether the semantics of conceptual combinations are compositional, and so can be considered as a function of the semantics of the constituent concepts, or not. Rather than adjudicating between different grades of compositionality, the framework presented here contributes formal methods for determining a clear dividing line between compositional and non-compositional semantics. Compositionality is equated with a joint probability distribution modelling how the constituent concepts in the combination are interpreted. Marginal selectivity is emphasised as a pivotal probabilistic constraint for the application of the Bell/CH and CHSH systems of inequalities (referred to collectively as Bell-type). Non-compositionality is then equated with either a failure of marginal selectivity, or, in the presence of marginal selectivity, with a violation of Bell-type inequalities. In both non-compositional scenarios, the conceptual combination cannot be modelled using a joint probability distribution with variables corresponding to the interpretation of the individual concepts. The framework is demonstrated by applying it to an empirical scenario of twenty-four non-lexicalised conceptual combinations.

The Driver Behaviour Questionnaire as accident predictor: A methodological re-meta-analysis

Problem The Manchester Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) is the most commonly used self-report tool in traffic safety research and applied settings. It has been claimed that the violation factor of this instrument predicts accident involvement, which was supported by a previous meta-analysis. However, that analysis did not test for methodological effects, or include contacting researchers to obtain unpublished results. Method The present study re-analysed studies on prediction of accident involvement from DBQ factors, including lapses, and many unpublished effects. Tests of various types of dissemination bias and common method variance were undertaken. Results Outlier analysis showed that some effects were probably not reliable data, but excluding them did not change the results. For correlations between violations and crashes, tendencies for published effects to be larger than unpublished ones and for effects to decrease over time were observed, but were not significant. Also, analysis using the proxy of the mean of accidents in studies indicated that studies where effects for violations are unknown have smaller effect sizes. These differences indicate dissemination bias. Studies using self-reported accidents as dependent variables had much larger effects than those using recorded accident data. Also, zero-order correlations were larger than partial correlations that controlled for exposure. Similarly, violations/accidents effects were strong only when there was also a strong correlation between accidents and exposure. Overall, the true effect is probably very close to zero (r<.07) for violations versus traffic accident involvement, depending upon which systematic tendencies in the data are controlled for. Conclusions: Methodological factors and dissemination bias have inflated the mean effect size of the DBQ in the published literature. Strong evidence of various artefactual effects is apparent. Practical Applications A greater level of care should be taken if the DBQ continues to be used in traffic safety research. Also, validation of self-reports should be more comprehensive in the future, taking into account the possibility of common method variance.

An evaluation of the effectiveness of Value-at-Risk (VaR) models for Australian banks under Basel III

This study compares Value-at-Risk (VaR) measures for Australian banks over a period that includes the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) to determine whether the methodology and parameter selection are important for capital adequacy holdings that will ultimately support a bank in a crisis period. VaR methodology promoted under Basel II was largely criticised during the GFC for its failure to capture downside risk. However, results from this study indicate that 1-year parametric and historical models produce better measures of VaR than models with longer time frames. VaR estimates produced using Monte Carlo simulations show a high percentage of violations but with lower average magnitude of a violation when they occur. VaR estimates produced by the ARMA GARCH model also show a relatively high percentage of violations, however, the average magnitude of a violation is quite low. Our findings support the design of the revised Basel II VaR methodology which has also been adopted under Basel III.