Estimation of productivity in Korean electric power plants:a semiparametric smooth coefficient model

This paper analyzes the impact of load factor, facility and generator types on the productivity of Korean electric power plants. In order to capture important differences in the effect of load policy on power output, we use a semiparametric smooth coefficient (SPSC) model that allows us to model heterogeneous performances across power plants and over time by allowing underlying technologies to be heterogeneous. The SPSC model accommodates both continuous and discrete covariates. Various specification tests are conducted to assess the performance of the SPSC model. Using a unique generator level panel dataset spanning the period 1995-2006, we find that the impact of load factor, generator and facility types on power generation varies substantially in terms of magnitude and significance across different plant characteristics. The results have strong implications for generation policy in Korea as outlined in this study.

Fluctuation-driven traffic congestion in a scale-free model of the Internet

In studies of complex heterogeneous networks, particularly of the Internet, significant attention was paid to analysing network failures caused by hardware faults or overload. There network reaction was modelled as rerouting of traffic away from failed or congested elements. Here we model network reaction to congestion on much shorter time scales when the input traffic rate through congested routes is reduced. As an example we consider the Internet where local mismatch between demand and capacity results in traffic losses. We describe the onset of congestion as a phase transition characterised by strong, albeit relatively short-lived, fluctuations of losses caused by noise in input traffic and exacerbated by the heterogeneous nature of the network manifested in a power-law load distribution. The fluctuations may result in the network strongly overreacting to the first signs of congestion by significantly reducing input traffic along the communication paths where congestion is utterly negligible. © 2013 IEEE.

Simulation modeling of phytoplankton dynamics in a large eutrophic river, Hungary – Danubian Phytoplankton Growth Model (DPGM)

Ecological models have often been used in order to answer questions that are in the limelight of recent researches such as the possible effects of climate change. The methodology of tactical models is a very useful tool comparison to those complex models requiring relatively large set of input parameters. In this study, a theoretical strategic model (TEGM ) was adapted to the field data on the basis of a 24-year long monitoring database of phytoplankton in the Danube River at the station of G¨od, Hungary (at 1669 river kilometer – hereafter referred to as “rkm”). The Danubian Phytoplankton Growth Model (DPGM) is able to describe the seasonal dynamics of phytoplankton biomass (mg L−1) based on daily temperature, but takes the availability of light into consideration as well. In order to improve fitting, the 24-year long database was split in two parts in accordance with environmental sustainability. The period of 1979–1990 has a higher level of nutrient excess compared with that of the 1991–2002. The authors assume that, in the above-mentioned periods, phytoplankton responded to temperature in two different ways, thus two submodels were developed, DPGM-sA and DPGMsB. Observed and simulated data correlated quite well. Findings suggest that linear temperature rise brings drastic change to phytoplankton only in case of high nutrient load and it is mostly realized through the increase of yearly total biomass.

Continuous property measurement techniques and physics based mathematical model for frost growth control

The development of a new set of frost property measurement techniques to be used in the control of frost growth and defrosting processes in refrigeration systems was investigated. Holographic interferometry and infrared thermometry were used to measure the temperature of the frost-air interface, while a beam element load sensor was used to obtain the weight of a deposited frost layer. The proposed measurement techniques were tested for the cases of natural and forced convection, and the characteristic charts were obtained for a set of operational conditions. ^ An improvement of existing frost growth mathematical models was also investigated. The early stage of frost nucleation was commonly not considered in these models and instead an initial value of layer thickness and porosity was regularly assumed. A nucleation model to obtain the droplet diameter and surface porosity at the end of the early frosting period was developed. The drop-wise early condensation in a cold flat plate under natural convection to a hot (room temperature) and humid air was modeled. A nucleation rate was found, and the relation of heat to mass transfer (Lewis number) was obtained. It was found that the Lewis number was much smaller than unity, which is the standard value usually assumed for most frosting numerical models. The nucleation model was validated against available experimental data for the early nucleation and full growth stages of the frosting process. ^ The combination of frost top temperature and weight variation signals can now be used to control the defrosting timing and the developed early nucleation model can now be used to simulate the entire process of frost growth in any surface material. ^

