Sete motivações teóricas para o uso da modelagem baseada no indivíduo em ecologia

A modelagem baseada no indivíduo tem sido crescentemente empregada para analisar processos ecológicos, desenvolver e avaliar teorias, bem como para fins de manejo da vida silvestre e conservação. Os modelos baseados no indivíduo (MBI) são bastante flexíveis, permitem o uso detalhado de parâmetros com maior significado biológico, sendo portanto mais realistas do que modelos populacionais clássicos, mais presos dentro de um rígido formalismo matemático. O presente artigo apresenta e discute sete razões para a adoção dos MBI em estudos de simulação na Ecologia: (1) a inerente complexidade de sistemas ecológicos, impassíveis de uma análise matemática formal; (2) processos populacionais são fenômenos emergentes, resultando das interações entre seus elementos constituintes (indivíduos) e destes com o meio; (3) poder de predição; (4) a adoção definitiva, por parte da Ecologia, de uma visão evolutiva; (5) indivíduos são entidades discretas; (6) interações são localizadas no espaço e (7) indivíduos diferem entre si.

Thermophysical Properties of Industrial Sugar Cane Juices for the Production of Bioethanol

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Thermophysical Properties of Lemon Juice as Affected by Temperature and Water Content

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A comparison of global estimates of marine primary production from ocean color

The third primary production algorithm round robin (PPARR3) compares output from 24 models that estimate depth-integrated primary production from satellite measurements of ocean color, as well as seven general circulation models (GCMs) coupled with ecosystem or biogeochemical models. Here we compare the global primary production fields corresponding to eight months of 1998 and 1999 as estimated from common input fields of photosynthetically-available radiation (PAR), sea-surface temperature (SST), mixed-layer depth, and chlorophyll concentration. We also quantify the sensitivity of the ocean-color-based models to perturbations in their input variables. The pair-wise correlation between ocean-color models was used to cluster them into groups or related output, which reflect the regions and environmental conditions under which they respond differently. The groups do not follow model complexity with regards to wavelength or depth dependence, though they are related to the manner in which temperature is used to parameterize photosynthesis. Global average PP varies by a factor of two between models. The models diverged the most for the Southern Ocean, SST under 10 degrees C, and chlorophyll concentration exceeding 1 mg Chlm(-3). Based on the conditions under which the model results diverge most, we conclude that current ocean-color-based models are challenged by high-nutrient low-chlorophyll conditions, and extreme temperatures or chlorophyll concentrations. The GCM-based models predict comparable primary production to those based on ocean color: they estimate higher values in the Southern Ocean, at low SST, and in the equatorial band, while they estimate lower values in eutrophic regions (probably because the area of high chlorophyll concentrations is smaller in the GCMs). Further progress in primary production modeling requires improved understanding of the effect of temperature on photosynthesis and better parameterization of the maximum photosynthetic rate. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Increased corticosterone levels in mice subjected to the rat exposure test

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Assessing the uncertainties of model estimates of primary productivity in the tropical Pacific Ocean

Depth-integrated primary productivity (PP) estimates obtained from satellite ocean color-based models (SatPPMs) and those generated from biogeochemical ocean general circulation models (BCGCMs) represent a key resource for biogeochemical and ecological studies at global as well as regional scales. Calibration and validation of these PP models are not straightforward, however, and comparative studies show large differences between model estimates. The goal of this paper is to compare PP estimates obtained from 30 different models (21 SatPPMs and 9 BOGCMs) to a tropical Pacific PP database consisting of similar to 1000 C-14 measurements spanning more than a decade (1983-1996). Primary findings include: skill varied significantly between models, but performance was not a function of model complexity or type (i.e. SatPPM vs. BOGCM); nearly all models underestimated the observed variance of PR specifically yielding too few low PP (< 0.2 g Cm-2 d(-1)) values; more than half of the total root-mean-squared model-data differences associated with the satellite-based PP models might be accounted for by uncertainties in the input variables and/or the PP data; and the tropical Pacific database captures a broad scale shift from low biomassnormalized productivity in the 1980s to higher biomass-normalized productivity in the 1990s, which was not successfully captured by any of the models. This latter result suggests that interdecadal and global changes will be a significant challenge for both SatPPMs and BOGCMs. Finally, average root-mean-squared differences between in situ PP data on the equator at 140 degrees W and PP estimates from the satellite-based productivity models were 58% lower than analogous values computed in a previous PP model comparison 6 years ago. The success of these types of comparison exercises is illustrated by the continual modification and improvement of the participating models and the resulting increase in model skill. (C) 2008 Elsevier BY. All rights reserved.

