Important omitted spatial variables in safety models: Understanding contributing crash causes at intersections

Advances in safety research—trying to improve the collective understanding of motor vehicle crash causation—rests upon the pursuit of numerous lines of inquiry. The research community has focused on analytical methods development (negative binomial specifications, simultaneous equations, etc.), on better experimental designs (before-after studies, comparison sites, etc.), on improving exposure measures, and on model specification improvements (additive terms, non-linear relations, etc.). One might think of different lines of inquiry in terms of ‘low lying fruit’—areas of inquiry that might provide significant improvements in understanding crash causation. It is the contention of this research that omitted variable bias caused by the exclusion of important variables is an important line of inquiry in safety research. In particular, spatially related variables are often difficult to collect and omitted from crash models—but offer significant ability to better understand contributing factors to crashes. This study—believed to represent a unique contribution to the safety literature—develops and examines the role of a sizeable set of spatial variables in intersection crash occurrence. In addition to commonly considered traffic and geometric variables, examined spatial factors include local influences of weather, sun glare, proximity to drinking establishments, and proximity to schools. The results indicate that inclusion of these factors results in significant improvement in model explanatory power, and the results also generally agree with expectation. The research illuminates the importance of spatial variables in safety research and also the negative consequences of their omissions.

Incorporating weather into regionwide safety planning prediction models

Predicting safety on roadways is standard practice for road safety professionals and has a corresponding extensive literature. The majority of safety prediction models are estimated using roadway segment and intersection (microscale) data, while more recently efforts have been undertaken to predict safety at the planning level (macroscale). Safety prediction models typically include roadway, operations, and exposure variables—factors known to affect safety in fundamental ways. Environmental variables, in particular variables attempting to capture the effect of rain on road safety, are difficult to obtain and have rarely been considered. In the few cases weather variables have been included, historical averages rather than actual weather conditions during which crashes are observed have been used. Without the inclusion of weather related variables researchers have had difficulty explaining regional differences in the safety performance of various entities (e.g. intersections, road segments, highways, etc.) As part of the NCHRP 8-44 research effort, researchers developed PLANSAFE, or planning level safety prediction models. These models make use of socio-economic, demographic, and roadway variables for predicting planning level safety. Accounting for regional differences - similar to the experience for microscale safety models - has been problematic during the development of planning level safety prediction models. More specifically, without weather related variables there is an insufficient set of variables for explaining safety differences across regions and states. Furthermore, omitted variable bias resulting from excluding these important variables may adversely impact the coefficients of included variables, thus contributing to difficulty in model interpretation and accuracy. This paper summarizes the results of an effort to include weather related variables, particularly various measures of rainfall, into accident frequency prediction and the prediction of the frequency of fatal and/or injury degree of severity crash models. The purpose of the study was to determine whether these variables do in fact improve overall goodness of fit of the models, whether these variables may explain some or all of observed regional differences, and identifying the estimated effects of rainfall on safety. The models are based on Traffic Analysis Zone level datasets from Michigan, and Pima and Maricopa Counties in Arizona. Numerous rain-related variables were found to be statistically significant, selected rain related variables improved the overall goodness of fit, and inclusion of these variables reduced the portion of the model explained by the constant in the base models without weather variables. Rain tends to diminish safety, as expected, in fairly complex ways, depending on rain frequency and intensity.

Differences in the performance of safety performance functions estimated for total crash count and for crash count by crash type

In recent years the development and use of crash prediction models for roadway safety analyses have received substantial attention. These models, also known as safety performance functions (SPFs), relate the expected crash frequency of roadway elements (intersections, road segments, on-ramps) to traffic volumes and other geometric and operational characteristics. A commonly practiced approach for applying intersection SPFs is to assume that crash types occur in fixed proportions (e.g., rear-end crashes make up 20% of crashes, angle crashes 35%, and so forth) and then apply these fixed proportions to crash totals to estimate crash frequencies by type. As demonstrated in this paper, such a practice makes questionable assumptions and results in considerable error in estimating crash proportions. Through the use of rudimentary SPFs based solely on the annual average daily traffic (AADT) of major and minor roads, the homogeneity-in-proportions assumption is shown not to hold across AADT, because crash proportions vary as a function of both major and minor road AADT. For example, with minor road AADT of 400 vehicles per day, the proportion of intersecting-direction crashes decreases from about 50% with 2,000 major road AADT to about 15% with 82,000 AADT. Same-direction crashes increase from about 15% to 55% for the same comparison. The homogeneity-in-proportions assumption should be abandoned, and crash type models should be used to predict crash frequency by crash type. SPFs that use additional geometric variables would only exacerbate the problem quantified here. Comparison of models for different crash types using additional geometric variables remains the subject of future research.