An agent-based model of team coordination and performance

This research is based on the premises that teams can be designed to optimize its performance, and appropriate team coordination is a significant factor to team outcome performance. Contingency theory argues that the effectiveness of a team depends on the right fit of the team design factors to the particular job at hand. Therefore, organizations need computational tools capable of predict the performance of different configurations of teams. This research created an agent-based model of teams called the Team Coordination Model (TCM). The TCM estimates the coordination load and performance of a team, based on its composition, coordination mechanisms, and job’s structural characteristics. The TCM can be used to determine the team’s design characteristics that most likely lead the team to achieve optimal performance. The TCM is implemented as an agent-based discrete-event simulation application built using JAVA and Cybele Pro agent architecture. The model implements the effect of individual team design factors on team processes, but the resulting performance emerges from the behavior of the agents. These team member agents use decision making, and explicit and implicit mechanisms to coordinate the job. The model validation included the comparison of the TCM’s results with statistics from a real team and with the results predicted by the team performance literature. An illustrative 26-1 fractional factorial experimental design demonstrates the application of the simulation model to the design of a team. The results from the ANOVA analysis have been used to recommend the combination of levels of the experimental factors that optimize the completion time for a team that runs sailboats races. This research main contribution to the team modeling literature is a model capable of simulating teams working on complex job environments. The TCM implements a stochastic job structure model capable of capturing some of the complexity not capture by current models. In a stochastic job structure, the tasks required to complete the job change during the team execution of the job. This research proposed three new types of dependencies between tasks required to model a job as a stochastic structure. These dependencies are conditional sequential, single-conditional sequential, and the merge dependencies.

Lateral load distribution for curved steel I -girder bridges

Lateral load distribution factor is a key factor for designing and analyzing curved steel I-girder bridges. In this dissertation, the effects of various parameters on moment and shear distribution for curved steel I-girder bridges were studied using the Finite Element Method (FEM). The parameters considered in the study were: radius of curvature, girder spacing, overhang, span length, number of girders, ratio of girder stiffness to overall bridge stiffness, slab thickness, girder longitudinal stiffness, cross frame spacing, and girder torsional inertia. The variations of these parameters were based on the statistical analysis of the real bridge database, which was created by extracting data from existing or newly designed curved steel I-girder bridge plans collected all over the nation. A hypothetical bridge superstructure model that was made of all the mean values of the data was created and used for the parameter study. ^ The study showed that cross frame spacing and girder torsional inertia had negligible effects. Other parameters had been identified as key parameters. Regression analysis was conducted based on the FEM analysis results and simplified formulas for predicting positive moment, negative moment, and shear distribution factors were developed. Thirty-three real bridges were analyzed using FEM to verify the formulas. The ratio of the distribution factor obtained from the formula to the one obtained from the FEM analysis, which was referred to as the g-ratio, was examined. The results showed that the standard deviation of the g-ratios was within 0.04 to 0.06 and the mean value of the g-ratios was greater than unity by one standard deviation. This indicates that the formulas are conservative in most cases but not overly conservative. The final formulas are similar in format to the current American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) Load Resistance and Factor Design (LRFD) specifications. ^ The developed formulas were compared with other simplified methods. The outcomes showed that the proposed formulas had the most accurate results among all methods. ^ The formulas developed in this study will assist bridge engineers and researchers in predicting the actual live load distribution in horizontally curved steel I-girder bridges. ^

