The subjectivist interpretation of probability and the problem of individualisation in forensic science

This paper presents and discusses further aspects of the subjectivist interpretation of probability (also known as the 'personalist' view of probabilities) as initiated in earlier forensic and legal literature. It shows that operational devices to elicit subjective probabilities - in particular the so-called scoring rules - provide additional arguments in support of the standpoint according to which categorical claims of forensic individualisation do not follow from a formal analysis under that view of probability theory.

Improving the organisation and commercialisation of small coffee and cocoa producers in the Northern Amazon Region of Ecuador

Coffee and cocoa represent the main sources of income for small farmers in the Northern Amazon Region of Ecuador. The provinces of Orellana and Sucumbios, as border areas, have benefited from investments made by many public and private institutions. Many of the projects carried out in the area have been aimed at energising the production of coffee and cocoa, strengthening the producers’ associations and providing commercialisation infrastructure. Improving the quality of life of this population threatened by poverty and high migration flows mainly from Colombia is a significant challenge. This paper presents research highlighting the importance of associative commercialisation to raising income from coffee and cocoa. The research draws on primary information obtained during field work, and from official information from the Ministry of Agriculture. The study presents an overview of current organisational structures, initiatives of associative commercialisation, stockpiling of infrastructure and ownership regimes, as well as estimates for both ‘robusta’ coffee and national cocoa production and income. The analysis of the main constraints presents different alternatives for the implementation of public land policies. These policies are aimed at mitigating the problems associated with the organisational structure of the producers, with processes of commercialisation and with environmental aspects, among others.

Process and results of the development of an ICNP® Catalogue for Cancer Pain

This was a methodological study conducted to describe the process and results of the development of an International Classification for Nursing Practice (ICNP®) Catalogue for Cancer Pain. According to the International Council of Nurses (ICN), this catalogue contains a subset of nursing diagnoses, outcomes, and interventions to document the implementation of the nursing process in cancer patients. This catalogue was developed in several steps according to the guidelines recommended by the ICN. As a result, 68 statements on nursing diagnoses/outcomes were obtained, which were classified according to the theoretical model for nursing care related to cancer pain into physical (28), psychological (29), and sociocultural and spiritual (11) aspects. A total of 116 corresponding nursing interventions were obtained. The proposed ICNP® Catalogue for Cancer Pain aims to provide safe and systematic orientation to nurses who work in this field, thus improving the quality of patient care and facilitating the performance of the nursing process.

The discourse of health managers on aspects related to the delay in tuberculosis diagnosis

The aim of this study was to analyze the discourse of health managers on aspects related to delay in tuberculosis diagnosis. This was a qualitative research study, conducted with 16 Family Health Unit managers. The empirical data were obtained through semi-structured interviews. The analysis was based on the theoretical framework of the French school of discourse analysis. According to the managers’ statements, the delay in tuberculosis diagnosis is related to patient and health service aspects. As for patient aspects, managers report fear, prejudice and lack of information as factors that may promote a delayed diagnosis. Regarding health service aspects, structural problems and lack of professional skills were reported. The discourse of managers should be considered to qualify tuberculosis control actions and to prevent delays in diagnosis.

Correlation between depressive symptoms and quality of life in users of psychoactive substances

Objectives: To evaluate the correlation between the presence of depressive symptoms and quality of life in users of psychoactive substances from Psychosocial Attention Centers in Mato Grosso. Method: A cross-sectional analytical study, conducted in Psychosocial Attention Centers, with 109 users. The instruments used were: Medical Outcomes Study 36, Beck Depression Inventory, socio-demographic variables and the use of psychoactive substances. A Tukey analysis and a Spearman correlation were conducted with a significance level of α<0,05. Results: The most affected domains of quality of life were emotional, social and mental health aspects, besides the strong correlation between depressive symptoms and quality of life. Conclusion: The use of psychoactive substances and the presence of symptoms significantly interfere in the life of users, which can compromise the motivation to the treatment, negatively affecting the quality of life in this population.



Predestination and the Protestant ethic

This paper shows an equivalence result between the utility functions of secularagents who abide by a moral obligation to accumulate wealth and those of religiousagents who believe that salvation is immutable and preordained by God. Thisresult formalizes Weber's renowned thesis on the connection between the worldlyasceticism of Protestants and the religious premises of Calvinism. Furthermore,ongoing economies are often modeled with preference relations such as "Keeping upwith the Joneses" which are not associated with religion. Our results relate thesesecular economies of today and economies of the past shaped by religious ideas.