Determination of resonant frequencies of triangular and rectangular microstrip antennas, using artificial neural networks

This paper presents models that can be used in the design of microstrip antennas for mobile communications. The antennas can be triangular or rectangular. The presented models are compared with deterministic and empirical models based on artificial neural networks (ANN) presented in the literature. The models are based on Perceptron Multilayer (PML) and Radial Basis Function (RBF) ANN. RBF based models presented the best results. Also, the models can be embedded in CAD systems, in order to design microstrip antennas for mobile communications.

Fostering economic policy coordination in Latin America: the REDIMA approach to escaping the prisoner's dilemma

Includes bibliography

Spatial electric load forecasting using a local movement approach

An agent based model for spatial electric load forecasting using a local movement approach for the spatiotemporal allocation of the new loads in the service zone is presented. The density of electrical load for each of the major consumer classes in each sub-zone is used as the current state of the agents. The spatial growth is simulated with a walking agent who starts his path in one of the activity centers of the city and goes to the limits of the city following a radial path depending on the different load levels. A series of update rules are established to simulate the S growth behavior and the complementarity between classes. The results are presented in future load density maps. The tests in a real system from a mid-size city show a high rate of success when compared with other techniques. The most important features of this methodology are the need for few data and the simplicity of the algorithm, allowing for future scalability. © 2009 IEEE.

Assembling a xylanase-lichenase chimera through all-atom molecular dynamics simulations

Multifunctional enzyme engineering can improve enzyme cocktails for emerging biofuel technology. Molecular dynamics through structure-based models (SB) is an effective tool for assessing the tridimensional arrangement of chimeric enzymes as well as for inferring the functional practicability before experimental validation. This study describes the computational design of a bifunctional xylanase-lichenase chimera (XylLich) using the xynA and bglS genes from Bacillus subtilis. In silico analysis of the average solvent accessible surface area (SAS) and the root mean square fluctuation (RMSF) predicted a fully functional chimera, with minor fluctuations and variations along the polypeptide chains. Afterwards, the chimeric enzyme was built by fusing the xynA and bglS genes. XylLich was evaluated through small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) experiments, resulting in scattering curves with a very accurate fit to the theoretical protein model. The chimera preserved the biochemical characteristics of the parental enzymes, with the exception of a slight variation in the temperature of operation and the catalytic efficiency (k cat/Km). The absence of substantial shifts in the catalytic mode of operation was also verified. Furthermore, the production of chimeric enzymes could be more profitable than producing a single enzyme separately, based on comparing the recombinant protein production yield and the hydrolytic activity achieved for XylLich with that of the parental enzymes. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Finanças comportamentais e modelos baseados em agentes

Pós-graduação em Economia - FCLAR

A new probabilistic canopy dynamics model (SLCD) that is suitable for evergreen and deciduous forest ecosystems

