The empirical analysis of cigarette tax avoidance and illicit trade in Vietnam, 1998-2010.

Illicit trade carries the potential to magnify existing tobacco-related health care costs through increased availability of untaxed and inexpensive cigarettes. What is known with respect to the magnitude of illicit trade for Vietnam is produced primarily by the industry, and methodologies are typically opaque. Independent assessment of the illicit cigarette trade in Vietnam is vital to tobacco control policy. This paper measures the magnitude of illicit cigarette trade for Vietnam between 1998 and 2010 using two methods, discrepancies between legitimate domestic cigarette sales and domestic tobacco consumption estimated from surveys, and trade discrepancies as recorded by Vietnam and trade partners. The results indicate that Vietnam likely experienced net smuggling in during the period studied. With the inclusion of adjustments for survey respondent under-reporting, inward illicit trade likely occurred in three of the four years for which surveys were available. Discrepancies in trade records indicate that the value of smuggled cigarettes into Vietnam ranges from $100 million to $300 million between 2000 and 2010 and that these cigarettes primarily originate in Singapore, Hong Kong, Macao, Malaysia, and Australia. Notable differences in trends over time exist between the two methods, but by comparison, the industry estimates consistently place the magnitude of illicit trade at the upper bounds of what this study shows. The unavailability of annual, survey-based estimates of consumption may obscure the true, annual trend over time. Second, as surveys changed over time, estimates relying on them may be inconsistent with one another. Finally, these two methods measure different components of illicit trade, specifically consumption of illicit cigarettes regardless of origin and smuggling of cigarettes into a particular market. However, absent a gold standard, comparisons of different approaches to illicit trade measurement serve efforts to refine and improve measurement approaches and estimates.

Empirical measurement of illicit tobacco trade in the Philippines.

Cigarette smuggling reduces the price of cigarettes, thwarts youth access restrictions, reduces government revenue, and undercuts the ability of taxes to reduce consumption. The tobacco industry often opposes increases to tobacco taxes on the claim that greater taxes induce more smuggling. To date, little is known about the magnitude of smuggling in the Philippines. his information is necessary to effectively address illicit trade and to measure the impacts of tax changes and the introduction of secure tax markings on illicit trade. This study employs two gap discrepancy methods to estimate the magnitude of illicit trade in cigarettes for the Philippines between 1994 and 2009. First, domestic consumption is compared with tax-paid sales to measure the consumption of illicit cigarettes. Second, imports recorded by the Philippines are compared with exports to the Philippines by trade partners to measure smuggling. Domestic consumption fell short of tax-paid sales for all survey years. The magnitude of these differences and a comparison with a prevalence survey for 2009 suggest a high level of survey under-reporting of smoking. In the late 1990s and the mid 2000s, the Philippines experienced two sharp declines in trade discrepancies, from a high of $750 million in 1995 to a low of $133.7 million in 2008. Discrepancies composed more than one-third of the domestic market in 1995, but only 10 percent in 2009. Hong Kong, Singapore, and China together account for more than 80 percent of the cumulative discrepancies over the period and 74 percent of the discrepancy in 2009. The presence of large discrepancies supports the need to implement an effective tax marking and tobacco track and trace system to reduce illicit trade and support tax collection. The absence of a relation between tax changes and smuggling suggests that potential increases in the excise tax should not be discouraged by illicit trade. Finally, the identification of specific trade partners as primary sources for illicit trade may facilitate targeted efforts in cooperation with these governments to reduce illicit trade.

The 2001 World Trade Centre evacuation

The WTC evacuation of 11 September 2001 provides an unrepeatable opportunity to probe into and understand the very nature of evacuation dynamics and with this improved understanding, contribute to the design of safer, more evacuation efficient, yet highly functional, high rise buildings. Following 9/11 the Fire Safety Engineering Group (FSEG) of the University of Greenwich embarked on a study of survivor experiences from the WTC Twin Towers evacuation. The experiences were collected from published accounts appearing in the print and electronic mass media and are stored in a relational data base specifically developed for this purpose. Using these accounts and other available sources of information FSEG also undertook a series of numerical simulations of the WTC North Tower. This paper represents an overview of the results from both studies.

Approximating the evacuation of the World Trade Center North Tower using computer simulation

This article concerns an investigation of the full scale evacuation of a building with a configuration similar to that of the World Trade Center (WTC) North Tower using computer simulation. A range of evacuation scenarios is explored in order to better understand the evacuation of the WTC on 11 September 2001. The analysis makes use of response time data derived from a study of published WTC survivor accounts. Geometric details of the building are obtained from architects' plans while the total building population used in the scenarios is based on estimates produced by the National Institute of Standards and Technology formal investigation into the evacuation. This paper attempts to approximate the events of 11 September 2001 and pursue several `what if' questions concerning the evacuation. In particular, the study explores the likely outcome had a single staircase survived intact from top to bottom. More generally, this paper explores issues associated with the practical limits of building size that can be expected to be efficiently evacuated using stairs alone.

Trade unions, civil society organisations and health reforms

This article provides an analysis of resistance to neoliberalism and commodification in the public healthcare sector as seen from a trade union perspective. It uses recent research on social-movement unionism and new labour internationalism to structure a series of case studies examining resistance to different dimensions of healthcare commodification in four countries. The range of alliances trade unions are making do not fit tidily into one model, but give insights into the movement elements of trade unionism. This dimension must be strengthened, but can also be in tension with collective bargaining and other institutional processes. How to constantly reconcile these different positions is the future challenge facing trade unions.

