The post-communist fertility puzzle

Fertility has unanimously declined across the entire post-communist region. This study explores the variation in fertility trends over time among these countries and assesses to what degree three explanations are applicable: second demographic transition (SDT), postponement transition (PPT) or reaction to the economic crisis. Moreover, on the basis of SDT and PPT theoretical tenets, as well as descriptive evidence, the economic context is hypothesized to be linked to two processes of fertility decline conversely. The results show that no one theoretical explanation is sufficient to explain the complex fertility declines across the entire post-communist region from 1990 to 2003. In some countries, a great part of the decline in fertility occurred before significant postponement of childbearing began, which indicates that the dramatic decline was due to stopping behavior or postponement of higher order births. Postponement of first births, either through PPT or SDT processes, greatly contributed to fertility decline in a small number of countries. Pooled cross-sectional time-series analyses of age-specific birthrates confirm that these two distinct processes are present and show that the economic crisis explanation has explanatory power for declining birth rates. In contrast, logistic regressions show that the likelihood of postponing childbirth increases with improved economic conditions. These results confirm the importance of taking the economic context into account when discussing explanations for fertility decline. More specifically, the results indicate that the severity and duration of economic crisis, or absence thereof, influenced the extent and manner in which fertility declined.

Regional child care availability and fertility decisions in Spain

In this paper I explore two hypotheses: (1) Formal child care availability for children under three has a positive effect across contexts, according to the degree of adaptation of social institutions to changes in gender roles. Event history models with regional fixed effects are applied to data from the European Community Household Panel (1994-2001). The results show a significant and positive effect of regional day care availability on both, first and higher order births, while results are consistent with the second hypothesis only for second or higher order births.

Towards robust network based complex systems : from evolutionary cellular automata to biological models

Abstract Sitting between your past and your future doesn't mean you are in the present. Dakota Skye Complex systems science is an interdisciplinary field grouping under the same umbrella dynamical phenomena from social, natural or mathematical sciences. The emergence of a higher order organization or behavior, transcending that expected of the linear addition of the parts, is a key factor shared by all these systems. Most complex systems can be modeled as networks that represent the interactions amongst the system's components. In addition to the actual nature of the part's interactions, the intrinsic topological structure of underlying network is believed to play a crucial role in the remarkable emergent behaviors exhibited by the systems. Moreover, the topology is also a key a factor to explain the extraordinary flexibility and resilience to perturbations when applied to transmission and diffusion phenomena. In this work, we study the effect of different network structures on the performance and on the fault tolerance of systems in two different contexts. In the first part, we study cellular automata, which are a simple paradigm for distributed computation. Cellular automata are made of basic Boolean computational units, the cells; relying on simple rules and information from- the surrounding cells to perform a global task. The limited visibility of the cells can be modeled as a network, where interactions amongst cells are governed by an underlying structure, usually a regular one. In order to increase the performance of cellular automata, we chose to change its topology. We applied computational principles inspired by Darwinian evolution, called evolutionary algorithms, to alter the system's topological structure starting from either a regular or a random one. The outcome is remarkable, as the resulting topologies find themselves sharing properties of both regular and random network, and display similitudes Watts-Strogtz's small-world network found in social systems. Moreover, the performance and tolerance to probabilistic faults of our small-world like cellular automata surpasses that of regular ones. In the second part, we use the context of biological genetic regulatory networks and, in particular, Kauffman's random Boolean networks model. In some ways, this model is close to cellular automata, although is not expected to perform any task. Instead, it simulates the time-evolution of genetic regulation within living organisms under strict conditions. The original model, though very attractive by it's simplicity, suffered from important shortcomings unveiled by the recent advances in genetics and biology. We propose to use these new discoveries to improve the original model. Firstly, we have used artificial topologies believed to be closer to that of gene regulatory networks. We have also studied actual biological organisms, and used parts of their genetic regulatory networks in our models. Secondly, we have addressed the improbable full synchronicity of the event taking place on. Boolean networks and proposed a more biologically plausible cascading scheme. Finally, we tackled the actual Boolean functions of the model, i.e. the specifics of how genes activate according to the activity of upstream genes, and presented a new update function that takes into account the actual promoting and repressing effects of one gene on another. Our improved models demonstrate the expected, biologically sound, behavior of previous GRN model, yet with superior resistance to perturbations. We believe they are one step closer to the biological reality.