There are strong uncertainties regarding LAI dynamics in forest ecosystems in response to climate change. While empirical growth & yield models (G&YMs) provide good estimations of tree growth at the stand level on a yearly to decennial scale, process-based models (PBMs) use LAI dynamics as a key variable for enabling the accurate prediction of tree growth over short time scales. Bridging the gap between PBMs and G&YMs could improve the prediction of forest growth and, therefore, carbon, water and nutrient fluxes by combining modeling approaches at the stand level.Our study aimed to estimate monthly changes of leaf area in response to climate variations from sparse measurements of foliage area and biomass. A leaf population probabilistic model (SLCD) was designed to simulate foliage renewal. The leaf population was distributed in monthly cohorts, and the total population size was limited depending on forest age and productivity. Foliage dynamics were driven by a foliation function and the probabilities ruling leaf aging or fall. Their formulation depends on the forest environment.The model was applied to three tree species growing under contrasting climates and soil types. In tropical Brazilian evergreen broadleaf eucalypt plantations, the phenology was described using 8 parameters. A multi-objective evolutionary algorithm method (MOEA) was used to fit the model parameters on litterfall and LAI data over an entire stand rotation. Field measurements from a second eucalypt stand were used to validate the model. Seasonal LAI changes were accurately rendered for both sites (R-2 = 0.898 adjustment, R-2 = 0.698 validation). Litterfall production was correctly simulated (R-2 = 0.562, R-2 = 0.4018 validation) and may be improved by using additional validation data in future work. In two French temperate deciduous forests (beech and oak), we adapted phenological sub-modules of the CASTANEA model to simulate canopy dynamics, and SLCD was validated using LAI measurements. The phenological patterns were simulated with good accuracy in the two cases studied. However, IA/max was not accurately simulated in the beech forest, and further improvement is required.Our probabilistic approach is expected to contribute to improving predictions of LAI dynamics. The model formalism is general and suitable to broadleaf forests for a large range of ecological conditions. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Análise dos indicadores biométricos e nutricionais da cultura da alface (Lactuca sativa L.) irrigada com água tratada magneticamente utilizando modelagem fuzzy

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Irrigação e Drenagem) - FCA

Comparação de metodologias na definição de fluxos acumulados a partir de modelos digitais de elevação do terreno aplicado a suscetibilidade de inundações

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

The globular cluster kinematics and galaxy dark matter content of NGC 3923

This paper presents further results from our spectroscopic study of the globular cluster (GC) system of the group elliptical NGC 3923. From observations made with the GMOS instrument on the Gemini South Telescope, an additional 50 GC and ultra-compact dwarf (UCD) candidates have been spectroscopically confirmed as members of the NGC 3923 system. When the recessional velocities of these GCs are combined with the 29 GC velocities reported previously, a total sample of 79 GC/UCD velocities is produced. This sample extends to over 6 arcmin (>6 R-e similar to 30 kpc) from the centre of NGC 3923 and is used to study the dynamics of the GC system and the dark matter content of NGC 3923. It is found that the GC system of NGC 3923 displays no appreciable rotation, and that the projected velocity dispersion is constant with radius within the uncertainties. The velocity dispersion profiles of the integrated light and GC system of NGC 3923 are indistinguishable over the region in which they overlap. We find some evidence that the diffuse light and GCs of NGC 3923 have radially biased orbits within similar to 130 arcsec. The application of axisymmetric orbit-based models to the GC and integrated light velocity dispersion profiles demonstrates that a significant increase in the mass-to-light ratio (from M/L-V = 8 to 26) at large galactocentric radii is required to explain this observation. We therefore confirm the presence of a dark matter halo in NGC 3923. We find that dark matter comprises 17.5(-4.5)(+7.3) per cent of the mass within 1 R-e, 41.2(-10.6)(+18.2) per cent within 2 R-e and 75.6(-16.8)(+15.4) per cent within the radius of our last kinematic tracer at 6.9 R-e. The total dynamical mass within this radius is found to be 1.5(-0.25)(+0.4) x 10(12) M-circle dot. In common with other studies of large ellipticals, we find that our derived dynamical mass profile is consistently higher than that derived by X-ray observations, by a factor of around 2.