A model for continuous measurement of drilled shaft diameter during construction

Non-Destructive Testing (NDT) of deep foundations has become an integral part of the industry's standard manufacturing processes. It is not unusual for the evaluation of the integrity of the concrete to include the measurement of ultrasonic wave speeds. Numerous methods have been proposed that use the propagation speed of ultrasonic waves to check the integrity of concrete for drilled shaft foundations. All such methods evaluate the integrity of the concrete inside the cage and between the access tubes. The integrity of the concrete outside the cage remains to be considered to determine the location of the border between the concrete and the soil in order to obtain the diameter of the drilled shaft. It is also economic to devise a methodology to obtain the diameter of the drilled shaft using the Cross-Hole Sonic Logging system (CSL). Performing such a methodology using the CSL and following the CSL tests is performed and used to check the integrity of the inside concrete, thus allowing the determination of the drilled shaft diameter without having to set up another NDT device.^ This proposed new method is based on the installation of galvanized tubes outside the shaft across from each inside tube, and performing the CSL test between the inside and outside tubes. From the performed experimental work a model is developed to evaluate the relationship between the thickness of concrete and the ultrasonic wave properties using signal processing. The experimental results show that there is a direct correlation between concrete thicknesses outside the cage and maximum amplitude of the received signal obtained from frequency domain data. This study demonstrates how this new method to measuring the diameter of drilled shafts during construction using a NDT method overcomes the limitations of currently-used methods. ^ In the other part of study, a new method is proposed to visualize and quantify the extent and location of the defects. It is based on a color change in the frequency amplitude of the signal recorded by the receiver probe in the location of defects and it is called Frequency Tomography Analysis (FTA). Time-domain data is transferred to frequency-domain data of the signals propagated between tubes using Fast Fourier Transform (FFT). Then, distribution of the FTA will be evaluated. This method is employed after CSL has determined the high probability of an anomaly in a given area and is applied to improve location accuracy and to further characterize the feature. The technique has a very good resolution and clarifies the exact depth location of any void or defect through the length of the drilled shaft for the voids inside the cage. ^ The last part of study also evaluates the effect of voids inside and outside the reinforcement cage and corrosion in the longitudinal bars on the strength and axial load capacity of drilled shafts. The objective is to quantify the extent of loss in axial strength and stiffness of drilled shafts due to presence of different types of symmetric voids and corrosion throughout their lengths.^

The FIREDASS (Fire Detection and Suppression Simulation) Model

The FIREDASS (FIRE Detection And Suppression Simulation) project is concerned with the development of fine water mist systems as a possible replacement for the halon fire suppression system currently used in aircraft cargo holds. The project is funded by the European Commission, under the BRITE EURAM programme. The FIREDASS consortium is made up of a combination of Industrial, Academic, Research and Regulatory partners. As part of this programme of work, a computational model has been developed to help engineers optimise the design of the water mist suppression system. This computational model is based on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and is composed of the following components: fire model; mist model; two-phase radiation model; suppression model and detector/activation model. The fire model - developed by the University of Greenwich - uses prescribed release rates for heat and gaseous combustion products to represent the fire load. Typical release rates have been determined through experimentation conducted by SINTEF. The mist model - developed by the University of Greenwich - is a Lagrangian particle tracking procedure that is fully coupled to both the gas phase and the radiation field. The radiation model - developed by the National Technical University of Athens - is described using a six-flux radiation model. The suppression model - developed by SINTEF and the University of Greenwich - is based on an extinguishment crietrion that relies on oxygen concentration and temperature. The detector/ activation model - developed by Cerberus - allows the configuration of many different detector and mist configurations to be tested within the computational model. These sub-models have been integrated by the University of Greenwich into the FIREDASS software package. The model has been validated using data from the SINTEF/GEC test campaigns and it has been found that the computational model gives good agreement with these experimental results. The best agreement is obtained at the ceiling which is where the detectors and misting nozzles would be located in a real system. In this paper the model is briefly described and some results from the validation of the fire and mist model are presented.

A fuzzy clustering approach to a demand response model

This paper proposes a novel demand response model using a fuzzy subtractive cluster approach. The model development provides support to domestic consumer decisions on controllable loads management, considering consumers' consumption needs and the appropriate load shape or rescheduling in order to achieve possible economic benefits. The model based on fuzzy subtractive clustering method considers clusters of domestic consumption covering an adequate consumption range. Analysis of different scenarios is presented considering available electric power and electric energy prices. Simulation results are presented and conclusions of the proposed demand response model are discussed. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of Thresholds and Load Patterns when Executing HPC Applications with Cloud Elasticity

Elasticity is one of the most known capabilities related to cloud computing, being largely deployed reactively using thresholds. In this way, maximum and minimum limits are used to drive resource allocation and deallocation actions, leading to the following problem statements: How can cloud users set the threshold values to enable elasticity in their cloud applications? And what is the impact of the application’s load pattern in the elasticity? This article tries to answer these questions for iterative high performance computing applications, showing the impact of both thresholds and load patterns on application performance and resource consumption. To accomplish this, we developed a reactive and PaaS-based elasticity model called AutoElastic and employed it over a private cloud to execute a numerical integration application. Here, we are presenting an analysis of best practices and possible optimizations regarding the elasticity and HPC pair. Considering the results, we observed that the maximum threshold influences the application time more than the minimum one. We concluded that threshold values close to 100% of CPU load are directly related to a weaker reactivity, postponing resource reconfiguration when its activation in advance could be pertinent for reducing the application runtime.