Evaluation of the Scottsdale Loop 101 automated speed enforcement demonstration program

Speeding is recognized as a major contributing factor in traffic crashes. In order to reduce speed-related crashes, the city of Scottsdale, Arizona implemented the first fixed-camera photo speed enforcement program (SEP) on a limited access freeway in the US. The 9-month demonstration program spanning from January 2006 to October 2006 was implemented on a 6.5 mile urban freeway segment of Arizona State Route 101 running through Scottsdale. This paper presents the results of a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the SEP on speeding behavior, crashes, and the economic impact of crashes. The impact on speeding behavior was estimated using generalized least square estimation, in which the observed speeds and the speeding frequencies during the program period were compared to those during other periods. The impact of the SEP on crashes was estimated using 3 evaluation methods: a before-and-after (BA) analysis using a comparison group, a BA analysis with traffic flow correction, and an empirical Bayes BA analysis with time-variant safety. The analysis results reveal that speeding detection frequencies (speeds> or =76 mph) increased by a factor of 10.5 after the SEP was (temporarily) terminated. Average speeds in the enforcement zone were reduced by about 9 mph when the SEP was implemented, after accounting for the influence of traffic flow. All crash types were reduced except rear-end crashes, although the estimated magnitude of impact varies across estimation methods (and their corresponding assumptions). When considering Arizona-specific crash related injury costs, the SEP is estimated to yield about $17 million in annual safety benefits.

Motivating blue-collar employees : a case study of the Chinese workforce

The Katz and Kahn (1978) motivational framework is an open system management theory that underscores the importance of self-regulation while stressing the significance of using continuous feedback to adapt in a rapidly changing environment. This study aims to examine Katz and Kahn’s prepositions that the implementation of a system of rule compliance, external rewards, and internalized motivation can decrease employee turnover, increase quantitative and qualitative standards of performance, and enhance cooperation and creativeness. The results among 233 Chinese employees (96.6% response rate) indicated partial support for Katz and Kahn’s motivational framework. The implication for improving the Chinese workforce, in particular blue-collar occupations, is discussed.

