Causality detection on US mutual fund movements using evolutionary subset time-series

In this paper we develop an evolutionary kernel-based time update algorithm to recursively estimate subset discrete lag models (including fullorder models) with a forgetting factor and a constant term, using the exactwindowed case. The algorithm applies to causality detection when the true relationship occurs with a continuous or a random delay. We then demonstrate the use of the proposed evolutionary algorithm to study the monthly mutual fund data, which come from the 'CRSP Survivor-bias free US Mutual Fund Database'. The results show that the NAV is an influential player on the international stage of global bond and stock markets.

On labour market dualism in the Lewis model: A comment

In a special issue of this journal commemorating the 50th anniversary of W. Arthur Lewis's (The Manchester School, Vol. 28 (1954), No. 2, pp. 139-191) seminal paper, the Lewis model is treated as a model of labour market dualism (Fields, The Manchester School, Vol. 72 (2004), No. 6, pp. 724-735). This interpretation is flawed for a number of reasons. First, it overemphasizes the role ascribed by Lewis to intersectoral earnings differentials in his original model. Second, it fails to acknowledge that a major shortcoming of the model was its inability to account for the widening intersectoral earnings differential observed across a wide range of developing economies. For Lewis himself this was one of the 'major theoretical puzzles of the period' (1979, p. 150). Third, it ignores Lewis's subsequent revision of the model (Lewis, The Manchester School, Vol. 47 (1979), No. 3, pp. 211-229) that, ironically, incorporates a dual labour market to resolve this puzzle. However, for Lewis the critical issue was dualism within the modern sector, not, as Fields understands it, labour market dualism between the modern and traditional sectors. Fields's appreciation of the contribution of the Lewis model to understanding the process of wage determination in developing economies is therefore misplaced.

Estimating direct and indirect effects of foreign direct investment on firm productivity in the presence of interactions between firms

We implement a method to estimate the direct effects of foreign-ownership on foreign firms' productivity and the indirect effects (or spillovers) from the presence of foreign-owned firms on other foreign and domestic firms' productivity in a unifying framework, taking interactions between firms into account. To do so, we relax a fundamental assumption made in empirical studies examining a direct causal effect of foreign ownership on firm productivity, namely that of no interactions between firms. Based on our approach, we are able to combine direct and indirect effects of foreign ownership and calculate the total effect of foreign firms on local productivity. Our results show that all these effects vary with the level of foreign presence within a cluster, an important finding for the academic literature and policy debate on the benefits of attracting foreign owned firms.

Study on Methodologies for Gas Transmission Network Tariffs and Gas Balancing Fees in Europe

A REKK a KEMA International B.V. partnereként a DGTREN által kiírt tender keretében az európai földgáz átviteli hálózati díjszabásokat és a kiegyenlítő gázforgalom lebonyolításának és elszámolásának nemzeti rendszereit hasonlította össze. Az uniós tagállamok körében folytatott kutatás azt is vizsgálta, hogy a nemzeti hálózati és kiegyenlítő rendszerek különbözősége milyen mértékben akadályozza a közös földgázpiac kialakulását.

Co-ordination and public administration in a global economy — A Hungarian point of view

The purpose of social co-ordination mechanisms is to co-ordinate the activities of individuals and organisations specialised in the distribution of work. The paper reviews five basic types of mechanisms: market, bureaucratic, ethical, aggressive and co-operative co-ordination. Today’s world operates on the basis of a duality: international cooperation is based on nation states, in which the public administrations work according to bureaucratic coordination. However, the increasingly globalised market responds to the logic of market coordination. The article argues that in terms of understanding the working of public administration, the various coordination mechanisms are of crucial importance, especially where various mechanisms meet, such as the relationship between nation states and multinational corporations.

Elemzés vagy megérzés: a stratégiai döntéshozatal gyakorlata Californiában és Magyarországon = Analysis or Intuition: Strategic decision making in California and Hungary

Stratégiai döntéseket jellemzően a vállalatok felsővezetői, vezérigazgatók és elnökök hoznak. Ennek szellemében 40 felsővezetőt kérdeztünk két nagyon különböző régióban (Kaliforniában és Magyarországon) egy összehasonlító kutatás keretében. A két országban tizenkét válaszadó vezérigazgató, elnök, alelnök, vagy felelős vezető volt (rájuk, mint Vezetőkre hivatkoztunk), miközben nyolcan alapítói és többségi tulajdonosai voltak saját vállalkozásuknak (őket nevezzük Vállalkozóknak). A kutatás három területre irányult: 1) Hogyan hoznak döntéseket a felsővezetők a valóságban a világ e két különböző táján; 2) Mennyiben különböznek - ha egyáltalán különböznek - a Vállalkozók és a Vezetők az alkalmazott döntéshozatali közelítésmódot tekintve, amikor az analitikus gondolkodást az intuícióikkal kombinálják; 3) Mik a hasonlóságok és a különbségek a menedzsment képességekben és a döntéshozatali rutinokban a Vállalkozók és a Vezetők között a vizsgált menedzsment kultúrákban. = Strategic decision making is usually conducted by a firm’s top management, led by the CEO or the President of the company. In keeping with this, 40 top level managers in two very different regions (California, USA and Hungary) were targeted in a comparative research study. In the two countries, twelve of the managers were CEOs, Presidents, Vice Presidents or Chief Officers (hereafter referred to as Executives) while eight were founders and majority owners of their own enterprises (hereafter referred to as Entrepreneurs). The research focused on the following 3 areas: 1) How top level managers really make strategic decisions in these two different parts of the world; 2) How Entrepreneurs and Executives differ, if at all, in their approach to strategic decision making when they combine analytical thinking with their intuition; 3) The similarities and differences in management skills and decision making routines between Entrepreneurs and Executives within the investigated management cultures.