Trade credit: Suppliers as debt collectors and insurance providers

There are two fundamental puzzles about trade credit: why does it appearto be so expensive,and why do input suppliers engage in the business oflending money? This paper addresses and answers both questions analysingthe interaction between the financial and the industrial aspects of thesupplier-customer relationship. It examines how, in a context of limitedenforceability of contracts, suppliers may have a comparative advantageover banks in lending to their customers because they hold the extrathreat of stopping the supply of intermediate goods. Suppliers may alsoact as lenders of last resort, providing insurance against liquidityshocks that may endanger the survival of their customers. The relativelyhigh implicit interest rates of trade credit result from the existenceof default and insurance premia. The implications of the model areexamined empirically using parametric and nonparametric techniques on apanel of UK firms.

The significant behavioral aspects of adopted children within successful adoption in Romania

The human behavior is giving the entire picture of a person. The behavior is based on a complex combination of personal innate factors, experience and education and the social network within which the individual is integrated. Each moment the complex individual factors face external and internal environmental aspects which in turn, generate proactive and retroactive reactions. The adoption process is an important and challenging social experiment, bringing to the adopted child a new affiliation, social network, experiences and educational standards. This comes in his/her life after the trauma of losing his biological affiliation and social and emotional support. Which are the significant characteristics of the adopted child's behavior? Which are the behavioral characteristics of the adoptive child that guarantee the success of the domestic adoptions in Romania? These are the questions we are going to answer here based on the research done within FISAN(6) project. The 32 children, 11-16 years old, adopted by Romanian families, during the early ages (0-4 years), were evaluated with complex evaluation tools for children and parents. The adoptive families participating in the research live in the Western counties of Romania.Successful adoption is defined as secure attachment of the adopted child. The conclusions emphasize the importance of: the pro-social behavior, the loving behavior showed to the parents, the assertive behavior, the differentiations between parents and people outside the family, and between the two parents, and the humor. These behaviors displayed by the adopted children are the ingredients of a successful integration within the adoptive family.

Enhanced radar precipitation estimates using a combined clutter and beam blockage correction technique

Weather radar observations are currently the most reliable method for remote sensing of precipitation. However, a number of factors affect the quality of radar observations and may limit seriously automated quantitative applications of radar precipitation estimates such as those required in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data assimilation or in hydrological models. In this paper, a technique to correct two different problems typically present in radar data is presented and evaluated. The aspects dealt with are non-precipitating echoes - caused either by permanent ground clutter or by anomalous propagation of the radar beam (anaprop echoes) - and also topographical beam blockage. The correction technique is based in the computation of realistic beam propagation trajectories based upon recent radiosonde observations instead of assuming standard radio propagation conditions. The correction consists of three different steps: 1) calculation of a Dynamic Elevation Map which provides the minimum clutter-free antenna elevation for each pixel within the radar coverage; 2) correction for residual anaprop, checking the vertical reflectivity gradients within the radar volume; and 3) topographical beam blockage estimation and correction using a geometric optics approach. The technique is evaluated with four case studies in the region of the Po Valley (N Italy) using a C-band Doppler radar and a network of raingauges providing hourly precipitation measurements. The case studies cover different seasons, different radio propagation conditions and also stratiform and convective precipitation type events. After applying the proposed correction, a comparison of the radar precipitation estimates with raingauges indicates a general reduction in both the root mean squared error and the fractional error variance indicating the efficiency and robustness of the procedure. Moreover, the technique presented is not computationally expensive so it seems well suited to be implemented in an operational environment.

Multi-level modeling of aspects associated with poor mental health in a sample of prehospital emergency professionals.

BACKGROUND: The goal of this paper is to investigate the respective influence of work characteristics, the effort-reward ratio, and overcommitment on the poor mental health of out-of-hospital care providers. METHODS: 333 out-of-hospital care providers answered a questionnaire that included queries on mental health (GHQ-12), demographics, health-related information and work characteristics, questions from the Effort-Reward Imbalance Questionnaire, and items about overcommitment. A two-level multiple regression was performed between mental health (the dependent variable) and the effort-reward ratio, the overcommitment score, weekly number of interventions, percentage of non-prehospital transport of patients out of total missions, gender, and age. Participants were first-level units, and ambulance services were second-level units. We also shadowed ambulance personnel for a total of 416 hr. RESULTS: With cutoff points of 2/3 and 3/4 positive answers on the GHQ-12, the percentages of potential cases with poor mental health were 20% and 15%, respectively. The effort-reward ratio was associated with poor mental health (P < 0.001), irrespective of age or gender. Overcommitment was associated with poor mental health; this association was stronger in women (β = 0.054) than in men (β = 0.020). The percentage of prehospital missions out of total missions was only associated with poor mental health at the individual level. CONCLUSIONS: Emergency medical services should pay attention to the way employees perceive their efforts and the rewarding aspects of their work: an imbalance of those aspects is associated with poor mental health. Low perceived esteem appeared particularly associated with poor mental health. This suggests that supervisors of emergency medical services should enhance the value of their employees' work. Employees with overcommitment should also receive appropriate consideration. Preventive measures should target individual perceptions of effort and reward in order to improve mental health in prehospital care providers.