Towards the biofortification of banana fruit for enhanced micronutrient content

In Uganda, vitamin A deficiency (VAD) and iron deficiency anaemia (IDA) are major public health problems with between 15-32% of children under 5 years of age showing VAD and 73% being anaemic. This is largely due to the fact that the staple food crop of the country, banana, is low in pro-vitamin A and iron, therefore leading to dietary deficiencies. Although worldwide progress has been made to control VAD and IDA through supplementation, food fortification and diet diversification, their long term sustainability and impact in developing countries such as Uganda is limited. The approach taken by researchers at Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Australia, in collaboration with the National Agricultural Research Organization (NARO), Uganda, to address this problem, is to generate consumer acceptable banana varieties with significantly increased levels of pro-vitamin A and iron in the fruit using genetic engineering techniques. Such an approach requires the use of suitable, well characterised genes and promoters for targeted transgene expression. Recently, a new banana phytoene synthase gene (APsy2a) involved in the synthesis of pro-vitamin A (pVA) carotenoids was isolated from a high â-carotene banana (F’ei cv Asupina). In addition, sequences of banana ferritin, an iron storage protein, have been isolated from Cavendish banana. The aim of the research described in this thesis was to evaluate the function of these genes to assess their suitability for the biofortification of banana fruit. In addition, a range of banana-derived promoters were characterised to determine their suitability for controlling the expression of transgenes in banana fruit. Due to the time constraints involved with generating transgenic banana fruit, rice was used as the model crop to investigate the functionality of the banana-derived APsy2a and ferritin genes. Using Agrobacterium-mediated transformation, rice callus was transformed with APsy2a +/- the bacterial-derived carotene desaturase gene (CrtI) each under the control of the constitutive maize poly-ubiquitin promoter (ZmUbi) or seed-specific rice glutelin1 (Gt1) promoter. The maize phytoene synthase (ZmPsy1) gene was included as a control. On selective media, with the exception of ZmUbi-CrtI-transgenic callus, all antibiotic resistant callus displayed a yellow-orange colour from which the presence of â-carotene was demonstrated using Raman spectroscopy. Although the regeneration of plants from yellow-orange callus was difficult, 16 transgenic plants were obtained and characterised from callus transformed with ZmUbi-APys2a alone. At least 50% of the T1 seeds developed a yellow-orange coloured callus which was found to contain levels of â-carotene ranging from 4.6-fold to 72-fold higher than that in non-transgenic rice callus. Using the seed-specific Gt1 promoter, 38 transgenic rice plants were generated from APsy2a-CrtI-transformed callus while 32 plants were regenerated from ZmPsy1-CrtI-transformed callus. However, when analysed for presence of transgene by PCR, all transgenic plants contained the APsy2a, ZmPsy1 or CrtI transgene, with none of the plants found to be co-transformed. Using Raman spectroscopy, no â-carotene was detected in-situ in representative T1 seeds. To investigate the potential of the banana-derived ferritin gene (BanFer1) to enhance iron content, rice callus was transformed with constitutively expressed BanFer1 using the soybean ferritin gene (SoyFer) as a control. A total of 12 and 11 callus lines independently transformed with BanFer1 and SoyFer, respectively, were multiplied and transgene expression was verified by RT-PCR. Pearl’s Prussian blue staining for in-situ detection of ferric iron showed a stronger blue colour in rice callus transformed with BanFer1 compared to SoyFer. Using flame atomic absorption spectrometry, the highest mean amount of iron quantified in callus transformed with BanFer1 was 30-fold while that obtained using the SoyFer was 14-fold higher than the controls. In addition, ~78% of BanFer1-transgenic callus lines and ~27% of SoyFer-transgenic callus lines had significantly higher iron content than the non-transformed controls. Since the genes used for enhancing micronutrient content need to be expressed in banana fruit, the activity of a range of banana-derived, potentially fruit-active promoters in banana was investigated. Using uidA (GUS) as a reporter gene, the function of the Expansin1 (MaExp1), Expansin1 containing the rice actin intron (MaExp1a), Expansin4 (MaExp4), Extensin (MaExt), ACS (MaACS), ACO (MaACO), Metallothionein (MaMT2a) and phytoene synthase (APsy2a) promoters were transiently analysed in intact banana fruit using two transformation methods, particle bombardment and Agrobacterium-mediated infiltration (agro-infiltration). Although a considerable amount of variation in promoter activity was observed both within and between experiments, similar trends were obtained using both transformation methods. The MaExp1 and MaExp1a directed high levels of GUS expression in banana fruit which were comparable to those observed from the ZmUbi and Banana bunchy top virus-derived BT4 promoters that were included as positive controls. Lower levels of promoter activity were obtained in both methods using the MaACO and MaExt promoters while the MaExp4, MaACS, and APsy2a promoters directed the lowest GUS activity in banana fruit. An attempt was subsequently made to use agro-infiltration to assess the expression of pVA biosynthesis genes in banana fruit by infiltrating fruit with constructs in which the ZmUbi promoter controlled the expression of APsy2a +/- CrtI, and with the maize phytoene synthase gene (ZmPsy1) included as a control. Unfortunately, the large amount of variation and inconsistency observed within and between experiments precluded any meaningful conclusions to be drawn. The final component of this research was to assess the level of promoter activity and specificity in non-target tissue. These analyses were done on leaves obtained from glasshouse-grown banana plants stably transformed with MaExp1, MaACO, APsy2a, BT4 and ZmUbi promoters driving the expression of the GUS gene in addition to leaves from a selection of the same transgenic plants which were growing in a field trial in North Queensland. The results from both histochemical and fluorometric GUS assays showed that the MaExp1 and MaACO promoters directed very low GUS activities in leaves of stably transformed banana plants compared to the constitutive ZmUbi and BT4 promoters. In summary, the results from this research provide evidence that the banana phytoene synthase gene (APsy2a) and the banana ferritin gene (BanFer1) are functional, since the constitutive over-expression of each of these transgenes led to increased levels of pVA carotenoids (for APsy2a) and iron content (for BanFer1) in transgenic rice callus. Further work is now required to determine the functionality of these genes in stably-transformed banana fruit. This research also demonstrated that the MaExp1 and MaACO promoters are fruit-active but have low activity in non-target tissue (leaves), characteristics that make them potentially useful for the biofortification of banana fruit. Ultimately, however, analysis of fruit from field-grown transgenic plants will be required to fully evaluate the suitability of pVA biosynthesis genes and the fruit-active promoters for fruit biofortification.

