Fragility of information cascades: an experimental study using elicited beliefs

This paper examines the occurrence and fragility of information cascades in two laboratory experiments. One group of low informed participants sequentially guess which of two states has been randomly chosen. In a matched pairs design, another group of high informed participants make similar guesses after having observed the guesses of the low informed participants. In the second experiment, participants' beliefs about the chosen state are elicited. In equilibrium, low informed players who observe an established pattern of identical guesses herd without regard to their private information whereas high informed players always guess according to their private information. Equilibrium behavior implies that information cascades emerge in the group of low informed participants, the belief based solely on cascade guesses is stationary, and information cascades are systematically broken by high informed participants endowed with private information contradicting the cascade guesses. Experimental results show that the behavior of low informed participants is qualitatively in line with the equilibrium prediction. Information cascades often emerge in our experiments. The tendency of low informed participants to engage in cascade behavior increases with the number of identical guesses. Our main finding is that information cascades are not fragile. The behavior of high informed participants differs markedly from the equilibrium prediction. Only one-third of laboratory cascades are broken by high informed participants endowed with private information contradicting the cascade guesses. The relative frequency of cascade breaks is 15% for the situations where five or more identical guesses are observed. Participants' elicited beliefs are strongly consistent with their own behavior and show that, unlike in equilibrium, the more cascade guesses participants observe the more they believe in the state favored by those guesses.

Road traffic congestion and public information - An experimental investigation

This paper reports laboratory experiments designed to study the impact of public information about past departure rates on congestion levels and travel costs. Our design is based on a discrete version of Arnott et al.'s (1990) bottleneck model. In all treatments, congestion occurs and the observed travel costs are quite similar to the predicted ones. Subjects' capacity to coordinate is not affected by the availability of public information on past departure rates, by the number of drivers or by the relative cost of delay. This seemingly absence of treatment effects is confirmed by our finding that a parameter-free reinforcement learning model best characterises individual behaviour.

‘Old wood’ effect in radiocarbon dating of prehistoric cremated bones?

Numerous reports of successful radiocarbon dating of cremated bones have emerged during the last decade. The success of radiocarbon dating cremated bones depends on the temperature during burning and the degree of recrystallisation of the inorganic bone matrix. During cremation bones undergo major morphological and mineralogical changes which have raised some interesting questions and discussion on the origin of the carbon source in archaeologically cremated bones. Recent laboratory experiments reveal that the properties of the combustion atmosphere play a significant role regarding the source carbon in cremated bones. Thus radiocarbon dating cremated bones is potentially dating the wood used for the cremation fire. Here we compare a high precision radiocarbon dated human bone with an associated dendrochronological age from an oak coffin. We find that the age discrepancy between the dendrochronological age and the cremated bone of 73 ± 26 14C yr is best accounted for by the so called ‘old wood’ effect.

Magnetic instability in a dilute circular rarefaction wave

The growth of magnetic fields in the density gradient of a rarefaction wave has been observed in simulations and in laboratory experiments. The thermal anisotropy of the electrons, which gives rise to the magnetic instability, is maintained by the ambipolar electric field. This simple mechanism could be important for the magnetic field amplification in astrophysical jets or in the interstellar medium ahead of supernova remnant shocks. The acceleration of protons and the generation of a magnetic field by the rarefaction wave, which is fed by an expanding circular plasma cloud, is examined here in form of a 2D particle-in-cell simulation. The core of the plasma cloud is modeled by immobile charges, and the mobile protons form a small ring close to the cloud's surface. The number density of mobile protons is thus less than that of the electrons. The protons of the rarefaction wave are accelerated to 1/10 of the electron thermal speed, and the acceleration results in a thermal anisotropy of the electron distribution in the entire plasma cloud. The instability in the rarefaction wave is outrun by a TM wave, which grows in the dense core distribution, and its magnetic field expands into the rarefaction wave. This expansion drives a secondary TE wave. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4769128]