Distribution of neuronal and metabolic markers in the human auditory cortex

SUMMARY The human auditory cortex, located on the supratemporal plane of the temporal lobe, is divided in a primary auditory area and several non-primary areas surrounding it. These different areas show anatomical and functional differences. Many studies have focussed on auditory areas in non-human primates, using investigation techniques such as electrophysiological recordings, tracing of neural connections, or immunohistochemical and histochemical staining. Some of these studies have suggested parallel and hierarchical organization of the cortical auditory areas as well as subcortical auditory relays. In humans, only few studies have investigated these regions immunohistochemically, but activation and lesion studies speak in favour of parallel and hierarchical organization, very similar to that of non-human primates. Calcium-binding proteins and metabolic markers were used to investigate possible correlates of hierarchical and parallel organization in man. Calcium-binding proteins, parvalbumin, calretinin and calbindin, modulate the concentration of intracellular free calcium ions and were found in distinct subpopulations of GABAergic neurons in non-human primates species. In our study, their distribution showed several differences between auditory areas: the primary auditory area was darkly stained for both parvalbumin and calbindin, and their expression rapidly decreased while moving away from the primary area. This staining pattern suggests a hierarchical organization of the areas, in which the more darkly stained areas could correspond to an earlier integration level and the areas showing light staining may correspond to higher level integration areas. Parallel organization of primary and non-primary auditory areas was suggested by the complementarity, within a given area, between parvalbumin and calbindin expression across layers. To investigate the possible differences in the energetic metabolism of the cortical auditory areas, several metabolic markers were used: cytochrome oxidase and LDH1 were used as oxidative metabolism markers and LDH5 was used as glycolytic metabolism marker. The results obtained show a difference in the expression of enzymes involved in oxidative metabolism between areas. In the primary auditory area the oxidative metabolism markers were maximally expressed in layer IV. In contrast, higher order areas showed maximal staining in supragranular layers. The expression of LDH5 varied in patches, but did not differ between the different hierarchical auditory areas. The distribution of the two LDH enzymes isoforms also provides information about cellular aspects of metabolic organization, since neurons expressed the LDH1 isoform whereas astrocytes express primarily LDH5, but some astrocytes also contained the LDH1 isoform. This cellular distribution pattern supports the hypothesis of the existence of an astrocyte-neuron lactate shuttle, previously suggested in rodent studies, and in particular of lactate transfer from astrocytes, which produce lactate from the glucose obtained from the circulation, to neurons that use lactate as energy substrate. In conclusion, the hypothesis of parallel and hierarchical organization of the auditory areas can be supported by CaBPs, cytochrome oxidase and LDH1 distribution. Moreover, the two LDHs cellular distribution pattern support the hypothesis of an astrocyte-neuron lactate shuttle in human cortex.

Neocortical maturation during adolescence: change in neuronal soma dimension.

During adolescence, cognitive abilities increase robustly. To search for possible related structural alterations of the cerebral cortex, we measured neuronal soma dimension (NSD = width times height), cortical thickness and neuronal densities in different types of neocortex in post-mortem brains of five 12-16 and five 17-24 year-olds (each 2F, 3M). Using a generalized mixed model analysis, mean normalized NSD comparing the age groups shows layer-specific change for layer 2 (p < .0001) and age-related differences between categorized type of cortex: primary/primary association cortex (BA 1, 3, 4, and 44) shows a generalized increase; higher-order regions (BA 9, 21, 39, and 45) also show increase in layers 2 and 5 but decrease in layers 3, 4, and 6 while limbic/orbital cortex (BA 23, 24, and 47) undergoes minor decrease (BA 1, 3, 4, and 44 vs. BA 9, 21, 39, and 45: p = .036 and BA 1, 3, 4, and 44 vs. BA 23, 24, and 47: p = .004). These data imply the operation of cortical layer- and type-specific processes of growth and regression adding new evidence that the human brain matures during adolescence not only functionally but also structurally.

