Estimating Bayesian decision problems with heterogeneous priors

In many areas of economics there is a growing interest in how expertise andpreferences drive individual and group decision making under uncertainty. Increasingly, we wish to estimate such models to quantify which of these drive decisionmaking. In this paper we propose a new channel through which we can empirically identify expertise and preference parameters by using variation in decisionsover heterogeneous priors. Relative to existing estimation approaches, our \Prior-Based Identification" extends the possible environments which can be estimated,and also substantially improves the accuracy and precision of estimates in thoseenvironments which can be estimated using existing methods.

Heterogeneous life-cycle profiles, income risk and consumption inequality

Was the increase in income inequality in the US due to permanent shocks or merely to an increase in the variance of transitory shocks? The implications for consumption and welfare depend crucially on the answer to this question. We use CEX repeated cross-section data on consumption and income to decompose idiosyncratic changes in income into predictable life-cycle changes, transitory and permanent shocks and estimate the contribution of each to total inequality. Our model fits the joint evolution of consumption and income inequality well and delivers two main results. First, we find that permanent changes in income explain all of the increase in inequality in the 1980s and 90s. Second, we reconcile this finding with the fact that consumption inequality did not increase much over this period. Our results support the view that many permanent changes in income are predictable for consumers, even if they look unpredictable to the econometrician, consistent withmodels of heterogeneous income profiles.

Unravelling the enigmatic origin of calcitic nanofibres in soils and caves: purely physicochemical or biogenic processes?

Calcitic nanofibres are ubiquitous habits of sec- ondary calcium carbonate (CaCO3 ) accumulations observed in calcareous vadose environments. Despite their widespread occurrence, the origin of these nanofeatures remains enig- matic. Three possible mechanisms fuel the debate: (i) purely physicochemical processes, (ii) mineralization of rod-shaped bacteria, and (iii) crystal precipitation on organic templates. Nanofibres can be either mineral (calcitic) or organic in na- ture. They are very often observed in association with needle fibre calcite (NFC), another typical secondary CaCO3 habit in terrestrial environments. This association has contributed to some confusion between both habits, however they are truly two distinct calcitic features and their recurrent asso- ciation is likely to be an important fact to help understanding the origin of nanofibres. In this paper the different hypotheses that currently exist to explain the origin of calcitic nanofibres are critically reviewed. In addition to this, a new hypothe- sis for the origin of nanofibres is proposed based on the fact that current knowledge attributes a fungal origin to NFC. As this feature and nanofibres are recurrently observed together, a possible fungal origin for nanofibres which are associated with NFC is investigated. Sequential enzymatic digestion of the fungal cell wall of selected fungal species demonstrates that the fungal cell wall can be a source of organic nanofibres. The obtained organic nanofibres show a striking morpho- logical resemblance when compared to their natural coun- terparts, emphasizing a fungal origin for part of the organic nanofibres observed in association with NFC. It is further hy- pothesized that these organic nanofibres may act as templates for calcite nucleation in a biologically influenced mineraliza- tion process, generating calcitic nanofibres. This highlights the possible involvement of fungi in CaCO3 biomineraliza- tion processes, a role still poorly documented. Moreover, on a global scale, the organomineralization of organic nanofi- bres into calcitic nanofibres might be an overlooked process deserving more attention to specify its impact on the biogeo- chemical cycles of both Ca and C.

Overconfidence and market efficiency with heterogeneous agents

We study financial markets in which both rational and overconfident agents coexist and make endogenous information acquisition decisions. We demonstrate the following irrelevance result: when a positive fraction of rational agents (endogeneously) decides to become informed in equilibrium, prices are set as if all investors were rational, and as a consequence the overconfidence bias does not aect informational efficiency, price volatility, rational traders expected profits or their welfare. Intuitively, as overconfidence goes up, so does price infornativeness, which makes rational agents cut their information acquisition activities, effectively undoing the standard effect of more aggressive trading by the overconfident.

Solving heterogeneous-agent models by projection and perturbation

The paper proposes a numerical solution method for general equilibrium models with a continuum of heterogeneous agents, which combines elements of projection and of perturbation methods. The basic idea is to solve first for the stationary solutionof the model, without aggregate shocks but with fully specified idiosyncratic shocks. Afterwards one computes a first-order perturbation of the solution in the aggregate shocks. This approach allows to include a high-dimensional representation of the cross-sectional distribution in the state vector. The method is applied to a model of household saving with uninsurable income risk and liquidity constraints. The model includes not only productivity shocks, but also shocks to redistributive taxation, which cause substantial short-run variation in the cross-sectional distribution of wealth. If those shocks are operative, it is shown that a solution method based on very few statistics of the distribution is not suitable, while the proposed method can solve the model with high accuracy, at least for the case of small aggregate shocks. Techniques are discussed to reduce the dimension of the state space such that higher order perturbations are feasible.Matlab programs to solve the model can be downloaded.