Cationic Antimicrobial Peptide Cytotoxicity

Fluorescence microscopy serves as a valuable tool for assessing the structural integrity and viability of eukaryotic cells. Through the use of calcein AM and the DNA stain 4,6-diamidino-2 phenylindole (DAPI), cell viability and membrane integrity can be qualified. Our group has previously shown the ultra-short cationic antimicrobial peptide H-OOWW-NH₂; the amphibian derived 27-mer peptide Maximin-4and the ultra-short lipopeptide C₁₂-OOWW-NH₂ to be effective against a range of bacterial biofilms [1], displaying potential for use in the prevention of medical device-related infections [2]. Analysis of fluorescence micrographs, after staining with calcein AM and DAPI, shows the likely mode of cytotoxic action of cationic antimicrobial peptides and lipopeptides are via directmembrane disruption in eukaryotic cells. Selectivity is towards cidal action against prokaryotic cells, whose membranes are anionic in composition, such as those of bacteria, rather than for neutral zwitterionic membranes of eukaryotic cells. Membrane selectivity is determined by a multitude of physical parameters, particularly charge and hydrophobicity. The charge of the antimicrobial determines the extent of the initial electrostatic interactions with both prokaryotic and eukaryotic membranes, with a larger cationic charge favoring antimicrobial action. Tailoring of these properties is likely to be the key in successfully transferring antimicrobial peptides from laboratory experiments into clinical practice as safe pharmaceutical formulations.

Ecological impacts of invasive alien species along temperature gradients: testing the role of environmental matching

Invasive alien species (IAS) can cause substantive ecological impacts, and the role of temperature in mediating these impacts may become increasingly significant in a changing climate. Habitat conditions and physiological optima offer predictive information for IAS impacts in novel environments. Here, using meta-analysis and laboratory experiments, we tested the hypothesis that the impacts of IAS in the field are inversely correlated with the difference in their ambient and optimal temperatures. A meta-analysis of 29 studies of consumptive impacts of IAS in inland waters revealed that the impacts of fishes and crustaceans are higher at temperatures that more closely match their thermal growth optima. In particular, the maximum impact potential was constrained by increased differences between ambient and optimal temperatures, as indicated by the steeper slope of a quantile regression on the upper 25th percentile of impact data compared to that of a weighted linear regression on all data with measured variances. We complemented this study with an experimental analysis of the functional response - the relationship between predation rate and prey supply - of two invasive predators (freshwater mysid shrimp, Hemimysis anomala and Mysis diluviana) across relevant temperature gradients; both of these species have previously been found to exert strong community-level impacts that are corroborated by their functional responses to different prey items. The functional response experiments showed that maximum feeding rates of H. anomala and M. diluviana have distinct peaks near their respective thermal optima. Although variation in impacts may be caused by numerous abiotic or biotic habitat characteristics, both our analyses point to temperature as a key mediator of IAS impact levels in inland waters and suggest that IAS management should prioritize habitats in the invaded range that more closely match the thermal optima of targeted invaders.

Scaling of magneto-quantum-radiative hydrodynamic equations: From laser-produced plasmas to astrophysics

We introduce the equations of magneto-quantum-radiative hydrodynamics. By rewriting them in a dimensionless form, we obtain a set of parameters that describe scale-dependent ratios of characteristic hydrodynamic quantities. We discuss how these dimensionless parameters relate to the scaling between astrophysical observations and laboratory experiments.

Sputtering of oxygen ice by low energy ions

Naturally occurring ices lie on both interstellar dust grains and on celestial objects, such as those in the outer Solar system. These ices are continuously subjected to irradiation by ions from the solar wind and/or cosmic rays, which modify their surfaces. As a result, new molecular species may form which can be sputtered off into space or planetary atmospheres. We determined the experimental values of sputtering yields for irradiation of oxygen ice at 10 K by singly (He+, C+, N+, O+ and Ar+) and doubly (C2 +, N2 + and O2 +) charged ions with 4 keV kinetic energy. In these laboratory experiments, oxygen ice was deposited and irradiated by ions in an ultra high vacuum chamber at low temperature to simulate the environment of space. The number of molecules removed by sputtering was observed by measurement of the ice thickness using laser interferometry. Preliminary mass spectra were taken of sputtered species and of molecules formed in the ice by temperature programmed desorption (TPD). We find that the experimental sputtering yields increase approximately linearly with the projectile ion mass (or momentum squared) for all ions studied. No difference was found between the sputtering yields for singly and doubly charged ions of the same atom within the experimental uncertainty, as expected for a process dominated by momentum transfer. The experimental sputter yields are in good agreement with values calculated using a theoretical model except in the case of oxygen ions. Preliminary studies have shown molecular oxygen as the dominant species sputtered and TPD measurements indicate ozone formation.