National climate change adaptation research plan : freshwater biodiversity

Climate change will alter the basic physical and chemical environment underpinning all life. Species will be affected differentially by these alterations, resulting in changes to the structure and composition of present-day freshwater ecological communities, with the potential to change the ways in which these ecosystems function and the services they provide.

Meaning or measurement? Researching the social contexts of health and settlement among newly-arrived refugee youth in Melbourne, Australia

What are the most appropriate methodological approaches for researching the psychosocial determinants of health and wellbeing among young people from refugee backgrounds over the resettlement period? What kinds of research models can involve young people in meaningful reflections on their lives and futures while simultaneously yielding valid data to inform services and policy? This paper reports on the methods developed for a longitudinal study of health and wellbeing among young people from refugee backgrounds in Melbourne, Australia. The study involves 100 newly-arrived young people 12 to 18 years of age, and employs a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods implemented as a series of activities carried out by participants in personalized settlement journals. This paper highlights the need to think outside the box of traditional qualitative and/or quantitative approaches for social research into refugee youth health and illustrates how integrated approaches can produce information that is meaningful to policy makers, service providers and to the young people themselves.

Integrated genomic characterization of endometrial carcinoma

We performed an integrated genomic, transcriptomic and proteomic characterization of 373 endometrial carcinomas using array- and sequencing-based technologies. Uterine serous tumours and ∼25% of high-grade endometrioid tumours had extensive copy number alterations, few DNA methylation changes, low oestrogen receptor/progesterone receptor levels, and frequent TP53 mutations. Most endometrioid tumours had few copy number alterations or TP53 mutations, but frequent mutations in PTEN, CTNNB1, PIK3CA, ARID1A and KRAS and novel mutations in the SWI/SNF chromatin remodelling complex gene ARID5B. A subset of endometrioid tumours that we identified had a markedly increased transversion mutation frequency and newly identified hotspot mutations in POLE. Our results classified endometrial cancers into four categories: POLE ultramutated, microsatellite instability hypermutated, copy-number low, and copy-number high. Uterine serous carcinomas share genomic features with ovarian serous and basal-like breast carcinomas. We demonstrated that the genomic features of endometrial carcinomas permit a reclassification that may affect post-surgical adjuvant treatment for women with aggressive tumours.

Aligned poly(L-lactic-co-ε-caprolactone) electrospun microfibers and knitted structure: a novel composite scaffold for ligament tissue engineering

We developed a novel technique involving knitting and electrospinning to fabricate a composite scaffold for ligament tissue engineering. Knitted structures were coated with poly(L-lactic-co-e-caprolactone) (PLCL) and then placed onto a rotating cylinder and a PLCL solution was electrospun onto the structure. Highly aligned 2-μm-diameter microfibers covered the space between the stitches and adhered to the knitted scaffolds. The stress–strain tensile curves exhibited an initial toe region similar to the tensile behavior of ligaments. Composite scaffolds had an elastic modulus (150 ± 14 MPa) similar to the modulus of human ligaments. Biological evaluation showed that cells proliferated on the composite scaffolds and they spontaneously orientated along the direction of microfiber alignment. The microfiber architecture also induced a high level of extracellular matrix secretion, which was characterized by immunostaining. We found that cells produced collagen type I and type III, two main components found in ligaments. After 14 days of culture, collagen type III started to form a fibrous network. We fabricated a composite scaffold having the mechanical properties of the knitted structure and the morphological properties of the aligned microfibers. It is difficult to seed a highly macroporous structure with cells, however the technique we developed enabled an easy cell seeding due to presence of the microfiber layer. Therefore, these scaffolds presented attractive properties for a future use in bioreactors for ligament tissue engineering.

A poly(lactic-co-glycolic acid) knitted scaffold for tendon tissue engineering: an in vitro and in vivo study

We have designed a composite scaffold for potential use in tendon or ligament tissue engineering. The composite scaffold was made of a cellularized alginate gel that encapsulated a knitted structure. Our hypothesis was that the alginate would act as a cell carrier and deliver cells to the injury site while the knitted structure would provide mechanical strength to the composite construct. The mechanical behaviour and the degradation profile of the poly(lactic-co-glycolic acid) knitted scaffolds were evaluated. We found that our scaffolds had an elastic modulus of 750 MPa and that they lost their physical integrity within 7 weeks of in vitro incubation. Autologous rabbit mesenchymal stem cell seeded composite scaffolds were implanted in a 1-cm-long defect created in the rabbit tendon, and the biomechanical properties and the morphology of the regenerated tissues were evaluated after 13 weeks. The regenerated tendons presented higher normalized elastic modulus of (60%) when compared with naturally healed tendons (40%). The histological study showed a higher cell density and vascularization in the regenerated tendons.