Trade credit linkages along the supply chain: evidence for the Italian textile sector

We examine the trade credit linkages among firms within a supply chain to reckon the effect of such linkages on the propagation of liquidity shocks from downstream to upstream firms. We choose a sample appropriate for this task, consisting of a large data set of Italian firms from the textile industry, a well known example of a comprehensive manufacturing cluster featuring a large number of small and specialized firms at each level of the supply chain. The results of the analysis indicate that the level of trade credit that firms provide to their suppliers is positively related to the level of trade credit granted to their clients: when the level of trade credit granted to clients divided by sales goes up by 1, the level of trade credit provided to suppliers divided by cost-of goods-sold goes up by an amount that varies between 0,22 and 0,52. Since all firms along the chain are linked by trade credit relationships, an increase in the level of trade credit granted by wholesalers generates a liquidity cascade throughout the chain. We designate the overall increase in the level of trade credit among all firms in the chain as a result of a unitary impulse in the level of trade credit granted by wholesalers as the multiplier effect of trade credit for the industry chain. We estimate such multiplier to vary between 1.28 and 2.04. We also investigate the effect of final demand on the level of trade credit sourced by firms at various levels of the chain and, in particular, whether such effect is amplified for firms further up in the chain as a result of liquidity propagation via trade credit linkages. We uncover evidence of such amplification when the links of liquidity transmission along the chain are individually modeled and estimated. An unitary increase in wholesalers’ sales is found to produce an effect on trade payables among firms at the top of the chain (i.e., Preparers and Spinners) that is more than twice as big as the corresponding effect among firms at the bottom of the chain (i.e., Wholesalers).

Developing global trade union "space"

International unions and international solidarity strategies have been changing partly as a response to changes in the global economy. Global union federations have played an important role in expanding communication and developing alliances with other social movements. One of the issues facing trade unions wanting to be effective at an international level is to what extent national concerns can inform and even be transcended by international perspectives. Proposals for studying the global labor force "horizontally", that is, according to different categories and forms of work rather than on a nation-by-nation basis, demonstrates a recognition of global- national dimensions (Harrod and O'Brien 2002:49). This paper will discuss the development of a global trade union "space", which enables national and global unions to work together effectively, using a series of case studies drawn from the experience of global and European public service unions.

Pathogenic challenge reveals immune trade-off in mussels exposed to reduced seawater pH and increased temperature

Mussels tolerant to seawater pH's that are projected to occur by 2300 due to ocean acidification.•Exposure to pH 6.50 reduced mussel immune response, yet in the absence of a pathogen.•Subsequent pathogenic challenge led to a reversal of immune suppression at pH 6.50.•Study highlights the importance of undertaking multiple stressor exposures.•Shows a need to consider physiological trade-offs and measure responses functionally

Phenotypic variation in shell form in the intertidal acorn barnacle Chthamalus montagui: distribution, response to predators and life history trade-offs.

The acorn barnacle Chthamalus montagui can present strong variation in shell morphology, ranging from flat conic to a highly bent form, caused by a substantial overgrowth of the rostrum plate. Shell shape distribution was investigated between January and May 2004 from geographical to microhabitat spatial scales along the western coast of Britain. Populations studied in the north (Scotland and Isle of Man) showed a higher degree of shell variation compared to those in the south (Wales and south-west England). In the north, C. montagui living at lower tidal levels and in proximity to the predatory dogwhelk, Nucella lapillus, were more bent in profile. Laboratory experiments were conducted to examine behavioural responses, and vulnerability of bent and conic barnacles to predation by N. lapillus. Dogwhelks did not attack one morphotype more than the other, but only 15 % of attacks on bent forms were successful compared to 75 % in conic forms. Dogwhelk effluent reduced the time spent feeding by C. montagui (11 %), but there was no significant difference between conic and bent forms. Examination of barnacle morphology indicated a trade-off in investment in shell structure and feeding appendages associated with being bent, but none with egg or somatic tissue mass. These results are consistent with C. montagui showing an induced defence comparable to that found in its congeners Chthamalus anisopoma and Chthamalus fissus on the Pacific coast of North America, but further work to demonstrate inducibility is required.

Chapter 11: Human activities and ecosystem service use: impacts and trade-offs

Ecosystem services provided by the marine environment are fundamental to human health and well-being. Despite this, many marine systems are being degraded to an extent that may reduce their capacity to provide these ecosystem services. The ecosystem approach is a strategy for the integrated management of land, water and living resources that promotes conservation and sustainable use in an equitable way (UN Convention on Biological Diversity, 2000). Its application to marine management and spatial planning has been proposed as a means of maintaining the economic and social value of the oceans, not only in the present but for generations to come. Characterising the susceptibility of services (and combinations of services) to particular human activities based on knowledge of impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (as described in preceding chapters) is a challenge for future management of the oceans. In this chapter, we highlight the existing, but limited knowledge of how ecosystem services may be impacted by different human activities. We discuss how impacts on one service can impact multiple services and explore how the impacts on services can vary both spatially and temporally and according to context. We focus particularly on the effects on ecosystem services of activities whose impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning have already been considered in previous chapters. Some of these activities are associated with poor management of ecosystem benefits, for example, from provisioning services (aquaculture and fisheries), or with excessive input of wastes, fertilisers and contaminants into the system overburdening the waste treatment and assimilation services. Other impacts are associated with the construction of structures or use of space designed to generate benefits from environmental services such as the presence of water as a carrier for shipping, or sources of wind, wave and tidal power. We discuss the trade-offs that are made, consciously or otherwise, between different ecosystem services, which arise from human activities to optimise or manage specific ecosystem services.