The network origins of aggregate fluctuations

This paper argues that in the presence of intersectoral input-output linkages, microeconomicidiosyncratic shocks may lead to aggregate fluctuations. In particular, itshows that, as the economy becomes more disaggregated, the rate at which aggregatevolatility decays is determined by the structure of the network capturing such linkages.Our main results provide a characterization of this relationship in terms of the importanceof different sectors as suppliers to their immediate customers as well as theirrole as indirect suppliers to chains of downstream sectors. Such higher-order interconnectionscapture the possibility of "cascade effects" whereby productivity shocks to asector propagate not only to its immediate downstream customers, but also indirectlyto the rest of the economy. Our results highlight that sizable aggregate volatility isobtained from sectoral idiosyncratic shocks only if there exists significant asymmetryin the roles that sectors play as suppliers to others, and that the "sparseness" of theinput-output matrix is unrelated to the nature of aggregate fluctuations.

Further insights on the French WISC-IV factor structure through Bayesian structural equation modeling

The interpretation of the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Fourth Edition (WISC-IV) is based on a 4-factor model, which is only partially compatible with the mainstream Cattell-Horn-Carroll (CHC) model of intelligence measurement. The structure of cognitive batteries is frequently analyzed via exploratory factor analysis and/or confirmatory factor analysis. With classical confirmatory factor analysis, almost all crossloadings between latent variables and measures are fixed to zero in order to allow the model to be identified. However, inappropriate zero cross-loadings can contribute to poor model fit, distorted factors, and biased factor correlations; most important, they do not necessarily faithfully reflect theory. To deal with these methodological and theoretical limitations, we used a new statistical approach, Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM), among a sample of 249 French-speaking Swiss children (8-12 years). With BSEM, zero-fixed cross-loadings between latent variables and measures are replaced by approximate zeros, based on informative, small-variance priors. Results indicated that a direct hierarchical CHC-based model with 5 factors plus a general intelligence factor better represented the structure of the WISC-IV than did the 4-factor structure and the higher order models. Because a direct hierarchical CHC model was more adequate, it was concluded that the general factor should be considered as a breadth rather than a superordinate factor. Because it was possible for us to estimate the influence of each of the latent variables on the 15 subtest scores, BSEM allowed improvement of the understanding of the structure of intelligence tests and the clinical interpretation of the subtest scores.

Solving heterogeneous-agent models by projection and perturbation

The paper proposes a numerical solution method for general equilibrium models with a continuum of heterogeneous agents, which combines elements of projection and of perturbation methods. The basic idea is to solve first for the stationary solutionof the model, without aggregate shocks but with fully specified idiosyncratic shocks. Afterwards one computes a first-order perturbation of the solution in the aggregate shocks. This approach allows to include a high-dimensional representation of the cross-sectional distribution in the state vector. The method is applied to a model of household saving with uninsurable income risk and liquidity constraints. The model includes not only productivity shocks, but also shocks to redistributive taxation, which cause substantial short-run variation in the cross-sectional distribution of wealth. If those shocks are operative, it is shown that a solution method based on very few statistics of the distribution is not suitable, while the proposed method can solve the model with high accuracy, at least for the case of small aggregate shocks. Techniques are discussed to reduce the dimension of the state space such that higher order perturbations are feasible.Matlab programs to solve the model can be downloaded.