Particle-in-cell simulation study of the interaction between a relativistically moving leptonic micro-cloud and ambient electrons

Context. The jets of compact accreting objects are composed of electrons and a mixture of positrons and ions. These outflows impinge on the interstellar or intergalactic medium and both plasmas interact via collisionless processes. Filamentation (beam-Weibel) instabilities give rise to the growth of strong electromagnetic fields. These fields thermalize the interpenetrating plasmas. 

Aims. Hitherto, the effects imposed by a spatial non-uniformity on filamentation instabilities have remained unexplored. We examine the interaction between spatially uniform background electrons and a minuscule cloud of electrons and positrons. The cloud size is comparable to that created in recent laboratory experiments and such clouds may exist close to internal and external shocks of leptonic jets. The purpose of our study is to determine the prevalent instabilities, their ability to generate electromagnetic fields and the mechanism, by which the lepton micro-cloud transfers energy to the background plasma. 

Methods. A square micro-cloud of equally dense electrons and positrons impinges in our particle-in-cell (PIC) simulation on a spatially uniform plasma at rest. The latter consists of electrons with a temperature of 1 keV and immobile ions. The initially charge- and current neutral micro-cloud has a temperature of 100 keV and a side length of 2.5 plasma skin depths of the micro-cloud. The side length is given in the reference frame of the background plasma. The mean speed of the micro-cloud corresponds to a relativistic factor of 15, which is relevant for laboratory experiments and for relativistic astrophysical outflows. The spatial distributions of the leptons and of the electromagnetic fields are examined at several times. 

Results. A filamentation instability develops between the magnetic field carried by the micro-cloud and the background electrons. The electromagnetic fields, which grow from noise levels, redistribute the electrons and positrons within the cloud, which boosts the peak magnetic field amplitude. The current density and the moduli of the electromagnetic fields grow aperiodically in time and steadily along the direction that is anti-parallel to the cloud's velocity vector. The micro-cloud remains conjoined during the simulation. The instability induces an electrostatic wakefield in the background plasma. 

Conclusions. Relativistic clouds of leptons can generate and amplify magnetic fields even if they have a microscopic size, which implies that the underlying processes can be studied in the laboratory. The interaction of the localized magnetic field and high-energy leptons will give rise to synchrotron jitter radiation. The wakefield in the background plasma dissipates the kinetic energy of the lepton cloud. Even the fastest lepton micro-clouds can be slowed down by this collisionless mechanism. Moderately fast charge- and current neutralized lepton micro-clouds will deposit their energy close to relativistic shocks and hence they do not constitute an energy loss mechanism for the shock.

Stability of Short-span Bridges Subject to Overtopping during Floods: Case Studies from UK and the USA

As a consequence of increased levels of flooding, largely attributable to urbanization of watersheds (and perhaps climate change, more frequent extreme rainfall events are occurring and threatening existing critical infrastructure. Many of which are short-span bridges over relatively small waterways (e.g., small rivers, streams and canals). Whilst these short-span bridges were designed, often many years ago, to pass relatively minor the then standard return-period floods, in recenttimes the failure incidence of such short-span bridges has been noticeably increasing. This is suggestive of insufficient hydraulic capacity or alternative failure mechanism not envisaged at the time of design e.g. foundation scour or undermining. This paper presen ts, and draws lessons, from bridge failures in Ireland and the USA. For example, in November 2009, the UK and Ireland were subjected to extraordinarily severe weather conditions for several days. The resulting flooding led to the collapse of three UK bridges that were generally 19th century masonry arch bridges, withrelatively shallow foundations. Parallel failure events have been observed in the USA. To date, knowledge of the combined effect of waterway erosion, bridge submergence, and geotechnical collapse has not been adequately studied. Recent research carried out considered the hydraulic analysis of short span bridges under flood conditions, but no consideration was given towards the likely damage to these structures due to erosive coupling of hydraulic and geotechnical factors. Some work has been done to predict the discharge downstream of an inundated arch, focusing onpredicting afflux, as opposed to bridge scour, under both pressurized and free-surface flows, but no ! predictive equation for scour under pressurized conditions was ever considered. The case studies this paper presents will be augmented by the initial findings from the laboratory experiments investigating the effects of surcharged flow and subsequent scour within the vicinity of single span arch bridges. Velocities profiles will be shown within the vicinity of the arch, in addition to the depth of consequent scour, for a series of flows and model spans. The data will be presented and correlated to the most recent predictive equations for submerged contraction and abutment scour. The accuracy of these equations is examined, and the findings used as a basis for developing further studies in relation to short span bridges.