Development of error correction techniques for nitrate-N load estimation models

Excess nutrient loads carried by streams and rivers are a great concern for environmental resource managers. In agricultural regions, excess loads are transported downstream to receiving water bodies, potentially causing algal blooms, which could lead to numerous ecological problems. To better understand nutrient load transport, and to develop appropriate water management plans, it is important to have accurate estimates of annual nutrient loads. This study used a Monte Carlo sub-sampling method and error-corrected statistical models to estimate annual nitrate-N loads from two watersheds in central Illinois. The performance of three load estimation methods (the seven-parameter log-linear model, the ratio estimator, and the flow-weighted averaging estimator) applied at one-, two-, four-, six-, and eight-week sampling frequencies were compared. Five error correction techniques; the existing composite method, and four new error correction techniques developed in this study; were applied to each combination of sampling frequency and load estimation method. On average, the most accurate error reduction technique, (proportional rectangular) resulted in 15% and 30% more accurate load estimates when compared to the most accurate uncorrected load estimation method (ratio estimator) for the two watersheds. Using error correction methods, it is possible to design more cost-effective monitoring plans by achieving the same load estimation accuracy with fewer observations. Finally, the optimum combinations of monitoring threshold and sampling frequency that minimizes the number of samples required to achieve specified levels of accuracy in load estimation were determined. For one- to three-weeks sampling frequencies, combined threshold/fixed-interval monitoring approaches produced the best outcomes, while fixed-interval-only approaches produced the most accurate results for four- to eight-weeks sampling frequencies.

Dynamic model development of adiabatic compressed air energy storage

The share of variable renewable energy in electricity generation has seen exponential growth during the recent decades, and due to the heightened pursuit of environmental targets, the trend is to continue with increased pace. The two most important resources, wind and insolation both bear the burden of intermittency, creating a need for regulation and posing a threat to grid stability. One possibility to deal with the imbalance between demand and generation is to store electricity temporarily, which was addressed in this thesis by implementing a dynamic model of adiabatic compressed air energy storage (CAES) with Apros dynamic simulation software. Based on literature review, the existing models due to their simplifications were found insufficient for studying transient situations, and despite of its importance, the investigation of part load operation has not yet been possible with satisfactory precision. As a key result of the thesis, the cycle efficiency at design point was simulated to be 58.7%, which correlated well with literature information, and was validated through analytical calculations. The performance at part load was validated against models shown in literature, showing good correlation. By introducing wind resource and electricity demand data to the model, grid operation of CAES was studied. In order to enable the dynamic operation, start-up and shutdown sequences were approximated in dynamic environment, as far as is known, the first time, and a user component for compressor variable guide vanes (VGV) was implemented. Even in the current state, the modularly designed model offers a framework for numerous studies. The validity of the model is limited by the accuracy of VGV correlations at part load, and in addition the implementation of heat losses to the thermal energy storage is necessary to enable longer simulations. More extended use of forecasts is one of the important targets of development, if the system operation is to be optimised in future.

THE INFLUENCE OF MOTIVATION ON EMOTION REGULATION AND MOTOR PERFORMANCE: EXAMINATION OF A NEURO-AFFECTIVE MODEL

Mental stress is known to disrupt the execution of motor performance and can lead to decrements in the quality of performance, however, individuals have shown significant differences regarding how fast and well they can perform a skilled task according to how well they can manage stress and emotion. The purpose of this study was to advance our understanding of how the brain modulates emotional reactivity under different motivational states to achieve differential performance in a target shooting task that requires precision visuomotor coordination. In order to study the interactions in emotion regulatory brain areas (i.e. the ventral striatum, amygdala, prefrontal cortex) and the autonomic nervous system, reward and punishment interventions were employed and the resulting behavioral and physiological responses contrasted to observe the changes in shooting performance (i.e. shooting accuracy and stability of aim) and neuro-cognitive processes (i.e. cognitive load and reserve) during the shooting task. Thirty-five participants, aged 18 to 38 years, from the Reserve Officers’ Training Corp (ROTC) at the University of Maryland were recruited to take 30 shots at a bullseye target in three different experimental conditions. In the reward condition, $1 was added to their total balance for every 10-point shot. In the punishment condition, $1 was deducted from their total balance if they did not hit the 10-point area. In the neutral condition, no money was added or deducted from their total balance. When in the reward condition, which was reportedly most enjoyable and least stressful of the conditions, heart rate variability was found to be positively related to shooting scores, inversely related to variability in shooting performance and positively related to alpha power (i.e. less activation) in the left temporal region. In the punishment (and most stressful) condition, an increase in sympathetic response (i.e. increased LF/HF ratio) was positively related to jerking movements as well as variability of placement (on the target) in the shots taken. This, coupled with error monitoring activity in the anterior cingulate cortex, suggests evaluation of self-efficacy might be driving arousal regulation, thus affecting shooting performance. Better performers showed variable, increasing high-alpha power in the temporal region during the aiming period towards taking the shot which could indicate an adaptive strategy of engagement. They also showed lower coherence during hit shots than missed shots which was coupled with reduced jerking movements and better precision and accuracy. Frontal asymmetry measures revealed possible influence of the prefrontal lobe in driving this effect in reward and neutral conditions. The possible interactions, reasons behind these findings and implications are discussed.