Evolution in heterogeneous populations: from migration models to fixation probabilities.

Although dispersal is recognized as a key issue in several fields of population biology (such as behavioral ecology, population genetics, metapopulation dynamics or evolutionary modeling), these disciplines focus on different aspects of the concept and often make different implicit assumptions regarding migration models. Using simulations, we investigate how such assumptions translate into effective gene flow and fixation probability of selected alleles. Assumptions regarding migration type (e.g. source-sink, resident pre-emption, or balanced dispersal) and patterns (e.g. stepping-stone versus island dispersal) have large impacts when demes differ in sizes or selective pressures. The effects of fragmentation, as well as the spatial localization of newly arising mutations, also strongly depend on migration type and patterns. Migration rate also matters: depending on the migration type, fixation probabilities at an intermediate migration rate may lie outside the range defined by the low- and high-migration limits when demes differ in sizes. Given the extreme sensitivity of fixation probability to characteristics of dispersal, we underline the importance of making explicit (and documenting empirically) the crucial ecological/ behavioral assumptions underlying migration models.

Uranium-enrichment in soils and plants in the vicinity of a pitchblende vein at La Creusaz-Les Marecottes (W of Martigny, Valais, Switzerland)

In the NE part of the Aiguilles Rouges Massif near Martigny, at the eastern contact of the Variscan Vallorcine granite to adjacent gneisses, a series of pitchblende (UO2)-veins occur. This paper determines the level of enrichment and mobility of uranium in soils situated in the vicinity of such a UO2-vein 7 km west of Martigny. Within an area of 50 x 100 m, situated on a relatively steep slope and characterized by a strong gramma-ray anomaly, six soil profiles including their plant cover and a reference soil profile outside the influence of the UO2-vein have been examined. The soil shows pH-values between 4 and 5 and is colluvial. The applied analytical methods for the metal contents include extraction methods, common for soil studies, and bulk analysis performed with X-ray fluorescence and ICP-MS. Uranium contents found in the uppermost 20 cm of the soil profiles vary from 2,500 ppm close to the vein to 15 ppm at the lowermost point of the study area. The reference soil has around 3 ppm uranium. At greater depth (20 to 40 cm) the U-content decreases to about half of the surface values, indicating a vertical transport of uranium within the soil profile. No systematic dependance of uranium-contents to grain size (amount of clay) nor to the amount of organic matter has been found. However, the good correlation between uranium and free iron oxide concentration suggests adsorption of uranium on iron oxy-hydroxides. The ashes of grass and mosses contain up to 90 ppm U, the blueberry and redwood only up to 3 ppm. Our observations suggest that at the surface the uranium is transported by downhill creep (solifluxion) of uranium-rich rock fragments. Liberated by oxidation of the uppermost fragments in a given soil column, the uranium migrates vertically until the conditions are favourable to adsorption onto Fe-oxy-hydroxides. However, as high U-contents of local surface water show, this adsorption does not lead to a significant retention of the uranium.

Quantitative comparison of simulations of seismic wave propagation in heterogeneous poro-elastic media involving fluid-solid interfaces and in equivalent visco-elastic solids

There is increasing evidence to suggest that the presence of mesoscopic heterogeneities constitutes the predominant attenuation mechanism at seismic frequencies. As a consequence, centimeter-scale perturbations of the subsurface physical properties should be taken into account for seismic modeling whenever detailed and accurate responses of the target structures are desired. This is, however, computationally prohibitive since extremely small grid spacings would be necessary. A convenient way to circumvent this problem is to use an upscaling procedure to replace the heterogeneous porous media by equivalent visco-elastic solids. In this work, we solve Biot's equations of motion to perform numerical simulations of seismic wave propagation through porous media containing mesoscopic heterogeneities. We then use an upscaling procedure to replace the heterogeneous poro-elastic regions by homogeneous equivalent visco-elastic solids and repeat the simulations using visco-elastic equations of motion. We find that, despite the equivalent attenuation behavior of the heterogeneous poro-elastic medium and the equivalent visco-elastic solid, the seismograms may differ due to diverging boundary conditions at fluid-solid interfaces, where there exist additional options for the poro-elastic case. In particular, we observe that the seismograms agree for closed-pore boundary conditions, but differ significantly for open-pore boundary conditions. This is an interesting result, which has potentially important implications for wave-equation-based algorithms in exploration geophysics involving fluid-solid interfaces, such as, for example, wave field decomposition.