Arsénio em águas subterrâneas em Portugal

Da totalidade da água existente na Terra, somente 1% diz respeito à água subterrânea, recurso finito e essencial para a sobrevivência do Homem. A composição química das águas subterrâneas é influência não só pela actividade humana, mas também pelas características químicas do substrato geológico. As rochas e os sedimentos funcionam como meio de transporte e armazém desse tipo de águas e a presença de certos minerais pode originar a contaminação natural das águas subterrâneas em elementos prejudiciais para o Homem. Um desses elementos é o arsénio. Uma vez que a concentração máxima admitida de arsénio para água consumo humano diminuiu dos anteriores 50 mg.l-1 para os actuais 10 mg.l-1,a probabilidade de encontrar concentrações naturais em arsénio em águas subterrâneas acima desse limite aumentou. Este trabalho visa estudar e compreender, através de ensaios laboratoriais, a interacção água/rocha em termos químicos e a mobilidade/comportamento do arsénio em seis zonas de Portugal Continental com contextos geológicos diferentes (Vila Flor – Formação Filito-Quartzítica, Baião – granitos, Cacia – sedimentos do Cretácico, Mamodeiro – sedimentos do Neogénico, Escusa – calcários dolomíticos e Beja - gabros). Para o efeito, nas zonas de estudo mencionadas foram colhidas amostras de rocha ou sedimento e de água subterrânea que foram analisadas para 36 e 76 elementos, respectivamente. A componente mineralógica e as fases suporte do As foram estudadas recorrendo à análise por difracção de raios X, microssonda electrónica e à aplicação da extracção química selectiva sequencial. A mobilização do As foi avaliada através da realização de ensaios de coluna e de agitação com hidrocarbonetos derivados do petróleo. No primeiro ensaio, a circulação de diferentes soluções com diferentes velocidades lineares no interior de colunas de vidro cheias de rocha moída, avaliou a presença de As associado a fases hidrossolúveis e biodisponíveis. No segundo, a agitação de rocha moída com água e hidrocarbonetos derivados do petróleo pretendeu avaliar o comportamento do As quando um aquífero apresenta uma contaminação com aquele tipo de hidrocarbonetos.