A Model for Continuous Measurement of Drilled Shaft Diameter During Construction

Non-Destructive Testing (NDT) of deep foundations has become an integral part of the industry’s standard manufacturing processes. It is not unusual for the evaluation of the integrity of the concrete to include the measurement of ultrasonic wave speeds. Numerous methods have been proposed that use the propagation speed of ultrasonic waves to check the integrity of concrete for drilled shaft foundations. All such methods evaluate the integrity of the concrete inside the cage and between the access tubes. The integrity of the concrete outside the cage remains to be considered to determine the location of the border between the concrete and the soil in order to obtain the diameter of the drilled shaft. It is also economic to devise a methodology to obtain the diameter of the drilled shaft using the Cross-Hole Sonic Logging system (CSL). Performing such a methodology using the CSL and following the CSL tests is performed and used to check the integrity of the inside concrete, thus allowing the determination of the drilled shaft diameter without having to set up another NDT device. This proposed new method is based on the installation of galvanized tubes outside the shaft across from each inside tube, and performing the CSL test between the inside and outside tubes. From the performed experimental work a model is developed to evaluate the relationship between the thickness of concrete and the ultrasonic wave properties using signal processing. The experimental results show that there is a direct correlation between concrete thicknesses outside the cage and maximum amplitude of the received signal obtained from frequency domain data. This study demonstrates how this new method to measuring the diameter of drilled shafts during construction using a NDT method overcomes the limitations of currently-used methods. In the other part of study, a new method is proposed to visualize and quantify the extent and location of the defects. It is based on a color change in the frequency amplitude of the signal recorded by the receiver probe in the location of defects and it is called Frequency Tomography Analysis (FTA). Time-domain data is transferred to frequency-domain data of the signals propagated between tubes using Fast Fourier Transform (FFT). Then, distribution of the FTA will be evaluated. This method is employed after CSL has determined the high probability of an anomaly in a given area and is applied to improve location accuracy and to further characterize the feature. The technique has a very good resolution and clarifies the exact depth location of any void or defect through the length of the drilled shaft for the voids inside the cage. The last part of study also evaluates the effect of voids inside and outside the reinforcement cage and corrosion in the longitudinal bars on the strength and axial load capacity of drilled shafts. The objective is to quantify the extent of loss in axial strength and stiffness of drilled shafts due to presence of different types of symmetric voids and corrosion throughout their lengths.

Integration of a Sedimentation Module to a Hydrologic Model and its Application to a Mercury TMDL Analysis

This research is part of continued efforts to correlate the hydrology of East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) and Bear Creek (BC) with the long term distribution of mercury within the overland, subsurface, and river sub-domains. The main objective of this study was to add a sedimentation module (ECO Lab) capable of simulating the reactive transport mercury exchange mechanisms within sediments and porewater throughout the watershed. The enhanced model was then applied to a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) mercury analysis for EFPC. That application used historical precipitation, groundwater levels, river discharges, and mercury concentrations data that were retrieved from government databases and input to the model. The model was executed to reduce computational time, predict flow discharges, total mercury concentration, flow duration and mercury mass rate curves at key monitoring stations under various hydrological and environmental conditions and scenarios. The computational results provided insight on the relationship between discharges and mercury mass rate curves at various stations throughout EFPC, which is important to best understand and support the management mercury contamination and remediation efforts within EFPC.