Tax reforms and inequality: theoretical and empirical implications

In this paper we examine the effect of tax policy on the relationship between inequality and growth in a two-sector non-scale model. With non-scale models, the longrun equilibrium growth rate is determined by technological parameters and it is independent of macroeconomic policy instruments. However, this fact does not imply that fiscal policy is unimportant for long-run economic performance. It indeed has important effects on the different levels of key economic variables such as per capita stock of capital and output. Hence, although the economy grows at the same rate across steady states, the bases for economic growth may be different.The model has three essential features. First, we explicitly model skill accumulation, second, we introduce government finance into the production function, and we introduce an income tax to mirror the fiscal events of the 1980¿s and 1990¿s in the US. The fact that the non-scale model is associated with higher order dynamics enables it to replicate the distinctly non-linear nature of inequality in the US with relative ease. The results derived in this paper attract attention to the fact that the non-scale growth model does not only fit the US data well for the long-run (Jones, 1995b) but also that it possesses unique abilities in explaining short term fluctuations of the economy. It is shown that during transition the response of the relative simulated wage to changes in the tax code is rather non-monotonic, quite in accordance to the US inequality pattern in the 1980¿s and early 1990¿s.More specifically, we have analyzed in detail the dynamics following the simulation of an isolated tax decrease and an isolated tax increase. So, after a tax decrease the skill premium follows a lower trajectory than the one it would follow without a tax decrease. Hence we are able to reduce inequality for several periods after the fiscal shock. On the contrary, following a tax increase, the evolution of the skill premium remains above the trajectory carried on by the skill premium under a situation with no tax increase. Consequently, a tax increase would imply a higher level of inequality in the economy

TACI, unlike BAFF-R, is solely activated by oligomeric BAFF and APRIL to support survival of activated B cells and plasmablasts.

The cytokine BAFF binds to the receptors TACI, BCMA, and BAFF-R on B cells, whereas APRIL binds to TACI and BCMA only. The signaling properties of soluble trimeric BAFF (BAFF 3-mer) were compared with those of higher-order BAFF oligomers. All forms of BAFF bound BAFF-R and TACI, and elicited BAFF-R-dependent signals in primary B cells. In contrast, signaling through TACI in mature B cells or plasmablasts was only achieved by higher-order BAFF and APRIL oligomers, all of which were also po-tent activators of a multimerization-dependent reporter signaling pathway. These results indicate that, although BAFF-R and TACI can provide B cells with similar signals, only BAFF-R, but not TACI, can respond to soluble BAFF 3-mer, which is the main form of BAFF found in circulation. BAFF 60-mer, an efficient TACI agonist, was also detected in plasma of BAFF transgenic and nontransgenic mice and was more than 100-fold more active than BAFF 3-mer for the activation of multimerization-dependent signals. TACI supported survival of activated B cells and plasmablasts in vitro, providing a rational basis to explain the immunoglobulin deficiency reported in TACI-deficient persons.

Tax reforms and inequality: theoretical and empirical implications

In this paper we examine the effect of tax policy on the relationship between inequality and growth in a two-sector non-scale model. With non-scale models, the longrun equilibrium growth rate is determined by technological parameters and it is independent of macroeconomic policy instruments. However, this fact does not imply that fiscal policy is unimportant for long-run economic performance. It indeed has important effects on the different levels of key economic variables such as per capita stock of capital and output. Hence, although the economy grows at the same rate across steady states, the bases for economic growth may be different.The model has three essential features. First, we explicitly model skill accumulation, second, we introduce government finance into the production function, and we introduce an income tax to mirror the fiscal events of the 1980¿s and 1990¿s in the US. The fact that the non-scale model is associated with higher order dynamics enables it to replicate the distinctly non-linear nature of inequality in the US with relative ease. The results derived in this paper attract attention to the fact that the non-scale growth model does not only fit the US data well for the long-run (Jones, 1995b) but also that it possesses unique abilities in explaining short term fluctuations of the economy. It is shown that during transition the response of the relative simulated wage to changes in the tax code is rather non-monotonic, quite in accordance to the US inequality pattern in the 1980¿s and early 1990¿s.More specifically, we have analyzed in detail the dynamics following the simulation of an isolated tax decrease and an isolated tax increase. So, after a tax decrease the skill premium follows a lower trajectory than the one it would follow without a tax decrease. Hence we are able to reduce inequality for several periods after the fiscal shock. On the contrary, following a tax increase, the evolution of the skill premium remains above the trajectory carried on by the skill premium under a situation with no tax increase. Consequently, a tax increase would imply a higher level of inequality in the economy

Development of an Fn14 agonistic antibody as an anti-tumor agent.