A cultura cerâmica no design da joalharia portuguesa

Este trabalho de investigação tem como objectivo contribuir para o aprofundamento de estudos vocacionados para o desenvolvimento de novos produtos, suportado pelo encontro entre duas Culturas do Fazer, a cerâmica e a joalharia, e orientado pela Cultura do Projecto, o design. A análise e a ponderação acerca dos pontos em comum entre estas duas culturas materiais, em particular no contexto português, são a base para a definição e a aplicação de um novo concept de produto, mediado por uma metodologia projectual e sustentado nas noções de Modularidade, de Arquétipo, de Tipologia, de Valor Semântico, de Valor Simbólico, de Sistema de Produto e de Design Estratégico. Esta dissertação desenvolve-se ao longo de duas partes, após uma introdução em que se define o objecto de estudo e a metodologia da investigação. A primeira parte tem quatro capítulos. O primeiro capítulo trata do enquadramento teórico da Cultura Cerâmica a partir de uma análise históricotipologica (desde a cultura mesopotâmica até ao século XXI) orientando-se para o contexto português: os lugares de produção cerâmica e o azulejo como portador de cultura. O segundo capítulo, centrando-se em Portugal como lugar de investigação, estuda a Joalharia num âmbito experimental, analisando o valor simbólico da jóia. No terceiro capítulo interpreta-se o design entre tradição e inovação, nomeadamente a sua importância como veiculador cultural, o seu relacionamento com o artesanato e a relevância do laboratório como lugar de experimentação. O quarto capítulo analisa a acção do cruzamento entre os dois sectores – cerâmica e joalharia – na definição da cultura material, na Europa e em Portugal. Clarifica-se também o conceito de Sistema de Produto quando aplicado, como projecto piloto, à Joalharia, servindo-se de estudos de caso como mediadores experimentais. A segunda parte tem três capítulos. No primeiro capítulo analisam-se e averiguam-se tipologias de jóias existentes, assim como algumas provas laboratoriais que permitem o entendimento da tecnologia cerâmica no desenvolvimento de um projecto de Joalharia. Possibilita-se, deste modo, o surgimento dos primeiros estudos tipológico-formais determinantes para a definição da tipologia de projecto jóia-azulejo. No segundo capítulo define-se uma estratégia metodológica para aplicar a um produto de jóia cerâmica, analisando a particular importância do factor emocional na tomada de decisão do cliente. O terceiro capítulo defende um projecto experimental, como momento de verificação, aplicação e materialização do estudo desenvolvido nesta dissertação, proporcionando uma ocasião projectual para avaliar as potencialidades de um produto futuro, orientado pelo design, fruto do cruzamento entre a Cultura Cerâmica e a Joalharia em Portugal.

Environmental factors, clipping and fire: effects on cerrado (Brazilian savanna) native and invasive grasses

The Brazilian Cerrado houses a hugely diverse biota and is considered a conservation hotspot. One of the greatest threats to the integrity of this ecosystem is introduced African grasses, which can competitively exclude native grasses and cause changes in the microclimate and other disturbances. The Cerrado is a mosaic vegetation that provides different combinations, both spatially and temporally, of conditions that can become natural stressors to the herbaceous vegetation (water, nutrient and light availability). These mosaics are reflected in differences in relationships among native and invasive species, affecting competition and creating situations (place/season) that are more, or less, susceptible to invasion. The present study aimed to identify the different biological responses of native (Aristida recurvata, Aristida setifolia, Axonopus barbigerus, Echinolaena inflexa, Gymnopogon spicatus, Paspalum gardnerianum, Paspalum stellatum, Schizachyrium microstachyum, Schizachyrium sanguineum) and invasive (Melinis minutiflora and Andropogon gayanus) grasses to variations in natural stressors and to disturbance (fire and clipping), in order to understand changes in ecosystem functioning and competition processes between the grasses, and to understand invasion dynamics in this ecosystem. The presence of invasive species proved to affect the ecosystem functioning by increasing soil feeding activity. These differences were no longer observed in the dry season or when fires were frequent, showing that water availability and fire are more detrimental to soil feeding activity than is the vegetation. Laboratory experiments showed that both drought and flood simulated scenarios damaged both species, although the invasive species performed better under all watering conditions and responded better to fertilization. Underlying mechanisms such as the efficiency of photosynthesis and antioxidant mechanisms helped to explain this behavior. The invasive species grew faster and showed less cellular damage and a healthier photosystem, reflected in higher assimilation rates under stress. These differences between the native and invasive species were reduced with clipping, especially in dry soil with no fertilization, where the native species recovered better in relation to the pre-clipping levels. Flooding was as stressful as drought, but the invasive species can bypass this issue by growing an extensive root system, especially in the better-drained soils. Fire is more detrimental than clipping, with a slower recovery, while post-fire temperatures affect the germination of both invasive and native seeds and may be an important factor influencing the persistence of a diverse biota. This approach will finally contribute to the choice of the appropriate management techniques to preserve the Cerrado’s biodiversity.

Induction of anti-herbivore defences by direct amphipod consumption and water borne grazer cues in macroalgae

Dissertação mest., Estudos Marinhos e Costeiros, Universidade do Algarve, 2007

Dynamics of production and mortality of Aurelia SP. in thau lagoon, northwerstern Mediterranean

Dissertação de mestrado, Biologia Marinha, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2015