A novel bioreactor for ligament tissue engineering

Bioreactors are defined as devices in which biological and/or biochemical processes develop under closely monitored and tightly controlled environmental and operating conditions (e.g. pH, temperature, mechanical conditions, nutrient supply and waste removal). In functional tissue engineering of musculoskeletal tissues, a bioreactor capable of controlling dynamic loading plays a determinant role. It has been shown that mechanical stretching promotes the expression of type I and III collagens, fibronectin, tenascin-C in cultured ligament fibroblasts (J.C.-H. Goh et al., Tissue Eng. 9 (2003), S31) and that human bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells (hBMMSC) – even in the absence of biochemical regulators – could be induced to differentiate into ligament-like fibroblast by the application of physiologically relevant cyclic strains (G. Vunjak-Novakovic et al., Ann. Rev. Biomed. Eng. 6 (2004), 131; H.A. Awad et al., Tissue Eng. 5 (1999), 267; R.G. Young et al., J. Orthop. Res. 16 (1998), 406). Different bioreactors are commercially available but they are too generic to be used for a given tissue, each tissue showing specific mechanical loading properties. In the case of ligament tissue engineering, the design of a bioreactor is still an open question. Our group proposes a bioreactor allowing cyclic traction–torsion on a scaffold seeded with stem cells.

Psychological stress and employee engagement

“The challenge today is not just retaining talented people, but fully engaging them, capturing their minds and hearts at each stage of their work lives” (Kaye & Jordan-Evans, 2003, p. 11). Engaged employees produce positive work outcomes such as increased productivity satisfaction, and reduced turnover (Kahn, 1990, 1992; Saks, 2006). Engaged employees also impact on customers and co-workers’ positive experiences such as increased customer satisfaction (Wagner & Harter, 2006). Further, engaged employees demonstrate higher levels of trust in management and share more positive experiences with co-workers than disengage employees (Payne, Cangemi, Fuqua, & Muhleakamp, 1998). Past studies show that having a high proportion of engaged employees increases organizational performance, such as profitability and reputation (Wagner & Harter, 2006; Fleming & Asplund, 2007; Ketter, 2008). Having experienced the benefits of having engaged employees, organizations have become more aware of this issue and have been focusing on facilitating engagement climate within workplaces. Recently, an interest in positive psychology, instead of negative aspects of human behaviours, has become a focus for both scholars and practitioners. The trend towards positive psychology has led to the emergence of the concept of work engagement(Chughtai & Buckley, 2008). This article reviews literatures in the area of positive psychology and psychological stress, and discusses how organizations can increase work engagement among their organizational members. The remainder of this article is organised in four sections. First, we define work engagement as used in this article and psychological outcomes of work engagement. Second, we identify ways to increase work engagement among employees. Following this, we further discuss how gender roles influence individuals’ engagement at work. The final sections conclude the paper with a discussion of the practical implications.

Energy-based motion control of marine vehicles using interconnection and damping assignment passivity-based control : a survey

This paper reviews some recent results in motion control of marine vehicles using a technique called Interconnection and Damping Assignment Passivity-based Control (IDA-PBC). This approach to motion control exploits the fact that vehicle dynamics can be described in terms of energy storage, distribution, and dissipation, and that the stable equilibrium points of mechanical systems are those at which the potential energy attains a minima. The control forces are used to transform the closed-loop dynamics into a port-controlled Hamiltonian system with dissipation. This is achieved by shaping the energy-storing characteristics of the system, modifying its interconnection structure (how the energy is distributed), and injecting damping. The end result is that the closed-loop system presents a stable equilibrium (hopefully global) at the desired operating point. By forcing the closed-loop dynamics into a Hamiltonian form, the resulting total energy function of the system serves as a Lyapunov function that can be used to demonstrate stability. We consider the tracking and regulation of fully actuated unmanned underwater vehicles, its extension to under-actuated slender vehicles, and also manifold regulation of under-actuated surface vessels. The paper is concluded with an outlook on future research.

Methodology to predict the safety performance of rural multilane highways [Final Report for NCHRP Project 17-29]

The objective of this research is to develop a methodology that predicts the safety performance of various elements considered in the planning, design, and operation of nonlimited- access rural multilane highways.