A randomized trial of spiritual assessment of outpatients with schizophrenia: Patients' and clinicians' experience

Objective: Recovery-oriented care for patients with schizophrenia involves consideration of cultural issues, such as religion and spirituality. However, there is evidence that psychiatrists rarely address such topics. This study examined acceptance of a spiritual assessment by patients and clinicians, suggestions for treatment that arose from the assessment, and patient outcomes-in terms of treatment compliance and satisfaction with care (as measured by treatment alliance). Methods: Outpatients with psychosis were randomly assigned to two groups: an intervention group that received traditional treatment and a religious and spiritual assessment (N=40) and a control group that received only traditional treatment (N=38). Eight psychiatrists were trained to administer the assessment to their established and stable patients. After each administration, the psychiatrist attended a supervision session with a psychiatrist and a psychologist of religion. Baseline and three-month data were collected. Results: The spiritual assessment was well accepted by patients. During supervision, psychiatrists reported potential clinical uses for the assessment information for 67% of patients. No between-group differences in medication adherence and satisfaction with care were found at three months, although patients in the in- tervention group had significantly better appointment attendance dur- ing the follow-up period. Their interest in discussing religion and spirituality with their psychiatrists remained high. The process was not as well accepted by psychiatrists. Conclusions: Spiritual assessment can raise important clinical issues in the treatment of patients with chronic schizophrenia. Cultural factors, such as religion and spirituality, should be considered early in clinical training, because many clinicians are not at ease addressing such topics with patients.

Genesis, Characterization, and Classification of Mangrove Soils in the Subaé River Basin, Bahia, Brazil

ABSTRACT Preservation of mangroves, a very significant ecosystem from a social, economic, and environmental viewpoint, requires knowledge on soil composition, genesis, morphology, and classification. These aspects are of paramount importance to understand the dynamics of sustainability and preservation of this natural resource. In this study mangrove soils in the Subaé river basin were described and classified and inorganic waste concentrations evaluated. Seven pedons of mangrove soil were chosen, five under fluvial influence and two under marine influence and analyzed for morphology. Samples of horizons and layers were collected for physical and chemical analyses, including heavy metals (Pb, Cd, Mn, Zn, and Fe). The moist soils were suboxidic, with Eh values below 350 mV. The pH level of the pedons under fluvial influence ranged from moderately acid to alkaline, while the pH in pedons under marine influence was around 7.0 throughout the profile. The concentration of cations in the sorting complex for all pedons, independent of fluvial or marine influence, indicated the following order: Na+>Mg2+>Ca2+>K+. Mangrove soils from the Subaé river basin under fluvial and marine influence had different morphological, physical, and chemical characteristics. The highest Pb and Cd concentrations were found in the pedons under fluvial influence, perhaps due to their closeness to the mining company Plumbum, while the concentrations in pedon P7 were lowest, due to greater distance from the factory. For containing at least one metal above the reference levels established by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (United States Environmental Protection Agency), the pedons were classified as potentially toxic. The soils were classified as Gleissolos Tiomórficos Órticos (sálicos) sódico neofluvissólico in according to the Brazilian Soil Classification System, indicating potential toxicity and very poor drainage, except for pedon P7, which was classified in the same subgroup as the others, but different in that the metal concentrations met acceptable standards.

The function of a new regulator of epidermal differentiation, HOP, and pathomechanisms underlying epidermolytic hyperkeratosis

