Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Sequences Generated by Product Autoregressive Models

The classical methods of analysing time series by Box-Jenkins approach assume that the observed series uctuates around changing levels with constant variance. That is, the time series is assumed to be of homoscedastic nature. However, the nancial time series exhibits the presence of heteroscedasticity in the sense that, it possesses non-constant conditional variance given the past observations. So, the analysis of nancial time series, requires the modelling of such variances, which may depend on some time dependent factors or its own past values. This lead to introduction of several classes of models to study the behaviour of nancial time series. See Taylor (1986), Tsay (2005), Rachev et al. (2007). The class of models, used to describe the evolution of conditional variances is referred to as stochastic volatility modelsThe stochastic models available to analyse the conditional variances, are based on either normal or log-normal distributions. One of the objectives of the present study is to explore the possibility of employing some non-Gaussian distributions to model the volatility sequences and then study the behaviour of the resulting return series. This lead us to work on the related problem of statistical inference, which is the main contribution of the thesis

Some New Classes of Orthogonal Polynomials and Special Functions

In dieser Dissertation präsentieren wir zunächst eine Verallgemeinerung der üblichen Sturm-Liouville-Probleme mit symmetrischen Lösungen und erklären eine umfassendere Klasse. Dann führen wir einige neue Klassen orthogonaler Polynome und spezieller Funktionen ein, welche sich aus dieser symmetrischen Verallgemeinerung ableiten lassen. Als eine spezielle Konsequenz dieser Verallgemeinerung führen wir ein Polynomsystem mit vier freien Parametern ein und zeigen, dass in diesem System fast alle klassischen symmetrischen orthogonalen Polynome wie die Legendrepolynome, die Chebyshevpolynome erster und zweiter Art, die Gegenbauerpolynome, die verallgemeinerten Gegenbauerpolynome, die Hermitepolynome, die verallgemeinerten Hermitepolynome und zwei weitere neue endliche Systeme orthogonaler Polynome enthalten sind. All diese Polynome können direkt durch das neu eingeführte System ausgedrückt werden. Ferner bestimmen wir alle Standardeigenschaften des neuen Systems, insbesondere eine explizite Darstellung, eine Differentialgleichung zweiter Ordnung, eine generische Orthogonalitätsbeziehung sowie eine generische Dreitermrekursion. Außerdem benutzen wir diese Erweiterung, um die assoziierten Legendrefunktionen, welche viele Anwendungen in Physik und Ingenieurwissenschaften haben, zu verallgemeinern, und wir zeigen, dass diese Verallgemeinerung Orthogonalitätseigenschaft und -intervall erhält. In einem weiteren Kapitel der Dissertation studieren wir detailliert die Standardeigenschaften endlicher orthogonaler Polynomsysteme, welche sich aus der üblichen Sturm-Liouville-Theorie ergeben und wir zeigen, dass sie orthogonal bezüglich der Fisherschen F-Verteilung, der inversen Gammaverteilung und der verallgemeinerten t-Verteilung sind. Im nächsten Abschnitt der Dissertation betrachten wir eine vierparametrige Verallgemeinerung der Studentschen t-Verteilung. Wir zeigen, dass diese Verteilung gegen die Normalverteilung konvergiert, wenn die Anzahl der Stichprobe gegen Unendlich strebt. Eine ähnliche Verallgemeinerung der Fisherschen F-Verteilung konvergiert gegen die chi-Quadrat-Verteilung. Ferner führen wir im letzten Abschnitt der Dissertation einige neue Folgen spezieller Funktionen ein, welche Anwendungen bei der Lösung in Kugelkoordinaten der klassischen Potentialgleichung, der Wärmeleitungsgleichung und der Wellengleichung haben. Schließlich erklären wir zwei neue Klassen rationaler orthogonaler hypergeometrischer Funktionen, und wir zeigen unter Benutzung der Fouriertransformation und der Parsevalschen Gleichung, dass es sich um endliche Orthogonalsysteme mit Gewichtsfunktionen vom Gammatyp handelt.

Convex linear combination processes for compositions

Aitchison and Bacon-Shone (1999) considered convex linear combinations of compositions. In other words, they investigated compositions of compositions, where the mixing composition follows a logistic Normal distribution (or a perturbation process) and the compositions being mixed follow a logistic Normal distribution. In this paper, I investigate the extension to situations where the mixing composition varies with a number of dimensions. Examples would be where the mixing proportions vary with time or distance or a combination of the two. Practical situations include a river where the mixing proportions vary along the river, or across a lake and possibly with a time trend. This is illustrated with a dataset similar to that used in the Aitchison and Bacon-Shone paper, which looked at how pollution in a loch depended on the pollution in the three rivers that feed the loch. Here, I explicitly model the variation in the linear combination across the loch, assuming that the mean of the logistic Normal distribution depends on the river flows and relative distance from the source origins

Discrete and continuous compositions

This paper examines a dataset which is modeled well by the Poisson-Log Normal process and by this process mixed with Log Normal data, which are both turned into compositions. This generates compositional data that has zeros without any need for conditional models or assuming that there is missing or censored data that needs adjustment. It also enables us to model dependence on covariates and within the composition

A comparison of the alr and ilr transformations for kernel density estimation of compositional data

In a seminal paper, Aitchison and Lauder (1985) introduced classical kernel density estimation techniques in the context of compositional data analysis. Indeed, they gave two options for the choice of the kernel to be used in the kernel estimator. One of these kernels is based on the use the alr transformation on the simplex SD jointly with the normal distribution on RD-1. However, these authors themselves recognized that this method has some deficiencies. A method for overcoming these dificulties based on recent developments for compositional data analysis and multivariate kernel estimation theory, combining the ilr transformation with the use of the normal density with a full bandwidth matrix, was recently proposed in Martín-Fernández, Chacón and Mateu- Figueras (2006). Here we present an extensive simulation study that compares both methods in practice, thus exploring the finite-sample behaviour of both estimators

Statistical treatment of grain-size curves and empirical distributions: densities as compositions?

The preceding two editions of CoDaWork included talks on the possible consideration of densities as infinite compositions: Egozcue and D´ıaz-Barrero (2003) extended the Euclidean structure of the simplex to a Hilbert space structure of the set of densities within a bounded interval, and van den Boogaart (2005) generalized this to the set of densities bounded by an arbitrary reference density. From the many variations of the Hilbert structures available, we work with three cases. For bounded variables, a basis derived from Legendre polynomials is used. For variables with a lower bound, we standardize them with respect to an exponential distribution and express their densities as coordinates in a basis derived from Laguerre polynomials. Finally, for unbounded variables, a normal distribution is used as reference, and coordinates are obtained with respect to a Hermite-polynomials-based basis. To get the coordinates, several approaches can be considered. A numerical accuracy problem occurs if one estimates the coordinates directly by using discretized scalar products. Thus we propose to use a weighted linear regression approach, where all k- order polynomials are used as predictand variables and weights are proportional to the reference density. Finally, for the case of 2-order Hermite polinomials (normal reference) and 1-order Laguerre polinomials (exponential), one can also derive the coordinates from their relationships to the classical mean and variance. Apart of these theoretical issues, this contribution focuses on the application of this theory to two main problems in sedimentary geology: the comparison of several grain size distributions, and the comparison among different rocks of the empirical distribution of a property measured on a batch of individual grains from the same rock or sediment, like their composition

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