Measuring mechanical impedance in clayey gravelly soils

Mechanical impedance of clayey and gravelly soils is often needed to interpret experimental results from tillage and other field experiments. Its measurement is difficult with manual and hydraulic penetrometers, which often bend or break in such soils. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of a hand-operated "Stolf" impact penetrometer to measure mechanical impedance (soil resistance). The research was conducted in Raleigh, North Carolina, USA (35º 45'N, 78º 42'W, elevation 75 m). Corn was planted on April 19, 1991. Penetrometer measurements were taken on May 10, 1991, in 5 cm intervals to 60 cm at 33 locations on a transect perpendicular to the corn rows in each of four tillage treatments. The data permitted three-dimensional displays showing how mechanical impedance changed with depth and distance along the transect. The impact penetrometer proved to be a useful tool to collect quantitative mechanical impedance data on "hard" clayey and/or gravelly soils which previously were difficult to reliably quantify.

Learning and adaptation in physical heterogeneous teams of robots

In this paper we present a novel approach to assigning roles to robots in a team of physical heterogeneous robots. Its members compete for these roles and get rewards for them. The rewards are used to determine each agent’s preferences and which agents are better adapted to the environment. These aspects are included in the decision making process. Agent interactions are modelled using the concept of an ecosystem in which each robot is a species, resulting in emergent behaviour of the whole set of agents. One of the most important features of this approach is its high adaptability. Unlike some other learning techniques, this approach does not need to start a whole exploitation process when the environment changes. All this is exemplified by means of experiments run on a simulator. In addition, the algorithm developed was applied as applied to several teams of robots in order to analyse the impact of heterogeneity in these systems

Nitrogen fractions in the microbial biomass in soils of southern Brazil

The reaction of nitrogen compounds with ninhydrin can be used as an indicator of cytoplasmic materials released from microbial cells killed by fumigation. Total-N, ninhydrin-reactive-N (NR-N), ammonium-N (A-N), and α-amino-N in the microbial biomass of soils from the State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, were determined, in 1996, in 0.5 mol L-1 K2SO4 extracts of fumigated and non-fumigated soils. Total-N varied from 20.3 to 104.4 mg kg-1 and the ninhydrin-reactive-N corresponded, in average, to 27% of this. The ninhydrin-reactive-N was made up of 67% ammonium-N and 33% aminoacids with the amino group at the α-carbon position. It was concluded that colorimetric analysis of NR-N and A-N may be used as a direct measure of microbial N in soil. This simple and rapid procedure is adequate for routine analyses.

Calibration of time domain reflectometry (DTR) for soil moisture measurements in cultivated peat soils

Tiivistelmä: TDR-mittausten kalibrointi viljeltyjen turvemaiden kosteuden mittaamiseen

Iron oxides in plinthic soils on sedimentary deposits in northeastern Brazil

This study was conducted to examine the distribution and nature of Fe oxides in plinthic soils on the sediments of Barreiras Group (in the state of Piauí) and Itapecuru Formation (in the state of Maranhão) in Northeastern Brazil. Four pedons were selected: a "plinthic, dystrophic, epieutrophic Gray Podzolic with low activity clay" and a "dystrophic Plinthosol with low activity clay" (both Plinthic Kandiustalfs) on the Barreiras sediments, as well as an "eutrophic Plinthosol with low activity clay" and an "allic Plinthosol with low activity clay" (both Plinthustalfs) on the Itapecuru sediments. Soil samples were fractionated into > 2 mm (pisoliths), water-stable aggregates (plinthite) and matrices; the aggregates and matrices were further fractionated into sand, silt and clay sizes. Dithionite extractable iron (Fe d) and aluminum (Al d), as well as oxalate extractable iron (Fe o), were determined for all fractions, and X-ray diffraction analyses were performed on the pisoliths. It was observed that the Plinthustalfs contain more iron oxides, exhibit more extensive plinthite development and have a greater potential for further plinthite development than the Kandiustalfs. The distribution of values for the Fe d indicates that plinthite formation and induration in all soils were accompanied by an enrichment of Fe oxides in all particle size fractions. This Fe segregation was accompanied by aggregation of particles leading to a greater degree of crystallinity, as indicated by analysis of the ratios of Al d:Fe d. Larger ratios of goethite to hematite, and relatively smaller amounts of silicates in the more mature pisoliths were revealed by X-ray diffraction analysis. Ratios of Al d:Fe d were larger in the Kandiustalfs than in the Plinthustalfs, and also larger than expected for Al-substituted Fe oxides. According to ratios of Al d:Fe d, Fe mobilization in all soils has likely occurred under reducing conditions, facilitated by organic matter on the soil surface.