TWEAK, a TNF family ligand with pleiotropic cellular functions, was originally described as capable of inducing tumor cell death in vitro. TWEAK functions by binding its receptor, Fn14, which is up-regulated on many human solid tumors. Herein, we show that intratumoral administration of TWEAK, delivered either by an adenoviral vector or in an immunoglobulin Fc-fusion form, results in significant inhibition of tumor growth in a breast xenograft model. To exploit the TWEAK-Fn14 pathway as a therapeutic target in oncology, we developed an anti-Fn14 agonistic antibody, BIIB036. Studies described herein show that BIIB036 binds specifically to Fn14 but not other members of the TNF receptor family, induces Fn14 signaling, and promotes tumor cell apoptosis in vitro. In vivo, BIIB036 effectively inhibits growth of tumors in multiple xenograft models, including colon (WiDr), breast (MDA-MB-231), and gastric (NCI-N87) tumors, regardless of tumor cell growth inhibition response observed to BIIB036 in vitro. The anti-tumor activity in these cell lines is not TNF-dependent. Increasing the antigen-binding valency of BIB036 significantly enhances its anti-tumor effect, suggesting the contribution of higher order cross-linking of the Fn14 receptor. Full Fc effector function is required for maximal activity of BIIB036 in vivo, likely due to the cross-linking effect and/or ADCC mediated tumor killing activity. Taken together, the anti-tumor properties of BIIB036 validate Fn14 as a promising target in oncology and demonstrate its potential therapeutic utility in multiple solid tumor indications.

Signatures of CP violation in the presence of multiple b-pair production at hadron colliders

We calculate the production of two b-quark pairs in hadron collisions. Sources of multiple pairs are multiple interactions and higher order perturbative QCD mechanisms. We subsequently investigate the competing effects of multiple b-pair production on measurements of CP violation: (i) the increase in event rate with multiple b-pair cross sections which may reach values of the order of 1 b in the presence of multiple interactions and (ii) the dilution of b versus b tagging efficiency because of the presence of events with four B mesons. The impact of multiple B-meson production is small unless the cross section for producing a single pair exceeds 1 mb. We show that even for larger values of the cross section the competing effects (i) and (ii) roughly compensate so that there is no loss in the precision with which CP-violating CKM angles can be determined.

MSSM Higgs boson decays to bottom quark pairs reexamined

We present an update of neutral Higgs boson decays into bottom quark pairs in the minimal supersymmetric extension of the standard model. In particular the resummation of potentially large higher-order corrections due to the soft supersymmetry (SUSY) breaking parameters Ab and is extended. The remaining theoretical uncertainties due to unknown higher-order SUSY-QCD corrections are analyzed quantitatively.

Fibrous P.C. Concrete Overlay Research Green County, Iowa, December 1978

The Greene County, Iowa overlay project, completed in October 1973, was inspected on October 16 & 17, 1978 After five years of service The 33 fibrous concrete sections, four CRCP sections, two mesh reinforced and two plain concrete sections with doweled reinforcement were rated relative to each other on a scale of 0 t o 100. The rating was conducted by the original members of the Project Planning Committee, Iowa DOT, Iowa Counties, Federal Highway Administration, University of Illinois and industry representatives . In all , there were 23 representatives who rated this project . The 23 values were then averaged to provide a final rating number for each section. The highest panel rating (90) was assigned to the 5-inch thick , deformed barre in forced PCC sections ; an 86t o a 3-inch thick , 160 lbs. of fiber and 600 lbs . of cement on a partial bonded surface ; an 84 to the 4-inch CRC with elastic joints (bonded) and an 84 to a 4-inch mesh reinforce section. One of the major factors influencing performance appears t o be the thickness. In the fibrous concrete overlay, The greatest influences appears t o be the fiber content. Overlay Sections containing 160 1b/yd3 of Fiber are, in almost all cases , outperforming those c o n t a i n i n g 60 or 100. It is obvious at This time meth at the 3-inch thick fibrous concrete overlays are, in general, out performing the 2-inch thick sections. The performance of the fibrous concrete the overlay appears to be favorably influenced by: (1) The use of higher a spectra fiber (0.025 x 2.5 i n c h e s ) v e r s u s (0.010 x 0.022 x 1.0 inches) (2) The use of a lower cement c o n t e n t ( 600 versus 750 1b/yd3) However, The set less well defined and the improvements in overlay performance attributed to high aspect ratio fibers and low cement contents.