The process of epidermal differentiation involves proliferation, differentiation, migration and maturation of keratinocytes to form an impermeable barrier against water loss and outside environment. It is controlled by highly balanced regulatory machinery, involving many molecules that are still under investigation.Homeobox proteins are involved in body patterning and morphogenesis of organs and are studied as potentially good candidates to regulate this process. In the first project we investigated the role of a protein named HOP which belongs to a group of homeobox proteins. Even if HOP is a small protein almost completely composed of the homeodomain and without DNA binding capacity, it is considered as transcriptional regulator in different tissues. HOP interacts with serum response factor (SRF) and histone deacetylase type 2 (HDAC2). By microarray analysis we found that HOP expression increases in cultured human primary keratinocytes (NHK) which undergo calcium-induced differentiation. HOP protein was localized in granular layer of the epidermis of healthy individuals. Lack of HOP was demonstrated in psoriatic lesions, whereas a strong expression was demonstrated in the lesional skin of patients affected with lichen planus (LP). Since LP is characterized by hypergranulosis while psoriatic lesions by progressive lack of the granular layer, the obtained data indicated that HOP might have a potential function in granular layer of epidermis. To investigate HOP function, we inhibited its expression by using HOP specific StealthRNAi and we overexpressed HOP using lentiviral vectors in differentiating NHK. The conclusion of both experiments indicated that HOP positively regulates the expression of late differentiation markers, such as profilaggrin, loricrin and transglutaminase 1. The in vitro data were next confirmed in vivo using HOP knockout mouse model.The second part of my study involved analysis of mechanisms underlying the pathogenesis of epidermolytic hyperkeratosis (EHK). EHK is a genetic disorder characterized by erythema, skin blistering, keratinocyte hyperproliferation and hyperkeratosis. EHK is caused by mutations in keratin 1 or 10 (K1, K10) which are major structural proteins of differentiated keratinocytes and participate in the cellular scaffold formation. To investigate how the structural proteins carrying mutations alter cellular signaling, we established an in vitro model for EHK by overexpression of one of the most common K10 mutations reported so far (K10R156H), in primary human keratinocytes. In order to mimic the in vivo situation, mutated keratinocytes growing on silicone membranes were subjected to mechanical stretch. We observed strong collapse of KIF in K10R156H keratinocytes when subjected to stretch for 30 minutes. Our data demonstrated stronger activation of p38, a member of MAPK stress signaling pathways, in K10R156H when compared to control cells. We demonstrated also that K10R156H keratinocytes showed an induction of TNF-α and RANTES release in response to stretch.Taken together these studies characterize a novel regulator of epidermal differentiation - HOP and demonstrate new aspects implicated in the pathogenesis of EHK.

Mesurer la stigmatisation perçue chez les personnes souffrant de troubles psychiques : traduction française, validation et adaptation de la Stigma Scale [French translation, validation and adaptation of the Stigma Scale].

AIM: People suffering from mental illness are exposed to stigma. However, only few tools are available to assess stigmatization as perceived from the patient's perspective. The aim of this study is to adapt and validate a French version of the Stigma Scale (King et al., 2007 [8]). This self-report questionnaire has a three-factor structure: discrimination, disclosure and positive aspects of mental illness. Discrimination subscale refers to perceived negative reactions of others. Disclosure subscale refers mainly to managing disclosure to avoid discrimination and finally positive aspects subscale taps into how patients are becoming more accepting, more understanding toward their illness. METHOD: In the first step, internal consistency, convergent validity and test-retest reliability of the French adaptation of the 28-item scale were assessed in a sample of 183 patients. Results of confirmatory factor analyses (CFA) did not confirm the hypothesized structure. In the light of the failed attempts to validate the original version, an alternative 9-item short-form version of the Stigma Scale, maintaining the integrity of the original model, was developed based on results of exploratory factor analyses in the first sample and cross-validated in a new sample of 234 patients. RESULTS: Results of CFA did not confirm that the data fitted well to the three-factor model of the 28-item Stigma Scale (χ(2)/df=2.02, GFI=0.77, AGFI=0.73, RMSEA=0.07, CFI=0.77 and NNFI=0.75). Cronbach's α was excellent for discrimination (0.84) and disclosure (0.83) subscales but poor for potential positive aspects (0.46). External validity was satisfactory. Overall Stigma Scale total score was negatively correlated with the score on Rosenberg's Self-Esteem Scale (r=-0.49), and each subscale was significantly correlated with a visual analogue scale that referred to the specific aspect of stigma (0.43≤|r|≤0.60). Intraclass correlation coefficients between 0.68 and 0.89 indicated good test-retest reliability. The results of the CFA demonstrated that the items chosen for the short version of the Stigma Scale have the expected fit properties (χ(2)/df=1.02, GFI=0.98, AGFI=0.98, RMSEA=0.01, CFI=1.0 and NNFI=1.0). Considering the small number (three) of items in each subscale of the short version of the Stigma Scale, α coefficients for discrimination (0.57), disclosure (0.80) and potential positive aspects subscales (0.62) are considered as good. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the 9-item French short version of the Stigma Scale is a useful, reliable and valid self-report questionnaire to assess perceived stigmatization in people suffering from mental illness. The time of completion is really short and questions are well understood and accepted by the patients.